Tuesday, July 12, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Tuesday July 12, 2005

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Erich's Update for Tuesday, July 12, 2005
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"Don't be discouraged. It's often the last key in the bunch that opens the lock." - Anonymous
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1: SEPTEMBER CORN
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CU5 O=3 HI=7 1/2 LO=1 1/2 CL=5 1/4

Corn gave us a reasonable session today with prices testing the support at 231. Notice we've got good resistance at the close as well at 235 1/4. Given that tomorrow is the WASDE report, I'll look to bracket today's range and trade the breakout side.

*BUY September Corn at 239 1/4
*Stop 234 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 254 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $775 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

OR

*SELL September Corn at 230 3/4
*Stop 235 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 214 1/4 (watch out at 219)
*Approximate Profit Potential: $825 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=25 HI=25 LO=45 CL=01

We're really starting to put the squeeze on the cotton market! Notice how prices ranged between support and resistance today? Did you also notice the strong resistance at 5525? We can use this reinforced resistance area to tighten our trade parameters from the weekend for tomorrow.

*BUY December Cotton at 5531
*Stop 5479
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 5817
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1690 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL December Cotton at 5429
*Stop 5476
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $235 per contract
*Profit Target: 5261
*Approximate Profit Potential: $840 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=90 HI=40 LO=57 CL=15

A rather indecisive day in bean oil today...but that was what we expected with the WASDE report due out in the morning. Like the other grain markets I'll look at bracketing support and resistance and trading the breakout side.

We've got a simultaneous test point in RSI as well as on the price chart. I just hope we don't get voided out of a good trade on a gap.

*BUY December Bean Oil at 2546
*Stop 2509
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $222 per contract
*Profit Target: 2678
*Approximate Profit Potential: $792 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL December Bean Oil at 2447
*Stop 2486
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $234 per contract
*Profit Target: 2326
*Approximate Profit Potential: $726 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=70 HI=80 LO=05 CL=07

Got a nice move through support today which easily allowed us to sell cattle short. The market made large enough gains that we can bring our stops to breakeven for tomorrow.

I hope that cattle continues it's usually tendency of two day rallies/declines, which should allow us to protect a little profit tomorrow. First target is support at 7612.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=20 HI=20 LO=88 CL=06

Cocoa began it's pullback move today, trading slightly higher than last week's session. I would still like to see prices continue higher and possibly test the 1460 resistance before backing off, but the market is in a strong downtrend, so the pullback move might get cut short.

We'll keep an eye on this one tomorrow.
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6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
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WU5 O=35 HI=39 LO=32 1/2 CL=35 1/2

Wheat gave us a "perfect" session to go into tomorrow's WASDE report with. The market clearly showed its lack of commitment by finishing the day near where it began.

I might expect a bounce off the 331 - 332 support tomorrow but I'm not going to be picky. If price fall through support I'll be just as quick to sell.

*BUY September Wheat at 340 1/4
*Stop 336 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 363 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1175 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

OR

*SELL September Wheat at 331 3/4
*Stop 335 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 316 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $775 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=46 HI=74 LO=38 CL=43

A bullish/bearish day for the CD as rates rallied higher but the overall session was rather bearish. I would like to see rates fall off a bit from here, or better yet channel for a few days to allow us to "safely" buy back into the market.
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8: SEPTEMBER SILVER
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SIU5 O=2 HI=3 LO=2 CL=0.5

A rather strong session for silver today as prices came up short of our 715 resistance target. I would like to see a reaction to the resistance here tomorrow which would get me looking to sell the market on Wednesday.

Just watching and waiting for now.
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9: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM6 O=.825 HI=.825 LO=.785 CL=.815

If you took the weekend trade today you would have been filled as rates broke the 9579 support level just enough to find the entry order. I expected the ED to make a stab at the support line today, but was hoping for a bigger commitment, one way or the other.

If you're not currently short you might want to hold off another day to see if the support breaks or holds, before entering the trade.

First profit target is support at 9556.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, July 11, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=7-00 HI=7-05 LO=6-14 CL=7-04

We started the day at 117-00. All we had to do was wait a bit to see which direction the break would occur. It was down, we sold 116-28. At -19 I rolled to 21 and was promptly stopped there for 7 ticks. We climbed back to -24 but couldn't break it so I sold -23. We went to -17 and I grabbed -19 for 4 ticks. I then sold -15 and was stopped out at -19 for a loss of 4. I bought 116-21 and was stopped out at -25 for 4. To finish off the day I bought -25 and exited at 117-00 for another 7.

On the day we took 'em for a total of 18 ticks, $562.

We closed the day at 117-04 so we'll be after 117-16, 117-08 and 117-00 for tomorrow.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.090 HI=.095 LO=.070 CL=.085

I sold 96.080, we closed the day at .085. The stop is at 96.105 for risk of $62. I will reverse the trade at that level if we're stopped out tomorrow.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=46 HI=74 LO=38 CL=43

I'll continue to focus on the nyumbers from the weekend TT but with today's action I believe we put 8240 in play. I will sell a break below 8240 with a stop at 8247. The roll to B/E comes at 8235 and we'll pick up our target from TT over the weekend.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=55 HI=20 LO=53 CL=11

We never got down there, so nothing done. I will stay with my number at 7700 but will also sell a failed test at 7850 or buy a break above that level. Stop for the buy is 7847 and 7553 for the sell.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=5.80 HI=5.50 LO=5.00 CL=3.40

We opened the RTH session with the russell trading 666. Yeah, like I was gonna' play THAT! We rallied strongly from there and leapfrogged all mt numbers from the weekend. Nothing done today.

I even went to the weekly and monthly chart to get some guidance and there was none. We are sidelined until the market either builds sufficient structure to warrant a trade or until the market slips back under our numbers.
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6: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=5.20 HI=7.40 LO=4.30 CL=6.30

Gold hid from us by putting up a day inside the boundaries we'd established and never came close to unleashing a channel trade. Same deal for tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.25 HI=.25 LO=.45 CL=.01

I tried to get something close to 55.00 sold, they wouldn't let me. I finally sold 54.90 which was certainly pushing the envelope of acceptable fills. When we broke 54.50 I rolled the stop to .51 and got thrown out at .55 for 35 points, $175.

Same number plus 54.50 for tomorrow.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=20 HI=20 LO=88 CL=06

I got one sold at 1413 by a whisker. Once 1390 was broken I rolled my stop to 1391 and was stopped out at 1395 for $180.
I'll stay with 1420 again tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.44 1/2 HI=2.49 LO=2.42 1/2 CL=2.46 3/4

I bought 2.43. At 2.49 I rolled my stop to 2.48 1/4. I was stopped at 2.45 3/4 picking up $137.

I'll go witht he same numbers from TT for tomorrow plus I trade a failed retest at 2.49 with a sell. I will NOT buy the break above thta number for now.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.49 HI=3.52 1/2 LO=3.46 1/2 CL=3.49

I bought 3.50 1/2 and was stopped at B/E. Same number, 3.50, for tomorrow.

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition

Both Parts One and Two of the Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition are now posted at the website: http://www.supportandresistance.com/testdrive.html

Subscribers got these on Sunday, and in full. To get yours complete and on time, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Have a great week!

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday July 8, 2005

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Market Update for Friday, July 8, 2005
==================================================
Hot off the commodity presses to you. (Well, if you're a Subscriber, anyway) TestDrivers get these after the fact so they can track the trades, Subscribers get theirs the evening before the market opens.

To get yours hot off the presses, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Need another reason? Check this out: http://www.supportandresistance.com/VIPsubscribe.html
This service is FREE to Subscribers!
==================================================
1: SEPTEMBER CORN
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CU5 O=4 HI=4 1/2 LO=4 CL=1 3/4

The corn rollercoaster continued today with prices bouncing back from yesterday's decline. Not too unusual to see at this time of the year with all the weather if's playing havoc with the market.

Think I'll stand aside tomorrow though. I'd love to get in, but this action is making me nauseous.
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=10 HI=35 LO=82 CL=88

Ooooo, cotton tried to get tricky today! Notice how the market recovered off the RSI trendline? I wasn't quite sure if this would cause support, but it looks as though it did.

The suggested trade was a countertrend trade anyway, which is not my favourite type of position to take. Expect cotton prices to rally tomorrow and make a run at the 5760 resistance. If it wasn't a Friday I'd consider buying above today's high.
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=00 HI=70 LO=95 CL=53

Big opening gap to the downside saw bean prices rally for the rest of the session. This is really a crazy chart we're looking at right now. It seems as though prices are rejecting going lower, yet don't have enough oomph (that's a technical term) to continue higher.

Just watching tomorrow.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=70 HI=75 LO=90 CL=10

Cattle prices retreated from resistance today and never rallied enough to find our order. This is fine, as it is what support and resistance are supposed to do.

The bearish session is likely to be followed by another tomorrow as cattle has a tendency to "follow up" for a day or two. I'd like to short the market again, but am not too comfortable holding this position over the weekend.

If we're lucky we will see another test of the 7925 support which will put us in great shape to sell next week.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=02 HI=24 LO=95 CL=97

Didn't get the reaction we wanted in cocoa as prices continued to slide lower. The market has not run away from us yet, so I'm confident we will be able to sell on the next support level. But given the length of time cocoa has been in decline a pullback would be very welcome.
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6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
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WU5 O=38 HI=45 3/4 LO=37 CL=44

A wacky day in the wheat market as we saw a bullish bear session - prices rallied, but for the most part traded lower than yesterday's session. I don't expect wheat to move too far tomorrow going into the weekend. The weather sensitivity of the market has a way of putting the brakes on.

Think I'll just watch.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=11 HI=66 LO=94 CL=56

Caught a nice break in the CD today as prices rallied off support. The market easily found our entry and continued higher from there, never threatening our stop loss - just the way I like it. ;-)

First profit target is at 8189, and I hope to hit that tomorrow so we can be flat for the weekend. Bring exit stops just under 8147 to protect yourself in case of a pullback.
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8: SEPTEMBER SILVER
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SIU5 Oi7 HIp9 LOi6 CLi8.5

No surprise here as silver prices continued to rally a bit today. We had the sell below support in place, just in case of a reversal, but the bullish session is welcome as it allows us a better selling opportunity.

But not tomorrow.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.005 HI=.005 LO=.925 CL=.935

Take a good look folks. You don't normally see the ED make a gap like this to open the session! In spite of the big opening gap, rates faded the open and fell off to the 95.925 support level we have been watching.

I'm still more bearish than bullish on this market and will continue to take my time waiting for the next good selling opportunity.
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10: WILD CARD
==================================================
No wild card market - yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Thursday July 7, 2005

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Erich's Update for Thursday, July 7, 2005
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Our Tom is in a lot of pain and facing surgery this week, so there will not be an update from him for a few days.

"Only losers play every hand of poker." - Tom Loge'
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1: SEPTEMBER CORN
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CU5 O=0 1/2 HI=2 3/4 LO=8 1/2 CL=9 3/4

Corn put on the brakes today as prices weren't able to trade above yesterday's high. The market is looking very bearish for tomorrow, but is still technically in an uptrend.

A lower session tomorrow will confirm the resistance however and *might* get us looking short before the weekend. Likewise a higher session could get us to buy.
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=55 HI=75 LO=93 CL=96

A bit unexpected move in cotton today as prices moved rather sharply to the downside. RSI is at a testpoint and very bearish for tomorrow. The only problem I have is selling a technically bullish market. We might run into problems at 5400, but you could sell the support if you wanted.

*SELL December Cotton at 5467
*Stop 5516
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $245 per contract
*Profit Target: 5261
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1030 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5

A rather weak day in the bean oil market. Again the biggie Bean contract looks more bearish than the oil market; however prices are still in an uptrend so we can't get too aggressive selling - yet.

Standing aside for tomorrow. We should get a better idea of where prices want to go on Thursday.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=50 HI=95 LO=35 CL=62

Cattle is calling my bluff as prices continue to contend with the resistance at the 8115 area. Prices are barely into bullish territory now, so I might look to buy some cows if we see a break of the resistance.

*SELL August Live Cattle at 8122
*Stop 8067
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 8297
*Approximate Profit Potential: $700 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=20 HI=30 LO=07 CL=11

Cocoa testing the 1420 support line again today, and actually broke it. I was expecting to see a bit of a reaction here, and now that we didn't get it I'm very suspicious of tomorrow's session.

Might see today's reaction tomorrow - so we'd best stand by.
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6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
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WU5 O46 1/2 HI48 LO41 1/2 CL42

Wheat bailed off the 349 resistance today. Prices were unable to better yesterday's high which makes me a bit suspicious of yesterday's rally. We could see wheat fall off a bit tomorrow, which would confirm the resistance and put us in a position to sell again.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=61 HI=12 LO=58 CL=95

Good bounce off the support level today, just as we hoped we'd see. I guess it's time to put up or shut up, isn't it? We've got strong resistance at 8110 - 8115 which we should clear before committing to the trade. I'll also look to cover on a break below 8100.

*BUY September Canadian Dollar at 8117
*Stop 8094
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $230 per contract
*Profit Target: 8189
*Approximate Profit Potential: $700 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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8: SEPTEMBER SILVER
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SIU5 O=9.5 HI=9.5 LO=9 CL=5.5

Silver continues to react to the neckline from the rounded top formation. I would expect to see a bit of a rally, but RSI is at a test point so I'll look to cover the trend side of the trade, even though it might not get filled.

*SELL September Silver at 683.5
*Stop 689.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 656.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1350 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.875 HI=.885 LO=.855 CL=.875

No surprise in the ED today as the market continued to react to support at 9583. Look for rates to rally a bit over the next few days and maybe test resistance at 95.925 before falling off again.
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10: WILD CARD
==================================================
No wild card market - yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]