Thursday, August 04, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday, August 3, 2005

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Erich's Update for Wednesday, August 3, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades!
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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The Swiss Franc gapped our entry this morning and in hindsight that was a good thing as the market quickly stalled and even fell off a bit before the end of the day.

I'm not too comfortable with what I'm seeing right now so I think I'll pull the trade for tomorrow and look elsewhere.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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We managed to stay out of reach of the Peso today as the market had a slightly more bearish session. I still like this market long, and while we could see rates fall off tomorrow, I'll stick with the trend side.

The support from the last few days allows us to tighten this trade so we have even less money at risk.

*BUY September Mexican Peso at 9377
*Stop 9337
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 9775
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1987 per contract
*RRR: 9 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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I'm not sure if today's session is an early reaction to the 8333 resistance or a reaction to yesterday's gap. Either way the market is in an uptrend so we should be looking at buying, but RSI and today's session suggest another lower day is coming tomorrow.

If we get confirmation of resistance I might get more serious about selling, but we'll see.
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2: ENERGIES
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September Heating Oil HOU5 ----------

We got stopped out of Heating Oil near breakeven today ($168 loss) as prices made a similar range to yesterday but didn't trade higher. The fact that prices are stalling has me a little concerned, especially as we approach the 62% retracement of the last downtrend.

While we are technically still in an uptrend, and while I don't normally do this, I might consider a short trade if the market reverses tomorrow and trades lower.

RSI is at a test point, and while today's higher closing price suggests higher prices tomorrow, we are nearing an important resistance level (as is crude) so a reversal is not out of the question. We're also approaching a seasonally weak time of the year for this commodity so it will be interesting to see if support gives way.

*SELL September Heating Oil at 168.70
*Stop 169.70
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $420 per contract
*Profit Target: 159.50
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3864 per contract
*RRR: 9:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Unleaded Gas HUU5
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Gas made another run at yesterday's high and the resistance at the contract high today, but the bulls came up a little short. I'm still liking this market long, but I have to admit that the very bearish seasonals are making me a little apprehensive about buying.

If we see a breakout above resistance tomorrow then I'll buy the day after the breakout, but if we see a more bearish day I'll get more serious about selling.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6 ----------

Same report for the Eurodollar today as the market tested support at the 9555 area. If you didn't exit yesterday you certainly had another chance to do so today. If you're trailing a stop, then just above 95.60 is still a good spot to be.

If you did exit on target we should have another chance at selling this market in a few days time.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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Not much changed in the mini-NAS today either as the market charged our entry, but came up just a tick short. I might adjust the entry figures a bit to reflect today's session. I was still looking for a testing of support but now I'm wondering if we're going to get it.

*BUY September mini-NAS at 1640.5
*Stop 1622.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $360 per contract
*Profit Target: 1697
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1130 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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4: GRAINS
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September Corn CU5
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What did I tell you about the 230 support level? Did you see what prices did today when the market tested the support? Yep, the flinched and moved a little higher.

I'm not impressed with today's session at all and will leave exit stops at/near breakeven or just above the 235 resistance. If we break through here that's our cue to pack up and go.
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat continued to be choppy today as the market traded right between our support and resistance figures from yesterday. No doubt the market is confused about which direction it should go, so it's not going anywhere!

I'll run the same trade tomorrow as the idea is sound and the numbers seem good. I will adjust the buy order a bit to reflect today's range in order to avoid getting caught in a fading market.

*BUY September Wheat at 337 1/4 *Stop 333 3/4 *Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract *Profit Target: 349 1/4 *Approximate Profit Potential: $600 per contract *RRR: 3:1 *Degree of Risk: Moderate

OR

*SELL September Wheat at 326 3/4
*Stop 330 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 310 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $825 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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5: MEATS
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Turns out the Hog trade would have worked out VERY nicely as the market traded higher today again. Still nothing we can take advantage of right now though.
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August Live Cattle LCQ5
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Looks like someone in the Cattle pits heard us talking and might send prices lower to test support. Where the market is trading right now there's nothing we can do as we're too close to resistance, but a pullback could give us another go at this market.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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We got filled long on a weak breakout in copper today, not exactly the type of fill I was looking for! Unfortunately we can't do anything with our stops right now, so we'll have to leave them where they are. The market trend is still up and still strong, so hopefully we'll see prices recover tomorrow.

Hopefully.
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7: SOFTS
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar made us nice move to the upside today allowing us to bring stops at/near breakeven, or just under the 990 support for tomorrow.

Long term profit target is resistance at 10.89.
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September OJ OJU5
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Darn! We had the right idea about OJ but the market gapped our entry voiding the trade. We'll keep an eye on this one though and look for another chance to sell.
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September Coffee KCU5
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If Emeril was a coffee trader today would definitely have been a BAM! type of day as prices took off right from support as soon as the bell sounded.

The break through resistance easily found our buy order and the strong session allows us to bring stops at/near breakeven for tomorrow, or just below 104.00.

First profit target is resistance at 111.90.
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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, August 3, 2005
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Hi Gang,

Second epi done. We're going to take a stab at getting this out. I'm dictating this to my granddaughter, Tassha. She's pretty bright and types about 180 words per minute on the keyboard so you might see a noticeable improvement in quality, spelling and diminished typos. Not a bad day all things considered. Enjoy and good hunting tomorrow.
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=4-24 HI=5-03 LO=4-18 CL=4-21

I began the day by missing out on the initial run up to 115-03. I sold 114-29 and took a nice ride down to -18 before getting stopped at -21 for 8 ticks. I followed that up with a buy at -21 which I exited at -26 for another 5. That gave us a total of 13 ticks for the day, $406.

The session close at 114-21 leaves us looking for 114-16 or 115-00 to provide the initial action tomorrow. I will play -08 and -24 if he picture is clear and strong.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.015 HI=.020 LO=.010 CL=.020

An exact carbon copy of yesterday. I watched again and took no action. If we don't break back above .020 tomorrow, I'll take it short from there with a .035 stop.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=72 HI=99 LO=23 CL=34

I sold 8278, rolled to B/E on the break of 70 and was stopped at 8280 for a small loss. Sold 78 again and was stopped at 87 losing $90. I'm now down $110. I then sold 73 and exited at 35 on a 31 stop. Ended the day up net $270.

With the RTH session closing at 8234 today we'll keep the same numbers in play ... 8280, 8200 and 8140.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=82 HI=04 LO=61 CL=61

Nothing for us today. I'll keep 7850 on the radar as well as adding 7900 as a point to sell on a retest there that fails or buy on a break above.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 Oh=.70 HI=0.10 LO=3.60 CL=8.80

As the window opened to us we were right at 685. I bought 685.30 and bailed at 687.30 for $200. I then bought 687.10 and bailed at 688.10 for $100. Next up we sold 686.80 and exited at 685.50 on the failure to carry lower for $130. The failure was so significant there at 685.10 that I though of reversing but didn't. I was just a little out of breath.

Next up, I bought 687.10 and got stopped at B/E. I took about an hour break as my focus was not there. I came back to buy 687.10 once again and bailed at 689.50 picking up $240. I was done and off to the hospital.

All the same numbers tomorrow. No new additions.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=7.80 HI=8.80 LO=6.60 CL=7.70

We poked a bit higher today. I thought it was enough and sold 438.50. We rolled it to B/E at 437.00. When we got the failure at 436.80 for the fourth 5 minute candle I brought the stop to 437.10. They wasted no time in getting us. Out with $140.

$10 channel and 434 again tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.50 HI=.30 LO=.10 CL=.51

A large gap down at the open took us right to 51.50, a number we'd pegged in the weekend edition. I bought 51.55 on the reopen. I bailed at 53.10 on the end of the run theory which once again proved its value for us. We ended the day at 52.51. We bagged 155 ticks, $775.

All the same numbers from TT and this weeks updates again tomorrow.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=80 HI=00 LO=75 CL=98

We played all around our numbers today but not in a sequence that produced any trades. We'll play the same numbers for tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.46 1/2 HI=2.47 1/2 LO=2.42 1/4 CL=2.45 1/2

We sold 2.46 and exited at 2.43 1/4 for 137. Sold .46 again, out at 2.44 1/4 for $87. I was done.

Same numbers for tomorrow ... 2.46 1/2
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.47 HI=3.50 LO=3.45 CL=3.47 1/2

Nothing today. I'll stick with the same weekend TT numbers again tomorrow.

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