Thursday, June 23, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday, June 22, 2005

==================================================
Erich's Update for Wednesday, June 22, 2005
==================================================
Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades!

Hot off the commodity presses to you. (Well, if you're a Subscriber, anyway) TestDrivers get these after the fact so they can track the trades, Subscribers get theirs the evening before the market opens.

To get yours hot off the press, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Need another reason? Check this out: http://www.supportandresistance.com/VIPsubscribe.html
This service is FREE to Subscribers!

"Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that but the really great make you feel that you too can be great." - Mark Twain
==================================================
1: JULY CORN
==================================================
CN5 O=2 1/2 HI=5 LO=1 1/2 CL=2 1/4

A little bit of a reaction today to yesterday's very aggressive move. Corn continued to test the 232 support area but failed to break it. I would like to see either a continued testing of 232's support, or a quick dip to the 227 1/2 area before recovering. Nothing new tomorrow.
==================================================
2: DECEMBER COTTON
==================================================
CTZ5 O=70 HI=39 LO=65 CL=03

Cotton came up a bit short of the 5350 resistance we had our eye one, but the smallish day would suggest a bit of indecision on the market's part.

The market is in a bit of a "no-man's land" so it might be a few days before we get a tradeable setup...however I wouldn't mind seeing prices fall off a bit tomorrow.
==================================================
3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
==================================================
Bean Oil looked very bearish today which would suggest we will see lower prices beginning tomorrow. While I normally don't do a countertrend trade, the option is there to try and pick up a few bucks before we run into the 2450 support, where I think the market might recover.

I'll just be watching tomorrow.
==================================================
4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
==================================================
LCQ5 O=10 HI=32 LO=60 CL=72

Hmmm, cattle failed to trade higher today and actually traded within yesterday's range. I'd really like to see the market trade a little higher and either test the 8140 or 8160 resistance before falling off again.

I'll pass on this market tomorrow, but if we see a moderately lower session I might look to sell by Thursday.
==================================================
5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
==================================================
CCU5 O=38 HI=46 LO=28 CL=45

Cocoa continues to bounce between support at 1530 and resistance at 1550. Not too much changed for the market today, except that RSI dipped slightly lower. I still like the parameters for our trade and will run the same one tomorrow.

*BUY September Cocoa at 1566
*Stop 1543
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $230 per contract
*Profit Target: 1648
*Approximate Profit Potential: $820 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
==================================================
6: JULY WHEAT
==================================================
WN5 O=34 HI=45 1/2 LO=34 CL=35

Wheat rallied one more time into the resistance zone easily allowing us to capture profits. The market actually gapped a bit, so some of you would have gotten a bit of a bonus when prices gapped to 343!

Either way it was a good day, with at least $800 in profits per contract.

Take the day off tomorrow until we see what's happening.
==================================================
7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
==================================================
CDU5 O=96 HI=54 LO=96 CL=38

Relatively strong day in the CD today as the market continued to battle the 8150 resistance area. I'm not convinced that rates are ready to resume however and will just watch this market tomorrow.

I think we're still due for some support testing.
==================================================
8: JULY SILVER
==================================================
SIN5 O=0 H=1 L=q7 CL=9.2

Day's like today make me wonder why I even bother with silver! The market made a nice run to the downside only to snap back like a rubber band!

Nothing to do but wait it out again tomorrow and hope that prices continue lower...but I'm not holding my breath.
==================================================
9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
==================================================
EDH6 O=.95 HI=.995 LO=.945 CL=.98

Not much new to report for the ED today as rates continue to channel. We could look to buy the market above the top of the resistance; however I think I'll stick with the short for now.

A higher session tomorrow will get me serious about buying the day after.

*SELL March Eurodollar at 95.915
*Stop 95.965
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.685
*Approximate Profit Potential: $575 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
==================================================
10: WILD CARD
==================================================
No wild card market - yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected] ========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, June 22, 2005
========================================================
=======================================================
1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDU5 O=6-13 HI=7-10 LO=6-12 CL=7-08

We began the day buying 116-19. We rolled to B/E at 116-25. As we poked above 117-00 I rolled the stop to -31 and got hit there for 12 ticks, $375. I then bought 117-03 and was stopped at B/E. Next in line I bought 117-02 rolled to B/E at -05. When we hit 117-10 I rolled to -07 and was stopped there for plus 5, $156. We were into the final hour ... all done.

The close today was 117-08. I'll lay off trading the quarter point at -08 and wait for either -00 or -16 to provide the impetus for a trade. I will NOT buy a break above 117-16.
========================================================
2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDU5 O=.180 HI=.205 LO=.180 CL=.190

I am again long from 96.195 with the stop at 96.185. Essentially my attitude is "do as I ask or I leave".
========================================================
3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDU5 O=96 HI=54 LO=96 CL=38

This is a nasty little market of late. It opened right below our target and then lept 12 points and kept climbing to 8121 making an entry impossible. It pulled back to 8109. I thought about buying it but before I could get clear we were back at 15/16. I threw in the towel. I had a feeling I was looking to pound square pegs and nothing but round holes in sight.

I'll play it off 8160 and/or 8100 tomorrow either way.
========================================================
4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTM5 O=5.20 HI=8.00 LO=4.90 CL=6.20

I sold 646.50 and exited at 642.20 on the theory that once broken I did not want to be short above 642. We pocketed $430. It needed to get just a bit lower for me to bite on the buy ... had to let it go. I sold 645.50 once more and bailed at 644.40 for $110. I then sold 645.70. We ran out of mo at 644 so I exited at 644.20 for another $150. I sold 645.40 and exited at 642.80 for $260.

The full array of TT numbers for tomorrow, plus I'll add 642 and make it a range coupled with 641.50 and we add 645 to the mix as well.
========================================================
5: AUGUST GOLD
========================================================
GCQ5 O=7.80 HI=0.90 LO=6.50 CL=0.50

A big gap down at the open yanked the trading rug from under us. It turned around and climbed right back up above 440.

$10 channel and 442 for tomorrow.
========================================================
6: JULY/DEC COTTON
========================================================
CTN5 O=.30 HI=.00 LO=.00 CL=.73
CTZ5 O=.70 HI=.39 LO=.65 CL=.03

I bought 48.60 and bailed at 48.90 for $150.

The OI and Volume has crossed, FND in the July is Friday. I'll move to December contract tomorrow. We settled at 53.03 today. 53.00 is a big S&R area. I'll trade off there tomorrow selling a break below 53.00 with a stop at 53.07 and a B/E roll at 52.90. I'll also buy a move lower that fails and heads back north. The stop is 52.97 and we'll be hopeful of a fill not worse than 53.05. Roll the buy to B/E at 53.10. Target for the buy is 56.00 and 50.50 for the sell.

The stops and rolls are a littel tight even for me. I will do this accompanying a roll to a new month contract. I wouldn't argue anyone widening them bu 10-15 points if that makes you more comfortable.
========================================================
7: SEPTEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COU5 O=38 HI=46 LO=28 CL=45

Nothing here for us today. I'll play 1560 again as well as 1520 for tomorrow.
========================================================
8: JULY CORN
========================================================
CN5 O=2.32 1/2 HI=2.35 LO=2.31 1/2 CL=2.32 1/4

Gap lower on the open, climbed from there back to 2.35 ... sound familiar? I sold 2.34 1/2 I held on to the final 10 minutes on the fence to hold or no. We got a little week in there so I decided to hold on. I moved the stop to 2.35 1/4 for the night session. We'll see what gives. Didn't take too long, I'm out at 2.35 1/4 for a small loss.

I'll go from 2.35 on a retest and failure tomorrow.
========================================================
9: MAY WHEAT
========================================================
WN5 O=3.34 HI=3.45 1/2 LO=3.34 CL=3.35

A gap lower and then a big climb and a late day big failure all added up to nothing done for us. That was a wicked end of the day. I'll take a shot either way off 3.35 tomorrow. Stops and rolls for both Corn and Wheat are a penny and a quarter. THIS IS DANGEROUS TERRITORY. Smaller accounts should be sitting on their hands right now.

We are back up near 3.40 overnight so we'll probably not get a whack at 3.35. I'll sell a failure at 3.40 or 3.45/.46 as well.