Friday, July 22, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Thursday, July 21, 2005

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Erich's Update for Thursday, July 21, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER CORN
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CU5 O=2 HI=4 1/4 LO=8 CL=1 1/2

Corn stalled out today, but not as neatly as beans or wheat did. I might expect a rally tomorrow off this support however it is a bit of a long shot. I'll consider buying above today's high, but I'll be quick to cover the trade if it reverses.

I'll reserve selling until we get below the 235 support.

*BUY September Corn at 245 1/4
*Stop 240 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 264 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $950 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=92 HI=45 LO=36 CL=89

All our hard work only picked us up $185 in profit as cotton stalled today. I might expect a bit of a reversal in light of the wishy-washy session, but I'll just be watching tomorrow.
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=48 HI=00 L=38 CL=97

Bean Oil didn't make as nice a bounce off the trendline as the bigger soybean contract did. In fact there's not a whole heck-of-a-lot of support here to justify any reaction, at least not on the daily. The weekly chart shows a little more support...but I'm not sure I want to buy just yet.

If we see a higher session tomorrow I might try to get long before the weekend, but right now I'm just going to watch.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=30 HI=85 LO=05 CL=42

Not a pretty day in cattle as prices continued to pullback. I'm going to tighten my entry parameters to look at selling below today's support. There's a cattle report due out Friday which is likely to affect where prices are heading next, but I'll continue to look to sell for the time being.

*SELL August Live Cattle at 7892
*Stop 7952
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 7607
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1140 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=30 HI=43 LO=01 CL=04

Big move to the downside in cocoa would have taken you out of any long positions you still had in this market. Did you notice the high? Yep, right on the 1445 resistance. This is obviously a very strong resistance area and while I would prefer to sell, I'll entertain a buy on a break above here.

*SELL September Cocoa at 1394
*Stop 1411
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $170 per contract
*Profit Target: 1331
*Approximate Profit Potential: $630 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

OR

*BUY September Cocoa at 1451
*Stop 1433
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 1507
*Approximate Profit Potential: $560 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
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WU5 O=34 1/2 HI=38 LO=31 CL=33 1/4

Wheat found support at 331, right where we were looking. This is also a trendline and RSI testpoint, so we should expect a reaction here tomorrow. I'll look to buy wheat long on a break of today's high and will reserve selling short until we get a trendline break.

*BUY September Wheat at 339 1/4
*Stop 335 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 356 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $850 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=36 HI=44 LO=77 CL=01

Yuck! What an ugly day in the CD today. Given today's bearish posture it looks like we might see a test of 8160 after all...but I'm not holding my breath. I'll keep an eye on this one, but we need to see it testing some serious support or resistance before we get involved.
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8: SEPTEMBER SILVER
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SIU5 O=8.5 HI=1 LO=7.5 CL=6.8

Silver did take a bullish breakout from the sideways channel that had formed over the last few days. I was just watching though as I'm still pretty choked with this market.

Expect prices to head higher...but I'll still be watching.
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9: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM6 O=.76 HI=.76 LO=.665 CL=.72

The ED took another run at our stops today, but came up just a little short. One thing's for sure, covering at the 95.765 line is the right thing to do. We're currently at breakeven, and I'd dearly love to see the resistance hold; however I'm not holding out too much hope after today's session.

First support target is 95.55.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]ures.com

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday, July 20, 2005

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Erich's Update for Wednesday, July 20, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades
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1: SEPTEMBER CORN
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CU5 O=7 1/2 HI=7 1/2 LO=5 CL=8 1/2

Another typically crazy day in corn today as the bottom fell out of the market. Is this the end of the bull move? It might be, but I'd be looking for possible support to come at 242 before joining the bears.
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=25 HI=30 LO=40 CL=79

Nice dip in cotton today as the market opened with a big gap to the downside. Prices never got close to challenging our exit stop in our short order.

Bring stops at least to breakeven, or intraday resistance at 5020 for tomorrow. First profit target is support at 4921.
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=70 HI=75 LO=68 CL=76

Bean Oil prices shattered the 2525 support area today as the market fell off hard. I was thinking about shorting BO below today's low, but was a little apprehensive about the support here as well as a market's tendency to stall after a bigger move.

Think I'll sit on my hands tomorrow. If we see a hiccup it might be a little safer to sell.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=70 HI=60 LO=50 CL=27

Cattle rallied today as we expected. The market never threatened our sell order, but it was a "just in case" type of order. RSI is near a test point and we could see a bounce tomorrow; however I wouldn't mind seeing another higher session, just to give us a good selling price.

I'll run the short again tomorrow, just in case, but I think we'll be adjusting it tomorrow.

*SELL August Live Cattle at 7797
*Stop 7857
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 7607
*Approximate Profit Potential: $760 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=35 HI=42 LO=19 CL=25

An inside day for cocoa today as prices were unable to break resistance. If you brought stops in then you would have been stopped out on the reversal. If you left them where they were then you're still long this market.

Prices have shown us resistance, so now it remains to seen if support will hold. If it does we should have another chance at taking this trade long.
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6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
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WU5 O=50 HI=50 LO=35 CL=38 1/2

Wacky Wheat backed up in a big way today hitting our exit stop for a $175 loss. I was a little skiddish about the 352 1/4 close yesterday because of it's proximity to resistance. The only good news is that we could pull the pin early to avoid bigger losses.

Nothing here tomorrow.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=97 HI=30 LO=84 CL=18

The Canadian Dollar showed slight support of the 50% retracement level today. This isn't quite the pullback I was looking for as I thought we'd see something closer to 8160; however if we get a confirmation of support tomorrow I might consider a buy on Thursday.
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8: SEPTEMBER SILVER
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SIU5 O=.5 HI=5 LO=5 CL=8.5

I told you it was a HIGH risk trade, didn't I? Needless to say I'm not too impressed with silver's lack of commitment today. The market is merely ranging without sticking to any support and/or resistance breakouts, which is making it very difficult to trade with tight stops.

You could easily bracket the support and resistance and trade the breakout side; however I would continue to favour selling.
I think I'm going to give it a rest though and go look at a copper chart for a while.
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9: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM6 O=.705 HI=.76 LO=.69 CL=.74

The ED bulls came gunning for our stops today but came up just a little short of our shorts. We're hanging in there, but just barely. Hopefully we'll see resistance hold and lower rates follow tomorrow.

First support target is 95.55.
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10: WILD CARD
==================================================
No wild card market - yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, July 20, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=5-19 HI=6-08 LO=5-11 CL=6-01

We opened the day by moving lower, all the way down to 115-11 which turned out to be the low of the day. From there we began a climb that eventually took us back to 116-08. I passed on the break below -14 as it looked to me we'd run out of gas. I bought 115-20 as my first foray into the market. I exited at -26 banking 6 ticks. Next up I sold -27 and exited at -25 for 2 ticks. We traded sideways for half an hour establishing -24 as a force. I bought -25 and watched as we zoomed up to the high at -08. I bailed at -05 for 12 ticks. By then we were knocking on the door of the final hour so I closed up shop and took my 20 ticks, $625.

Pegging the high at -08 and quickly pulling back to settle at -01 returns us to the monster support area of 116-00 which bcomes our focus for tomorrow. Being so close to the line in the sand opens the door for 115-16 and 116-16 as well. I will be hesitant to do any quarter trades tomorrow but will if something shapes up as prominently as did 115-24 today.

Tomorrow Fed Chair Greenspan testifies before Congress. It will be his last apearance before them as he will retire early next year. This testimony is given twice a year by the Fed Chair. It is an event with the power to move the market. You know what, the more I think about and this and write to more I think I'll take off tomorrow. Let's do that. It just isn't the risk for a $500 trade. I'll be flat tomorrow and we'll take another look tomorrow night in the update.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.040 HI=.055 LO=.040 CL=.050

We're still short into tomorrow from 96.055 with the stop at .065. Status quo. We'll see if we can weather hurricane "Greenie" tomorrow.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=97 HI=30 LO=84 CL=18

The big gap down put us on the sidelines. The combination of Greenspan testimony and the release tomorrow of Canada's leading economic indicators is a potent enough cocktail to convince me to sit out tomorrow.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=88 HI=41 LO=81 CL=37

A huge gap lower here ... 70 points ... nothing done. I'll sit tomorrow out here as well.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=2.60 HI=1.90 LO=2.10 CL=1.20

When the trading window opened to us we were slippin' and a slidin' around 664. A classic example of the power of the S&R range played out at 666/665. We zoomed up to 665.80 ... remember, we have to wait for the top edge to be broken to buy. Never broke 666 so we sat tight instead of buying 665. It failed big time at 665.80 dropping back to 663.80 in the blink of an eye. No damage done. We bought 666.40. We bailed at 667.80 on the big failure at 668. Out with $140. I bought 666.30 again. We exited this one at 670.80 for $450. A very spectacular failure sent us back to 667. I was done before then with my total of $590 .

No trade tomorrow. To have an open trade on while Greenspan's mouth is open is NOT an attractive RRR.
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6: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=9.70 HI=1.00 LO=8.90 CL=0.20

Nothing here today. $10 channel tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.25 HI=.30 LO=.40 CL=.79

Big gap lower put us out of action right from the start. A beal blow to the chart structure. I'll buy a break above 50.50 tomorrow. The stop goes at 50.43 and we'll roll to B/E at 50.61. First target is 52.00. Keep RRR in a firm grasp.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=35 HI=42 LO=19 CL=25

We sold 1438, took it at 1420 for $180. I bought 22 and out at 30 for another $80.

1440 and 1420 are the magic numbers again tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.67 1/2 HI=2.67 1/2 LO=2.54 1/2 CL=2.59

Holy Bat correction ... I'll sell a break below 2.56 tomorrow. The funds took profits today. The weather outlook is anything but encouraging ... divergent forces at work. We'll see who wins the tug-o-war.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.63 HI=3.65 LO=3.49 1/2 CL=3.52

We sold 3.64 and bailed at 3.64 for 10 cents, $500. Sell a break below 3.50 or buy a retest that fails and begins higher from there. Stops and rolls ... penny and a quarter.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Tuesday, July 19, 2005

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Erich's Update for Tuesday, July 19, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades.

"The best way for a person to have happy thoughts is to count his blessings and not his cash." - Anonymous
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1: SEPTEMBER CORN
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CU5 O=6 1/2 HI=3 LO=3 1/2 CL=0

It looks like we might have missed the remainder of this leg of corn's rally as prices pushed a little closer to the 265 resistance today. I expect to see a reaction here and maybe even a substantial dip, before prices possibly mount another run. Nothing here tomorrow.
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=20 HI=35 LO=15 CL=80

Cotton prices fell off enough to find our short order today; however the market didn't quite have the downward momentum I was hoping for.

There was a bit of a bounce off today's low as prices anticipated support at 5100. We're still short this market but barely. Good news is that 5080 is a significant resistance level, as is 5100 where are stops are. If prices do back up on us, it will be a good signal to leave on.

First profit target is support at 4921.
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=80 HI=25 LO=63 CL=89

Not much of a day in the bean oil market as prices still traded near the ranges of the last couple of days. Not quite sure what to expect from this market and I don't think Bean Oil knows what to do either.

I'll keep watching though. We could see further reinforcement of support and resistance in the next few days.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=50 HI=87 LO=20 CL=50

Cattle prices certainly didn't do as I thought they would today. The market held the support line firmly and actually didn't trade too much at all.

I do anticipate a bit of a bounce tomorrow but will continue with the short trade for the time being as it is with the trend.

*SELL August Live Cattle at 7797
*Stop 7857
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 7607
*Approximate Profit Potential: $760 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=15 HI=44 LO=12 CL=39

Strong day in cocoa as prices bounced off support at 1415 and were strong enough to break resistance at 1430 to find our buy order.

There is enough room here to bring stops to breakeven (or slightly short of breakeven) if you choose; however we do not have a lot of money at risk, so if your account can stand it you might want to leave them where they are. We're at an important test point for the market resistance- wise, so we'll either see a break or bounce tomorrow.

First upside target is resistance at 1500 - 1510 (1507).
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6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
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WU5 O=48 HI=4 LO=42 1/2 CL=52 1/4

A nice, steady session for wheat today as prices took yet another stab at the 342 support before bouncing higher. Resistance at 349 finally gave way as well as secondary resistance at 352 1/4, so we're long this market right now.

Did you notice the close? Yep, right on our entry, so there's not much we can do with the stops right now. I would have liked to have seen a higher close as the resistance is still intact...but we'll see what tomorrow brings.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=23 HI=64 LO=16 CL=33

Strange little day in the CD today as resistance held but support crept slightly higher. RSI is hooking, but nothing near a test point, so I'm a little suspicious.

Think I'll wait for a confirmation of support before trying to get on board here. If rates do trade higher I suspect we'll see another testing of the 8330 line before the market really takes off.
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8: SEPTEMBER SILVER
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SIU5 O=9 HI=5.5 LO=8.5 CL=0.5

Wassup with silver giving us such a small range? Is there a report due out that I don't know anything about? Resistance took another tap today, and quite honestly it looks as though the market wants to trade higher; however it's technically in a downtrend so I'll keep looking short.

You can run with the weekend trade, or tighten the parameters to reflect today's session.

*SELL September Silver at 697
*Stop 701.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 671
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH (hey, it's silver)
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9: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM6 O=.74 HI=.74 LO=.72 CL=.725

Finally! I was beginning to think the ED wasn't going to move at all, but today the market went lower on a gap. Small session overall, but enough that we can at least bring stops to breakeven going into tomorrow.

First support target is 95.55.
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10: WILD CARD
==================================================
No wild card market - yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, July 19, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-14 HI=6-15 LO=5-17 CL=5-22

The tight range I predicted wa even more so than I'd anticipated. For 3/4 of the day we traded in a quarter poit range, -08 to -16. I sold -13 three times all of them ending in B/E. Along the way I also bought 1 at -09 which I exited at -13 for 4 ticks. Late in the day I sold -07 on a break of -08. We kept dropping as we moved into the final hour. We spent half an hour bouncing around 116-01 to -04. Given that 116-00 was such a monster support number it was to be anticipated the market would struggle mightily before breaking it or bouncing significantly so I vowed to hang on until we had resolution. We finally got it in the form of a big dive touching 115-17. I exited at 115-21 picking up a nice 18 ticks giving me 22 ticks on the day, $687.

With the crumbling of support at 116-00 we could easily pull out another point or even 2 in short order. It would not surprise me in the least to see a 114-00 trade or lower by Friday. We'd never trade this view, I offer it up for reference only. Tomorrow we'll be ready to pounce at 116-00, 115-24 or 115-16. The market will be a little wobbly tomorrow as it deals with a bit of a hangover from the effort of breaking 116-00 so I'm willing to put -24 in play from the opening bell.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.055 HI=.055 LO=.040 CL=.045

I sold 96.055 today and have moved the stop to 96.065. We'll see. .040 is as close as we have to a line in the sand as weak in structure as it is. If we don't move thru it in the next couple of sessions I will lose patience with this trade PDQ.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=23 HI=64 LO=16 CL=33

The gap up was too big and the subsequent pullback was too small. lol. Result? No trade today. I'll sell abreak below 8220 tomorrow with a stop at 8233, today's close. Roll to B/E at 8210 and then pick up the management from TT Weekend.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=66 HI=86 LO=59 CL=62

We jumped around a bit, 25 points or so, only to settle at the smae ol' 62 from Friday. I'll hang on to my 7750 from the weekend for now. I'll bet they give us a shot before moving out in search of 7800.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=6.10 HI=6.60 LO=9.50 CL=2.00

Hello 666/665, how you doin'? The trading window opened with "Rusty" hovering about I sold 664.80 and was stopped at 665.70 dropping $90. I cheated a bit and sold 665.50. I thought the failure up at 666.60 was pretty telling ... dare I say an omen at 666? We didn't quite get down to 660 but the failure was visible, I thought. I'm out at 661.50 for $400.

Next up, I bought 1 at 660.40 and bailed at 662.00 for another $160. Bought again at 660.60 and was stopped at B/E. I then bought 660.60 and exited this one at 662.00 for another $140. Bought 661.10 and out at 663.10 for $200. Enough. I packed it in unable to sustain the necessary concentration.
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6: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=3.30 HI=5.00 LO=9.20 CL=0.20

I bought 421.50 and exited at 422.00 for a whopping $50. We fell back to 420. $10 channel again tomorrow. 420 is pretty stout support I look for it to hold despite the weakness of the close.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.20 HI=.35 LO=.15 CL=.80

Cotton opened gap down thru our prefered sell number at 5120 but soon rose back above and was kind enough to fail. I sold 51.20 and we immediately raced to 50.30. I've made the point 'bout a million times that you want to close out trades ib Cotton at the end of a big run regardless of the number the run ends at. 50.50 was a powerful number on top of the big run theory. I exited as fast as I could getting filled at 50.40 for 80 points, $400. Not too shabby for 25 minutes of effort. Oh yeah, where'd we close? 50.80 ... a pretty solid correction.

Tomorrow I'll buy a break back above 51.00 plus I'll keep atll the TT weekend numbers in play as well.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=15 HI=44 LO=12 CL=39

I bought 1422 and off we went. Once above 1440 I rolled to 1437 and was stopped right there. We made $150. For tomorrow the number becomes 1440. I'll buy the break above or sell the failure to press higher .
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.67 HI=2.73 LO=2.63 CL=2.70

More up tick but a very weak close. We poked through 2.70 hitting 2.73 before retreating to close at 2.70. I'm still figuring out how to untie my hands but it isn't coming to me yet. Just watching and managing my spreads as per TT weekend. Despite finishing up 2 cents in the contract the spread changed very little.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.60 HI=3.68 LO=3.56 CL=3.67

After a little early weakness Wheat made a nice run up to 3.68 before pulling back to settle at 3.67. I tried to buy 3.64 but couldn't get it, just wenmt flying right by me. Oh well. Watching tomorrow, looking for a chance to get something done either way off 3.64. We are down a couple of cents overnight. We'll see what we have to contend with in the morning.