Tuesday, July 26, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Update for Friday, July 22, 2005

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Erich's Update for Friday, July 22, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for TOM'S TRADES.

Hot off the commodity presses to you!
Erich Senft, CTA.
http://www.supportandresistance.com

"The best way for a person to have happy thoughts is to count his blessings and not his cash." - Anonymous
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1: SEPTEMBER CORN
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CU5 O=7 HI=7 LO=2 3/4 CL=4

Corn prices continued to tank today as the market cleanly broke yesterday's support. More importantly, as far as we're concerned, prices also broke the 235 support area. If it wasn't Friday tomorrow I would look at selling short; however I think we'll see prices pause a bit going into the weekend.
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=32 HI=65 LO=40 CL=60

Cotton prices continued to honour support today bouncing slightly higher before the close. We've got a nice channel formation which we could buy or sell. It's very likely that we will see a bit of a rally over the next few days, as weekly support seems to be holding prices up, but I'll concentrate on selling for the time being.

*SELL December Cotton at 4927
*Stop 4976
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $245 per contract
*Profit Target: 4651
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1380 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O$50 HI$57 LO$15 CL$51

Bean Oil slipped slightly lower today, but not quite as aggressively as corn. Tell the truth I'm not sure what to do with this market and will probably hold off until we see a test of the 2390 - 2400 support range.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=20 HI=35 LO=75 CL=13

Sold Cattle today on a slight dip in prices. I was hoping for something a little more aggressive to the downside, but guess we'll have to settle for this.

Tomorrow's a big report day in the cattle market so either leave stops where they are or bring them in above today's high to save a couple of bucks. First target is support at 7607.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=30 HI=43 LO=01 CL=04

Got filled short in cocoa today, but like cattle it wasn't quite the session I was hoping for. Prices finished the day pretty much where they began, which isn't encouraging for tomorrow. Hopefully we'll see prices continue lower without challenging our stops, but it doesn't look too good right now.
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6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
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WU5 O=29 1/2 HI=30 1/2 LO=25 1/4 CL=27

Wheat prices followed corn lower today as prices also broke the trendline support. Look for wheat to stall out tomorrow as traders get ready for the weekend and another round of "guess the weather".
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=63 HI=68 LO=12 CL=28

Another one of those "bullish/bearish" days as the CD gapped higher on the open only to fade the rest of the session. A buy above the resistance at 8265 - 8270 is the plan du jour; however today's range doesn't fill me with a lot of confidence.

If rates do continue higher we'll get another chance to catch them at 8330, so I'll pass for tomorrow.
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8: SEPTEMBER SILVER
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SIU5 O=7.5 HI=1.5 LO=7.5 CL=3.5

Silver sprinted higher as we thought it might but started backing off as prices neared the resistance at 726. Look for prices to make another stab here tomorrow, and if they do it would probably be a good time to take profits if you're currently long.
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9: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM6 O=.71 HI=.735 LO=.64 CL=.65

Looks like the Eurodollar finally came to its senses and not a moment too soon! Rates fell off nicely today but not really enough to move our exit stops. You could "tweak" the stop above today's high if you had to otherwise I'd leave it alone for now.

First support target is 95.55.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, July 22, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-03 HI=6-05 LO=4-29 CL=5-05

Well, there's the break lower from the monster support. Sold -28 stopped at 31 for a 3 tick loss. Resold -28 and out at -25. Once we'd broken -24 I thought it prudent to be gone if we broke back above it. Got the 3 of 'em back. 3rd time's a charm they say. I sold -28 once more. This time we got something to work with ... out at -19 for 9 ticks. I then sold -14 and exited at 115-05 for another 9. We're now at plus 18 ticks. We sold -13 and I was stopped at -05 for 8 more making 26 total, $812.

Weclosed todayeat 115-05 making 115-00 or 115-16 the first focus for tomorrow. I'll play either both ways, buying or selling according to the price flow.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.045 HI=.055 LO=.035 CL=.040

Progress! We remain short from .060 with a .065 stop working. 96.040 is a strong line. It'll take some "juice" to gte through it. Once broken there isn't anything remotely resembling structure until 95.980, which isn't exactly a powerhouse its ownself. 96.00 is big and fat and round but structure challenged. Despite its anemia I look for it to apply the brakes at least for a breather. Roll tight there.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=63 HI=68 LO=12 CL=28

A big gap higher derailed our plan for today. Nothing done today. We'll play old friend 8200 tomorrow. See Weekend TT for the numbers for guidance. 8280 isn't the strongest line on the chart but I will also take a flyer there selling a retest that fails to press higher with a stop at 8283. Roll to B/E at 8276. The target is 8160.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=57 HI=40 LO=10 CL=16

We sold 7845. We went thru 7800 and I rolled to 7801. We missed getting stopped by a single tick. We touched 7785 and I rolled the stop to 7791 and got stopped at 99. Nice fill, guys. Out with $575. Done for the day. I had an alrm go off at 7845. I tried to get it sold at 45 again but that dog wouldn't hunt a lick.

7850 and 7750 are the ambush points.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=0.00 HI=3.80 LO=7.80 CL=8.40

We began the trading window with the market swinging wildly. It took awile but I finally got one sold at 672.80 and exited at 669.20 for $360. I then bought 673.20 and out at 677.90 for $470. Sold it next at 672.80 and exited at 71.30 for $150. Sold 672.70 and gone at 668.50 for $420. Done. Total for the day is $1250. Good day, I think it's fair to say.
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6: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=4.60 HI=6.00 LO=4.20 CL=5.70

No confirmation today, so no trade. $10 channel tomorrow. I'll trade 424 tomorrow selling the break back below or buying the break above.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.38 HI=.65 LO=.40 CL=.60

Remind anyone of Mr. Toad's Wild Ride? Wow, a 100 point swing lower, turn and back up 100 points. Tomorrow we'll buy the break above 50.60 once again but I will also sell a break below 50.50. Remember the counsel to jump out at the end of any major run.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=15 HI=24 LO=91 CL=07

I sold 1418 and out at 1398 for $200.
1420, 1440 and 1400 but a buy only at 1400.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.46 HI=2.47 LO=2.43 CL=2.44 3/4

Another gap lower as the funds continue to unwind long positions and volatile weather contine to wreak havoc on Corn prices. They never gave us a shot at our numbers today.

2.42 has to be a significant line in the sand. We'll play ther either way tomorrow.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.44 HI=3.44 1/2 LO=3.39 1/4 CL=3.42 1/2

They leapfrogged over us in the Whaet as well as it posted an opening gap lower. Let's play 3.41 1/2 tomorrow ... buy the failed retest and sell the break lower.