Thursday, June 30, 2005

Traders Helping Traders for Wednesday, June 29, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, June 29, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=8-27 HI=8-28 LO=8-11 CL=8-16

An opening gap lower confirmed my suspicions from yesterday's comments. We sold 118-27 and got stopped out at 118-23 for 4 ticks. I sold -23. I rolled to B/E at 19 and to -17 when we broke -16. I exited by choice at -13 for 10 ticks. There appeared no futher setups at our numbers and then we were into the final hour.

The close at 118-16 has us ready to go tomorrow on a break lower from there. No buys. I expect to see as much as a full point come out of the bonds tomorrow so be on your toes.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.205 HI=.215 LO=.185 CL=.195

We were stopped out at 96.205 for a whopping $25. I'm done with the Eurodollar until Friday at the earliest.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=25 HI=55 LO=07 CL=39

I began trying to sell the break below 8120 but couldn't get it done. I bought 8110 again and jumped off the bus at 8138 for $280. I left some stuff on the table today. The 2 failures at 45 looked defining to me. I was wrong, of course and my conservative view probably cost me a a hundred bucks or a bit more. It is a good exercise to look hard at the RRR scenario at the 8145 failures. I think it is a good illustration of the clarity of the call to action that periodic RRR calculations can provide. If you're wrong the worst that happens is you leave something on the table. If you reverse the action the worst that can happen is you you lose or give back lots of the accumulated profits. I would prefer to leave it on the table ... sort of like we leave milk and cookies for Santa Claus ... appease the trading gods.

I'll play the same three numbers again tomorrow.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=0.80 HI=4.70 LO=0.70 CL=4.60

All in all a pretty cool day for us. After a bit of a slow start the market respected our predetermined numbers allowing us a couple of fairly easy trades. As the trading window opened we were wallowing around at 633 ... not one of our numbers unfortunately. As we took out 637 I bought 637.30. I jumped out at 638.30 for a hundred. We came back to 637.40 which allowed me to buy 637.60. I exited by choice at 640.40 for $280. From there I managed to sell the low of the next candle at 639.70. I bailed at 640.00 for a $30 loss. I then bought 640.30 and exited at 641.60 for $130. My fingers were flying pretty good at this point. I bought 640.30 once more and exited at 645.40 for $510. Wheww!. I was done ... literally.

The full array of numbers for tomorrow.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=9.00 HI=9.30 LO=7.20 CL=7.70

Good sized gap down. I never felt we got the confirmation sufficient to sell one. $10 Channel for tomorrow.
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6: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.40 HI=.40 LO=.85 CL=.99

I sold 54.95 and we were off to the races before I could even blink. I bailed at 54.15. I didn't expect 54.00 to be as big a factor as it turned out to be. A good lesson in respecting those big, fat round numbers. Let's make a rule, shall we? We'll ALWAYS protect them with a roll ... period. Out with $400.

We'll revert back to the numbers from last week. 53.50, 53.00, 52.50, 52.00 and 51.50.
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7: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=37 HI=38 LO=06 CL=09

I sold 1526 and got stopped out at 11 for $150. I had rolled the stop to 1511 when we broke below 10 on the ol' once broken you won't find me when you come back.

I'll go with 1520 and 1585 again tomorrow.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.20 1/2 HI=2.21 1/2 LO=2.16 1/4 CL=2.18 1/2

Well, there definitely wasn't any turn around to this Tuesday. I did nothing today.

I will play 2.17/2.16 as a range tomorrow. I will also play 2.20. Either way, peolpe. Penny and a quarter ... stops and rolls.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.29 HI=3.30 LO=3.25 1/2 CL=3.27 3/4

I tried to sell something above 3.30 and they wouldn't let me. Nothing for us today. I'll play 3.31 and 3.25 1/2 tomorrow. Either way. Penny and a quarter stops and rolls.
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Erich's Update for Wednesday, June 29, 2005
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"In matters of conscience, first thoughts are best; in matters of prudence, last thoughts are best." - Robert Hall
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FYI
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I apologize for the lateness of this update. A personal matter arose which had to be dealt with immediately. You will likely be reading this Wednesday morning - these are your trades for today.

Sorry for the inconvenience,

Erich
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1: SEPTEMBER CORN
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CU5 O=9 1/2 HI=1 LO=6 CL=7 3/4

As suspected corn never rallied high enough today to find our buy order; however the market did hold support which is very encouraging for tomorrow.

I will look at buying corn on Wednesday if we see it trade above today's high. I'd rather wait for prices to breach the 235 resistance, mind you, but this will place more money at risk.

With the RSI testpoint I'll look at buying early in hopes of keeping risk to a minimum.

*BUY September Corn at 232 1/4
*Stop 227 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 255 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=40 HI=40 LO=85 CL=99

Oh sure...now you do as your supposed to! @#$%! cotton market!

Cotton gave us a big decline off the 5540 - 5550 resistance today. I expect prices to head lower tomorrow, but I'm not selling. In fact I would look for possible support at 5270 as a chance to get long.
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=05 HI=21 LO=16 CL=71

Bean Oil continued lower, giving us a serious test of the price trendline as prices reacted a little early to the 2400 support area. Expect prices to rally tomorrow, but the problem is finding the right spot to buy.

*BUY December Bean Oil at 2523
*Stop 2479
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $264 per contract
*Profit Target: 2678
*Approximate Profit Potential: $930 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=90 HI=05 LO=02 CL=10

There you have it boys 'n girls, the market finally hooked off the RSI trendline today. Notice too where prices found support? Yep, right on the ole 8000 level from which we tried to trade yesterday.

We've got the green light to sell tomorrow. This is a little more aggressive than waiting for the confirmation (ie. a lower session tomorrow) so decide for yourself if you're up to the risk.

*SELL August Live Cattle at 7977
*Stop 8042
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 7772 (watch out for 7850)
*Approximate Profit Potential: $820 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=37 HI=38 LO=06 CL=09

A "textbook" day in cocoa as prices continued to test the 1500 support area. RSI is at a testpoint, and since this is the fourth bounce off the trendline I would favour a break rather than a bounce. For this reason I would look to sell the market short tomorrow if we trade below 1500.

*SELL September Cocoa at 1498
*Stop 1517
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $190 per contract
*Profit Target: 1431
*Approximate Profit Potential: $670 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
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WU5 O=39 1/2 HI=41 LO=35 3/4 CL=38 1/4

Wheat support held today as prices traded in a moderate range. I would look to buy the market long above today's high, with exit stops below the obvious support on the low. If that's a little on the rich side, then you can save a couple of dollars by placing stops below the 337 support but I don't think I'd go much tighter than that.

*BUY September Wheat at 341 3/4
*Stop 336 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 366 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1250 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CD=5 O=25 HI=55 LO=07 CL=39

Near identical day to what we saw yesterday as the CD continues to test both support and resistance. We had been concentrating on a buy scenario as this is the market's dominate trend; however you could also treat the current formation as a channel and trade the breakout side.

Tomorrow's FOMC report will likely have some residual effect on the Canadian Dollar, but for the time being I'll still look to buy.

*BUY September Canadian Dollar at 8163
*Stop 8147
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $160 per contract
*Profit Target: 8238
*Approximate Profit Potential: $750 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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8: SEPTEMBER SILVER
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SIU5 O=9.5 HI=9.5 LO=0 CL=4

Silver made a big move to the downside today easily filling our short order. If this were any other market I would consider leaving the stops where they are for the moment; however you never really know with silver so I'll bring the stops to breakeven and hope for the best.

First target is support at 695.5.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.065 HI=.075 LO=.03 CL=.04

Interesting day in the ED today as rates traded lower on a gap. No doubt traders are trying to position themselves ahead of the FOMC report due out tomorrow morning.

Notice that RSI shows the market right at the 50% level of the indicator - suggesting no bias in either direction. It's not a coincidence that it should find this neutral zone the day before the report you know.

As you know I'm a bit bias when it comes to the ED and would rather sell it than buy it; however I will consider bracketing today's range and letting the market tell me which way to trade:

*BUY March (06) Eurodollar at 9608.5
*Stop 9602.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 9627.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL March (06) Eurodollar at 9602.5
*Stop 9608.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 9584.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $450 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Tuesday, June 28, 2005

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Erich's Update for Tuesday, June 28, 2005
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"In matters of conscience, first thoughts are best; in matters of prudence, last thoughts are best." - Robert Hall
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=6 1/2 HI=7 LO=5 CL=1 1/4

Quite the session in corn today as prices fell off sharply before finding support and trading higher. While it doesn't look too encouraging for the bulls right now I will consider buying corn if we see a rally above the 238 - 239 resistance.

We might not get filled, but we should avoid a bad move as well.

*BUY September Corn at 239 1/4
*Stop 235 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 255 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $800 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=90 HI=48 LO=70 CL=43

I thought that cotton would give us a reaction as early as 5540, but it looks as though prices managed to push a little higher today, getting to the 5550 resistance instead.

I'm expecting a reaction here tomorrow and briefly toyed with the idea of selling to support at 5340...but decided to pass on this one.
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=30 HI=35 LO=78 CL=03

We finally got our pullback to the 2460 area as bean oil made a huge drop. We're testing the RSI trendline so if we see a small session tomorrow, where the support holds, then we'll look at buying on Wednesday.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=70 HI=80 LO=25 CL=57

Cattle prices finally tested the trendline today. In hindsight I was a little too aggressive with this trade as the market moved against us rather quickly - stopping us out for a small loss.

Looks like support is holding and we can probably expect prices to rally tomorrow, but we are up against a couple of trendlines, so I think I'll just hold for another day.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=35 HI=50 LO=11 CL=45

Cocoa bounced off the 1515 support "area" as we thought it might. The market is looking a little more bullish than it did toward the end of last week, but to tell the truth I don't see anything overly promising right now.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=45 HI=46 LO=35 1/2 CL=40 1/2

Wheat followed the other grains lower today. I'd like to do a similar trade as what we're looking at in corn; however the setup isn't quite as clear.

Think I'll wait for confirmation before getting on board.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=11 HI=62 LO=05 CL=37

Strange little look in the CD today as rates tried to break resistance yet again without succeeding. You could run the weekend trade again tomorrow, but understand that it will be slightly more risky. The FOMC report is out Wednesday, and while this directly affects the US Dollar it is likely to spill over into the other currencies as well.

*BUY September Canadian Dollar at 8163
*Stop 8147
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $160 per contract
*Profit Target: 8238
*Approximate Profit Potential: $750 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=3.5 HI=4.5 LO=6 CL=9

Amazing day in silver as the market continued to flatline. I'm starting to like this trade more and more as the pending breakout could be a doozie. The only *problem* is that this is silver and an unexpected clearing day might precede the breakout.

*BUY July Silver at 739.5
*Stop 735.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 764.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1200 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL July Silver at 719.5
*Stop 725
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 695.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1200 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.125 HI=.13 LO=.10 CL=.11

Smallish day in the ED is not a surprise after the previous rally coupled by the pending FOMC report on Wednesday. I would expect another small day tomorrow which should give us a chance to trade the market on Wednesday after the report comes out.

The FOMC report should light a bit of a fire under the market.
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10: WILD CARD
==================================================
No wild card market - yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, June 28, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=9-02 HI=9-10 LO=8-26 CL=9-08

My theory that it may take -08 and -24 trades to get anything done was in fact the case. I sold at -07 and exited at -02 for 5 ticks. That's all they'd give us today.

The close at 119-08 leaves us just shy of contracts highs and clearly the market is showing some strength. My bet is we'll see some price leak out tomorrow as I don't see anyone brave enough to continue pressing the prices higher in the face of FOMC on Thursday. But, the fact of the matter is we never know what the market will do until it does it. We'll be watching for an opportunity to sell 119-16 or 119-00 tomorrow. We'll also be looking to see if -08 holds water.

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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.235 HI=.235 LO=.220 CL=.225

I rolled the stop to 96.205. The very narrow range confirmed my suspicion that .240 is key. I will be gone by end of day tomorrow in any case. I'll bail at any price above .240 tomorrow. I will then sit tight on Thursday and see what we have to work with on Thursday after the dust settles.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=11 HI=62 LO=05 CL=37

I bought 8110 on the belief that 8105 was a failed retest of 8100. I exited at 8154 for $440. I then sold 8157 late in the day after the failure at 8162, I exited at 8140 for $170.

All the same TT numbers for tomorrow ... 8160, 8120 and 8100.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=9.00 HI=2.10 LO=7.30 CL=0.80

We began the day with a buy at 628.30 which we closed at 630.50 for $220. I then sold 629.80 and closed it at 627.80 for $200. I bought 628.30 and exited at 630.00 for $170. I was a little out of breath so I took a rest. If I'd have stayed focused we might have gotten another trade or 2 off our numbers. I came back in time to sell 629.80 and exited at 628.10 for $170. I bought 628.20 and was stopped at B/E. I bought 628.20 again and bailed at 628.80 for $60. I bought 628.20 once more and exited this one at 631.00 for $280. A total $1100 day.

The full array of numbers for tomorrow.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=1.30 HI=1.90 LO=0.10 CL=1.70

Nothing today. $10 Channel for tomorrow.
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6: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.05 HI=.48 LO=.70 CL=.43

I bought 55.08 and got stopped out at 54.85 for a $115 loser. I bought 55.05 and ran with it to 55.35 for $150 getting back even plus lunch money.

All the same numbers from TT again tomorrow.
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7: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=35 HI=50 LO=11 CL=45

I bought 1530 and stopped out at 1529 losing $10. I bought 1530 and was stopped at B/E. I wasn't comfortable and let it be for the rest of the day.

I'll go with the TT numbers from yesterday again tomorrow.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.26 HI=2.28 LO=2.16 CL=2.21 1/2

Remember my comments last week about the weather and the funds? Rain in the forecast and guess who flew the coup? We sold 2.27. I rolled at 2.25 and every 2 cents after on the way down to 2.16. I then rolled the stop to 2.17 1/4 and was stopped at 2.17 1/2 for 9 1/2 cents, $475.

I'm going to look for action at 2.27 1/2 again tomorrow. I will also play 2.17/2.16 as a range. Turn around Tuesday and all that. Be very careful. If you are thinking anything other than a scalp ... stay out. The rain was FORECAST, not a drop fell and the funds can come back as quickly as they departed today.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.36 HI=3.36 LO=3.25 1/2 CL=3.31

I sold 3.34 1/2 and bailed at 3.31 for 3 1/2 cents, $175. I probably would have sold on the break of 3.31 but I was in a headlock over at the Russell and couldn't play them both.

I will play 3.35 and 3.31 tomorrow both ways. Penny and a quarter stops and rolls.

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition for June 26, 2005

Check out the Testdrive version of the Big Weekend Edition at http://www.supportandresistance.com/testdrive.html

Word is that next Wednesday will be the last freebie Support and Resistance webinar. Members only from now on, folks!

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday, June 24, 2005

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Erich's Update for Friday, June 24, 2005

Scroll down for Tom's Trades
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=9 HI=0 1/2 LO=5 3/4 CL=6 1/2

Corn continued it's pullback move today as prices dipped a little lower still. I'm looking for possible support around the 223 - 224 area to hold the market up. If we see a test here tomorrow I'll be considering a buy order beginning next week.
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=30 HI=60 LO=90 CL=46

Ouch...that hurt. Cotton didn't do what it was supposed to at all today as prices whipped us around pretty good. If you took the trade you probably experience some slippage as prices were moving pretty fast.

Not touching this with a 10 foot trading pole tomorrow.
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=68 HI=03 LO=68 CL=74

Not much changed for bean oil today as prices tried to get lower without much success. Still looking for a test of teh 2450 support...but given this week's range I'm not sure we'll get it.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=80 HI=50 LO=80 CL=97

Cattle were trading within yesterday's range as RSI continues to get closer to a testpoint. Dare we hold out for the actual test before placing the order to sell?

Sure...why not.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=67 HI=89 LO=55 CL=79

Cocoa prices inched higher today, but I have to say I'm not overly impressed with the obvious lack of upward momentum. I would definitely bring stops below today's low and/or breakeven for tomorrow's session.

"Flat" is not a bad position to be in for a market like cocoa over the weekend.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=36 HI=37 1/2 LO=31 CL=31 3/4

Wheat prices began a more serious pullback today following the other grain markets lower. I would like to see the pullback continue tomorrow and would like to see support at 327, although if this fails a move to 318 is entirely possible.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=05 HI=50 LO=02 CL=23

Any of these numbers looking familiar? They should as we've been watching this range for most of the week. RSI is close to a test point, but not quite there yet and while rates could run away on us tomorrow I'll hold off one more day.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=6 HI=2 LO=9 CL=7.3

Wow, did we pick good numbers for silver, or what? Yet again the market bounced off the 732 resistance and held the 719 support as well, this gives us an opportunity to either buy or sell the market from the breakout side.

This is a risky trade, especially for a Friday; however the parameters are sound, so if you're inclined:

*BUY July Silver at 733.5
*Stop 728.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 759.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL July Silver at 714.5
*Stop 719.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 687.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1350 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.055 HI=.07 LO=.035 CL=.065

After yesterday's big rally the ED promptly stalled today and couldn't trade over yesterday's range. I would like to see something lower tomorrow, as I believe the downside holds the greater long term potential for this market; however I'll just be watching.
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10: WILD CARD
==================================================
No wild card market - yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
.========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Friday, June 24, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=8-09 HI=8-13 LO=7-30 CL=8-11

I sold -07 on the break of -08. When we broke -00 I rolled to -01 and was stopped there for 6 ticks $187. We turned, went right back to -08 where I sold -07 again. Out at -01 again for another 6 ticks. On the theory that the run to -13 was a synthetic test of 16 that just fell a litle short I sold -12 and exited at -05 on a stop roll triggered by the touch of -03. We picked up 7 on this one. All done. Total for the day ... 19 ticks.

The close at 118-11 has us poised to for a sell trade at 118-16 or 118-00. No buy zone until 117-00.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.225 HI=.230 LO=.205 CL=.220

Basically, we just reversed the day before. I will not take a loss on this trade so ... the stop goes to B/E. We'll wait, then, for the boot, and the move higher to 96.195 or lower to 96.170 to take another flyer.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=05 HI=50 LO=02 CL=23

I bought 8110, rolled to B/E at 8116 and was stopped out at 32. When it went above 40 I rolled the stop to 37. They really tagged us. We did manage to take 'em for $220. I tried to buy again at 8120 ... no dice. I moved on.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=6.70 HI=7.50 LO=5.20 CL=5.30

This will take some effort to keep up. What a day! I started off selling 644.80 and was stopped out at 645.30 loosing $50. Sold 644.80 again and stopped at B/E. Next, I bought 645.30 and exited at 646.40 after the big failure at 647.30 for $110. I sold 644.80 a third time. Third times a charm they say. It sure was for us. BAM! I exited at 640.40 for $440. I next sold 641.10 and out at 635.50 for another $560. Daily total ... $1060

The full array of numbers for tomorrow.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=9.80 HI=4.20 LO=9.30 CL=3.20

Well, whatta' ya know, finally. We bought 441.60 off a classic confirmation testing 440. Went to B/E with the stop as we broke above 442. I bailed at 443.90 when it failed there for the 3rd time. Been a while since we had anything in Gold so I'm quite happy with this little $230 winner.

$10 Channel for tomorrow.
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6: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.30 HI=.60 LO=.90 CL=.46

I bought 52.10 right after the open and was stopped at 52.55 on my 52.65 stop for 45 points $225. I bought 52.55 about 15 minutes later. As we moved into the close I was a tad busy with the Russell. I threw in a sell MOC and went back to work on the Russell. I just got flat lucky. I was filled at 53.46 for 91 points, $455.

All the numbers forom yesterday are back in play ... 53.50, 53.00, 52.50 and 51.50.
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7: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=67 HI=89 LO=55 CL=79

I bought 1565, and stopped at 1579 for $140. I sold 78 and got stopped out at B/E. Same 1520, 1560 and 1580 for tomorrow.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.29 HI=2.30 1/2 LO=2.25 3/4 CL=2.26 1/2

It did get to one of our numbers but it was so late in the day I just let it slide. I'll play 2.32, 2.35 and 2.27 1/2 again tomorrow.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.36 HI=3.37 1/2 LO=3.31 CL=3.31 3/4

Got there too late in the day to be comfortable with it. I let it go. I'll go with 3.35 either way again ... also 3.30.
.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Thursday, June 23, 2005

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Erich's Update for Thursday, June 23, 2005 ==================================================
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=6 HI=6 1/2 LO=8 1/2 CL=9 1/2

Big reaction in corn today. Somebody was certainly cleaning house as prices plummeted from the 236 level. We're just shy of the 227 1/2 support I was looking at the market to recover at and given today's quick move I might hold off until we see either a reaction or possible support at 223.

Watching with great interest tomorrow.
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=60 HI=63 LO=25 CL=29

Okay, so cotton fudged the 5350 line and got to 5363 today...close enough for a market like cotton. Prices fell off sharply today after encountering resistance and the 38% retracement level.

I would consider selling cotton tomorrow on a break below the 5210 support, which should put us back into a downtrend tomorrow. It remains to be seen if the market will find support again - which could cut the move short; however I hope to get stops to breakeven before that could happen.

*SELL December Cotton at 5207
*Stop 5247
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 5069
*Approximate Profit Potential: $690 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=18 HI=20 LO=79 CL=84

A bit of a correction in bean oil today, but the market did manage to hold support. I'm expecting lower prices to follow tomorrow as this market is due for an "adjustment".

Still looking for a buying opportunity around 2450.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=72 HI=40 LO=52 CL=00

Cattle continues to normalize a bit today as RSI moved a little higher. We've still got support in the 7950 area and I am expecting another selling opportunity, but I'm hoping we can hold out one more day.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=63 HI=80 LO=58 CL=69

Bought cocoa today on a halfhearted break of resistance. You might have skipped the trade given the opening gap however if you're long you'll probably want to bring stops up a bit to take some of the risk out of the trade.

The correct stop placement is still the original 1543 but if you wanted to take some of the sting out of a possible reversal, consider placing stops just below today's low (ie. 1553).
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=40 HI=42 LO=35 CL=36

Wheat bounced off the 340 resistance again today as RSI dipped a little lower as well. I might expect to see prices continue lower tomorrow, but I don't think that this is necessarily the end of this move.

I'll just be watching tomorrow.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=28 HI=29 LO=88 CL=20

The CD was recovering a little more today as well as the market dipped somewhat...but not a lot. I would still like to see a test of the 8060 area before buying the market again.

We're very close to an RSI testpoint which will be our timing tool, so it will be interesting to see if we can get 8060 or if current support will hold.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=9.5 HI=2 LO=9.5 CL=5.8

Silver's hanging in...but not by much. The market did close reasonably low today, which is hopeful for tomorrow but I would try to get the stops to breakeven as quickly as possible - if you're currently short.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.025 HI=.08 LO=.015 CL=.075

If you were short the ED from the week before you would have taken a bit of a hit as the market gapped higher. If you were trying to sell this week, then you're still safe as rates never even got close to our order.

I have to admit I don't like buying the market at these levels and would prefer to sell, but I'll just stand aside tomorrow and see what happens. Today's session was obviously strong...so it's not a good time to sell.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, June 23, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=7-27 HI=8-15 LO=7-23 CL=8-14

A big gap up and a continuation even higher kept us sidelined today. Fine with me, THAT I view as prefereble to taking the kind of risk necessary to buy at this level. The close at 118-14 has mre rooting for a test of 118-16 and a failure I can my teeth into with a short trade from there. It is highly likely we'll see more strength before any tradable shortside moves. Patience is the order of the day.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.210 HI=.235 LO=.205 CL=.230

Apparently, they heard me:) A nice little move in our favor today. We are currently about $87 in the black. 96.235 is some pretty stout support. It would be nice if we could dispatch that early tomorrow and move to .270. That's asking a lot, I know. We'll see what they deal us tomorrow and maybe make an adjustment in our stop.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=28 HI=29 LO=88 CL=20

We gapped lower and continued on down. Eventually we broke 8100. It came at the end of such a significant run I was very leery in selling it so sat tight. It started bouncing in 5-10 point increments so I let it be and moved to other markets.

Fot tomorrow I will play either way off 8120 or 8100.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=5.20 HI=8.70 LO=1.30 CL=6.60

Since I added 645 to the mix yesterday and since that number comes from the daily chart and since 646 came from the weekly I decided to let the market play out and make the buy above 646 and the sell below 645. I bought 646.30 and exited at 647.70 for $110. I that with a sell at 644.80. We fell from the entry straight to 641.30. I made my way to the exit as quickly as possible and mangaed an out at 641.70 for $310. Next up I bought 642.30 as again the 642 I added to the mix came from the chart so the buy was above 42 and the sell below 641.50. I exited at 643.40 adding $190 to the take. Another buy followed at 642.40. We rode this one to 645.30 for $290. About an hour later I sold 644.80 and bailed at 643.00 for another $180. I was plum worn out by this time so I packed it in with a day total of $1080.

All the TT numbers plus those added yesterday are in play for tomorrow.

There is a lesson worth mentioning at this point. I learned a few years ago, back in the day's when I daytraded the emini S&P under Marsh Jones' tutelage, I have both physical and mental limitations. The brain power and stamina it takes to trade at the pace required by what I do is NOT sustainable indefinitely. When you feel the focus go, the sharpness drain away ... don't fight it. Fold the tent, hang out the gone fishing sign. Go hit a bucket of balls, chase your significant other around the house, go play catch with your kid ... anything that takes you out of the trader realm. It is an important lesson to absorb.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=7.80 HI=0.90 LO=6.50 CL=0.50

We can't catch a break lately in Gold. A good sized gap lower put us on the trailer. For those of you not familiar with the term ... when you are involved in motor racing and you have been soundly thrashed by the competition it is said they put you on the trailer. Meaning your car gets packed up for the trip home ... i.e. you are toast, done for the day.

$10 channel and 442 for tomorrow.
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6: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.60 HI=.63 LO=.25 CL=.29

Another gap opening market. 53.50 was an area of S&R congestion. I jumped the gun a bit and sold at 53.40. I rolled to B/E at 53.30 and again at 53.00. 52.50 was a clear "what's most likely" place and I rolled and was stopped out at 52.60 for 80 points, $400. I followed that trade up with another sell off the retest of 53.00 by selling 52.85 and getting stopped at 52.50 for another 35 points, $175.

I'll trade 51.50, 52.50, 53.00, 53.50 tomorrow with 52.50 being the likely beginning point.
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7: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=63 HI=80 LO=58 CL=69

I bought 1564 and exited at 1576 for $120. In retrospect I should have had 1580 in the plan as well. There wasn't much here today but a coupel of sells off 1580 would have definitely enhanced the take.

1520, 60 and 80 for tomorrow. Be real tight on the management when buying the break above 1560 because of the proximity of 1580. You might want to wait for the break above 1580. Buying a 1560 break would definitely be described as an aggressive trade.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.36 HI=2.36 1/2 LO=2.28 1/2 CL=2.29 1/2

I sold 2.34 3/4. I held it but got stopped right after night trading started at 2.30 1/4 for 4 1/2 cents, $225.

I'll sell a failed retest of 2.32, 2.35 or a break of 2.27 1/2 tomorrow. I'll buy a break above 2.32 1/2.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.40 HI=3.42 LO=3.35 CL=3.36

I sold 3.39 1/2 and exited at 3.37 3/4. Sold 3.39 1/4 and dumped it at 3.36 near end of day. I thought long and hard about keeping this open overnight. When it touched support at 3.35 and bounced I was gone as fast as I could peddle. Total of 5 1/2 cents, $275.

#.35 and 3.40 for tomorrow either way.