Friday, September 16, 2005

Erich's Update for Thursday, September 15, 2005

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Market Update for Thursday, September 15, 2005
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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The Aussie did head higher today, but on a gap which makes for less predictable trading. Think I'll still keep this one on the back burner for now.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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A crazy *fade* type day in the Pound today as prices opened high and moved against the opening gap. I have no idea what to expect from this market right now, so we'll just watch.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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Not a stellar day for the CD, but we are getting close to another RSI testpoint which could signal a new buying/selling opportunity. It might need another day (or two) to get there though.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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The Euro never got high enough to find our entry order today which was a good thing as the day wasn't very strong. The trendline is holding which would suggest that rates will continue higher, so I'll run the trade again tomorrow.

*BUY December EuroFX at 124.17
*Stop 123.73
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $550 per contract
*Profit Target: 127.17
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3750 per contract
*RRR: 6 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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Gap 'n fade, that's my new nickname for the Yen as that's all this market seems to do. Still watching tomorrow.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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Definite divergence in the Peso as rates are falling off but RSI is heading higher. This is a sign of instability, which would suggest that we could see a hiccup very soon. Bring stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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Not a good day in the Franc as the market broke resistance twice before succumbing and falling to support - whipsawing our trade in the process.

I'm not too happy with this market right now as I think we had the right idea, but got in too early. Nothing new tomorrow.
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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This trade looked so good on the surface, only to do the same thing the Swissy did to us, but in reverse. Here the market broke support twice today before backing up and stopping us out of our trade.
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Unleaded bounced slightly today but not quite enough to get me buying tomorrow. I know that a continued bounce looks likely, but still apprehensive.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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I said I would regret not buying/selling today, and I do as heating oil prices had a very strong, predictable session. Nice to know the ole hindsight is still 20/20.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude also rallied strongly along with heating oil today. I knew I should have gotten more serious when the market showed us support, but with a market like crude you can never be too sure.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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Another market showing us a gap 'n fade type of day. There must have been something in the air as a lot of market's responded this way today. I'll run the buy again tomorrow, but with the hook in RSI lower rates are looking more likely.

*BUY June Eurodollar at 95.835
*Stop 95.775
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 96.055
*Approximate Profit Potential: $550 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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The Dow continued lower today as expected. It was a rather strong day, which was not expected however. We might see the market show us some support as we're trading near the 10570 line.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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Nice day for the NAS bears as the market fell quickly to the 1600 support line. There is some support here that caused a previous reversal, so we might see the NAS hold up here tomorrow as well.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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As usual the S&P outdid the other indices in how far it dropped off today. We now find the market also near support at 1230 which could hold it up tomorrow.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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I'd like to sell corn tomorrow; however I'm a little hesitant with the oversold situation in the market. While prices don't have to reverse from an oversold market, it is more likely to find support when it's down here.
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December Oats OZ5
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A big opening gap in Oats this morning as prices faded the open here as well. If you waited for opening range to expire you would have avoided the whipsaw as price never got above 158's resistance again.
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November Rice RRX5
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The Rice bounce continues and we continue to look for the market to show us resistance. First target is 680, just above the market, followed by stronger resistance at 690.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Caught a break in the soy markets as price moved away from our exit stops today. There is enough room to bring stops in above yesterday's high to take a little risk out of the trade for tomorrow.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil made a run at our stops today, but couldn't find them. I'm not too happy with the high closing price, especially with stops above the 2260 line. With a little luck we'll se a reversal from here tomorrow.
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November Soybean SX5
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Still holding our own in the big Bean market, but I'd really like to see the bears step up and take this market lower already. Each day we spend in limbo is another chance for the market to stop us out.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Serves me right. This is why I don't trade a market the day after a loss - something's too unpredictable about it. Well I learned my lesson. No trade in wheat tomorrow.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Feeder's are still holding support, but just barely. It does look like prices should fall off tomorrow, especially with the RSI hook, but we'll seel.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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A similar day in cattle as prices went hunting for stops - and given the range I think they found a few! Probably will see lower prices tomorrow.
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Big reversal to support today. If you didn't take profits yesterday then you would have had no choice in the matter today.
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Copper continues to flirt with the price trendline today. I was looking to buy copper long, but this are pretty crazy prices we're trading at...I think I'll leave it alone tomorrow.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Here we are again at our RSI testpoint for tomorrow. I'd like to see a bounce and prices head lower, but we're not in the prediction biz so we'll let the market decide. If it's a small day we can set up another channel trype trade very soon.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Silver held support today and traded higher. I'm not sure what to expect from this market but RSI has broken the trendline, so higher prices might be the result.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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No bounce from cocoa as prices went all the way to 1420's support. This is a very important resistance line for the bulls, and if they don't pull it together here then we'll be in a bear market.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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How do you make coffee rally? Threaten to sell it! Big day for coffee as prices rallied right fromt the open. If this continues tomorrow we should see another RSI test and a another chance to sell.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton held support at 4950-ish today. We should be looking to sell a break of support, but I'm going to wit antoher day - I think cotton's heading higher.
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November OJ OJX5
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Nice session for our OJ trade as prices never dipped any lower and made nice gains to the upside. RSI is hooking a bit, so if you want to protect profits this is the time to bring the stops up tight. If you're trying to let the trade run, place stops below today's low.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Here we go again...sugar looks like it's stalled and it might be a good time to sell (I still think this market's top-heavy), but I'll resist the temptation to go against the trend.

"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, September 14, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, September 14, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=5-30 HI=6-20 LO=5-30 CL=6-10

We bought 116-03 on the early rally. Predictably if you've followed my theory about -00 and -16, it failed just shy of -16 at -13. Say what you will, it was not a failure of -13 it WAS a failure of -16. I'm out at -11 for 8 ticks, $250. Look at what happened next ... bam, bam, bam, bam ... 5 attempts to break back below -08 without success. What do think we should do? Why, buy -08 of course. I bought 116-09 and exited at -15 as it failed at -16 again for 7 more, $218. This time the failure was about the same distance above -16 as was the earlier short fall failure at -13. Hmmmm. Funny how that works, isn't it?

I sold at -14 and was stopped out at -15. I had the stop at -17 but cancel replaced it because the message was pretty clear after 25 minutes. Sold -14 a second time, which I exited at -08 for 6 more, $187.

The close at 116-10 has us watching for opportunities at 116-16 or 116-00 with a second tier interest in -08. May we do as well as today.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.785 HI=.845 LO=.780 CL=.825

They got us. Stopped out at 95.805 for a $287 gain. What I never get tired of seeing is how technical this market is, how respectful of S&R it is. Just look where we settled today. 95.825. Does that sound familiar to anyone?

If we get a failure of .825 tomorrow, I will sell it with a stop at .835. I am going to forego buying until 95.850 is broken.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=40 HI=84 LO=39 CL=77

I'll stay with the numbers from TT with one addition. 8440 is a bit light in the strength dept. but I will give it a go tomorrow only by selling a break back below that level. They gave us nothing today.
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4: SEPTEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFU5 O=34 HI=38 LO=20 CL=27

We didn't need to worry about the added numbers either as the Swiss did another gap down open. Made mincemeat of my look for a bounce back toward 8000, didn't it?

eWe move on, or in this case, downward. We closed at 7927, I'll sell a break below 7920 with a 27 stop and a 5 move to B/E. We'll look at 7850 as target. I'll also play if they give us a bounce back to 7950 by selling the failure there with a stop at 7957 and a B/E roll at 7943 or so.
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=3.30 HI=3.30 LO=5.30 CL=7.80

I sold 681.50 and exited at 679.10 ... yes, "once broken theory". We took 'em for $240. I then sold 679.70 which I exited at 676.20 for $350. Next, we bought 676.60 and bailed at 677.80 hanging on to $120 of our accumulated profit. I could've manged this one better than I did. In retrospect I think there were some signs that had I read them better I should have been gone by about 678.30 or 40. See if you can see 'em. I bought 680.40 and bailed at 680.80 ... thank you "OBT". Next up, a sell at 679.80 and an exit at ... all together now ... 677.10, for $270. Done for the day with a total of $970.

I have neither fundamental nor technical support for the following theory but I believe with all my heart and soul that thousand dollar days are way cool. Cool as Clarence "Gatemouth" Brown ... and he was the coolest of the cool. Sadly "Gate" passed way Saturday of a broken heart in Texas, where he was born 81 years ago. One of the all-time. all-time great musicians who transcended blues, jazz and country ... if you ever heard him play anything you'd never ever forget the unique sound ... "Gate" lived for many years in Slidell, LA. just outside New Orleans. He was evacuated by family and taken to his brother's home in Orange, Texas. His home in Slidell was destroyed by Katrina. It broke his heart. God speed, Clarence.

No new numbers.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=2.40 HI=3.40 LO=8.30 CL=0.00

It was only a matter of time ...Sold 452.60. on the break of 453. We rode it to an exit at 449.00 for $360. I feel better. $10 gold channel for tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.71 HI=.85 LO=.55 CL=.80

I bought 50.60 and bailed at 50.40 losing $100. Same numbers from TT again tomorrow. I will also buy a failed retest at 49.50 as it turns and heads north. The stop is 49.37.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=76 HI=82 LO=40 CL=45

Big weakness. Tomorrow I'll play 1438 buying a retest that fails to punch lower as it turns north. I will also sell abreak below. Stops are 1433 and 1443 respectively.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.10 1/4 HI=2.10 1/2 LO=2.08 1/2 CL=2.10

Ditto ... Yikes ... dead long walking. There is nothing to do until the structure builds or we return to 2.16 1/2 where I will buy.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.20 HI=3.29 LO=3.18 CL=3.26 1/2

I bought 3.26 1/2 and bailed at 3.28 1/2. We left some on the table. Same TT numbers for tomorrow plus we'll play 3.30 either way. Penny and a quarter, stops and rolls. Scalp for now.

Erich's Update for Wednesday, September 14, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, September 14, 2005
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"Anyone who stops learning is old, whether at twenty or eighty." - Henry Ford
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FYI
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I'm terribly sorry this is so late tonight. I'm out of town a lot this week and by the time I get to a computer it can be quite late. I hope for things to return to *normal* in a few days. Sorry for the inconvenience. -Erich
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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The Aussie continued lower today, and I'm quite tempted to place a buy order above the high, but think I'll let it go one more day. Some days I just like pressing my luck. ;-)
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December British Pound BPZ5
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The Pound showed us a little support today at 181.60. This isn't quite low enough to count at 181, which was my support target. If we get a reaction here I'll look to buy tomorrow, otherwise we officially move into bear territory.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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Big day for the Canadian bulls as they rallied the market right from the open. I wasn't expecting this and I'm not quite sure what to make of it. The market might just be filling the gap from the day before, although it would be a little quick for that. Think I'd best leave it alone tomorrow.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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The Euro found support today right at 123, which is also trendline support. While RSI doesn't echo the trendline test, it is at the 50% level, where we sometimes see a bounce as well. I'll get a little aggressive with this market and look to buy on a break of the resistance above today's high.

*BUY December EuroFX at 124.17
*Stop 123.73
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $550 per contract
*Profit Target: 127.17
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3750 per contract
*RRR: 6 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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We certainly had the right idea about the Yen today, but a nasty opening gap kept us out of the market. Did you notice how rates faded the low open? This is exactly why we monitor opening range. Nothing new here tomorrow.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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We got a late fill in the Peso today as the market found our sell order near the end of the session. I'm not too crazy about getting a late fill, but the market had pretty good momentum the whole day, so hopefully this will spill over tomorrow.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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The Franc is mirroring what we're seeing in the EuroFX, namely a trendline test. Like the Euro, I'll look to buy the market on a break above today's high.

*BUY December Swiss Franc at 8037
*Stop 8013
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 8273
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2950 per contract
*RRR: 9 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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It should be no surprise to any of you that the USD is also testing the price trendline today, but in the opposite direction. The US Dollar has an inverse relationship with many of the currencies, especially the Swiss Franc, Euro and Pound.

I'm running the same strategy, but in reverse for the US Dollar tomorrow: selling support insteady of buying.

*SELL December US Dollar at 8717
*Stop 8747
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 8563
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1540 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Well, whaddaya know, gas prices slowed to a trickle today as price found support at 185.25. If I was smart I'd bracket today's range, with a preference to the downside, and trade the breakout tomorrow, but to tell the truth I'm still a bit leery of this market.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Same story for Heating Oil as prices found support today at 180. Like Gas though, I'm a little gunshy about buying/selling. I know I'll probably regret it, but I'll wait one more day.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Ditto for crude.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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The ED bounce a day late today as rates rallied nicely from support. As you know I'd rather sell here than buy, but if the market continues above the 9582 resistance I might be persuaded.

*BUY June Eurodollar at 95.835
*Stop 95.775
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 96.055
*Approximate Profit Potential: $550 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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Big bounce in the Dow today, just as we expected. I'd like to see the market continue lower tomorrow as well, before we get serious about looking for a place to buy.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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The NAS followed the other indices lower today as the market took a bounce off 1633 - 1634. Expect more of the same tomorrow.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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Got the lower session we were looking for here as well. Another lower day tomorrow will get me seriously looking for support to buy from.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Yeech! What a mess. Corn tried to rally today but couldn't. This usually means prices will continue lower very soon...but I wonder if we can get one more day out of this market before selling.
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December Oats OZ5
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A big day for oats as prices continued yesterday's strong session. This market is flirting with resistance at the top of the trading range. If we get a break above the secondary resistance at 158, then I'll look to buy me some oats!

*BUY December Oats at 159 1/4
*Stop 156 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 167 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $425 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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November Rice RRX5
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There's the beginning of the Rice bounce. I'd like to see the market continue higher for at least one more session before we look to sell. Looking for resistance at 679 and/or 690.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Soy Meal stalled out today, which isn't the best news for those of us short the market. Still can't do too much with our stops, but you could bring them above today's high if you wanted to snuggle them up a bit.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Not much has changed for Bean Oil today. If you're looking to protect as much profit as possible, bring the stops in above yesterday's high, otherwise leave them above 2260.

First profit target is 2141.
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November Soybean SX5
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The big Bean market isn't looking all that cooperative either, but at least we're at breakeven here, so if price do rally we shouldn't get hurt - I hope.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Doesn't that just frost your cookies? We had the right idea in this market, but the range today was too much for our stop placement as wheat stopped us out for a small loss.

I normally give a market the day off after taking a whipsaw, but I might look to buy wheat again tomorrow on a break of resistance above the high. Hopefully things will work out a little better this time.

*BUY December Wheat at 331 3/4
*Stop 328 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 341 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $500 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Got the hint of lower prices tomorrow as the market confirmed resistance today. It's actually a very nice setup, and if it weren't countertrend I would look to sell the low, with stops at 113.50-ish and try to collect profit around 110.30. But it is countertrend, so I'll pass.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Like Feeder's, Cattle's strong rally is showing signs of a pending pullback over the next few days. The trend is still bullish, so I'll forego selling right now.
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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If you left your stops then you are still in the market, but if you brought them up, then Hogs would have tagged you out today, but for a profit of about $380 per contract!
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Copper didn't rally high enough to find our buy order, but it's not unusual to see this market alternate higher and lower days. I'll run the order again tomorrow just in case we see a rally.

*BUY December Copper at 165.35
*Stop 163.95
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $350 per contract
*Profit Target: 174.90
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2387 per contract
*RRR: 6 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Gold GCZ5
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A very weak day in gold as prices traded back through the 449 line. RSI is also hooking suggesting that prices are moving lower tomorrow, but I think I'll give it one more day before committing. Gold can be a bit choppy at times as well.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Ouch! What a crazy day in silver as prices made the day's low and high in less than an hour! Needless to say we got whipped in the process like only sivler can do. Nothing here tomorrow.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa got to 1440 before calling it a day. There's bit of support here, and I'd like to see a bit of a bounce off of here.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee's calling my bluff today as prices gave us the hesitiation we requested. I'll look to sell a break of today's low, tomorrow. I hope I'm not framing the trade too tight as exit stops are going on the other side of the opening price.

*SELL December Coffee at 9145
*Stop 9235
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $337 per contract
*Profit Target: 8855
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1087 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton fell off nicely today and traded right to support at 4950. If this support holds tomorrow then we will look at buying again. If we break through here then we're definite cotton bears.
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November OJ OJX5
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I'm not too surprised that OJ traded lower today. It was to be expected after yesterday's strong session. Stops are a breakeven again for tomorrow.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar stalled out today after yesterday's breaking of resistance. I'm still holding off on this market until we see it *normalize* a bit. .

"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, September 13, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, September 13, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=6-09 HI=6-11 LO=5-21 CL=5-31

As I speculated yesterday, the bonds opened gap down moving us to the next lower level. My first trade was a buy at 116-03 which was stopped out at B/E. Next up we sold 115-30 and ran with it down to 115-21. Here I reversed the trade buying 2 at 115.22. We pocketed 8 ticks, $250 on teh closed out short. The open long I closed at -27 for another 5 ticks.

Based on the close at 115-31 we'll be looking up 116-00 and 115-16 tomorrow.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.800 HI=.805 LO=.770 CL=.790

A nice day for our short trade from .920. With today's action 95.800 has gained stature. I moved my stop to 95.805. We'll see what tomorrow brings. We are sitting pretty at the moment.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=40 HI=53 LO=28 CL=33

I big overnight move lower prompted an opening gap down. I'll stay with 8400 for the moment.
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4: SEPTEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFU5 O=7 HI=77 LO=45 CL=47

They dealt us a big opening lower gap here as well. Nothing done toady. They took it off the table. I did nothing here today. Same numbers for tomorrow. I doubt we'll see it. I'll also sell a retest into the 7975 to 90 area that fails to break 8000. The stop gets a little tricky with such a wide range of entry. Whereever I get filled i'll put the stop back $125. That should be enough room for the SF to show its intent. I'll get it to B/E very quickly to compensate for the vagaries of the initial stop ... fill in the 90's B/E is at 89; in the 80's at 79; in the 70's 69.
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=1.20 HI=6.90 LO=9.10 CL=3.40

With our first day in the new contract numbers this should be interesting. I sold 679.70 and tried to get out at B/E ... filled at 680.00 losing $30. I bought 680.40 and out at 681.40 for $100. Next, I bought 682.40 and bailed at 685.00 for $260. I missed tha last big run higher near end of day.

No new numbers.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=2.70 HI=3.90 LO=1.20 CL=3.70

Flirted with it but no dice. $10 gold channel for tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.80 HI=.30 LO=.55 CL=.20

Ugly day. I hope you followed the advice in TT yesterday. Now you know why I so infrequently take trades home with me overnight. This was wild gap day. A lot of folks got hammered today in a lot of markets. Not Us. I waited and then bought 50.60 closing it out at 51.15 for 55 ticks, $275.

Same numbers from Tuesday's update again for tomorrow.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=00 HI=07 LO=80 CL=83

Nothing done. Another big gap open. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.10 HI=2.11 3/4 LO=2.06 1/2 CL=2.11 1/2

Yikes ... dead long walking. There is nothing to do until the structure builds or we return to 2.16 1/2 where I will buy.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.20 HI=3.29 LO=3.18 CL=3.26 1/2

Another gapper at the open. Just enough to wipe out long's stops and then zapped it right back to yesterday's close. We got to 3.26 but why trade this craziness. I let it be. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.

Erich's Update for Tuesday, September 13, 2005

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Market Update for Tuesday, September 13, 2005
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"Anyone who stops learning is old, whether at twenty or eighty." - Henry Ford
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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The Aussie confirmed last week's resistance at 7725 by trading lower today. Look for rates to likely continue lower for the next few days until we encounter support at 7600.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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Big gap lower this morning sent the Pound lower in a hurry. I thought the market was looking more bullish than this, but I guess not. Look for support at 181 tomorrow, otherwise the bears take over the market.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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The Canadian Dollar also fell off today, but not quite as dramatically as the Pound. Here too I would expect rates to continue lower tomorrow as the market looks for support. Likely support will occur at 8400, from where we might look for another buy.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
Big move lower in the Euro this morning as well. Rates are now testing support on the trendline at 123.10. If we get a bounce here tomorrow then I'm looking to buy again. A break will get me serious about selling.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
The Yen bounced a little early of our RSI test as rates traded lower today. That's not a problem however, as we can look to sell the Yen below the support at 9155 near today's low. I would have liked to enter on the other side of 9150, but it would leave too much at risk; therefore I'm entering on a break of 9155.

*SELL December Japanese Yen at 9153
*Stop 9177
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 9077
*Approximate Profit Potential: $950 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
The Peso held the support and resistance channel again today. I might run the trade as is tomorrow,

*BUY December Mexican Peso at 92.375
*Stop 91.775
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 94.350
*Approximate Profit Potential: $987 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL December Mexican Peso at 91.375
*Stop 91.775
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 89.425
*Approximate Profit Potential: $975 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
A big gap lower in the Swiss Franc this morning as this market shot lower. The gap would have voided any trade we had for this market, but we were looking to buy anyway. Nothing new here tomorrow.
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
And the reason all the currencies headed lower today is because of the strong session in the USD. It looks like we haven't seen the end of it yet either, but I would like to see a slight hesitation so that we can look to buy in...but that might be asking too much.
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
October Unleaded Gas HUV5
----------
Gas prices continue to slide today. This is another market that looks like it might just be beginning a reversal phase; however we'll need a slightly better setup before we try to get onboard.
----------
October Heating Oil HOV5
----------
Heating Oil was a bit of a surprise today as the market continues to make a nice, progressive pullback. This is another market that has gotten away from us so we need to be on the lookout for the next selling opportunity. After declining for six straight sessions, I would hope we don't have to wait too much longer.
----------
October Crude Oil CLV5
----------
Crude is officially bearish now that prices have broken the price and RSI trendlines. Like the other energy markets we need to be cautious and wait for a good sell signal. We don't want to get anxious only to get whipsawed.

Good news is that this should eventually translate into lower fuel prices as well.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
----------
The ED continued lower today testing support at 9572. We've broken the RSI testpoint, so lower rates look likely. As you know that's my preference for this market anyway, and like the other markets we need to wait for our next chance to sell.
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
The Dow gave us our first hint of a pullback today. If the market continues to fall off tomorrow then we'll look at trailing a buy order for the eventual revesal.
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
The NAS was the odd man out today as this market traded higher from last week. Here too I would think that resistance at 1633 could cause some problems tomorrow. Like the Dow we will treat any revesal as a temporary pullback and continue to look to buy.
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
The S&P's reversal today was the most convincing of the three indices. As with the others I will continue to look to buy, but would prefer to see a lower session again tomorrow.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
A big opening gap voided our sell order today. It wasn't a stellar session by any means, but I'm gettting a little tired of getting gapped on the open. Might be for the best though as the closing price looks a little bullish.
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Big *fade* day in oats as prices rallied right from the open. This marke also closed near the high which would make me believe that it will continue higher tomorrow. Nothing new here.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
Another good day for the Rice bears as prices continued lower to support at 650. We now have a small rounded top formation and we all know what that means, right? A bounce is likely tomorrow.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Soy Meal continued lower today finding our sell order in the process. If you took today's trade then you can't do too much with your exit stops just yet - although you could move them above the high if you *had* to do something.

If you sold Meal last week you can safely bring stops to breakeven now.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
Bean Oil headed lower today until it ran into the strong support at the 2210 line. While I would like to think prices will slip through here tomorrow it does look as though a bounce is likely. Therefore you should consider bringing in your exit stops, either above today's high if you're looking to protect maximum profits, or above 2260 if you're trying to ride the trade as far as possible.

First profit target is 2141.
----------
November Soybean SX5
----------
A bullish/bear session in the big bean market as prices started low only to trade higher for the rest of the day. If you're short this market from last week, bring exit stops to breakeven for tomorrow.
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Wheat gapped our sell order this morning, but the extremely strong session did find our buy order before the day was done. I was hoping for a little more momentum on our fill, but it came late in the day and now our trade is MUCH tighter than I had planned! We're going to need a bit of luck to ride this one out tomorrow.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
October Feeder Cattle FCV5
----------
Feeder's rallied higher (again) but today's session smacks of lower prices tomorrow as evidenced by the low closing price. Will we finally get another chance at this market?
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
Very strong day in Cattle has me kicking myself for getting sidetracked by what was happening in Feeders. Cattle has had six strong days in a row now, so it's most likely that we will see a hesitation tomorrow.
----------
October Lean Hogs LHV5
----------
Hogs made a run at our stops today but didn't find them. By the end of the day the market was trading higher again so you could bring stops under 6470's support, or leave them where they are for one more day.
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Copper bounced as per request, so now the market's making me put my money where my mouth is. Okay, copper, have it your way: I'll buy the market above the secondary resistance and use support at 164 to cover the trade. Profit target is a projection of the *other* trendline.

*BUY December Copper at 165.35
*Stop 163.95
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $350 per contract
*Profit Target: 174.90
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2387 per contract
*RRR: 6 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
So-so day in Gold. Prices rallied in spite of the fact that the US Dollar headed higher as well. I think the iffy closing price adds to tomorrow's confusion.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
Silver continued to batter away at support at 700 today. RSI is sloping lower and the trend is down so I'll consider selling the market on a break below here. I'll actually give the market a little room before selling so that I can use the 700 line to cover the trade as well.

*SELL December Silver at 698.5
*Stop 702.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 672.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 contract
*RRR: 6 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Cocoa fell off sharply today. I haven't had a chance to research the market to find the reason behind the decline, but I do know that support at 1450 - 1460 is critical to hold the market up. If we get a reaction here I'll be looking to buy the market on Wednesday.
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
I had a feeling I was squeezing coffee a little too hard, and today the market slipped past us like a wet bar of soap. With a little luck we'll get another hesitation in the decline in a day or two to allow for another sell.
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
I'm not quite sure what to make of today's session, other than cotton is sitting on strong support at 5050. A bounce here will confirm the bulls have things under control, otherwise we could see prices slip lower still.
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
At least the OJ trade went according to plan today as prices broke the resistance at 9325 to find our order. It was a good session overall as today's gains allow us to bring exit stops to breakeven for tomorrow. First profit target is resisance at 9780.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
What did I tell you? I cover the short side and the market breaks through the upside. This is the second time I've let my *opinion* get in the way of my trading. See, it can happen to the best of us, even after year's of doing this. Work hard at letting the charts tell you what to do and keep your opinion to yourself.

I just hope the market doesn't run too far without us..

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition - Part One

The Big Wekend Edition - Part One is posted at http://www.supportandresistance.com/testdrive.html

Enjoy!

Market Update for Friday, September 9, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Friday, September 9, 2005
==================================================
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
I've been reluctant to do anything with the AD as the market has been quite thin. It is picking up volume however, as traders switch from the soon to expire September contract. Nothing new for tomorrow, but we might be able to put on a trade next week.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
I was hoping the Pound would continue lower; however today the market made a stab at resistance before backing off. Now that we've got a couple of hits on resistance we know where to buy from in case we see a reversal tomorrow.

*BUY December British Pound at 184.43
*Stop 183.77
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $412 per contract
*Profit Target: 186.77
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1462 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
The Canadian Dollar is also trading at the 8500 resistance area; however I'm not as inspired to buy the market from here tomorrow. In fact I would like to see lower rates tomorrow so as to reinforce the resistance line and make for a more predictable entry when it does break.
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
Still holding out for a test of the 124 support line. Let's see if we get it tomorrow.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
Did you notice the divergence in RSI and Yen rates? The Yen is dropping but RSI is heading higher. This is actually happening in quite a few markets right now and is a sign of instability, so I'll hold off on the Yen for now. Look for a drop to support at 9100 as a likely target.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
The Peso continues to flirt with support as RSI gets closer still to a testpoint. I'll run the same order again tomorrow, but if the Peso is still waffling we'll tighten it up over the weekend.

*SELL December Mexican Peso at 91.375
*Stop 91.775
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 89.425
*Approximate Profit Potential: $975 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
A good day in the SF, not because we got a fill, but because we didn't. You see resistance and support did what they were supposed to and kept us out of a potentially bad trade...which is not easy to do in a big ranging market like the Swiss Franc.

We'll run the same trade again tomorrow. I like the numbers a lot. I'll like them even better if we can avoid a gap or a whipsaw.

*BUY December Swiss Franc at 8153
*Stop 8133
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 8273
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1500 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
The pullback in the USD continued today. We've got resistance just above the market around 8750 which might come into play tomorrow.
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
October Unleaded Gas HUV5
----------
This is the best resistance we've seen in this market for a while. Did you notice the double hit on the 207 high? How about the support at 197? Close enough to 196.25 for me, given the current market circumstances that is.

I'll look to buy Gas on a break above 207 tomorrow as I suspect prices might find support. As always this is a HIGH risk trade because of the huge price swings that can occur here. Because of the potentially large risk we're using both side of 207 to enter and cover the trade. This helps keep the risk amount down, but also makes for a very risky trade.

*BUY October Unleaded Gas at 207.65
*Stop 206.30
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $567 per contract
*Profit Target: 219
*Approximate Profit Potential: $4767 per contract
*RRR: 8:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
October Heating Oil HOV5
----------
Heating Oil is acutally looking a little bearish today as RSI broke the lower trendline. Technically prices moved into bear territory as well, but I can't bring myself to sell just yet.
----------
October Crude Oil CLV5
----------
Crude continued to hunt for support today as prices had yet another big day. Today's session brings the 6600 resistance back into play which I will use to enter a long position tomorrow. We've got intermediate support at 6560 which we can use to cover the trade. First profit target is resistance at 6870 - 6880.

*BUY October Crude at 6605
*Stop 6560
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 6870
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2650 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
----------
The ED continued lower today bringing us very close to an RSI testpoint. This is our cue to put together a buy order in case we see a bounce off support tomorrow. I will look to buy above the 9587 resistance and cover the trade at the intermediate resistance at 9582. I would have preferred the support at 9580; however that would have left too much at risk.

*BUY June Eurodollar at 9587.5
*Stop 9582.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 9509.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $550 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
I still think the indices are inflated and due for a reversal; however all three of the markets are in an uptrend and as such we need to look for a buy. The DOW gave us a bit of a hiccup today, but I'll hold out for a lower session tomorrow as I don't want to hold this one over the weekend.
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
Ditto for the NAS.
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
And the S&P.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
Corn behaved itself today sticking to the support and resistance numbers. I'll run the trade again tomorrow, but would really like to see more of the same. There's a WASDE report due out Monday, so I don't think traders are ready to commit until then.

*BUY December Corn at 224 1/4
*Stop 220 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 236 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $625 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL December Corn at 214 1/4
*Stop 217 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 204 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Oats calmed down a bit since yesterday and with the WASDE report on Monday I think they'll probably behave tomorrow as well.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
No luck as Rice continued to run away from us today. We'll probably get our hiccup tomorrow, but it might be a little too late.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
I'm not crazy about selling Meal going into the weekend; however I want to be there if prices make a big move. The WASDE report on Monday will probably keep a lid on the market until then - I hope.

*SELL December Bean Meal at 183.7
*Stop 186.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 171.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1240 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
Bean Oil headed lower through support finding our sell order today. There is enough room to bring stops in a bit if you choose. I would probably move them above today's high, but on the other side of 2300 (maybe 2301 or 2303).

First profit target is 2141.
----------
November Soybean SX5
----------
Beans didn't commit today like Bean Oil did, and like Meal I'm a little leery about running this trade tomorrow; however with the WASDE looming I hope that prices will behave themselves.

*SELL November Soybeans at 592 3/4
*Stop 598 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 548 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $225 per contract
*RRR: 8:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Wild day in wheat as prices took a hard bounce off support. I'll hold off bracketing the trade right now and will stick with the sell, but I'd love to see resistance hold tomorrow, that would almost make this too easy to trade come Monday.

Pretty please?

*SELL December Wheat at 315 3/4
*Stop 318 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 305
*Approximate Profit Potential: $537 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
October Feeder Cattle FCV5
----------
There go Feeder's again. I'm not having a lot of luck getting a *feel* for this market lately, but at least it didn't lose us any money either. ;-)

I honestly didn't think this market could generate that kind of momentum at these prices. We'll likely see a hesitation tomorrow which could give us another chance to buy.
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
Cattle were a little more subdued than Feeders today, but also continued higher. We're back in the 8400 resistance area, so we'll see if we get a bounce here tomorrow (which I think we might).
----------
October Lean Hogs LHV5
----------
Hogs continued higher today and while we're not testing the support I was looking for we have to take what the market is giving and get ready to buy a break above the 6350 resistance. I'm placing my buy order a little further away, because it is Friday and I don't want a bad fill going into the weekend.

*BUY October Lean Hogs at 63.725
*Stop 62.975
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $320 per contract
*Profit Target: 67.875
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1660 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
September Copper HGU5
----------
We nailed copper's support today, didn't we? If we get a bounce here tomorrow I'll look to buy on Monday.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
Nuts. Gold ran up early and broke resistance, finding our buy order, only to drop off a few minutes later and hit our exit stops for a $340 loss. Not what I wanted to happen! I still think we're on the right side of this market, but I'll give it the day off tomorrow and lick my wounds.
----------
September Silver SIU5
----------
Back in familiar territory as silver held up near the 695 support today. RSI is hooking and would suggest that we will see lower prices tomorrow, but I don't trust silver enough to take a new position on a Friday, but that's me.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Overbought or not, cocoa prices continued higher today. I'll hold off buying the market on Friday but we definitely need to look for another buy.
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
Coffee's hesitation almost looks like we will see a bounce tomorrow. If we do I might look at another sell for next week.
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Cotton is giving us a chance to buy above the 5285 high today; however I don't trust this market on Friday either. Monday is the Cotton report as well, so we could something crazy happen tomorrow. Call me old fashioned, but I'm standing aside.
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
OJ finally broke support today and found our sell order. It was a good session and we can bring exit stops in a bit, above today's high, if you choose. First profit target is support at 8515.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
Sugar keeps struggling with resistance which reinforces my thought that a reversal is in the making. I'm not about to put my money where my mouth is...at least not tomorrow.

"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, September 8, 2005

========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, September 8, 2005
========================================================
*** TOMORROW IS "ROLL DAY" FOR ALL THE STOCK INDECIES. WE WILL BEGIN TRADING DECEMBER E-MINI RUSSELL TOMORROW FIRST THING. ***
========================================================
1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDZ5 O=6-30 HI=6-31 LO=5-29 CL=6-09

We sold 115-27 as Bonds continue to act like a rock thrown into a pond. An uneventful ride to break -16. When it dipped to -09 I rolled the stop and was botted at -12 for 15 points ... just shy of our 16 point daily goal. Later we bounced back to -16 and I got one sold at -14 which we bailed on at -04 on the turn at -02. That gave us a nice 25 point day, $781.

We rebounded a bit near the close settling at 116-09. We'll look to 116-00 and 116-16 as likely initiation points and go from there. -08 is in the mix as well but we need to do one trade off the main numbers first.

Anybody still doubt the wisdom of "NO BUY " zones at elevated price levels?
========================================================
2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDH6 O.905 HI.905 LO.825 CL.840

We now have a nice little trade going with about $150 of accumulated profit for our short time of $62 at risk. 95.825 was very much a "what's most likely" level for the market to bounce a little. If you still didn't get in today on the break of .875 I think you can take a flyer selling a failed retest there or more likely of .825 tomorrow. I've now got the stop at 95.885.
========================================================
3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDU5 O=06 HI=48 LO=79 CL=12

A wicked little fake break lower today only to snap right back. I sold 8396 and was stopped out at 8404 for an $80 loss. Canucks, they are a very tricky lot, eh?

Same TT weekend numbers tomorrow.

========================================================
4: SEPTEMBER SWISS FRANC
========================================================
SFU5 O=78 HI=87 LO=42 CL=54

I sold 8084. That was certainly a stretch of the concept of a retest at 8100 but that IS the way I saw it ... especially after taking a peek at the overnight action. What the hey, the stop was only back at 8093 for risk of $112 if I was wrong. Turned out I wasn't. Take a guess where it went? No not 80.50 as I wrote about in TT ... it went to 8052 ... mised it by 2 ticks. I bailed as soon as the candle opened green and got out at 8072. Could have been worse though, I guess but what a disappointment. We picked up $150. We gave back way too much.

Tomorrow I'll go on a failed retest of 8100 as it heads lower again. I will also sell a break of 8020.

========================================================
5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTU5 O=4.20 HI=7.70 LO=1.70 CL=6.40

We began the day buying 673.70 and exited at 674.40 for $70. I sold 672.70 and exited at 673.00 for a small $30 loss. I followed that one buy buying 673.40 and exited at 674.90 for $150. I then bought 673.40 and bailed at 675.20 for $180. I then had to go to PT so quit for the day with $370.

The full array of all TT numbers for tomorrow.
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=7.50 HI=0.20 LO=7.30 CL=9.00

We sold 448.60 and stopped out at 449.30 losing $70. Sold 448.60 again and was stopped out at 449.30 again for another $70 loss.

$10 gold channel for tomorrow.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.80 HI=.90 LO=.60 CL=.88

I bought at 51.64 and exited at 52.50 for $430. I'll plaay yesterday's numbers again .
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COZ5 O=20 HI=52 LO=12 CL=49

A big opeming gap killed our chances of doing anything early. It eventually made it's way to 52.50 but way too late in the day to be of use. Nothing. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.19 3/4 HI=2.20 LO=2.16 1/2 CL=2.17 1/2

Nothing today. I'll play the same TT numbers tomorrow.
========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.21 HI=3.22 LO=3.17 1/2 CL=3.18 3/4

Nothing in our ballpark today. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.

Erich's Update for Thursday, September 8, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Thursday, September 8, 2005
==================================================
Hot off the commodity presses to you!
Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com
"Anyone who has never made a mistake has never done anything new." ~Albert Einstein
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
The AD is beginning the anticipated pullback, maybe. Today's session looked bearish on the surface, but RSI headed higher. Nothing new tomorrow.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
The Pound is also beginning to *normalize* as today's session looked much more bearish. We've also got an RSI hook so lower rates look likely for tomorrow. Still looking for support around 181.
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
Crazy day in the CD as rates made a big range but didn't go anywhere. I'd like to buy the market long above the resistance, but I'm just not comfortable with what the bars have been doing.
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
The Euro is looking a little quirky as well, although rates did decline as anticipated. Watching the 124 line for possible support.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
The Yen definitely looks rangebound as rates fell off slightly today. I was considering selling the market short, and I would have, if RSI was at a test point...but it's not, so I'll hold off tomorrow.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
The Peso's traded lower today confirming yesterday's resistance. We're not quite at an RSI test here either, but I like the support at 91.400 91.500 which we can use to sell the market short.

*SELL December Mexican Peso at 91.375
*Stop 91.775
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 89.425
*Approximate Profit Potential: $975 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
The Swissy behaved itself today and found support at 8100. This is the first line of support we were watching for a possible reversal. I'll look to buy the market long if we get a break above the 8150 resistance on the high.

*BUY December Swiss Franc at 8153
*Stop 8133
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 8273
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1500 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
The USD still looks like it's in the midst of a pullback and will continue higher, possibly to resistance at 8720 before reversing again. Of course if we do get a bearish reaction tomorrow we'll look at selling on Friday.
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
October Unleaded Gas HUV5
----------
A couple of ticks shy of our 196.25 support target, but an interesting day all the same. I should buy the high, but I might hold out for a confirmation of support. This market has been a little crazy lately.
----------
October Heating Oil HOV5
----------
A *textbook* move to support at 194 today - as expected I might add. Today's session was very bearish, so I'll look for support to hold tomorrow before buying. This is the last chance for the bulls to step up to the plate.
----------
October Crude Oil CLV5
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A beautiful move to the downside in crude today. Did you notice that prices found the 50% retracement, the price trendline and hooked in RSI? This is a big day folks. It looks very good that crude is heading higher tomorrow, the problem is where do you buy in?

For those thrill seekers among you, you could try to buy the low tomorrow off the 6470 support, otherwise look to buy a break above today's high.

*BUY October Crude at 6475 (limit)
*Stop 6435
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $400 per contract
*Profit Target: 7015
*Approximate Profit Potential: $5400 per contract
*RRR: 13 1/2:1 *Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*BUY October Crude at 6735
*Stop 6695
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $400 per contract
*Profit Target: 7015
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2800 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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I didn't think I'd ever be looking at buying the ED, but the timing is right. RSI is short of a test point, so I'll put a buy order in above the secondary resistance and cover the trade at yesterday's support.

*BUY June Eurodollar at 9589
*Stop 9583.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $137 per contract
*Profit Target: 9509.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $512 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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The DOW had a relatively good day after yesterday's strong session. Right now the market is up against strong resistance, so I would expect a bounce tomorrow and maybe another chance to buy.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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The NAS also traded higher, but not as strongly as the DOW. Here too we see the market battling resistance with a possible reversal tomorrow.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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Ditto for the S&P.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Corn remains stuck in a sideways channel, so we'll bracket the support and resistance and look to trade the breakout side. There's a WASDE report due next Monday, so we might see the market continue to channel until then.

*BUY December Corn at 224 1/4
*Stop 220 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 236 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $625 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

OR

*SELL December Corn at 214 1/4
*Stop 217 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 204 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Oats OZ5
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Wild day in Oats as the market opened with a big gap and faded the rest of the session. Probably a good market to avoid right now.
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September Rice RRU5
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Did you notice where Rice opened today? Yep, right off the 692 support we were watching, unfortunately we were looking to buy and prices went lower, but our order was never triggered so there was no loss. With a bit of luck we'll see a hiccup tomorrow so we can look to sell.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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We got the reaction we were looking for today, so I'll look to sell Meal below the 184 support. NOTE that this is a VERY RISKY trade as we have a ton of support still at 182 - 183 to overcome. You might want to wait another day to see if prices hold on the support tomorrow.

*SELL December Bean Meal at 183.7
*Stop 186.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 171.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1240 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil is still flirting with support at the bottom of the channel. I have to admit I'm not encouraged by the length of time this market is deciding to do something, but I'll continue short for now.

*SELL December Soybean Oil at 2277
*Stop 2307
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 2141
*Approximate Profit Potential: $816 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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November Soybean SX5
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Beans showed us a bearish bull session today, but we also got a hook off the 50% level in RSI. This might be telling us that the market is *refreshed* and ready to continue lower.

*SELL November Soybeans at 592 3/4
*Stop 598 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 548 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $225 per contract
*RRR: 8:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Wheat WZ5
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Wheat once again tested support today as well as hooking off the RSI trendline. I'm not convinced that prices are really ready to go lower, but all the pieces are in place so I'll look to sell support. NOTE that this is another trade (like Bean Meal) where we are selling before clearing the support at 315. If you wanted to be *safer* you could wait one more day to see what the market gives us.

*SELL December Wheat at 315 3/4
*Stop 318 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 305
*Approximate Profit Potential: $537 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Feeder's showed us a lower high today, which might be the first sign of lower resistance and the end of the bull run. We're still technically bullish, so I have to avoid the market right now, but we'll see if the rally continues to struggle.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Slight hesitation in Cattle today as well. I know I'm getting picky now, but a pullback would be a nice way to buy the market from a better price.
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Hogs continue to test support at 6170-ish. After today's session I'm not sure that support will hold and we could see a dip to 6100, from where we would become very aggressive buyers.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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Looks like copper's going to look for support tomorrow. The number to keep an eye on is 169.50.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold continues to hesitate...but that's okay. I still like the buy scenario and will run it again tomorrow.

*BUY December Gold at 453.1
*Stop 449.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 469.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1620 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September Silver SIU5
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Silver might get as high as the trendline resistance at 714 - 715 and if it does we could get serious about selling a bounce.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa continues to call my bluff, hovering around support and resistance. I want to buy the market higher, but the overbought situation is making me a little gunshy. I would dearly love to see prices *normalize* a bit over the next couple of days. Maybe I'll wait.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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So much for all those coffee rumours, eh? It only goes to show you that EVERYTHING is in the numbers. Repeat after me, *trust the numbers, trust the numbers*.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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No doubt this is a hurricane Katrina reaction still, and we'll keep looking for a chance to buy, but this ain't it.
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November OJ OJX5
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OJ's getting closer to our sell order, but here too I'm not impressed by the lack of momentum. I'll run the trade again tomorrow, but it had better smarten up!

*SELL November OJ at 9095
*Stop 9265
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 8515
*Approximate Profit Potential: $870 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Sugar SBV5
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Yesireee, a reversal in sugar is looking more likely today. We're technically bullish, so I'll wait for a reaction before getting more serious.