Tuesday, September 06, 2005

Erich's Update for Friday, September 2, 2005

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Market Update for Friday, September 2, 2005
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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I can't believe the rally we've seen in the currencies the last couple of days. This is truely an out of the ordinary week. Obviously we're not doing anything tomorrow, just watching.
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September British Pound BPU5
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Well I guess it would have been safe to buy the BP after all as it made another huge rally based on the weakness in the US Dollar. With the holiday weekend approaching I wouldn't be surprised to see this market stop to catch it's breath.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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The CD traded higher, but only moderately. It seems that the stall in crude oil might have trickled down to the CD as well. Here too I would prefer to see a bit of a stall tomorrow.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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Okay, this one's really close as the Euro gapped our entry by a measly 10 points - that's not a lot in the Euro. If you decided to take the trade anyway, knowing that the currencies have a tendency to gap, or if you watched during opening range, you might have gotten on board this very strong rally today.

If you did buy into the Euro, then you'll want to bring exit stops at least below the 125.10 intraday support for tomorrow, but don't be shy about making it tighter still as there is over $1000 in accumulated profits today, and being flat before a holiday weekend is not a bad thing.
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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A nice rally in the Yen today, and fairly steady day as well. It makes me sorry I didn't look at buying the Yen today, but that's okay, we'll have another chance next week.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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Fairly bearish day in the Peso, but we didn't get the RSI test we were looking for. I'm going to hold off to see if rates don't continue to challenge resistance before backing off again.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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Nuts. We had the Swissy dead to rights today and the market gapped our entry. Unfortunately this gap was big enough that you probably held off the trade (I did). Disappointing to say the least, but we'll try again next week.
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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At least the US Dollar didn't run away on us today as we got a nice fill off the break in 8700 support. The market continued lower for most of the session with only the odd flare up.

If you wanted to let the trade run then consider bringing stops above 8657, but I've got too much money on the table to put up with a serious reversal before the weekend, so I'm jamming my stop in 12 ticks above the close. If the market backs up any more than that, then I'm outta here!
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Another crazy day in Gas. Today gas took a 9 cent hike at the pumps...that's per liter here, which is about 40 cents a gallon. Ouch!
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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In hindsight I should have used yesterday's hesitation to buy the market long today - nice to know my hindsight's still 20/20!

While I would love to get back into these markets, and the trend is unbelievably strong, these are scary levels to trade at folks, and tomorrow will be compounded with the holiday looming. It will either be a calm day, or the craziest one yet!
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude is subdued compared to Gas and Heating Oil. I should be using this hesitation to buy the market long tomorrow, but I can't afford to hold a crude position over a three day weekend. Heck, I don't even think Donald Trump could afford to hold crude over the holiday weekend!
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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You're seeing history in the making folks. I have NEVER seen the ED rally like this for three days straight. It's a sight to behold for sure...but not to buy.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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Yeech! What a mess. Just when the Dow was looking like it was going somewhere we get this. I don't think I'll bother with this market tomorrow.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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The NAS flinched near resistance today, which is okay because it reinforces the resistance we based the trade on.

You *could* run the trade again tomorrow as we will probably see a rally, but I wouldn't recommend it. I'm just tossing it out there because it is a possible trade, but if I had a higher rating than HIGH risk on my scale, this would get it.

*BUY December mini-NAS at 1607.5
*Stop 1594.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 1647.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $800 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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Ditto for the S&P. It is tradeable tomorrow, but I would be very very very very very very cautious.

By the way, did I mention you should be very cautious about taking this trade?

*BUY December mini-S&P at 1236.25
*Stop 1230
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $312 per contract
*Profit Target: 1255
*Approximate Profit Potential: $937 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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With yesterday's bounce in oats I had a bad feeling it would filter through to the corn market, which it did, stopping us out of our short trade for a small loss.

I'm not going to bother with corn tomorrow, but I do expect another lower session.
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December Oats OZ5
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Go figure that Oats would reverse and head lower after yesterday's hiccup. I'm starting to think this market has it *in* for me. Nothing new here tomorrow.
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September Rice RRU5
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I did say I would look at buying rice tomorrow on a decent session today - which is what we got. But I'd forgot that this is the holiday weekend, so while this is a favourable looking setup, I can't bring myself to buy before the holiday.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Meal continues to flirt with the support line at 184 - 185. I dearly want to sell this market, but like the other trades I can't do it before the holiday. We might see mean head lower tomorrow, but I'm going to be flat.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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I hate it when the market just breaks a resistance level enough to find my order and then reverse to stop me out. Of all the markets, bean oil does it with the most consistency. This doesn't mean we're one the wrong side of the trade, just that we were wrong today.

Nothing new tomorrow.
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November Soybean SX5
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Beans rallied off support today, and weren't as wishy-washy as bean oil was. Given today's high close I'll run the trade again tomorrow, but be aware that it is extremely risky and you should consider your investment *gone* if you take the trade.

You might consider pulling the order after lunch as well as the pits are likely to get really thin.

*SELL November Soybeans at 592 3/4
*Stop 598 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 548 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $225 per contract
*RRR: 8:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September Wheat WU5
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Got the wheat bounce we were looking for today off teh 318 support line. I don't think we'll see the market rally too far however and might even see a reversal tomorrow off resistance at 328.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Now that's what I call a pullback! What a wild day in Feeders as the market plummeted right from the open. They're not done though and look for prices to fill the 107.25 gap tomorrow.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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I guess I should have commented about cattle's lack of movement to the downside earlier as today the market fell off the map. Of course cattle is following feeder's lead and is likely to head lower tomorrow as well.
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Big move for Hogs today as well as prices went looking for support. Hogs broke the 6225 support as well as support at 6200. RSI is at a test point so I would expect a bounce tomorrow, but again I'm just watching because of the holiday.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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Gee, a higher day after a lower day...is this copper or sugar we're looking at?
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December Gold GCZ5
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Out at breakeven as gold did spike with the USD's decline. Lot's of resistance at 450 which might put the brakes on the rally tomorrow.
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September Silver SIU5
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Big rally in silver today. No doubt the market was spurred higher by the overflow from gold's rally. Standing aside for tomorrow until things settle down a bit.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Today was a bit of a surprise in cocoa to say the least. The big rally does look like it might continue tomorrow, but I'm going to pass.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee plodded higher today as well. Look for prices to likely continue higher tomorrow until they encounter resistance at 108-ish. Then it might run into some problems.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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An *evil* day in the cotton pits as traders went looking for orders to whipsaw. While I can't prove it, that's exactly what the bar looks like. Nothing here tomorrow.
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November OJ OJX5
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The opening gap voided our trade today as prices opened very low, only to fade higher the rest of the session. Not quite what I was expecting, so I think I'll watch tomorrow.
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October Sugar SBV5
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There's sugar's reaction to the resistance on the contract high. We might see a test of support at 990 tomorrow, but again I'm just a spectator.
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Erich's Update for Thursday, September 1, 2005

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Market Update for Thursday, September 1, 2005
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Tom is out of town and won't be able to do the daily updates for Tom's Trades until his return this weekend.
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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Big reversal off the AD today. This market is still technically in a downtrend so I'll have to forego a buy trade for the moment.
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September British Pound BPU5
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Huge rally in the Pound today as well. I hate days like today because the big rally makes it tough to know what's going to happen tomorrow, BUT the tendency is for a market to second guess itself a bit after a big day, so I think I'll wait.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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The CD found resistance at 8450 today. We've made a BIG rounded bottom formation now and should expect a reaction to the 8450 resistance. Like the other currencies I don't want them to run away from us, but I sure don't want to get caught in a rangeless day either.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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Time to put up or shut up as the Euro bounced off the trendline today. I was a beautiful bounce off support as rates rallied consistently higher all day. There is a danger that we will see a small reversal tomorrow, but I'll try to keep the entry far enough away to avoid a bad fill.

*BUY December EuroFX at 124.43
*Stop 123.97
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $575 per contract
*Profit Target: 127.17
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3425 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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Scary day in the Yen as rates made a big move to the upside as well. I would expect higher rates to continue but I'm not sure about entering from current levels.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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Who said the Peso would find resistance at 92.800? I love it when the market is cooperative like that! ;-)

Seriously though, I would have hoped that the big move to the upside today would have given us a corresponding move in RSI, but it did not. As such we might see rates continue higher still before we get a testpoint.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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Got $300 bucks you don't need? Then you might consider buying the Swiss Franc above the resistance on today's high. While I avoided most of the currencies because of today's big rally, the Euro and Swiss Franc look to have the most *solid* setups. Of course that doesn't mean that they will work out, only that they're looking pretty good.

*BUY December Swiss Franc at 8067
*Stop 8043
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 8197
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1625 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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The USD was the culprit behind the rallies today as it took a big dip to the downside. Rates settled just shy of the 8700 support line which we will use to sell from tomorrow. Like the other markets, I'm a little leery of selling again after such a big day. Just so you know.

*SELL December US Dollar Index at 8699
*Stop 8737
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $380 per contract
*Profit Target: 8561
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1380 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Yet another scary day in Gas. Crude's faltering a bit, it will be interesting to see if Gas follows its lead.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Definite divergence in RSI as Heating Oil looked slightly more bearish today. I'd love to sell it short, but these ranges are just way to crazy.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Slight setback in Crude prices today. I'd like to see a dip all the way to 6600 before I might consider another buy, but right now I'm just watching.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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I don't remember the last time I saw the Eurodollar rally like this two day's in a row. The upside is limited though and I'll continue to look for another chance to sell.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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The DOW is definitely looking stronger again...but for how long. We've got resistance at 10570 which might crimp our upside.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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Given today's continued rally in the NAS I would probably look to buy the market above today's high. The only problem with the trade is the resistance at 1613 which will cause some problems, but hopefully we can get the trade to breakeven before that.

*BUY December mini-NAS at 1607.5
*Stop 1594.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 1647.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $800 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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I wanted to do the same type of trade in the S&P as we have in the NAS; however here we can incorporate the next resistance level into the trade to delay entry until we trade above it. This is a little more favourable than the NAS set up.

*BUY December mini-S&P at 1236.25
*Stop 1230
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $312 per contract
*Profit Target: 1255
*Approximate Profit Potential: $937 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Corn fell through support today finding our short order. There's enough room to move stops to 218's resistance if you choose, but if you can afford the risk you might consider leaving them at 220 for one more day.
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December Oats OZ5
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How disappointing as Oats made a big bounce today, stopping us out of our shorts at breakeven. I certainly thought this market had more room on the downside, but after today I'm not so sure anymore.
Standing aside for tomorrow.
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September Rice RRU5
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Rice is bound and bent it's going to hold the trendline again. Technically we're in a downtrend, but if we see a reasonable session tomorrow I might buy.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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I thought Meal would have gotten closer to all that support at 182 by now, but it hasn't. I thought about placing a sell order below 181, but I think I'll hold off for a bit. RSI is quite oversold and might be due for a reversal.

I'm still looking to sell this market, but finding the *right* time to get in is proving to be a problem.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Another crazy day in the Bean Oil market as prices recouped yesterday's gains. I might run the same trade as we did a couple of day's ago and sell Bean Oil on a break of yesterday's low. There is a bit of support here in the 2250 area - I hope it doesn't snag us.

*SELL December Bean Oil at 2257
*Stop 2287
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 2123
*Approximate Profit Potential: $804 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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November Soybean SX5
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Okay we got the testpoint bounce in RSI today, which gives us the green light to sell beans tomorrow. I'm a little more comfortable selling beans than meal because we're already at the strong support line. I'll place my entry a little further so that we don't get caught by a wandering market.

Even so it is a risky trade.

*SELL November Soybeans at 592 3/4
*Stop 598 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 548 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $225 per contract
*RRR: 8:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat made a nice decline just past the 318 support line today. I think we're likely to see a bounce tomorrow which will give us a chance to sell this market from a proven support level.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Feeder's are still searching for support. Today the market held yesterday's low, but I still think we'll see a bit more of a pullback.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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I thought Cattle would be more aggressive to the downside during this pullback phase, but today's session was confined by yesterday's range. I'm tempted to put a buy order above the high, but I'll wait for confirmation before comitting.
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Hogs are still testing the resistance at the neckline of the rounded top formation. Here too I'm expecting more of a pullback before buying again.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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The copper see-saw continues today. Nothing interesting tomorrow, but I think a big break is coming (lower).
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold made a poke at our stops today, but didn't find them. If you haven't brought them to breakeven yet, you'd better do so, because if the USD falls again tomorrow then that will ignite gold higher.

First profit traget is support at 425.7
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September Silver SIU5
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Silver rallied off support today and is very close to an RSI testpoint. The downtrend is strong so I'll place an order to sell below today's low with stops above the 672 resistance.

*SELL September Silver at 667.5
*Stop 673.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 640.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1350 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa's getting closer to another sell. I'd like to see prices test the 1370 support for an easy entry, otherwise if this hesitation continues, we might look to sell intermediate support.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Big gap higher in coffee today. This market's a little too squirrelly right now...more than usual I mean.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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I still haven't forgiven cotton for smacking us the other day. It looks as though the market is searching for short term support, but I'm just watching.
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November OJ OJX5
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Got the bounce off of 9300's resistance today with a low closing price making me look to sell OJ tomorrow on a break of this week's support at 9130. I'll actually give the market a little extra room on the entry, to help avoid a bad fill.

*SELL November OJ at 9095
*Stop 9265
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $255 per contract
*Profit Target: 8515
*Approximate Profit Potential: $870 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar continues to look stronger, and I do expect the market to rally; however I think I'll wait for a test of the contract highs before looking to buy.

Erich's Update for Wednesday, August 31, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, August 31, 2005
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Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com
"It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer." ~Albert Einstein
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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Yep, I'm really wishing I sold the AD when I had the chance, now we're just left watching the show. This market can go lower still, but it will interesting to see what happens at 7445.
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September British Pound BPU5
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The Pound fell off sharply today. No chance to short the market given the gap, but it looks like we're definitely in a retracement. I would guesstimate the short term target to be support around 177.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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Unlike most of the other currencies, the CD showed us support today and rallied higher. This is probably due to the skyrocketing oil prices, which have a huge affect on the Canadian economy. I might regret this tomorrow, but I'll hold off another day to see what happens around all this resistance.
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September EuroFX ECU5
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The Euro fell to trendline support today. The session was rather indecisive overall which might lead to a bounce tomorrow. If we do get a bounce we'll look at buying again, but I have to admit it looks a bit iffy.
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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Big gap lower today as the Yen fell off the map. I'm still looking for a chance to trade this market but the ranges and gaps have made it a bit difficult.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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As I figured the Peso continued higher today after bouncing off support yesterday. Might see a more extensive pullback than first anticipated. We'll see if rates can get back to 92.800, then we'll get serious about selling again.
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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The Swiss Franc was much more aggressive to the downside today than it's EuroFX counterpart. These markets typically mirror each other pretty closely, but today the Franc declined further breaking trendline support.

I'm not too happy with the formations we're looking at right now and might give the Franc another day to straighten up.
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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The US Dollar's rally today is what put the beating on the foreign currencies. The market is at an RSI test, so we'll see if we get a bounce tomorrow off resistance. If we do, and if it's enticing enough, we might consider selling again.
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Ever wonder what a $10K day looks like? Take a close look at the Gas chart. Hindsight being 20/20 makes it easy to say we should have bought the open and held, but this isn't nearly as easy to do for real.

Gas prices are likely to continue higher, but quite frankly I'm scared of the ranges. If we see a bearish day tomorrow I *might* consider another buy.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Heating oil was almost as crazy today as Gas, but only posted $6K gains - only. This is another market that's bound to head higher, but getting on now is like trying to get into a Formula One race car while it's driving!

Like Gas I'd love to see a bit of a setback tomorrow. This would at least give us a chance to get in while the market isn't moving so fast.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Strangely enough, crude was the mildest of the energies today, and while this market normally *drives* the others, crude's session was quite tame by comparison.

Crude is also likely to head higher, but like the other markets we have to be extremely careful about where we decide to get in. Don't hate me, but I'm going to hold off one more day.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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The ED made a huge reversal today stopping us out of our short trade. The next strongest resistance is just above today's high at 9575, so I'll wait to see what happens here before looking at another trade - but as before I'd still perfer to sell.
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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Okay, I'm liking the short side again in the DOW, but I'd also like to see an RSI test before selling again.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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The NAS is a mess. Plain and simple. We'll have to wait a couple of days to let the market sort itself out before looking for another trade.
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September mini-S&P esU5
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The S&P is looking a little more inticing today. This market is also poised to head lower and a confirmation of resistance tomorrow will get me serious about selling.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Sure...now corn decides to head lower, a day late. Do you feel like throwing caution to the wind? The consider selling today's low and covering the market near the 221 resistance. We've got to stretch the trade a bit to get a reasonable RRR, but it is doable...just a little tight to proven support and resistance.

*SELL December Corn at 216 3/4
*Stop 220 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 204 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $600 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Oats OZ5
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Got a nice move in Oats today as prices moved nicely to the downside. Trade management depends on your tolerances. We have about $275 in profit as of the close, so you could bring stops pretty tight if you chose, but you will probably get stopped out tomorrow.

If you're looking to let the trade run, then either put stops in above today's high, or above the intraday resistance at 152 1/2.
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September Rice RRU5
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Here's Rice at trendline support - again. We can either expect a break or bounce tomorrow, but as choppy as this market has been I think I'll hold off for a bit.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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I was hoping to see Meal rally a little higher before one of these bearish looking days, but that's what we got today. I'll wait for the market to confirm resistance by trading lower tomorrow, otherwise expect a stab at 195.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Did somebody finally clue in that Bean Oil can be used in disel engines? Today's session rallied early before flatlining for the rest of the day. Nothing I want to commit to here - yet.
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November Soybean SX5
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Is this all the bounce we're going to get out of beans? I sure hope not, but the market is giving us an RSI test, so we could see a bounce tomorrow. I'll wait for confirmation before putting together a trade.
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat made a clean break of support today and looks to be heading lower. We'll catch up when the market trades off the 318 support.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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No surprise here as Feeder's bounced off the resistance at the contract high. We might be in for a big bounce as prices have a ways to go to *normalize*.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Cattle followed Feeders lower today. Here too I think we will see a bigger reaction to the downside over the next few days. Nothing tradeable though.
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Hogs were a little more persistent than Cattle, but we're still dealing with some serious resistance and a market that is quite overbought. Hoping to see prices fall off a bit over the next few days.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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Copper traded higher again today like nothing ever happened. I'm not convinced to buy in just yet and will watch tomorrow.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gee, I guess adding the sell order was a pretty good idea, huh? ;-)

Gold prices fell off quickly and substantially today allowing us to get our trade to breakeven after one session. I think we will see the market continue to trade lower, but it's not uncommon to see a reaction after a big day like today.

First profit traget is support at 425.7
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September Silver SIU5
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Silver's definitely on a roll, now we just need another chance to get short this market. Watching for another reaction to get short.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa traded lower on a gap today. I'm not too concerned about prices running away as we have strong support at 1375 from where we can enter.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee continues to test the support line at 9500. I'm still looking for the right time to sell this market as it continues to look extremely bearish. You could sell the 9500 support tomorrow, but I'll press my luck and wait another day.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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I'm still sulking over yesterday's hit in cotton. Hurricane Katrina is playing havoc with the cotton producing states and this is sending prices higher for the short term.

Just watching tomorrow.
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November OJ OJX5
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I'm surprised that OJ hasn't rallied because the hurricane, but it's been pretty laid back. We're getting close to another sell, but I wouldn't mind a bounce off the 9300 resistance either.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar's actually looking like it wants to trend again as the market rallied for two days in a row. Expect resistance tomorrow though as we're getting a bit overbought and a reaction is likely.