Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Erich's Update for Tuesday, August 30, 2005

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Market Update for Tuesday, August 30, 2005
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Hot off the commodity presses to you! Well, to the subscribers, anyway. If you'd like to get yours hot and fresh and BEFORE the markets open, please go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com

"It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer." ~Albert Einstein
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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Looks like I should have shorted the Aussie Dollar when I had the chance last week. Today rates continued lower and now we're too far into the trade to try and jump in. Holding off for the market to show us support.
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September British Pound BPU5
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The Pound confirmed the RSI breakout today as rates fell sharply lower. Regardless of where you placed your stop you would have gotten hit today, the only question is for how much.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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The CD continues to look weak, but today's range is a little too scary to try anything with.
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September EuroFX ECU5
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Turns out that getting stopped at breakeven last week was not such a bad thing as rates dipped lower today. This market is technically in a downtrend right now, but I think I'm going to hold off for a bit.
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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The Yen fell to test trendline support today. If we see a higher session tomorrow we'll look at another buy, but the way this market has been bouncing around we might see a break.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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That's cold. The Peso tagged us near the low of the day as rates briefly broke support only to rebound higher. We're still short, but I'm not too encouraged about riding this bounce out tomorrow.
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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The Swissy fell to support at 7900 today. If this support level holds tomorrow then we'll look at another buy, but this market is very sensitive to the US Dollar, so if it continues higher we could see a break lower.
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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The USD is showing us higher support for the first time in a long time. We got stopped out of our short trade today on this bounce back to the trendline resistance.

If the new support level holds then I think we will see the makings of a new rally.
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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"Whacko" is the word which best describes today's Gas session. Don't ask me what to expect tomorrow, because I haven't got a clue.

We'll have to give it a few days to settle down.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Heating oil was a little calmer than Gas today, but still a crazy session overall. We're testing RSI and I think lower prices should follow, but after today's range I don't think I dare try anything.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Interesting where Crude found support today, don't you think? 6630, that's only a couple of ticks off the 6640 line we were watching last week. Either way this market is on the "put-away-and-don't-look-at-for-a-couple-of-days" list.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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The ED gave us the pause we were anticipating as rates tested the 9550 support line. If you're currently short this market you could bring stops in to the other side of 9560, or just leave them at 9563 for tomorrow.

If you're looking to get into this trade you might consider:

*SELL June (06) Eurodollar at 95.53
*Stop 95.595
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $165 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.245
*Approximate Profit Potential: $710 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

NOTE: This trade will become less risky if the market continues to test support tomorrow without breaking through.
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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I was liking this market short, but not after what I saw today. Standing aside for tomorrow.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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The NAS was a little more subdued than the DOW, but the big range today is scaring me off tomorrow.
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September mini-S&P esU5
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Like they say in the gangster movies "fugedabouit".
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Not fair! We had this market dead to rights and then it bounced today hitting our stops for a $75 loss. I'm still liking the short side, but I'll hold off tomorrow.
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December Oats OZ5
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Not a stellar day in Oats, but enough of a decline that we can safely bring our stops to breakeven for tomorrow. First profit target is support at 142 3/4.
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September Rice RRU5
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Rice is having some serious trend issues. I think I'll avoid it for a while.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Got stopped out of our September short this morning for a $250 profit per contract. The small bounce was halfways expected as the big Bean market is fighting monster support, but a new sell order is just around the corner.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil took us out at breakeven on today's reversal. Not to worry though, we'll have another sell very soon.
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November Soybean SX5
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I should probaby trail and entry order below today's low; however I think I'll give the market one more day before planning a trade. RSI is getting close to a testpoint and this could signal our next sell.
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat is showing us some support; however trading has been so choppy I think I'll just watch for tomorrow. I'd like to take a trade here, but I just don't see anything too promising right now.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Sure, now Feeder's give us a *normal* day. No room to move now though as prices are near the resistance from the contract high. I would expect a reaction here tomorrow.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Cattle are looking more bullish, but will probably take Feeder's lead and bounce off resistance tomorrow. If it does then we might be able to put something together for Wednesday.
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Hogs gave us the bounce off the neckline today. Now it remains to be seen how far prices will retreat. The first support is 6225, which is substantial, but if it fails we could see 6100.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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For a market that was trending so well Copper has definitely off the tracks. Expect more choppiness tomorrow. If we get down to serious support, say at 163.25, then we might get serious with a short trade.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold continued to channel today. While I was favouring a bullish break, I have to admit that things are looking a little more bearish, especially in RSI. I'll run the same buy for tomorrow and will throw in a sell trade as well.

*BUY December Gold at 447.5
*Stop 444.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $280 per contract
*Profit Target: 469.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2180 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*SELL December Gold at 439.3
*Stop 442.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 425.7
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1360 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Silver SIU5
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Silver tagged our hovering exit stop today as prices traded a few ticks through it before reversing. While I would have liked to try and ride the market lower we're still walking with $700 in profit per contract, so it's not all bad. ;-)

If we get another hesitation tomorrow (I hope) then we'll place another sell order.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa's indecisive session is making me think we'll see a bounce off resistance tomorrow. I'll wait for the confirmation before selling, just in case the bulls have a little more left.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee is showing us some support today, and I'm considering selling the low tomorrow; however I think I'll wait to see if we can get another hit or two before committing.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Black Monday in the Cotton thanks to a huge opening gap. This is the worst gap I've had in over a year as well as one of my worst losses in a long time - $500, ouch! I'm a little P.O.'d with this market to say the least.

Definitely nothing here tomorrow.
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November OJ OJX5
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Looks like hurricane Katerina is lending some support to the OJ market. You can run the trade again tomorrow, but I doubt we'll get a fill.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar's back to it's normal song and dance - higher one day, low the next. Nothing here tomorrow.
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RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT (6748) [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]

Erich's Update for Friday, August 26, 2005

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Market Update for Friday, August 26, 2005
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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The AD is flirting with a trend change as rates rallied higher today. I'll keep watching RSI for the next testpoint before shorting.
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September British Pound BPU5
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See, who says crossing your fingers doesn't help? Did you see the Pound trade higher today? That was all because of my crossed fingers. ;-)

I might be a little premature, but I've got to lessen the risk in this position somewhat, so I'm bringing stops in below today's low. First profit target is resistance at 183.19.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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Go figure we'd get the hesitation I was looking for on a Friday. Maybe we'll get really lucky and see some profit taking before the weekend. Either way I'm just watching tomorrow.
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September EuroFX ECU5
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Caught a break today as the Euro gave us a clean fill when rates broke resistance. It's always a challenge balancing risk with range when it comes to these *big* markets, but today the Euro did right by us.

I'm not crazy about all this risk however, so I'm bringing stops below the 123 support line for tomorrow. It might prove to be a little tight, but we'll push the trade.
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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Unusual day in the Yen as rates continue to bounce around a lot. We've got the makings of a small pennant for tomorrow and you could trade it as such, but I think I'll pass.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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Regardless of where you put your exit stop the Peso would have found it today. I had mine just above yesterday's high, so I got stopped right after the open for about $700 in profit per contract. Nice way to go into the weekend, don't you think?
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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Darn Swissy gapped our entry again! This is the second time an opening gap has sidelined a perfectly good trade. Oh well, can't do too much about it now other than sulk.
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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The USD made a good move to the downside today and there is room to bring stops to breakeven if you choose, otherwise leave them above 8800 for one more day.
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Got tagged in the Unleaded trade today as prices ranged below the 185.45 line where we had our stops. We're still walking with over $900 per contract, so I don't feel too bad about that. Nothing new for tomorrow.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Heating oil continued higher, almost getting to our intended profit target *if* we had taken the trade. Expecting a reaction here tomorrow.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Big range in Crude today as well. I think we might be seeing oil prices head lower in a hurry real soon. Even so I don't want to hold an open position over the weekend in this market.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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We're getting closer to selling the ED again as rates showed us resistance today. I'll run the same trade again tomorrow as this is a relatively *safe* market to hold if we have to.

*SELL June (06) Eurodollar at 95.59
*Stop 95.655
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $160 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.245
*Approximate Profit Potential: $860 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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The Dow is looking up as the index gave us the support hesitation we were looking for. I'm going to press my luck and hold out for another stall tomorrow. If we get it we'll probably look at selling.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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Did someone say something about watching the 1560 line? Yeah, okay I missed it by 2.5 points, sorry about that. ;-)

If this weren't Friday we would have an ideal opportunity to bracket the support and resistance and trade the breakout, but since it is Friday I think I'll hold off.
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September mini-S&P esU5
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Got the reaction we were looking for today. Isn't it great how support and resistance works? Yeah, I think so too.

Like the other indices I'm going to hold off taking a position on Friday and hope for a wishy-washy session before recommitting.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Sold corn today as prices broke support. There's not too much you can do with the stops at the moment, but if you *must* tweak, use the 221 resistance to hide the stops.
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December Oats OZ5
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Oats continue to avoid our short order. This isn't a bad thing mind you as all this hesitation has given the market a chance to refresh itself. I'll run with the same trade again tomorrow.

*SELL December Oats at 156 3/4
*Stop 160 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 142 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $700 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September Rice RRU5
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Rice has been true to form with the sideways channel prices seem to be stuck in. If this continues we should see lower prices tomorrow and support at 667-ish.
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September Soybean Meal SMU5
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Turns out selling yesterday was the right thing to do as the market would have gapped our order today thereby voiding our trade.

Prices made a nice move to the downside and you should bring the trade at least to breakeven for tomorrow in anticipation of a bit of a bounce. If you want to cover some profit use the 184.5 - 185 resistance level.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Caught a nice breakout through support today as bean oil prices fell off sharply. Bring stops to breakeven for tomorrow. First profit target is support at 2123.
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September Soybean SU5
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Okay, this one's borderline. If you gave the market a couple of ticks, as per suggestion, you would have sold beans today. If you ran the trade *as is* then you might have been left on the sidelines as beans gapped the entry.

If you are short then you'll want to bring stops at least to breakeven or above 592 to protect some of that profit.
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September Wheat WU5
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If you tighten your stops like I did then you would have got hit today with $225 profit as wheat made a bit of an unexpected bounce. If you're still short this trade you'll want those stops above today's high. First profit target is support at 300 3/4.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Day's like today just leave me scratching my head. Nothing new here tomorrow...maybe ever.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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We must be bordering on the Outer Limits as we're losing control of our horizontal and vertical. Nothing I want to trade here tomorrow.
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Well it's nice to see pigs made a decent trade again. The market made a very clean breakout through resistance and easily found our buy order in the process. Bring stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow, or just below the 83.00 resistance if you want to give the trade a little elbow room.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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Sold copper today on a nice breakout through support. You'll want to bring stops in at least a little for tomorrow's session and might consider the resistance at 166.30 to place stops above.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold is winding up like a spring and I think we might see a breakout really soon. I'll run with the current buy order again tomorrow, but with this channel you could set up a trade either way.

*BUY December Gold at 447.5
*Stop 444.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $280 per contract
*Profit Target: 469.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2180 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Silver SIU5
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Ooooo baby baby! Our patience was rewarded as silver made a big decline through support today. You'll want to bring exit stops in a bit and maybe cover on the other side of the 685 resistance.

Don't be shy about giving a couple of ticks...silver does like to *fudge* the numbers.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCU5
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Got the sell signal in cocoa today, but I have to admit I'm not crazy about holding this market over the weekend. I think I'll just watch tomorrow. If prices do fall off the 1375 line should catch them.
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September Coffee KCU5
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Got filled short in a end of day decline in coffee. Unfortunately we don't have a lot of room to play with the stops and we'll probably have to leave them alone for one more session.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Not the day I was hoping for from Cotton as prices stalled out. I'll bring exit stops in above today's high, or the other side of 4900 for tomorrow. If we see prices bounce here then it's probably a good time to leave.
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September OJ OJU5
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Just watching OJ for the moment. Nothing too interesting however.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar's still all over the place. Today prices fell off sharply, but unfortunately it was a day too late.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT (6748) [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]

"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, August 25, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, August 25, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-23 HI=6-31 LO=6-11 CL=6-19

We opened and climbed very quickly to 116-31. It fell very quickly thwarting our attempt to get one sold at -28/-29. As frequently happens it bounced back up, this time to -30 allowing us the get the sell done at -28. The market made it to 17 and quickly reacted with a bounce. We got kicked out at -19 for 9 ticks, $281. We followed this up with a sell at -14 which was promptly stopped out at B/E. I buttoned it up for the day.

The close at 116-19 leaves us watching 116-16 and 117-00 for tomorrow. The failure at 117-00 was pretty convincing but not definitively so. We retain the ability to get above 117-00 but I think we'll look back in a weeks time and see this number functioned as an effective ceiling during the week.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.015 HI=.020 LO=.015 CL=.017

Still watching and waiting.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=61 HI=15 LO=53 CL=02

We opened at 8360 and headed north from there. Nothing done. I'll stay wth the same numbers for tomorrow.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=70 HI=30 LO=70 CL=17

It gapped above our entry at 7900. I'll stay witht he same numbers tomorrow.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=8.30 HI=3.90 LO=2.60 CL=5.70

I bought 656.40 and stopped at 655.90 for a small $50 loss. I then bought 656.60 and exited at 661.30 for $470. Next we bought 660.40 and exited at 662.90 for $250. We then sold 659.70 which was exited at 653.10 for $660. I ended the day there as I didn't have the focus to carry on. We should have been lkong from about 654.40 and probbly out at 656.70 worst case which would have added another $230 or so.

All the numbers for tomorrow and the rest of the week. Remember 651 is a player.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=3.90 HI=5.70 LO=0.60 CL=2.20

I bought 441.50 today and exited near end of day at 442.00 for $50. $10 Channel tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.60 HI=.80 LO=.15 CL=.67

Cotton gapped to far above 49.00 for us to get in. Looks like we should have sold 48.50 according to TT weekend and been stopped at a small gain or B/E depending how you managed it. You couldn't have done better than making about 25 points, $125. Same numbers tomorrow.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=22 HI=30 LO=03 CL=12

I didn't trade this one either. If you followed TT weekend you should have sold the failure at 1430 and been stopped out at 1412 or 13 for maybe $150 to the good. Nothing showed itself after that. Same numbers tomorrow ...1430, 1390 and 1370.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.23 1/4 HI=2.24 1/2 LO=2.21 3/4 CL=2.22 1/4

Nothing here for us today as we dropped back near contract low. I'll keep my eye on the TT numbers but will also buy a break back above 2.24 1/4 or a failed retest below 2.22 1/2 tomorrow. Stops at a penny and a quarter back. Some might be thinking a stop back at about 2.21 1/4 which from the chart certainly makes sense. However from an RRR point of view I don't think it can be justified.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.31 1/2 HI=3.32 1/2 LO=3.25 3/4 CL=3.28 1/2

I sold 3.31 1/2 today and exited at 3.26 1/2 for 5 cents, $250. Same numbers from TT plus I'll buy a failed retest at 3.25.

Erich's Update for Thursday, August 25, 2005

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Market Update for Thursday, August 25, 2005
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Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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Still on hold for a chance to sell the Aussie Dollar. I know we're getting close, but I don't think tomorrow's the day.
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September British Pound BPU5
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Guess who bought the high of the day? Yep, you guessed it. I hate it when that happens! We're still long but I have to admit that today's session isn't all that impressive. I've got my fingers crossed for tomorrow.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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Darn, I'm still kicking myself for not buying the CD when I had the chance. We're on hold right now until we see resistance again.
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September EuroFX ECU5
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The Euro got close, but no cigar. The day did look bullish on the surface and you could certainly run with the same trade again tomorrow. It's still HIGH risk however, so judge for yourself if you can afford the loss if things go sideways.

*BUY September EuroFX at 123.03
*Stop 122.69
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $425 per contract
*Profit Target: 124.97
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2425 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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The Yen continues to channel and bounce around. I'll pull the trade tomorrow although I do expect to see rates find support.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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Nice day in the Peso today as rates fell off sharply. We're faced with the same management problem for tomorrow however. We've got over $900 in profit as of the close. If you're trying to let the trade run, bring stops in above today's high.

First profit target is 89.775.
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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I'm getting sweaty palms trading the Swiss Franc as the market made a run to our entry, but didn't find it today. I'll run it again tomorrow, but it is a HIGH risk trade.

*BUY September Swiss Franc at 7933
*Stop 7897
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 8107
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2175 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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Sold the US Dollar today as rates broke support. So far so good as the market continued lower for most of the session and you could bring stops above the 8800 level if you wanted for tomorrow.
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Caught a flyer in Unleaded today. Great...higher prices at the pumps, again. At least we picked up $1200 in profits as of the close. You'll probably want to cover the trade at least below the 185.50 support. First resistance target is 192.60.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Heating Oil took off on us today. This is the session I was looking for YESTERDAY! Did you see how nice the trade would have worked?
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Darn it! We had this market dead to rights, and it just wandered enough during the day to whipsaw us before taking off again! It would have been an exceptional day if we had nailed this one too.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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The ED inched higher today as rates found the 50% retracement level. I think we might see a reaction here and am tightening the sell order to reflect today's numbers.

*SELL June (06) Eurodollar at 95.59
*Stop 95.655
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $160 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.245
*Approximate Profit Potential: $860 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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Sure, now the Dow decides to make a move. Give me a hestiation tomorrow and we'll be all over selling you before the end of the week.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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Still looking to see what happens at 1560. It's the last line for the bulls to pull their socks up.
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September mini-S&P esU5
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We called the 1210 support today, now let's see if it gives us a reaction - pretty please!
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Yes I mixed up the numbers in yesterday's corn trade. Thanks everyone for pointing out my error. Still liking the trade for tomorrow.

*SELL December Corn at 219 3/4
*Stop 223 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 205 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $725 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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December Oats OZ5
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I'll run the Oat trade "as is" tomorrow; however we've got slight divergence in RSI and I wouldn't mind seeing prices trade back above 158, that way we can use this support to sell from.

*SELL December Oats at 156 3/4
*Stop 160 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 142 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $700 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September Rice RRU5
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Rice is on a roll as prices continued to rally today. We might get another chance to enter off resistance at 728, but it might take a few days for the market to give us a tradeable signal.
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September Soybean Meal SMU5
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Sold Meal late in the day as prices made a quick dip to the downside. I'm not sure if getting filled this late is a good thing or not, but I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

If you didn't sell today you could certainly look at selling today's low tomorrow. First profit target is support at 176.3.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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You could run with the same Bean Oil trade tomorrow or you could tighten the entry a bit to short below today's support.

*SELL December Bean Oil at 2257
*Stop 2287
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 2123
*Approximate Profit Potential: $804 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September Soybean SU5
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Beans tried to fill our short order today but couldn't break support. You might want to give the market a few more ticks to the downside, or just leave the trade the way we set it up originally.

*SELL September Soybeans at 601 3/4
*Stop 610 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $425 per contract
*Profit Target: 566 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1775 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat continued lower today allowing us to bring stops at least to breakeven, or today's high, if you're looking to let the trade run. If you want to tighten up on the trade, consider placing stops above the 315 intraday resistance.

First profit target is support at 300 3/4.
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5: MEATS
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----------
October Feeder Cattle FCV5
----------
Feeders are looking like they're going to dip, but I can't sell a market that's in an uptrend...at least not yet.
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
I might regret this but I'll hold out for another test of the 8225 resistance. If we get that then I'll get serious about selling again.
----------
October Lean Hogs LHV5
----------
RSI continues to test the trendline so we might see a bounce tomorrow. It would have been nice to see a trendline test as well, but I guess we can't have everything.

*BUY October Hogs at 6235
*Stop 6175
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 6425
*Approximate Profit Potential: $760 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
September Copper HGU5
----------
Ouch! Got tagged by copper today as prices reversed and fell through our exit stops. I normally don't trade a market the day after a loss, but RSI is showing us another trendline test, this time with a break to the downside likely.

I hope I'm not adding insult to injury.

*SELL September Copper at 165.30
*Stop 167.05
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $437 per contract
*Profit Target: 158.15
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1787 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
Still liking the gold trade as prices tested support today. We could treat the current formation as a channel and trade the breakout, but I'll concentrate on the long side for now.

*BUY December Gold at 447.5
*Stop 444.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $280 per contract
*Profit Target: 469.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2180 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
September Silver SIU5
----------
Sold silver today as prices made a good break through the 695 support. We could use the other side of 695 to hide exit stops if you wanted to, otherwise leave them where they are for one more session.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCU5
----------
Cocoa continues to battle the resistance above the market. I'll look at pulling the order today and re-entering if prices confirm resistance tomorrow.
----------
September Coffee KCU5
----------
Coffee fell off resistance pretty hard today, coming right back to old support. We can run the sell order again tomorrow, but bear in mind this can be an extremely volatile market.

*SELL September Coffee at 9380
*Stop 9515
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $500 per contract
*Profit Target: 8635
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2800 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Caught the move to the downside today as prices broke through support. RSI hooked off the trendline nicely confirming the resistance. Hopefully we will see prices continue lower tomorrow so that we can tighten our exit stops.
----------
September OJ OJU5
----------
Nothing in OJ right now. Since the market slipped past us last week we're on hold.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
Stopped out of Sugar today as prices made a quick about face. I'm beginning to remember why I avoided trading sugar for so long.

"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, August 24, 2005

========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, August 24, 2005
========================================================
I was up early today and feeling pretty good, feeling strong so I traded today. I'd call it a 50% effort in that I limited my activity to a few markets. I will distinguish the real from the oberved trades as we work our way through the various markets.

We will have a Webinar tomorrow. Erich will be MIA so I will be holding the fort in his absence. It will probably NOT be the usual 2 hours but I'll do my best to make it worth showing up. Hope to see you there.
========================================================
1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDU5 O=6-03 HI=6-24 LO=6-02 CL=6-17

We had a tough time getting started today as the market threw a couple early fakes at us. We bought 116-03, came within a point of getting stopped at B/E. We then failed after touching -09 so I opted out at -06 for plus 3. That left me in trouble as the low of the failure turned out to be ... you guessed it ... -06. I then had to wait to see -08 before I could get back in which I did at 116-09. From there we rapidly made out way to 116-15 only to fail and dip back to 116-10. Normally I'd have dumped it at -11 but since we didn't get in until -09 I let it go. We resumed the climb eventually making it to 116-24 where we failed. I exited at -22 for 13 ticks. We bounced back up to -24 and failed again. I sold 116-23, I bailed at -19 for another 4 ticks. We made 20 ticks with max risk of 5 points of our own stake, $625.

The close at 116-17 has us very close to the 116-16 line. We will focus there or 117-00 although I think we'll have a very difficult time seeing our way there. Do not be surprised if we don't get our first shot of the day until 116-00.
========================================================
2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDU5 O=.012 HI=.017 LO=.010 CL=.012

Still watching and waiting.
========================================================
3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDU5 O=42 HI=66 LO=18 CL=58

Another power move higher. If we get a shot at selling a failed retest of 8360 ... that's a slam dunk with a stop at 8367. I doubt we'll get that as the night time guys have already got it down to 8333. We'll also take up an ambush stance at 8320 selling break lower with a stop at 8323.
========================================================
4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
========================================================
SFU5 O=03 HI=08 LO=88 CL=88

It hung out all day inside our numbers. I'll stay with the same numbers for tomorrow ... 7900 and 7850.
========================================================
5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTM5 O=9.00 HI=9.80 LO=2.30 CL=8.60

Fun day! Big roller coaster dive and then an easy ride almost back to the open. Ku-ching. I opened the window with a sell of 659.20 which I exited at 657.40 for $180. We climbed back to 659.10 which I viewed as a failed attempt at 660 so sold it at 658.70. The run south ran out of gas at 652.30 so I exited at 653.10 for $640. Yee haw! I turned right around and bought 653.20 about 15 minutes later. The Russell chugged back to 659.20. I could hardly believe my eyes it was so picture perfect a reflection of our numbers. Out at 658.40 raking in another $520. We probably could and should have made one more trade but I was outta' gas. It looks as though we'd have banked another $200 at minimum. Not counting that we picked 'em off for $1340 and never had more than $150 at risk of our own money and that for only about 15 minutes before we rolled the stop to B/E.

All the numbers for tomorrow and the rest of the week. Remember 651 is a player.
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=4.80 HI=5.00 LO=3.30 CL=4.30

Chop, chop, chop. Nothing for us. Same ol', same ol' ... $10 Channels.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.95 HI=.45 LO=.65 CL=.25

I bought breaks above 49.00 3 times today and 3 times I was stopped at B/E. Same numbers from TT for tomorrow.
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COZ5 O=20 HI=26 LO=05 CL=10

Cocoa danced around between our numbers but never gave it up to us. Same numbers ... 1370, 90 and 1430 for tomorrow.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.27 HI=2.28 1/2 LO=2.23 1/2 CL=2.24

We hit it ... 2.28 1/2 ... right out of the box ... and then dropped 4 cents. No trade. Let's stay on the same numbers but add selling a failed retest at 2.28.

If you had the trade pre programmed to buy at 2.28 1/4 on a stop you probably got engaged and are swearing at me as you would have dropped a penny and a quarter. If you're not able to watch and are preentering trades you might want to consider using Erich's work on opening range or widening the entry a tad. Otherwise this is going to happen to you now and again. Of course the solutions I just offered have drawbacks as well. You need to decide which more suits you.
========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.38 HI=3.41 1/2 LO=3.34 1/4 CL=3.36 3/4

Nothing done today. Same numbers for tomorrow.

Erich's Update for Wednesday, August 24, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Wednesday, August 24, 2005
==================================================
Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com

"We should be taught not to wait for inspiration to start a thing. Action always generates inspiration. Inspiration seldom generates action." -Frank Tibolt
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
September Australian Dollar ADU5
----------
Still looking for another chance to sell the AD. I thought about shorting today's support, but I don't feel really comfortable about it, so I think I'll just watch tomorrow.
----------
September British Pound BPU5
----------
Well it looks like it's time to put up or shut up. The BP fell to support and is testing the RSI trendline as per request, so I'll look to buy above resistance on a bounce tomorrow.

*BUY September British Pound at 180.17
*Stop 179.43
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $462 per contract
*Profit Target: 183.19
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1887 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
September Canadian Dollar CDU5
----------
Still looking for another spot to buy into the Canadian Dollar. I suspect we'll see a pause in the action very soon.
----------
September EuroFX ECU5
----------
It doesn't matter how you slice it, you can't get a low risk trade in this market. I'm encouraged by today's higher session which confirms the higher support level and suggests that we might be seeing a trend reversal.

For this reason I'll look to buy above the belt of resistance at the 122.80-ish line; however I'll enter well beyond to give myself half a chance at not getting whipped.

*BUY September EuroFX at 123.03
*Stop 122.69
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $425 per contract
*Profit Target: 124.97
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2425 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
September Japanese Yen JYU5
----------
The wheels might be comming off the recent Yen rally as the market showed us resistance today when rates traded lower. It remains to be seen if the market can hold support, but I'll run the buy order all the same.

It doesn't cost us anything if we don't get filled.

*BUY September Japanese Yen at 9177
*Stop 9153
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 277
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1250 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September Mexican Peso MPU5
----------
The Peso made a nice move to the downside today for us. We have just over $600 in accumulated profits as of the close; however protecting these profits could be a challenge as the Peso might make a gap higher like it did yesterday - absorbing much of the profit in the meantime.

If you want to try and "ride" the trade as far as possible, place exit stops above today's high. If you want to protect more profit consider using intraday resistance at 92.250. First profit target is 89.775.
----------
September Swiss Franc SFU5
----------
Not a very impressive day in the Franc today as rates fell back to trendline support. I'll run the buy order "as is" tomorrow, but we might not get a fill.

*BUY September Swiss Franc at 7933
*Stop 7897
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 8107
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2175 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September US Dollar Index DXU5
----------
Slightly impressed as the USD finding support today. This makes tomorrow's trade look a little more interesting - hopefully if we get a breakout it will be a clean one though.

*SELL September US Dollar Index at 8787
*Stop 8823
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $360 per contract
*Profit Target: 8619
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1680 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
October Unleaded Gas HUV5
----------
Looks like we might get an RSI test out of this market yet. I'll run the same trade tomorrow, but I don't think we'll get a fill. I would like to see the market continue to search for support, then we'll get real close and personal with our entry orders.

*BUY October Unleaded Gas at 183.15
*Stop 181.90
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $525 per contract
*Profit Target: 192.60
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3970 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
October Heating Oil HOV5
----------
That's what I get for being "cute" with the Heating Oil market - whipsaw!

The daily bar doesn't show it, but the market gapped our buy on the open only to fall and find our sell order. The market did make a little headway before finding support and heading higher, stopping us out of our position.

The energies are a little confused right now. Think I'll just watch tomorrow.
----------
October Crude Oil CLV5
----------
Here we are again, right back to the same numbers that whipped us the other day. As apprehensive as I am about losing another $400, we do have an RSI bounce and we're trading right back at the 6620 resistance.

Oh, what the heck...it's only money, right?

*BUY October Crude at 6640
*Stop 6600
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $400 per contract
*Profit Target: 6890
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2500 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
----------
The ED continued higher through the resistance above the market. No matter, we'll run the sell order again tomorrow, and if rates climb higher still we'll adjust the entry to reflect the new numbers. I still maintain that short is the best position for this market at the moment.

*SELL June (06) Eurodollar at 95.54
*Stop 95.625
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $212 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.245
*Approximate Profit Potential: $737 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
----------
September mini-DOW YMU5
----------
Still nothing interesting in the DOW for now.
----------
September mini-NAS NQU5
----------
Okay, so it wasn't the best trade I've ever suggested, but it looked good at the time.

If you were short this trade, then you would have been stopped out this morning as the NAS did a little bounce off yesterday's lows. We've got a bit of support here, but I would like to see the market fall off to the 1560 support, and if we get a reaction here, then we'll get serious about buying.
----------
September mini-S&P esU5
----------
Looking for support at 1210, but other than that I don't see anything that I want to do with this market right now.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
Is corn ready to head lower tomorrow? I think it might be. I considered tightening the entry a bit, but I'll probably run with what we've got. I feel pretty good about shorting last week's low.

*SELL December Corn at 223 1/4
*Stop 219 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 205 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $725 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Oats gave us still another tap on the 158 support area. Looking through the chart you can see this is a pretty influential support line. I'm going to tighten the entry a bit to reflect the 158 support; however it does mean challenging other support on the way down. The original figures are still the "safest".

*SELL December Oats at 156 3/4
*Stop 160 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 142 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $700 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
----------
September Rice RRU5
----------
Rice's trend seems intact as prices traded above the old resistance at 688. We've had a couple of strong sessions this week, so we might see another hesitation tomorrow.
----------
September Soybean Meal SMU5
----------
Looks like we will have another chance to sell this market tomorrow as today was a very bearish/bull session.

*SELL September Soy Meal at 187.7
*Stop 191.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $360 per contract
*Profit Target: 176.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1140 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
I'm holding the bean oil entry where it is, but if we see another higher session tomorrow and an RSI test, then I'll be sure to tighten it up.

*SELL December Bean Oil at 2237
*Stop 2271
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $204 per contract
*Profit Target: 2123
*Approximate Profit Potential: $684 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
----------
September Soybean SU5
----------
Ditto for Beans.

*SELL September Soybeans at 601 3/4
*Stop 610 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $425 per contract
*Profit Target: 566 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1775 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
September Wheat WU5
----------
Sold a nice break through wheat's support today. There isn't too much room to tighten stops at the moment, but if you feel you have to you can use intraday resistance at 321 to hide your exit orders behind.

First profit target is support at 300 3/4.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
October Feeder Cattle FCV5
----------
I'm looking, really...but I still don't see anything worth trading here.
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
Still looking for a chance to sell cattle, but I don't like the numbers we're dealing with right now. There's just too much resistance around here to figure the right numbers to sell from.
----------
October Lean Hogs LHV5
----------
We got the pullback we were looking for and RSI is at a testpoint, but will it bounce? Tune in tomorrow for the answer!
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
September Copper HGU5
----------
We bought copper late today as prices finally broke resistance. Can't do much with the exit stops right now so we'll have to keep our fingers crossed for tomorrow.

First profit target is resistance at 174.90.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
We didn't get a higher session today; however RSI has "refreshed" itself and is trading at the 50% level. As such we might expect a bounce tomorrow and I'll look to buy above resistance at 447 if we get one.

*BUY December Gold at 447.5
*Stop 444.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $280 per contract
*Profit Target: 469.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2180 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
September Silver SIU5
----------
Gee, that looks like a typical day in silver, don't it? ;-)

We're right back where we started, at the 695 support line, so we'll run the same trade as before. No guarantees on this one folks, the market is all over the place.

*SELL September Silver at 693.5
*Stop 698.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 670.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
September Cocoa CCU5
----------
Do you see all the support at 1355? There's at least six hits here...a very strong support line. We'll look to sell this support tomorrow, but you could hold off and wait for the reaction to confirm resistance. It would be a little safer and might clear some of the "clutter".

*SELL September Cocoa at 1347
*Stop 1373
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 1207
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1400 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September Coffee KCU5
----------
It doesn't look like coffee likes the support we're at and is rallying a little higher to find resistance. You could run the trade again tomorrow in case we get one of those crazy coffee days, but I think I'll watch.
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Cotton didn't run away from us today as prices traded within yesterday's range. RSI is also at a testpoint, so we can look to sell here tomorrow.

I wanted to cover the trade above the resistance at 4950; however this left far too much money in the trade for a reasonable risk/reward ratio, we we're having to resort to using intermediate resistance to cover the trade.

*SELL December Cotton at 4857
*Stop 4927
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $350 per contract
*Profit Target: 4647
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1050 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September OJ OJU5
----------
Nothing in OJ right now. Since the market slipped past us last week we're on hold.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
That's not good. Sugar traded within yesterday's range which might lead to a bounce tomorrow. Place exit stops above the resistance at 965 by at least a couple of ticks in case the market backs up on us.

"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, August 23, 2005

========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, August 23, 2005
========================================================
========================================================
1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDU5 O=6-04 HI=6-12 LO=5-22 CL=6-08

The day opened with a fairly easy chance to sell 115-28. It stalled at 23 and your management should have had you out not worse than -25 for a small gainer. The big trade of the day ramped up next. I don't think there was enough there to buy -22 but I thought the set up at -24 was pretty clear. I just happened to be watching and took it buying -25. I bailed at -08 as it went right to 116-10 and showed failure. Cool by me. Out with 15 ticks.

The close at 116-08 plays right into my comments in TT from the weekend about 116-16 being a stout ceiling and we'd be pretty much range bound between 115-16 and 116-16. We'll be looking hard at 116-16 or 116-00 for tomorrow. Use -08 and -24, just don't make it your first trade, -00 or -16 have to come first to set the other two in motion.
========================================================
2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDU5 O=.012 HI=.012 LO=.007 CL=.012

Still watching and waiting.
========================================================
3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDU5 O=89 HI=17 LO=80 CL=16

Remind me again why I wouldn't buy the break above 8280. Geesh. I'll stay on the same numbers for tomorrow.
========================================================
4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
========================================================
SFU5 O=03 HI=08 LO=88 CL=88

We could have gotten off the sell on the break below 7900 today. It would not have produced much and I certainly would not have held it overnight. You should have been out with $100 +/-. I'll sty with the same numbers for tomorrow.
========================================================
5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTM5 O=4.70 HI=9.10 LO=2.40 CL=9.00

We were hanging around 656 as the window swung open for us. Looks like we should have sold at 655.70 and had to exit about 656.30 for a small loss ... maybe $60-70. It should have been a reverse there followed by an exit at 657.60 or .70 for a bit over $100. It then looks like we should have bought 656.50 or so and exited at around 657.50 or so for another small winner around a $100. Next in line from our numbers was a sell at about 655.70/60. This took us down to 652.40. That's below our 653 but not all the way to 649 so we would have wanted to be gone as it broke back above 653. Call it out at 653.40 for maybe $230 sounds reasonable. According to the numbers we should have then bought 654.20/30/40. We made an easy run up to 657.30 so we should have been poised to bail if we slipped back below 657 which is what it did. We should have been gone no worse than 656.60 for another $220 or so. It got real choppy for a bit between 655.50 and 657. We probably would have been flat here but might have jumped a sell at 655.70/80 which didn't work so well. We should have reversed at 656.30/40 losing a little and now long. We made a nice climb to near 660 topping out at 659.10. Again on the "once broken gone on the pullback" theory we should have bailed not worse than 658.70 for about $230 or 40. Worst case we might have gotten banged by the little spike ther eback to 657.90 ... even at that we should have made $150 or so.

All the numbers for tomorrow and the rest of the week. I'm adding 651.
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=4.50 HI=5.70 LO=2.60 CL=3.00

Nothing for us as a good sized gap marked the open. Same ol', same ol' ... $10 Channels.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.25 HI=.50 LO=.10 CL=.86

Pretty easy buy at about 48.20 if you were on our numbers. You should have been gone as it broke 49.20 or .10 ... you should have bagged no less than a buy at 48.20 and out at 49.10 for a minimum of 90 points, $450. I thought this was pretty easy so if your results don't match up relatively closely you need to review this trade and determine why not.

Same numbers from TT for tomorrow.
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COZ5 O=90 HI=17 LO=89 CL=13

My bad, gang. We had FND on the 18th but since I was sorta' indisposed I missed it in the weekend edition of TT and still wrote it up as September. I caught it this morning.

I will buy a retest of either 1370 or 1390 that fails to press lower. I will also buy a breakout above 1430. 1367, 1387 and 1427 are the stops for each of the levels mentioned. The goal is 1530 in all cases. Keep the stop trailing on the heels of higher moves and get the trade to B/E at either 1380, 1400 or 1440 if engaged.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.25 1/2 HI=2.26 3/4 LO=2.24 1/2 CL=2.26

Not quite there yet. Same number for now.
========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.39 HI=3.41 1/2 LO=3.34 1/4 CL=3.36 3/4

Some days this ol' S&R stuff is like shootin' fish in the proverbial barrel. Today was such a day. You should have had an easy sell at 3.41 or so and a smooth ride right on down to 3.34. Text book, perfect. You should have walked away with an easy 5, 6 or even 7 cents.

Same numbers for tomorrow.

Erich's Update for Tuesday, August 23, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Tuesday, August 23, 2005
==================================================
Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com

"We should be taught not to wait for inspiration to start a thing. Action always generates inspiration. Inspiration seldom generates action." -Frank Tibolt
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
September Australian Dollar ADU5
----------
Queer session today as prices rallied but were bearish overall. I wouldn't mind seeing the market continue higher, maybe to resistance at 7580 before backing off. We might start trailing a sell order tomorrow.
----------
September British Pound BPU5
----------
The Pound rallied today and hooked early in RSI. I would like to see rates fall off to test RSI tomorrow otherwise we'll look to buy at 181.00.
----------
September Canadian Dollar CDU5
----------
The CD rallied nicely today, leaving me kicking myself a bit for not looking to buy. We might get another chance off resistance at 8350.
----------
September EuroFX ECU5
----------
Smallish bounce in the EC this morning which might lead to higher rates again tomorrow. I'll hold off for the time being as we have more favourable setups in the USD and Swiss Franc.
----------
September Japanese Yen JYU5
----------
The Yen bounced higher off the trendine today. I might look at buying tomorrow above today's resistance. This is the same plan as what we did a few weeks ago.

*BUY September Japanese Yen at 9177
*Stop 9153
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 277
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1250 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September Mexican Peso MPU5
----------
The Peso "reacted" to last week's big decline. Exit stops should be either above Friday's high, or on the other side of the 93.000 resistance line. Hoping to see the market resume the downtrend very soon. First profit target is 89.775.
----------
September Swiss Franc SFU5
----------
The Swissy followed the Euro higher today confirming our support. It's not the ideal setup for buying but I might look at a buy above 7930's resistance. We can cover the trade below the 7900 support line for a "reasonable" amount of risk.

*BUY September Swiss Franc at 7933
*Stop 7897
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 8107
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2175 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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The US Dollar confirmed resistance today as rates made a serious move to the downside. Looks like we might have a resumption of the downtrend tomorrow.

I would consider selling below today's low and the support at 8800. The ideal stop placement is at 8737; however this is going to leave $500 at risk. Altenatively you could use intermediate resistance at 8823 to cover the trade.

*SELL September US Dollar Index at 8787
*Stop 8823
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $360 per contract
*Profit Target: 8619
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1680 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Whew! That was close!

Unleaded made a run at our entry today, but came up a few ticks short, so our buy order was not engaged before the market reversed. I'm still liking the long position and will run the same trade tomorrow.

*BUY October Unleaded Gas at 183.15
*Stop 181.90
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $525 per contract
*Profit Target: 192.60
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3970 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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While it doesn't look like much of a day, today's range was well over $500 from high to low. It's always extremely tempting to bracket a small day like today and trade the breakout side tomorrow.

In case no one told you, this is a very risk proposition.

*BUY October Heating Oil at 185.30
*Stop 184.55
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $315 per contract
*Profit Target: 193.35
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3380 per contract
*RRR: 10 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*SELL October Heating Oil at 183.80
*Stop 184.55
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $315 per contract
*Profit Target: 178.10
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2390 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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We weren't quite as fortunate with Crude oil today as the market rallied through resistance only to fall off and whipsaw us out of the trade. I hate it when that happens! Nothing new here tomorrow.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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The ED continues to range between support and resistance. I'll continue to look to sell for the short term on a break of support.

*SELL June (06) Eurodollar at 95.54
*Stop 95.625
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $212 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.245
*Approximate Profit Potential: $737 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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Still nothing interesting in the DOW for now.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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Sold the Mini-NAS late in the day as the index pushed through support. Can't do much with the stops right now and we'll have to hope for a big decline tomorrow otherwise the exit order is bound to get tagged.
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September mini-S&P esU5
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Indecisive day for the S&P. I still think we'll see it fall off, but I'll run with the NAS for now.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Corn rallied slightly today, but not enough to make me change my mind about our sell order. Sticking with the sell for tomorrow as well, but if we get another bullish session I'll adjust my shorting figures.

*SELL December Corn at 223 1/4
*Stop 219 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 205 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $725 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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December Oats OZ5
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Oats pulled a little higher today which is really tempting me to try and sell the 158 support line. I'll think I'll leave well enough alone and run with the original order tomorrow, but as with corn, if we see another higher session, I'll adjust my figures.

*SELL December Oats at 154 3/4
*Stop 158 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 142 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $600 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September Rice RRU5
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Got a bounce off the trendline today, which I have to admit was a little unexpected. I thought with the weakening trend we would see Rice break support, but it's holding for now.
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September Soybean Meal SMU5
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Too bad Soy Meal stopped us out at breakeven today. No matter though as we have another chance to sell the market tomorrow should we see a reversal.

*SELL September Soy Meal at 187.7
*Stop 191.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $360 per contract
*Profit Target: 176.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1140 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil rallied slightly, but is still technically bearish so we'll still look to sell. We could see another rally as prices attempt an RSI test.

*SELL December Bean Oil at 2237
*Stop 2271
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $204 per contract
*Profit Target: 2123
*Approximate Profit Potential: $684 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September Soybean SU5
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Beans gapped our exit this morning taking us out of our short position. Here too we can run the same trade as last week in case we see a reversal; however it's looking like an RSI test is likely.

*SELL September Soybeans at 601 3/4
*Stop 310 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $425 per contract
*Profit Target: 566 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1775 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat's the only grain market to trade lower today as prices bounced off the RSI tespoint. This reaction demands we sell the market tomorrow below today's support.

*SELL September Wheat at 319 3/4
*Stop 324 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 300 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $950 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Still nothing in this market.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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I'm thinking we will be selling cattle very soon...just not tomorrow.
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Hogs are looking like they are due for a pullback, but I'm standing aside.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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We have yet another bounce in copper to start off the week. RSI is also holding the trendline, so I might look at buying if we can exceed today's high. There's a little more money at risk here than I normally like, but overall if's a good looking trade.

*BUY September Copper 169.10
*Stop 167.35
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $437 per contract
*Profit Target: 174.90
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1450 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH (because of the dollar amount)
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold seems to be finding support on renewed weakness in the US Dollar. If we see a higher session tomorrow we'll look at buying again.
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September Silver SIU5
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Silver ran away from our sell order today. Too bad because it was a sound trade. We'll pull the trade for tomorrow and just watch.
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7: SOFTS
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September Cocoa CCU5
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Cocoa's getting very close to a testpoint and as such we might expect resistance soon, maybe even off the 1380 - 1390 resistance line. We'll watch tomorrow, but will probably put together a trade for Wednesday.
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September Coffee KCU5
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Okay coffee, I can't ignore you any longer. The market continues to test support and has given us fairly tight numbers to sell from should prices continue lower.

*SELL September Coffee at 9380
*Stop 9515
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $500 per contract
*Profit Target: 8635
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2800 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Cotton CTZ5
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I might end up kicking myself over this, but I'll give cotton one more day to find the RSI trendline before selling. This could shape up to be a very nice trade.
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September OJ OJU5
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Nothing in OJ right now. Since the market slipped past us last week we're on hold.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Got filled short in sugar today as prices finally broke support. If you can afford the risk you can leave stops where they are, otherwise consider bringing them above 975 for tomorrow.