Saturday, July 30, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday, July 29, 2005

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Erich's Update for Friday, July 29, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for TOM'S TRADES
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1: SEPTEMBER CORN
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CU5 O=0 HI=1 1/2 LO=9 1/4 CL=1

Corn traded above the 239 resistance today, which is significant since this is a major resistance area. Prices ran higher on an opening gap, so it's hard to say whether the breakout is real or not.

With weather still influencing the market so much, I can't see a major move before the weekend, so I think I'll just stand aside for tomorrow.
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=77 HI=20 LO=40 CL=76

Not a big surprise that cotton tried to trade higher today, after yesterday's major "fade" session. What is interesting is the indecisive day we had where the market finished where it began.

I still like the short side, especially below the 5100 support from yesterday. It's a bit of a stretch, and we likely won't get filled, but I'll run the same trade again tomorrow.

*SELL December Cotton at 5089
*Stop 5126
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $185 per contract
*Profit Target: 4942
*Approximate Profit Potential: $735 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=95 HI=10 LO=76 CL=82

Bean oil continues to consolidate. We're getting quite an interesting pennant formation developing as prices continue to zig-zag. If it wasn't Friday tomorrow I would sell below today's low; however thing are likely to be a little iffy going into the weekend, so I think I'll pass.

Look for a bounce off 2525 as a sign we're getting short next week.

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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=00 HI=75 LO=92 CL=57

Nearly the same session in cattle today as yesterday with the exception that resistance yielded a bit. I don't think buying cattle is quite the plan just yet and would look for ressitance in the 8000 to possibly hold prices back. If the resistance holds we'll get serious about selling again next week.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=70 HI=72 LO=44 CL=53

Nuts. Go figure that cocoa would give us the "about face" move today, stopping us out of a perfectly good trade at breakeven. It might be for the best however as it's never much fun holding a cocoa contract over the weekend.
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6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
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WU5 O=33 HI=36 1/2 LO=32 1/2 CL=33

Wheat traded higher on a gap today. Big surprise right? After all, yesterday prices went lower so today they must go higher! Geesch all this back and forth motion is giving me nausea. Think I'll play elsewhere tomorrow.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=10 HI=45 LO=89 CL=25

Okay, now this is getting interesting. Finally we have a market that seems to be behaving "normally" again... at least for the time being.

Today's bounce off the strong support in the 8060 area was to be expected, and even welcomed, as it reinforces this resistance area. There is strong resistance above the market as well at 8160, but given the lateness of the week and the craziness of the markets, I think I'll wait for confirmation before selling again, but a sell is definitely pending.

Unless things change of course. ;-)
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8: SEPTEMBER COPPER
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HGU5 O=2.60 HI=5.40 LO=1.60 CL=4.90

Copper made a nice rally to the upside today. Unfortunately if you brought stops in any closer than breakeven you probably got taken out of the trade with a small profit. Don't panic if you did as there's likely another entry on the horizon.

If you are still long then it's decision time again. Believe it or not, the best place for the stops is still at breakeven; however that is just if you're planning to try and ride the trend as far as possible. Otherwise there's over $650 on the table after today and no one can fault you for trying to protect some (or all) of that.
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9: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM6 O=.605 HI=.65 LO=.595 CL=.64

Oh-oh, looks like our run might be coming to an end as rates seemed to have found support off the 9560 area. Bring exit stops in above today's high. If we see the market rally through here (which I think it will) then it's time to pick up our things and go home.

And just in time for the weekend!
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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RECOMMENDED BROKER
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If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, July 29, 2005 ========================================================
My apologies for missing yesterday. I left shortly after completing the webinar last night and spent 4 hours in the ER. Everything is fine, just a little escalation of the back thingy. I had my MRI today ... interesting experience, never had one before ... 30 minute anxiety attack is the best description. Hopefully it tells the story and we'll find a resolution of the permanent type. Thank you all for your patience while I deal with this.
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=5-18 HI=6-14 LO=5-14 CL=6-11

I bought 115-19 after the first half hour which I exited at 116-00. We followed that one up with a buy at 116-03 which was stopped out at 116-11. Total for the day 21 points, $656.

The close at -11 sets our sites on 116-00 and 116-16. We'll go either way dependant on the whispers of the market.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.035 HI=.040 L=.030 CL=.040

I remain short from .060 with the stop now at .045. We're getting a very significant support line at .040. We'll be watching for an opportunity to get out near or at tomorrow's low and then refocus on selling at .060 or buying the break above there. If we rise above .045 I'll consider a sell on the break below .040.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=10 HI=45 LO=90 CL=25

We did nothing today. We climbed back far enough to put 8140 and 8160 in play again. For tomorrow I will sell a break below 8140 or buy a break above 8160.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=71 HI=20 LO=55 CL=07

On Wednesday we bought 7705 and exited at 7750 for $562. Today, we bought 7762 and exited at 7810 for 48 ticks, $600. For tomorrow I'll play 7750 as per TT weekend. I will also buy the break above 7820 with a stop at 7811 or sell a break below 7800. 7850 is also a play i'd make if we head straight up. I'll buy the break above or sell the failure test.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=7.50 HI=5.00 LO=5.40 CL=4.60

I began the day selling 679.70 and exited at 675.60 for $410. I then bought 676.00 and exited at 679.60 for $360. We then bought 680.30 and exited at 684.00 for $370. Done for the day.

The full array of numbers from TT for tomorrow. We are now in unplayable territory for us. We need to build structure at this level or wait for a return for prices below 680.
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6: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=5.10 HI=8.60 LO=5.10 CL=7.40

We'll be looking for an opportunity off the $10 channel tomorrow as we closed near the top of the 420/430 channel at 427 and change.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.77 HI=.20 LO=.40 CL=.76

I sold one at 51.85 and bailed at 51.50 for 35 ticks, $175. I bought at 51.55 and bailed at 51.70. I had no interest in holding overnight.

51.50 and 52.00 are the numbers for tomorrow.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=15 HI=24 LO=91 CL=07

We picked up a couple of hundred Wednesday on a buy on the break above 1440. We didn't get a shot today. 1400, 1420 and 1440 are the numbers again for tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.53 HI=2.54 1/2 LO=2.52 CL=2.52 1/2

Wednesday we bought 2.46 3/4 and got stopped out at B/E. I bought it once more and held it thru 'til Thursday with a stop working at 2.46 3/4 and a limit order at 2.50 just in case. We got hit in the night session banking 3 1/4, $162. On Thursday we bought 2.50 1/2 and I'm once again holding it. The stop is B/E and I have a limit working at 2.55 3/4 protecting our target. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.48 HI=3.50 1/2 LO=3.46 1/2 CL=3.47

I missed it on Wed ... In hindsight I should have bought 3.42. Thursday's gap open took us above our next higher target at 3.45. We missed it all. We'll stay on 3.45 tomorrow looking either to sell a break below or buy a failed retest there. I'll also buy the break above 3.50 or sell a failure to press higher from there.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Thursday, July 28, 2005

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Erich's Update for Thursday, July 28, 2005 ==================================================
Hot off the commodity presses to you!

"Don't be fooled by the calendar. There are only as many days in the year as you make use of." - Charles Richards
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1: SEPTEMBER CORN
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CU5 O=5 1/2 HI=7 LO=3 1/2 CL=6 1/2

The corn see-saw continued today as prices made nearly the same range as yesterday. I'd really like to put a corn trade together again, but there is no direction to the market at all. Technically we're in a downtrend so I'd prefer to sell, but it's really slim pickin's.
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=05 HI=080 LO=95 CL=46

Got a lower session today, but it was a strange one as the market gapped lower only to rally higher for the rest of the day. RSI did hook off the trendline which is encouraging, and the higher close does allow us a little safety in selling tomorrow.

*SELL December Cotton at 5089
*Stop 5126
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $185 per contract
*Profit Target: 4942
*Approximate Profit Potential: $735 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=78 HI=90 LO=60 CL=65

Another trendless day in bean oil as prices continue to battle support. The weekly chart shows the market holding the trendline pretty well, so I would probably wait for a test of the 2415 area before trying to sell.

Conversely a break above yesterday's high could get me thinking "buy" again.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=00 HI=50 LO=90 CL=35

See, now aren't you glad you took your loss early? It's never fun losing money, but the next best thing to a winning trade is getting out of a bad trade early. Okay, that might be stretching it a bit, but if we were still short cattle we would have ended up losing even more today.

Like so many markets right now cattle is just wandering and as such is extremely difficult to trade. We've been stopped out of two sells so it looks likely that we could get a rally - at least for the short term.

We'll wait and see.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=42 HI=63 LO=42 CL=58

Got a nice fill on our cocoa trade today as prices finally broke resistance. Bring stops to breakeven for tomorrow's session in case we see prices do a quick "about face".

First stop is the resistance at 1500, but we might try to run this one a little higher, market permitting.
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6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
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WU5 O=29 HI=31 LO=28 CL=30 1/2

Small day for wheat as prices traded within yesterday's ranges. Normally we can count on wheat to set the pace for the other markets, but not this week. This market is as aimless as the rest.

Oh well, better break out the Yahtzee game...this might take a while.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=84 HI=28 LO=57 CL=98

The CD certainly didn't do what I was hoping for today, namely a bounce off of yesterday's support, instead the market made a hard move to the downside, right to the 8050 support area.

The CD has moved quite a bit to the downside the last couple of days and as such I think a reaction is due which should allow us to re-enter in a few days.
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8: SEPTEMBER COPPER
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HGU5 O=0.60 HI=3.50 LO=0.10 CL=2.70

Seems like all our finger crossing and breath holding paid off today as copper took off from the 160.10 support area. We can safely bring stops to break even now, or if you prefer the 162 resistance from the other day.

This is one of the few markets that appears to be trending well. First profit target is resistance at 168.50.
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9: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM6 O=.675 HI=.675 LO=.605 CL=.61

The Eurodollar did not disappoint today as rates fell off in a big way. There were some secondary market reports released which probably spurred rates lower but what ever the reason we are nearly to our first profit target at 95.55.

Bring exit stops above today's resistance, or if you prefer something a little tighter, use the intraday resistance at 9564.

This is another market that appears to be trending pretty well. Maybe we will be able to ride it lower still after battling 9555.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]