Tuesday, August 23, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition - Part One. Enjoy! http://www.supportandresistance.com/testdrive.html

Erich's Trades for Friday, August 19, 2005

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Market Update for Friday, August 19, 2005
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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The Aussie Dollar continue its hard slide today. I was hoping for a slight hesitation, but this was not the case. We'll probably see the market find support tomorrow, as it's unusual to see currencies move for more than two days in a row.
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September British Pound BPU5
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The BP is normalizing a bit which is a most welcome sight. I refrained from selling it short because I'm not sure of the downside potential, but I do expect the market to find support very soon, after which we will look at another buy.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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The CD headed lower today on a gap as well, shattering the 8250 support. Probably see rates continue lower tomorrow until we get closer to support at 8110.
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September EuroFX ECU5
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Very bearish day in the Euro as rates fell off quickly. I'll be looking for support around 121.30 where we might entertain another buy.
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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The Yen fell lower on a gap today and is resting right on important support at 9050 - 9060. RSI is also at a test point so we might see a bounce tomorrow. If we do, then we'll look at buying next week - if not look for support at 9010.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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Got filled short as the Peso finally fell off today! As long as it was taking this market I didn't think we'd ever see a break, either higher or lower. We can't do too much with our stops just yet, so you might consider leaving them where they are. First profit target is 89.775.
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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The Swissy headed lower today and is officially a bear market now. I'm considering taking a short position, but not before the weekend.
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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The US Dollar had no trouble breaking resistance at 8820 today. This momentum will probably carry the market to the contract highs...but not tomorrow.
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Another big adjustment day in Gas as prices are still looking for support. I think we're getting close though and I would think the 169.10 line is one to keep your eye on.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Heating Oil also headed lower today, but not with the same gusto as Gas. Today's session hinted of support but if it breaks tomorrow look for support at 173.50.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude also looked a little more bullish today, especially with the higher closing price. We'll see if the market shows us support tomorrow, otherwise we might see it dip to 6200.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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Not a big surprise that the ED rallied today. We can run the same trade again tomorrow, but I don't think we'll get filled.

*SELL June (06) Eurodollar at 95.535
*Stop 95.615
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.245
*Approximate Profit Potential: $725 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Low to Moderate
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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Yawn!
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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Boring.
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September mini-S&P esU5
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Zzzzzzz.
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4: GRAINS
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September Corn CU5
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Corn's showing us some resistance today as prices traded in a bearish session overall. A confirmation of resistance tomorrow will get me short next week.
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September Oats OU5
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Oats also hinted of resistance today. With the weekend tomorrow I don't think we'll see a big commitment by the market, so I'll hold off, but I do think we'll be selling very soon.
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September Rice RRU5
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Rice backed up on us, stopping us at/near breakeven today. It does look as though the market is heading lower as RSI is once again testing the trendline. Nothing new tomorrow.
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September Soybean Meal SMU5
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I can't believe that the bean complex is still holding the support line. I'll run the short again tomorrow eventhough it is more risky to do so going into a weekend.

*SELL September Soy Meal at 188.9
*Stop 192.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 176.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1260 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Soybean Oil BOz5
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Bean Oil rallied slightly, but is still technically bearish so we'll still look to sell.

*SELL December Bean Oil at 2237
*Stop 2271
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $204 per contract
*Profit Target: 2123
*Approximate Profit Potential: $684 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September Soybean SU5
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I'm still liking the big bean complex and can't believe we didn't get a breakout today. We'll try again tomorrow but I have to admit I'm a bit nervous.

*SELL September Soybeans at 601 3/4
*Stop 310 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $425 per contract
*Profit Target: 566 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1775 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat's the odd market out as prices rallied instead of declined. I'm hoping to see resistance hold tomorrow but I'm not trading anything here.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Big cattle report out tomorrow, so I don't expect Feeder's to do too much until next week.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Cattle are definitely looking more bullish (no pun) as prices traded higher as some traders try to get a position ahead of tomorrow's report.

I'm sticking with the trend, but I don't expect a fill tomorrow.

*SELL October Live Cattle at 7917
*Stop 7967
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 7637
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1120 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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If it weren't Friday I might consider a buy as Hogs found support today. Still a risky play given yesterday's session, but I do think Hogs are heading higher.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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Funny day in copper as we saw some support but a weak session overall. I'm tempted to sell below yesterday's low, but I'm not crazy about holding over the weekend.
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December Gold GCZ5
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I think we've still got the right idea in gold, but our timing is off. We'll pull the trade for tomorrow.
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September Silver SIU5
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I can't believe that silver is still holding the support line. We'll run the same trade again tomorrow, but it is a HIGH risk proposition.

*SELL September Silver at 691.0
*Stop 695.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 670.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1025 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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7: SOFTS
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September Cocoa CCU5
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Cocoa made a run at our stops today but didn't hit (yet) Hopefully we'll see prices continue lower again tomorrow otherwise we'll be on the sideline for the weekend.
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September Coffee KCU5
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Small day for coffee has me wondering if the market knows which way it wants to go. I still think short is the best option, but prices seem hesitant.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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I'm going to kick myself for this I know it, but I'm going to hold out for an RSI test in cotton. This means I'm not selling this week's support (yet) and will hope to see a higher session tomorrow.
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September OJ OJU5
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I'm getting a little tired of waiting for OJ so I think I'll pull the trade for now.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Looks like sugar is ready to head lower as prices made a double top today. I don't trust what I'm seeing however and think I'll just wait until next week.
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Erich's Trades for Thursday, August 18, 2005

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Market Update for Thursday, August 18, 2005
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FYI
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Our buddy Tom went in for back surgery today. I haven't heard how he made out yet, but you might want to keep him in your prayers. I know he'd appreciate it.

Erich
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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No bounce, no buy...big dip though! Obviously rates didn't like it where they were, but I'm not sure this market is ready to sell just yet. If we see a hesitation from today's move I might put on a sell order. Maybe.
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September British Pound BPU5
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I'd still like to buy the Pound, but I'm still not comfortable with the extremely oversold market. If we see a bit of normalizing over the next few sessions I'll get more serious about getting in.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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Big "about face" day in the CD. I don't like to enter a market after a big day, so I'll stand aside tomorrow, but I'd love to see support at 8250 hold.
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September EuroFX ECU5
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The Euro followed the other markets lower today away from our buy order. Still in question how low rates will go before recovering...I don't think it's too far away.
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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The pullback in the Yen continued today as rates headed slightly lower. I'll place a buy order above today's high in case we see an early reversal, but I think we'll see an RSI test first.

*BUY September Japanese Yen at 9177
*Stop 9153
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 9277
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1250 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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Small move to the downside in the Peso today, but I like the RSI hook so I'll consider tighening my entry figures a bit and enter below 93.200 support.

*SELL September Mexican Peso at 93.175
*Stop 93.575
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 89.775
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1700 per contract
*RRR: 8 1/2:1 *Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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The Franc backed off our buy order today. Think I'll give this one the day off tomorrow.
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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We're against strong resistance at 8820. If we see rates break here then we'll probably see a test of the contract highs, otherwise a bounce will send rates lower to 8620.
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Ouch! Not the day I was hoping for, but it was a definite risk that prices would briefly break the double high before reversing...which is what they did.

Nothing new here tomorrow, but expect prices to continue to normalize a bit.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Heating Oil was a little more forgiving as prices reversed without rallying, so the market never found our buy order. Still expect more of a retracement tomorrow.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Ooooo baby baby! Crude did a monster reversal today which lead the charge for the other two energies. Also expecting more a reversal tomorrow.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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Two hips and hooray! The ED gave us both our hook and resistance confirmation today. Still like the "safe" sell from yesterday, but you could certainly sell below today's low and cover above the high as an alternative.

*SELL June (06) Eurodollar at 95.535
*Stop 95.615
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.245
*Approximate Profit Potential: $725 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Low to Moderate
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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Likely to follow the S&P lower tomorrow, but nothing I see worth trading.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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Still looks weaker, but nothing I want to try trading.
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September mini-S&P esU5
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Looks the weakest of the bunch, but again nothing worth trying to pick up on.
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4: GRAINS
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September Corn CU5
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Gee, who was that smart trader who said we would see a bounce at the 208 area? ;-) Hoping to see another higher session tomorrow so we can get serious about selling again.
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September Oats OU5
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If Oats lead the way, then we should see another higher day in the grains tomorrow, including this one. Maybe we'll finally get a chance to sell!
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September Rice RRU5
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Rice faltered slightly today as prices didn't trade too much higher than yesterday. You could bring stops up a bit if you wanted (675) or just leave them at breakeven for tomorrow, but the trend seems to be weakening, so I'm not sure what to expect.
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September Soybean Meal SMU5
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Hello! Nice set up in Soy Meal today to sell the market below obvious support. We've got more support nearby, but the trend is building strength so this could turn out to be a nice short. At the moment it is still a bit of a crap shoot though.

*SELL September Soy Meal at 188.9
*Stop 192.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 176.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1260 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Soybean Oil BOz5
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Same setup, different flavour, also a bit of a crap shoot.

*SELL December Bean Oil at 2237
*Stop 2271
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $204 per contract
*Profit Target: 2123
*Approximate Profit Potential: $684 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September Soybean SU5
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Beans seem to have the most favourable setup of the three as we can encorporate the support at the bottom of the channel into the trade and use recent support to cover the position.

*SELL September Soybeans at 601 3/4
*Stop 310 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $425 per contract
*Profit Target: 566 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1775 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat's heading higher as expected. Hopefully we'll see another rally tomorrow which will allow us another sell.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Feeders are still out wandering in the field. Nothing new happening here...but remember there is an important cattle report out this Friday.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Cattle are still chicken as the market continues to trade away from our sell order. There's a biggie report due out Friday, so we'll run the sell for tomorrow and through in a buy trade for the report.

*SELL October Live Cattle at 7917
*Stop 7967
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 7637
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1120 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Did someone mention resistance at 6220? Are you beginning to see how powerful support and resistance can be? Hogs made a huge opening gap and big reversal - a classic fade for those unfortunate enough to get caught today.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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Got stopped out with $300 in profit as copper made a rather abrupt reversal today. Looks like we might be seeing a change in trend, but the support at 159.50 is the last straw for the bulls.
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December Gold GCZ5
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I told you the 452 line was strong, didn't I? ;-) Gold thought so too as prices took a major dip today. I'll run the buy order again tomorrow, but I doubt we'll get filled.

*BUY December Gold at 452.7
*Stop 448.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $400 per contract
*Profit Target: 469.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1660 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September Silver SIU5
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What's this? Is silver giving us a tradable formation? Just a minute while I check to see if there's a pink elephant flying by.

Hope silver doesn't take my joking too seriously and hand me a whipsaw tomorrow, but I'd look to sell the recent low and cover above today's support.

*SELL September Silver at 691.0
*Stop 695.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 670.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1025 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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7: SOFTS
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September Cocoa CCU5
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And this boys and girls is why we place a "just-in-case" order in a market like cocoa...just in case, which is exactly what happened today.

Can't move our stops just yet (unless you wanted to) but hopefully tomorrow we can lessen our risk. First profit target is support at 1207.
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September Coffee KCU5
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Coffee still looks like a sell, but I can't justify the risk exposure since we need to sell below the big dip day. Maybe tomorrow.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton continues to pull higher today, which is fine with me. I want to sell this market again, but I think I'll hold off until we get closer to an RSI testpoint - probably tomorrow.
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September OJ OJU5
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The OJ trade is losing a lot of its flavour as prices are taking far too long to find the order and head lower. This makes me think we'll see the market rally instead. We could run the trade anyway, it won't matter if prices don't find the order.

*SELL September OJ at 8985
*Stop 9165
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $270 per contract
*Profit Target: 8385
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar stopped us out at breakeven today as prices bounced early off support. Not a big surprise for a market like sugar though, which is choppy at the best of times.

Nothing new tomorrow.

"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, August 17, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, August 17, 2005
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The big "60" ... hard to accept, hard to imagine. I can remember as a kid about 9 or 10 thinking about being 55 at the turn of the century. I couldn't even conceive of being 60. Thanks to all who sent your good wishes for both the birthday and the surgery. I don't remember ever looking forward more to a birthday present than I am the surgery tomorrow.

This will be my last commuication until the weekend. Be careful and smart with your trades ... manage them like I know you can.
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=5-17 HI=6-16 LO=5-17 CL=6-05

We opened up buying at 115-21 and getting stopped out at -23 for plus 2. I bought -22. I patiently rolled right along with a nice move up. At 116-14 I had the stopped rolled to -11. It came right after us. Out at -11 for 21 ticks, 656. I buttoned up shop at that point. By doing so Iit looks as though I might have missed one more play, selling -14 that would have made another 10 or 11 ticks.

The close at 116-05 makes 116-00 and 116-16 the focus for tomorrow.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.002 HI=.007 LO=.000 CL=.005

Still watching and waiting.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=21 HI=64 LO=21 CL=46

Saw our number but it was headed the wrong direction. Nothing done. I'd give 8330 a run tomorrow on a sell.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=54 HI=93 LO=41 CL=91

Danced all around us but never gave us a shot at an acceptable entry. I'd take a run at selling a failed retest of 8000 tomorrow if given the chance.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=6.50 HI=7.50 LO=4.60 CL=4.90

We had a nice start to the day. We sold 664.80 and hung on for a quick run right to 660. I bailed at 660.40 for $440. Happy Birthday, Tom. I bought 660.20 and exited at 661.40 picking up a little profit, $120. We then sold 659.80 and bailed at 658.20 on the "once broken theory" for another small take of $170. Sold 1 at 659.60 and out at 658.10 for $150. Next up we sold 659.60 again. It was pretty clear when this run ended we were headed higher so I bailed at 657.60 picking up another $200. I quit early and missed another sell at 660 that would've made another 4300 or so. All the numbers for tomorrow and the rest of the week. Go get 'em gang.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=6.30 HI=1.80 LO=6.20 CL=1.50

A big turn around and back to 450. Nothing for us. Same ol', same ol' ... $10 Channels.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.25 HI=.65 LO=.01 CL=.02

They did their best to make it look like a bottom. A break above 48.65 is worth a buy. I'd think the stop is 48.57 and I'll be at B/E at 48.71. This is a risky trade and not suitable for the risk adverse.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=40 HI=55 LO=39 CL=41

Nothing for us. I will stay with the numbers from TT ... 1356 and 1400.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.24 HI=2.25 3/4 LO=2.22 CL=2.22 1/4

lets buy the bounce off 2.22.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.31 1/2 HI=3.36 1/2 LO=3.24 1/2 CL=3.25

We bought 3.32 1/2 and exited at 3.35 for 2 1/2 cents, $125. We sold 3.31 3/4. I thought long and hard about holding the short trade overnite. Since I doubt I'll be able to watch anything tomorrow, I exited at 3.25 1/2 for 6 1/4 cents, $312. I'm just a watcher at this level for tomorrow. I would buy the break above 3.28 tomorrow.

Erich's Trades for Wednesday, August 17, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, August 17, 2005
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"I am a slow walker, but I never walk backwards." - Abraham Lincoln
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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Interesting...the AD found support at 7640, right near the trendline. If we get a bounce here tomorrow I *might* consider a buy.
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September British Pound BPU5
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I know I'll probably regret this but since the Pound is so oversold I'll hold off an see if the market breaks the support at 180.25...let's hope so, so we can buy at a better price.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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We got our wish as rates declined enough to bring the 8350 resistance line into play. It might be a little premature, but I'll look to buy a break of today's high and cover under 8350.

*BUY September Canadian Dollar at 8373
*Stop 8347
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 8495
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1220 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September EuroFX ECU5
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Got lots of money to play with? Good, cus you're going to need it if you plan on trading the RSI bounce in the Euro tomorrow.

*BUY September EuroFX at 124.07
*Stop 123.57
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $625 per contract
*Profit Target: 126.93
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3575 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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Looks like the Yen is about to enter pullback mode. Expect a day or two of lower rates before we look to buy again.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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The Peso can not seem to overcome the 94.000 resistance barrier. Notice today's extremely small session AND the RSI bounce. Lower rates are coming tomorrow, I can almost guarantee it and while I thought about getting more agressive on a sell, I'll stick with original numbers.

*SELL September Mexican Peso at 92.775
*Stop 93.275
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 89.775
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1500 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: Low to Moderate
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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Not quite to the RSI test just yet; however today's session definitely "felt" support. A slightly more palatable version of the Euro trade...but not by much.

*BUY September Swiss Franc at 8017
*Stop 7977
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $500 per contract
*Profit Target: 8227
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2625 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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Officially in pullback mode now, and we could look at selling short tomorrow; however I'll wait one more day to see if we can't get better numbers to work with.
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUU5
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Will you look at that? A double hit on 190.30! We will likely see a reversal here tomorrow, but a break above will get me long again. This market is extremely overbought and you get a nose bleed at these heights, but there's no denying the strength of this trend!

*BUY October Unleaded Gas at 190.55
*Stop 189.45
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $462 per contract
*Profit Target: 198.45
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3318 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Like Unleaded Gas, I would like to see prices retrace a little more; however we need to be ready for the eventual resumption of the trend. As enticing as the potential profits are here, you need to be very careful as the energies can be extremely unforgiving.

*BUY October Heating Oil at 194.25
*Stop 192.90
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $567r contract
*Profit Target: 204.85
*Approximate Profit Potential: $4452 contract
*RRR: 7 1/2
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Ditto for Crude, but again we need to be ready for the trend to continue.

*BUY October Crude at 6805
*Stop 6765
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $400 per contract
*Profit Target: 6995
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1900 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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The ED tested the 9560 resistance today as we hoped. I've got a lot more confidence in our sell order now, whether or not the market fills the order is beside the point, but if we do get filled we should be on the right side of the trade.

*SELL June (06) Eurodollar at 95.505
*Stop 95.575
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.245
*Approximate Profit Potential: $650 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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Likely to follow the S&P lower tomorrow, but nothing I see worth trading.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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Looks like this index is bound to slip some more as we get closer to the weaker fall months. Is it time to pay the Piper for all those rallies?
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September mini-S&P esU5
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The S&P backed off resistance in a big way today, but that's okay since our order to buy was never filled. Probably see the slide continue tomorrow.
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4: GRAINS
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September Corn CU5
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Corn is trading near weekly support which could cause a bounce tomorrow. That would be okay though as it would give us another chance to short this market.

Maybe this time we won't get gapped.
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September Oats OU5
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Smallish session in Oats today. Still looking for another chance to sell here as well.
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September Rice RRU5
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Nice day in the Rice pits as the market easily found our buy order and rallied enough that we can bring stops to breakeven for tomorrow. First profit target is 713.5.
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September Soybean Meal SMU5
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Well we got the support hiccup we were looking for today. The only thing that bothers me (you knew there had to be something didn't you?) is how close we are to the 62% retracement. Sometimes this translates into a bigger bounce and would give us a better selling price.

I'll hold off one more day and keep my fingers crossed the market doesn't run away from us.
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December Soybean Oil BOz5
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Ditto for Bean Oil. Crossing my toes too.
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September Soybean SU5
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Double ditto for Beans. Crossing my eyes.
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September Wheat WU5
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Not fair! Not fair! Did you see what wheat did today? That's not right! We had this market dead-to-rights and it backed up and found our stops...just barely too!

I'm going to find a wheat farmer and beat him up tomorrow for this!
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Anybody have any idea what Feeder's are up to? Yeah, me neither.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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There's Cattle, fishing around the support line, looking for orders. Fortunately ours was well below the market and I'll run it again tomorrow. Hopefully the only way prices can get this low is if there is serious downside momentum, which we might not get until after Friday's Cattle report is released.

*SELL October Live Cattle at 7917
*Stop 7967
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 7637
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1120 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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We lost much of our upside potential in this trade with yesterday's big move. I'd like to buy but the resistance at 6220 is cramping my style.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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Copper got very close to finding our first profit target today coming up a few ticks short however. It might be a good idea to bring those stops up just under the 170.50 line as a reversal (short term) looks likely tomorrow.

Don't want to give back all our hard earned profits do we?
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold is poised to resume the trend on renewed weakness in the US buck. I'll look to buy the market above the very strong resistance at 452 and try and trade it to a rounded bottom formation.

*BUY December Gold at 452.7
*Stop 448.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $400 per contract
*Profit Target: 469.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1660 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September Silver SIU5
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Silver doesn't give me the same warm 'n fuzzy feeling as gold does at the moment, so I think I'll pass.
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7: SOFTS
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September Cocoa CCU5
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Cocoa is fighting monster long term support right now so if you're still short this market bring stops in above today's high to protect profit in case we see a bounce.

This support also gives us another chance to sell this market if prices continue lower. Ideally I'd like to see a bit of a pullback, but just in case...

*SELL September Cocoa at 1327
*Stop 1347
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1207
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1200 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Coffee KCU5
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If we can get coffee to give us one more pullback day then we'll look at selling it again. I'm just a little too chicken to try it after yesterday's huge move.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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We might have squeezed cotton a little too hard as the market found our exit stops today. It was a nice run though with a little over $1500 in profit per contract.

Standing aside for tomorrow, but now that we're flat I'd love another pullback day like today.
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September OJ OJU5
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OJ continues to shy away from our sell order, but that's okay. RSI is heading higher and I fully expect prices to follow, but I'll stick with the sell order for one more day.

*SELL September OJ at 8985
*Stop 9165
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $270 per contract
*Profit Target: 8385
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar continued lower today allowing us to bring in our stops to breakeven. There's a little more than $100 in accumulated profit per contract, so adjust your stops accordingly if breakeven is not enough for you.

First profit target is support at 931.

"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, August 16, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, August 16, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=5-26 HI=5-28 LO=5-18 CL=5-21

They dealt us a pretty narrow range today. I missed the first move down as it just touched -28 and then broke hard. I bought -21 and was stopped at -25 for 4 ticks. I bought -21 twice more and was stopped at B/E on both. I bought -20 and exited at -25 as the end of session drew near. 9 ticks on the day. About the only way to look at it is +9 is better than a loss. Total take $281.

The close at 115-21 has us intent on 115-16 and 116-00. Again, we'll look at any -08 or -24 where the set up is compeling.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.002 HI=.005 LO=.002 CL=.005

Still watching and waiting.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=72 HI=77 LO=31 CL=47

We didn't quite get there today putting in a low at 8331. Almost scary ain't it? I'll play the 8330 tomorrow if they give us a chance.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=01 HI=08 LO=80 CL=91

A welocome failure today but no where near drastic enough the engage our number at 7960. I'll stick with that for tomorrow and see if we get some follow thru.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=0.10 HI=9.00 LO=6.70 CL=6.40

I sold 659.70 and exited at .90 for a small $20 loss. I then bought 660.20. I bailed at 662.60 for $240. I next sold 659.60 and was stopped at 660.10 losing $50. I sold 659.50 and exited at 657.10 on the "once broken theory" picking up $240. Next up I sold 659.50 and stopped myself out at B/E. I bought 660.40 and exited at 665.40 for $500. I had to take a little breather. I then bought 665.40 and exited at 668 for $260. I closed up shop. I was out of gas.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=8.90 HI=0.40 LO=6.30 CL=7.60

WEell, whadda' ya' know. They gave us one today ... a little one. I sold 448.60. After we broke 447 I rolled the stop to 447.10 they immediately came and got us with a little bit of slippage ... out at 447.20 for $140.

Same ol', same ol' ... $10 Channels.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.50 HI=.65 LO=.80 CL=.93

Another day of the bear's favorite game. We gapped lower and just kept going. Watching, but seeing nothing.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=79 HI=90 LO=55 CL=56

Another new contract low. I think an interesting set up is present at 1356. I will buy a break above that number with a stop at 1353. Target is 1400. Keep the RRR well in control along the route. This is not a trade for smaller accounts or weak hearts.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.26 1/2 HI=2.27 1/4 LO=2.23 CL=2.23 1/4

The gap lower never let us approach the starting gate. Almost dropped to contract low. I'll buy a bounce off 2.22 1/2 tomorrow with a penny and a quarter stop. A very weak day to say the least. If we can't find reasons to bounce off the last line of support Corn is in trouble with a capital "T'.

This pretty much puts a stake in the heart of our option spreads. Barring somehting bordering on miraculous we are toast. I WILL remeber this the next time I've tripled my money .
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.33 1/2 HI=3.35 1/4 LO=3.30 CL=3.31 1/4

Just as did Corn they leapfrogged under our number leaving us with nothing to do. When we finally got to 3.32 it zoomed thru it so strongly I couldn't get it done at a price better than 3.31 so I just let it go. I'll buy a break back above 3.32 or I'll sell a failed retest there as it turns lower. That is right where we are in the overnight session so we'll see if they give us a play in the morning.