Wednesday, August 17, 2005

Erich's Trades for Tuesday, August 16, 2005

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Erich's Update for Tuesday, August 16, 2005
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"I am a slow walker, but I never walk backwards." - Abraham Lincoln
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5

Looking like we'll get a setback for the next few days nothing new here.
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September British Pound BPU5
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The Pound hesitated as per request, but the market is so oversold I'm going to get picky and expect a bit of a pullback before buying.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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The CD hesitated today as well and while we could buy above Friday's high, the strong support at 8350 is too far away to bring into the trade. With a little luck rates will fall off tomorrow so we can use this strong resistance area.
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September EuroFX ECU5
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Big reversal. Don't like anything here.
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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The Yen is struggling with the 9200 level, and I'd really like to see a pullback before buying.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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The Peso looked very strong today as the market broke the RSI trendline to the upside. I would expect rates to continue higher tomorrow and will run the weekend buy scenario.

*BUY September Mexican Peso at 94.150
*Stop 93.650
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 97.750
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1800 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL September Mexican Peso at 92.775
*Stop 93.275
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 89.775
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1500 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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Looks like it's heading lower. I'll hold off until we see an RSI test.
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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If you were short the US Dollar last week, then you're probably not short anymore as rates bounced higher off the 50% level. Still looking to sell, but I'll give it the day off tomorrow.
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2: ENERGIES
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September Unleaded Gas HUU5
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Got the hesitation I was waiting for today and now I'm too chicken to do anything with it. I'll press my luck an see if we can get one more lower session tomorrow.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Ditto for Heating Oil. Notice the nice bounce off the "other" trendline.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude stopped us out shortly after the open as prices came up a few ticks short of our profit target. No matter as we banked about $3700 in profit per contract. That helped pay for part of our daughter's wedding!

Here too we can expect to see crude continue to rally but I wouldn't mind seeing a few "off" days. Holding tight for tomorrow.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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We might be a touch early selling the ED as this market has a tendency to range a bit before changing direction, but RSI has given us a hook, albeit a little earlier than expected.

I'll look to sell below Friday's low, although below 95.50 would be even better. Next profit target is the big support at 95.23

*SELL June (06) Eurodollar at 95.505
*Stop 95.575
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.245
*Approximate Profit Potential: $650 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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Channel-city. Nothing too intersting right now.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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Back in familar territory at 1615, but we're too close to the contract high to formulate a profitable trade right now.
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September mini-S&P esU5
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The S&P still looks strong as rates continue to hold the trendline. I'll look at buying this market long on a break of secondary resistance and use today's resistance to cover the trade.

*BUY September mini S&P at 1242.75
*Stop 1237.75
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 1278.75
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1800 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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4: GRAINS
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September Corn CU5
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Don't you hate it when you've got a market cornered and your trade gets voided by a gap? Yep, me too.

Nothing we can do right now but wait for the next support so we can enter again. The good news is the downtrend is picking up some much needed momentum.
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September Oats OU5
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Not nearly as impressive as the other grains today. Nothing for tomorrow.
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September Rice RRU5
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I have a lot more confidence in the support on the exit than I do in my chosen entry, but if prices rally then reverse below 665, it will be our cue to leave. Next profit target is the 50% retacement at 715.

*BUY September Rough Rice at 672.5
*Stop 663.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $190 per contract
*Profit Target: 713.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $810 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September Soybean Meal SMU5
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I guess there's not question where the Soy complex is heading next. Now we just need to wait for support so we can re-enter the market. Don't think we'll have to wait too long though.
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December Soybean Oil BOz5
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Ditto for Bean Oil.
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September Soybean SU5
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Double ditto for Beans.
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September Wheat WU5
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Go figure that wheat was the "reasonable" market today and fell off very nicely finding our sell order on the way down. Expect prices to continue lower tomorrow.

Leave stops where they are if you can, otherwise bring them to the other side of 319. Maybe we can get to breakeven tomorrow.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Feeder's remain wishy-washy right now. Think I'll just keep watching.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Don't you hate it when a market calls your bluff? I sure do. And if any market ever wants to see if you're bluffing cattle is the one that will test you.

Prices gave us the hesitation we were looking for today and while I fully expect a bit of a bounce here over the next few days, I will place an order below the contract low in case the market does fall off further.

There you go cattle...who's bluffing now?

*SELL October Live Cattle at 7917
*Stop 7967
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 7637
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1120 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Pigs definitely wanted to go higher today as the market gave us a big rally. Hoping for some resistance on last week's highs so we can plan another buy.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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Got a nice fill in copper today as prices rallied without ever looking back. Bring stops to breakeven for tomorrow. First profit target is 174.90.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Hiccup day in Gold as the market is about to adjust a bit for last week's big rally. First support is at 444 and if this holds we might consider a buy the day after.
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September Silver SIU5
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I can tell you that it's very likely that silver is going to 685, but it beats the heck outta me how to put together a decent trade here.
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7: SOFTS
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September Cocoa CCU5
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The first day since cocoa's bear rally began that the market was unable to post something reasonably lower than the day before. Prices are quite oversold and we're up against strong weekly support so a bounce might be in the forecast.

Bring exit stops above the 1360 resistance for tomorrow.
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September Coffee KCU5
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In case you didn't recognize it, that's a "holey moley" day.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton continues to be super cooperative as prices almost reacted our second profit target today. If you're not short this market you still need to wait for support to form in order to get in, otherwise it's just too unpredictable.

Bring exit stops to 4835 (or tighter) if you want to squeeze the market. Next stop is support at 4756.
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September OJ OJU5
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We saw OJ attempt a rally today only to fall off to support before the close. I'm not getting the same warm fuzzy feeling I had before about our trade, but I'll stick to my guns for tomorrow.

*SELL September OJ at 8985
*Stop 9165
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $270 per contract
*Profit Target: 8385
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Sugar SBV5
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Wow, what a day as prices bounced off resistance and barely broke support. We're currently short this market but can't do too much with our stops right now. First profit target is support at 931.
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Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition

Today you get the full version of Part One of the Big Weekend Edition again, seeing as how it is undergoing a remodel and we'd like your input. :)

http://www.supportandresistance.com/testdrive.html

Erich's and Tom's Trades for Friday, August 12, 2005

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Erich's Update for Friday, August 12, 2005
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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Got a nice clean break in the Aussie Dollar today as rates rallied through primary and secondary resistance to find our order. Bring stops to breakeven for tomorrow. First profit target is resistance at 7849.
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September British Pound BPU5
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Yep, the Pound continued to rally today getting near our intended profit target. This market is beginning to trend very well and we'll look for another buy next week.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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Darn, darn, darn! We had this one cornered but the opening gap voided our buy order. Nothing we can do with it now as we have to wait for resistance again.
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September EuroFX ECU5
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Day late...dollar short. Today the Euro decides to rally. I knew we were on the right side of this trade, unfortunately we didn't ride it out.
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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Wow, the Yen is really making tracks to the upside. We'll wait for resistance and another chance to buy in when appropriate.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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The Peso continues to tackle the 94.000 line. RSI is at a test point so we will probably see a bounce tomorrow. For this reason I'm adjusting the entry a bit to reflect today's range.

*BUY September Mexican Peso at 94.150
*Stop 93.650
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 97.750
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1800 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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Don't even talk to me about this market...I'm still steaming from yesterday.
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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Good day in the US Dollar as rates took a serious tumble to the downside. We're near the 50% level so we might expect a bounce tomorrow. Stops should at least be at breakeven or above the 8710 resistance.
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2: ENERGIES
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September Unleaded Gas HUU5
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So much for the resistance at the "other" trendline coming into play. A moon-shot day for Gas, but nothing we can deal with tomorrow.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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I'm not too happy with yesterday's ranging whipsaw only to see such a strong rally today in Heating Oil. We're approaching resistance at 195 which was our profit target. With a little luck we'll see some resistance here.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude continues to make up for the missed opportunity in the other two energy markets as prices rallied higher again today. Time to do something with the stops. If you're trying to ride the market higher (which isn't a bad idea) then you'll probably want to use the mild support on today's open.

Bear in mind that we have about $1300 in accumulated profits and it would sure hurt to give that back, so bringing stops closer to the close (maybe under 6660) wouldn't be a bad idea either.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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The ED is getting close to reversing again, and tomorrow might be the day. I was hoping to get a little closer to an RSI test but just in case we see an early reversal I'll look to sell tomorrow below yesterday's low.

I'm never crazy about doing this before a weekend, but this market does seem to be trending very well. If rates continue higher we'll look at selling from 9560.

*SELL June (06) Eurodollar at 9542
*Stop 9547
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 9523
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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I'm lookin' but there's nothing I see worth trying. Standing aside for tomorrow.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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The NAS continues to bounce between support and resistance. We could look at bracketing today's range and trading the breakout but I don't think I want to hold this over the weekend.
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September mini-S&P esU5
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The S&P continues to look strong as rates continue to honour the trendline. I have a bad feeling this is going to be another "got in a day too early" market tomorrow. Standing aside, but I do expect a rally.
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4: GRAINS
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September Corn CU5
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Corn rallied a bit today, but I still am cautious about buying the market right now. If we see a lower session tomorrow I'll look at selling on Monday.
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September Oats OU5
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Ditto for Oats. The market is nearing resistance and I'd welcome a bear session tomorrow.
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September Rice RRU5
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As suspected, rice fell off today stopping us out of our trade. I'll wait for an RSI test before I look at re-entering...if at all.
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September Soybean Meal SMU5
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Don't you hate it when a market like Soy Meal gives you a set up for a Friday? I sure do. But the tight range of the last few days is too much to bear.

We still have all that nearby support to deal with, but if we get filled I'll swing for the fences and go for the ultimate profit target.

*SELL September Soy Meal at 201.7
*Stop 204.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 187.7
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1400 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Soybean Oil BOz5
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Getting a similar set up in bean oil, but it's not as inviting so I think I'll pass on this one.
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September Soybean SU5
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The big beans are giving us the same look as bean meal, so we'll treat the trade the same.

*SELL September Soybeans at 638 3/4
*Stop 644 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300r contract
*Profit Target: 618 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1025 contract
*RRR: 3 1/2
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat looks like it's going to try for an RSI test in the next few days. Standing aside until we get closer to important resistance.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Leave it up to Feeder Cattle to call my bluff today and rally higher. Okay, we can look at buying the high, but I have to admit I'm not all that crazy about this trade as the market trend is indecisive.

*BUY October Feeder Cattle at 107.12
*Stop 106.45
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $337r contract
*Profit Target: 109.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1187 contract
*RRR: 3 1/2
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Not a pretty day as Cattle prices traded higher, taking us out of our short trade. Similar setup to what we're seeing in Feeders and a buy is an option above today's high. I think I'll hold off though.
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February Pork Bellies PBG6
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Still waiting for bellies to smarten up...I know, you're heart broken I haven't given you a belly trade. ;-)
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Same ole stuff as yesterday. Still looking for a 5770 support test.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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Copper inched higher today, but not high enough to get me to buy before the weekend. Ideally we'll see a contract high test tomorrow.
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August Gold GCQ5
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Gee, did I say Gold was looking a "little" more bullish? Talk about an understatement as prices made a huge rally today. Have to stand aside tomorrow though and hope for a reaction.
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September Silver SIU5
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Ditto for Silver.
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7: SOFTS
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September Cocoa CCU5
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Cocoa found our first profit target today. If you're still short this trade consider bringing stops to just above today's high.
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September Coffee KCU5
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Still waiting for something to happen here.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton made a run at our stops today, so you might have gotten hit...with a profit however. If you're still short this market then bring stops in above today's close as we're likely to see a reaction at 4950.
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September OJ OJU5
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OJ is trying to entice us to make another trade, but I don't think I'll bite before the weekend.
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October Sugar SBV5
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If sugar rallies tomorrow then that will be our cue that it's safe to re-enter the market.

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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, August 12, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=4-04 HI=5-00 LO=4-03 CL=4-29

We opened up with a pretty clear, I thought, set up at -08. When it finally gave me color ... green ... it was at -10 and never allowed me a better in than -11. I didn't take it but should have as it turned out. Oh Well. I sold -14 a bit later. I exited at -08 for 6 ticks. We backed up some and traded both sides of -08 for quite some time. I bought -09. We took off north with some gusto. We went thru -16 like the proverbial hot knife thru butter. I was stopped out at -23 after we'd touched -25. Out with 14 ticks. After a small pullback to -19, I bought 21. I was stopped out at -27 for 6 more giving me 26 total for the day.

Today's close at 114-29 has us looking up at 115-00 and south to 114-16 for tomorrow. Green light is o to trade -08 and -24 IF the setup is godd and strong.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.000 HI=.010 LO=.000 CL=.000

I got stopped out at 96.010 for a $25 gain. I'm looking for 96.020 to show. I'll take it short again on a failure or buy a break above .025.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=94 HI=44 LO=88 CL=31

We settled today at 8331. The only trade I'm interested in is selling a break below 8280.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=10 HI=41 LO=05 CL=32

The 8032 close leaves us in pretty lofty territory. I know I will sell a break below 8000. There's almost enough structure to do a trade right where we are ... buy a break above 8040. It's definitely a borderline trade. Lower risk tolerance people should leave this one alone.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=2.00 HI=8.20 LO=9.60 CL=7.30

We had very nice days on Tuesday an wednesday. Si did you if you just focused on our numbers. The full array of TT numbers for tomorrow plus we've added 668 to the mix.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=4.00 HI=2.70 LO=3.80 CL=0.90

$10 channel and 443 again tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.40 HI=.85 LO=.70 CL=.75

We're back near contract lows again. I will buy a failed attempt to break 49.50 tomorrow or I will buy a break above 50.60.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=79 HI=90 LO=55 CL=56

New contract lows set today. My hands are tied until a break above 1400.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.36 1/2 HI=2.38 3/4 LO=2.36 CL=2.38 1/4

I'll play a break above 2.38 with a buy and a break below 2.37 1/2 gets sold.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.37 HI=3.43 LO=3.36 1/2 CL=3.42 1/2

Buy a break above 3.41 3/4 after a bit of a pullback from today's close; sell a break below 3.41

Erich's Trades for Thursday August 11, 2005

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Erich's Update for Thursday, August 11, 2005
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Subscribers got these on Wednesday evening so they could plan their trading strategy for the next day. If you'd like these hot fresh and BEFORE the market opens, please go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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Got an RSI and trendline bounce today which looks good for tomorrow. I wish this market was showing a stronger trend but it's not - it's still quite choppy, and this will add to our risk.

*BUY September Australian Dollar at 7671
*Stop 7639
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $320 per contract
*Profit Target: 7849
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1780 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September British Pound BPU5
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Gap and rally, gap and rally, that's the BP's theme as of late. Missed another chance to buy this market, but I would consider it likely that rates head higher.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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Certainly not a stellar session for the Canadian Dollar today as rates came up short of our resistance above the market. I'll run the same trade again tomorrow, but I'm a little concerned about it turning out. Notice I bumped up the risk level again.

*BUY September Canadian Dollar at 8287
*Stop 8263
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 8367
*Approximate Profit Potential: $800 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*SELL September Canadian Dollar at 8209
*Stop 8233
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 8109
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1000 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September EuroFX ECU5
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Yuck! Another aimless day in the Euro, although it did range enough to whipsaw us out of our position. A very expensive day to say the least.

Standing aside for tomorrow.
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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Big reversal in the Yen today. In hindsight I should have seen the higher support level from the day before, which would tip us off to higher rates.

Nothing here tomorrow.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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The Peso is flirting with the 94.000 resistance again. While the trend isn't as strong as it was before we could still look at buying a breakout above here.

NOTE: it will be much safer to trade the day after the breakout, but if you wanted in early:

*BUY September Mexican Peso at 94.075
*Stop 93.575
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 97.750
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1837 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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You know what really burns me about today's whipsaw? Besides the obvious loss I mean...it's because this trade is looking like a good buy, yet the market's aimless wanderings continues to catch us and whip us about.

Nothing here tomorrow. I'm too ticked off.
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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Well at least we managed to avoid a whipping in the US Dollar as well, but it was close! We're currently short the Dollar right now, so you might want to bring your exit stops in a bit. The *best* placement is still above today's high, but if you wanted to lessen the risk a bit use the 8760 area to cover the trade.
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2: ENERGIES
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September Unleaded Gas HUU5
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A good day trading day in Gas, but not one we were able to take advantage of in position trades. I suspect we will see a reaction tomorrow as we get near the "other" trendline after which we'll look at another buy.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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While the daily chart shows the market rallying strongly the intraday chart shows a bit of a rollercoaster. While we certainly had the right idea about this trade the market rallied briefly from the opening bell, only to decline and stop us out of the trade. We'll be on the lookout for another buy...but not tomorrow.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude was a little more cooperative as prices didn't take us out of this trade. We're currently long crude and there is some room to adjust the stops if you choose. You can either bring them to breakeven or just below the 6520 intraday support area.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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Moderate pullback in the ED today. The lower close might see rates continue lower again tomorrow, but I'm not too concerned about missing the move just yet. Ideally we will see a test of higher resistance first, maybe even 9560.
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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Yuck! What a day. Someone beat up this market with an ugly stick. Not touching this with a ten foot trading pole tomorrow.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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Not a good day in the NAS either as we ended up buying the high only to get stopped out a few hours later...I hate it when that happens!

Standing aside tomorrow.
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September mini-S&P esU5
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The emini cold cocked us today as the index briefly broke resistance before falling off again. In spite of today's stupid range, I still like the market long. Standing aside tomorrow.
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4: GRAINS
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September Corn CU5
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Corn never gave us a chance to lower the stops as prices took a bounce off of yesterday's support. A perfect example of the market "fudging" the support area just enough to get us into a bad trade - it happens. Nothing here tomorrow.
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September Oats OU5
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Another small day in the oat world. Prices are just bouncing around without any real trend. Think I'll continue to watch.
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September Rice RRU5
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We're still long rice, but just barely. I have to admit that things don't look so promising for tomorrow as RSI is hooking lower and might try to test the trendline. If you didn't bring stops in yesterday then it's probably a good idea to do so today - just under the low.
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September Soybean Meal SMU5
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I want to sell the bean complex in the worst way, but it's very difficult to do with all the support to the downside. Much of the support is near the 50% retracement which just serves to beef it up somemore. Standing aside for now.
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December Soybean Oil BOz5
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Ditto for Bean oil. The bears are picking up steam, but where do we get in?
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September Soybean SU5
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And with the big Bean complex, the bears are looking like they're going to try and take the market, but with all the support nearby entry is very difficult to determine.
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat was a little more cooperative than corn as we got out of this position without a loss. I still like the short side, now we just need to wait for another selling opportunity.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Feeders are right on the price trendline today and today's close doesn't give us ANY clue what to expect tomorrow. If we see a moderately higher/lower session I'll look to buy or sell accordingly.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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While the daily chart looks like we got whipped in actual fact we are short Cattle as the high came before the low. I'm not thrilled with the higher close however as it doesn't allow us any room to adjust stops. First profit target is support at 7855.
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February Pork Bellies PBG6
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Big move to the downside in bellies today, but this market isn't trending very well right now. I'll wait and see if get a reaction to today's support, but I don't see anything I want to put money on right now.
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Not quite to the 5770 support we're watching, but we're getting there. We might see another buying opportunity off the RSI test point.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
----------
Copper showed us some support today as prices traded higher. There is a bit of resistance on today's high which we could buy the market from, otherwise I'll wait for another test of the contract highs before getting in.
----------
August Gold GCQ5
----------
Hmmm...Gold is looking a little more bullish today, and I am tempted to buy the market, but given the high RSI I think I'll hold off for a bit.
----------
September Silver SIU5
----------
Silver followed gold higher today, but silver doesn't seem nearly as strong as gold does at the moment. I'll keep an eye on this tomorrow.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
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September Cocoa CCU5
----------
Small day in cocoa as prices are slowing as we get closer to the 1385 support. If you haven't brought in the exit stops, then this is probably a good time to do so. Bring them at least to yesterday's high and above today's high if you wanted tighter management.

First profit target is support at 1385.
----------
September Coffee KCU5
----------
Coffee did bounce higher today, but I'm not sure this is anything I want to get too excited about at the moment. Let's see what happens at the 108.50 - 109 area.
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Nice day in cotton as prices made a strong move to the downside. We've got about $500 in profit as of the close so it's probably a good idea to bring your stops in a bit.

*Ideal* placement is above today's high, but you could also use the other side of intraday resistance at 5070 to cover the trade. First profit target is support at 4947.
----------
September OJ OJU5
----------
OJ reacted to support as we thought it would. I'd like to sell this market again, but am trying to figure out the best place to get in. RSI is hooking a bit, so maybe we'll see another trendline test before getting on board.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
Sugar stalled today which is actually kind of positive for the bulls. I still like this market long, but now we have to find the appropriate place to re-enter.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]

Tom's Trades Update for Wednesday, August 10, 2005

========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, August 10, 2005
========================================================
========================================================
1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDU5 O=4-00 HI=4-10 LO=3-24 CL=4-08

As expected we got another .25 basis point advance in the discount rate. The notes of the meeting released later in the day are what moved the market. The announcement of the increase itself was absorbed by the market almost withiut a ripple. The FED stated that things are pretty much staus quo with more rate increases likely in subsequent meetings.

Many had expected or hoped we might be winding down on the increases. That does not appear to be the case. The major disconnect between short term rates (which is what the discount rate is) and longer term rates continues and in fact widens to some degree.

I bought 114-03 early on and was stopped at B/E. I bought -03 again a bit later and rode it up to -07 exiting at -05 for 2 ticks. Big whoop. I folded the tent at that point ... no sense tugging on Superman's cape.

The late runup tells me we may see some more strength tomorrow. I doubt we'll be courageous enough to push this beyond 115-00. But the answer is we don't know that to be fact. We'll continue playing our numbers and picking likely spots to be flat in the face of volatile circumstances and clip 'em for our daily take.

Tomorrow we'll be ready teddy at 114-16 or 114-00 and go from there. I think it will take the strength of the -00 and -16 to control price flow tomorrow so I will be reluctant to do anything at the quarters, -08 and -24. That is not to say I won't play them at all, only that I will want to see a non ambiguous setup to jump either one.

There is an auction of 5 year notes tomorrow. If that is not enthusiastically covered we could see some weakness seep into things. The auction deadline is 12 noon Central. Be wary around that time.
========================================================
2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDU5 O=.990 HI=.005 LO=.990 CL=.000

Status quo for now. I moved the stop today to 96.010. I would not sell in here. You're either in all ready or stay flat for a bit.
========================================================
3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDU5 O=43 HI=58 LO=29 CL=47

I bought 8237. It was hopping all over, I was very uncomfortable and feeling definitely out of touch of the markets pulse. I got spooked a bit and jumped out at 8246 picking up $90. I'll stay with the same number for tomorrow.
========================================================
4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
========================================================
SFU5 O=69 HI=72 LO=42 CL=64

Never saw our ambush point. Same 7930 for tomorrow plus I will buy a break above 7972.
========================================================
5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTM5 O=2.00 HI=5.10 LO=8.90 CL=2.90

As the window opened we sold the failure just below 665.00 at 664.50 and exited at 663.10 for $140. We clawed back to 665 so I sold again, this time at 664.60. We got a candle that freaked me out a tad so I'm out at B/E. Next we sold 664.30 and exited at 661.60 for $270. Right back up to 665 again ... hey, this is fun, fun , fun ... we sold 664.40 and when we broke below 661 I put in a 660.10 limit. It was hit. We are out with $430. Nice. I then bought 660.30 and bailed at 662.60 capping off the day with another $230. All done.

The full array of TT numbers for tomorrow plus we've added 668 to the mix.
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=9.40 H=0.00 L=8.40 CL=9.80

I sold 438.60 on almost a picture perfect setup of the $10 Gold channel. Just one problem ... it didn't work worth a tinker's you know what. The darn thing turned on me faster than lifting off the gas in the middle of a corner in an early 911. Whoa! It went back to 439.30 and dropped again but ran out of steam at 438.50. It wouldn't break 438 letting me get to B/E. I bailed at 439.20 by cancel/replacing my stop from 439.70 to market. A $60 loss. The end.

$10 channel and 443 again tomorrow.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.20 HI=.45 LO=.00 CL=.14

We had a little fun here today. I bought 51.10 on the reopen. Reversed by selling 2 at 51.40 banking 30 points and getting short. I reversed again exiting the short at 51.05 for another 35 and getting long. This one was stopped at 51.03 for a small 2 point loss. I packed it in at that point netting 63 ticks for $315.

All the same numbers from TT and this weeks updates again tomorrow
========================================================
8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COU5 O=25 HI=25 LO=98 CL=02

Nothing today. I'll bring back the numbers from 2 editions of TT back. 1440, 1400 and 1420. Do not sell the break below 1400 though.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.35 HI=2.39 1/2 LO=2.35 CL=2.35 3/4

Nothing today. I'll roll with 2.30 and 2.38 tomorrow. Buy 'em or sell 'em ... the market will tell us which. Penny and quarter stops and rolls to B/E. A scalper we be.
========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.38 1/2 HI=3.40 LO=3.36 1/2 CL=3.37 1/2

Big gap ... well, relatively speaking. Didn't get high enough; didn't get low enough.

TT numbers from the weekend for tomorrow.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday, August 10, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Wednesday, August 10, 2005
==================================================
"The secret of success is constancy of purpose." - Benjamin Franklin
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
September Australian Dollar ADU5
----------
We got the lower rates we were looking for in the Aussie but the opening gap and the higher close don't make this market look all that encouraging for tomorrow.
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September British Pound BPU5
----------
Another small day in the BP today as the market recovered a bit of yesterday's gap. I'd love to see a bit of a retracement as that would give us an excellent buying opportunity.

I could place a buy above yesterday's high, but I think I'll wait for confirmation before getting on board. I just hope the market doesn't run away!
----------
September Canadian Dollar CDU5
----------
A bit of a wishy-washy day in the Canadian Dollar today with the market trading firmly between support and resistance. We can bracket this range and trade the breakout side, but I have to admit I'm a little concerned about the upside resistance at 8350 causing a problem.

*BUY September Canadian Dollar at 8287
*Stop 8263
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 8367
*Approximate Profit Potential: $800 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL September Canadian Dollar at 8209
*Stop 8233
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 8109
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1000 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September EuroFX ECU5
----------
Same tight range as what we were faced with yesterday in the Euro means we deal with the market as before and bracket the support and resistance and trade the breakout side.

*BUY September EuroFX at 124.33
*Stop 123.83
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $625 per contract
*Profit Target: 126.93
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3250 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL September EuroFX at 123.09
*Stop 123.63
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $675 per contract
*Profit Target: 121.07
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2525 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
----------
Nothing was moving today as the Yen found a little support from yesterday's action. Still sticking with the same plan for tomorrow.

*SELL September Japanese Yen at 8939
*Stop 8957
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 8847
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September Mexican Peso MPU5
----------
The Peso seems to have found some support as the market traded slightly higher today (on the close). RSI is also hooking which would suggest that rates are likely to increase - at least for the short term.

*BUY September Mexican Peso at 94.075
*Stop 93.575
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 97.750
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1837 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September Swiss Franc SFU5
----------
Looks like I didn't give the Franc quite enough room on the downside as the market dipped low enough to find our sell order before reversing and whipping us out of the trade. From the intraday chart I almost thought we were going to ride it out, but the bulls pushed the market higher by closing.

While I normally don't follow up trade a market I've taken a loss in the day before, I will run both trades for the Franc again tomorrow, but give the short side a little more room still.

*BUY September Swiss Franc at 7983
*Stop 7963
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 8097
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1425 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL September Swiss Franc at 7937
*Stop 7957
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 7877
*Approximate Profit Potential: $750 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
----------
It should be not surprise that we're considering bracketing the US Dollar as well since we have this market also trapped between support and resistance.

*BUY September US Dollar Index at 8837
*Stop 8809
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $280 per contract
*Profit Target: 8923
*Approximate Profit Potential: $860 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*SELL September US Dollar Index at 8747
*Stop 8787
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $400 per contract
*Profit Target: 8627
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1200 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
September Unleaded Gas HUU5
----------
Gas reacted to the weekly resistance at 186 today as prices dropped off slightly. The bull trend is still intact however, and I'm trying to figure out another buy scenario, but the risk amount, relative to the "projected" profit target won't give me a doable trade.

If we see prices dip a little lower we should be able to put something together.
----------
October Heating Oil HOV5
----------
Heating Oil came up just short of our first profit target before backing off today. If you had your stops below the close or the 177.70 area you would have been stopped out in today's range with a handsome profit!

We should plan another trade above today's high, but I would welcome a bit of a pullback to refresh the market. Notice we've switched to the October contract as September nears expiry.

*BUY October Heating Oil at 184.55
*Stop 183.20
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $567 per contract
*Profit Target: 194.90
*Approximate Profit Potential: $4347 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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October Crude Oil CLV5
----------
Ditto for Crude as we saw a similar "flinching" session today. Look to buy a breakout above today's high.

*BUY October Crude at 6545
*Stop 6495
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $500 per contract
*Profit Target: 6790
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2450 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
----------
The ED tagged us today as rates reacted to nearby support. I was hoping we would see the market touch the support line before rallying, but that didn't happen.

I also would like to see at least one more iffy day before we put together our next sell order. We've made a rounded top formation here, so we could be due for a bigger bounce.
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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While we have similar setups in all three mini's the Dow seems to be the weakest to me at the moment. I'll let this one alone and see if we get another rally.
----------
September mini-NAS NQU5
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The NAS showed us support today and rallied higher allowing us to buy above today's high. Notice where support came? Yep, right on the 1598-ish line which we will use to cover the trade if we get long.

*BUY September mini-NAS at 1615.5
*Stop 1597
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $370 per contract
*Profit Target: 1697
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1630 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September mini-S&P esU5
----------
The S&P took a nice bounce off the trendline today inviting us to buy the market long tomorrow. I'll give it a little extra room just to try and stay on the right side of the market.

*BUY September mini S&P at 1241.75
*Stop 1235.25
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $325 per contract
*Profit Target: 1286.75
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2250 per contract
*RRR: 6 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
September Corn CU5
----------
Corn fell low enough to find our sell order today as prices just dipped through the 217 - 218 line. Can't move the stops just yet, but hopefully we'll have a chance to get the trade to breakeven tomorrow.
----------
September Oats OU5
----------
Small day for oats today as the market traded within yesterday's range. Think I'll pull the order for tomorrow and see what gives.
----------
September Rice RRU5
----------
Got filled on our rice buy today as prices made a late day rally to find the order. You could bring stops under today's open if you wanted to take some risk out of the trade, otherwise leave stops for one more day.
----------
September Soybean Meal SMU5
----------
Sure...now you head lower. Too late though as we're just watching right now...and tomorrow as well.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOz5
----------
I'm wanting to sell bean oil, unfortunately we've got a rather nasty band of support at 2300 just below the market. I'm not sure if we'll get a bounce here or not, but I have to stand aside for now.
----------
September Soybean SU5
----------
Gap-o-rama in the bean market today. I'd like to look at shorting beans as well, but we've got a similar problem like that in bean oil. The bears are definitely looking stronger though.
----------
September Wheat WU5
----------
Wheat continued lower today allowing us to bring stops at least to breakeven, or above today's high if you prefer.

First profit target is support at 310 1/4.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
October Feeder Cattle FCV5
----------
Feeders had another bearish session but not nearly as strong as yesterdays. I don't see anything here I would put money on, so I'm standing aside for the moment.
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
Cattle didn't find our sell order but the parameters still look good; however each day that the market does not go lower makes it that much more likely it will head higher instead - and this also increases the riskiness of our trade.

*SELL October Live Cattle at 8042
*Stop 8092
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 7855
*Approximate Profit Potential: $750 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
February Pork Bellies PBG6
----------
Bellies are on their way to 8180. Let's wait and see what happens when they get here.
----------
October Lean Hogs LHV5
----------
Hogs fell off a bit today. I think we could see the market decline a little further until we see support at 5770.
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
September Copper HGU5
----------
Big drop in copper as prices fell to support in the 158 area. This is important support as it is also near the trendline. If it holds we'll buy again.
----------
August Gold GCQ5
----------
Gold continued to fall today. Look for prices to test support at 430 before we get a possible reversal and higher prices again. Standing aside for tomorrow.
----------
September Silver SIU5
----------
Silver "felt" the 695 support line today as prices traded a little higher. I almost considered selling below today's low, but with silver I'll give it another day to sort itself out.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
September Cocoa CCU5
----------
Good day for the cocoa bears as the market made a strong move to the downside. You could bring stops just above today's close if you wanted to "squeeze" the market, otherwise consider using intraday resistance at 1415 and 1420.

First profit target is support at 1385.
----------
September Coffee KCU5
----------
If you brought your exit stops in yesterday you would have been stopped out on the open. If you left them back a bit then you're still short this market. Today's indecisive day doesn't look too welcoming for tomorrow, so you'll want your stops at breakeven for Wednesday.
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Cotton continued slightly lower today. You should bring your stops above today's high to take some of the risk out of the trade (if you haven't done so already).

First profit target is support at 4947.
----------
September OJ OJU5
----------
Gee...maybe I've had OJ wrong all these years! ;-)

The market gave me a hardy "welcome back" today as prices found our first profit target quite easily. If you didn't exit on target you should at least bring stops in above 9300 for tomorrow as this is a beefy looking support line and a reaction could be likely.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
Typical Sugar day as prices broke support and stopped us out of our trade. We'll have another chance at this market but for the time being we're watching.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]