Wednesday, June 22, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Tuesday June 21, 2005

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Erich's Update for Tuesday, June 21, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades!

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"Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that but the really great make you feel that you too can be great." - Mark Twain
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=3 3/4 HI=6 1/4 LO=1 3/4 CL=5 1/2

Corn took off like a rocket today with the market gapping the 232 resistance. Prices are clearly destined to head higher, but the same problem remains - where to enter.

On hold for tomorrow, until we see prices show us some resistance.
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=95 HI=95 LO=75 CL=49

Cotton shied away from support today as prices made a strong rally instead. Our short order was never filled, but that's okay. Thanks to support and resistance we didn't get into a potentially bad trade.

Not quite sure what to make of this market for tomorrow but I would expect to see resistance at 5450, then we'll decide.
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=45 HI=53 LO=96 CL=10

Bean Oil ran away from us today as prices shot higher. The session had a bearish flavor to it with prices closing low, but there is no denying the upward momentum of the market.

If we get a hesitation here tomorrow we'll be in better shape to buy again. This market is due for a bit of an "adjustment".
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=60 HI=55 LO=60 CL=25

Cattle pulled slightly higher today - as we expected. I'll be watching the 8150 - 8160 line with great interest as this is where I expect prices to find resistance before reversing.

This could be a good trade this week. Keep an eye on it!
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=50 HI=55 LO=30 CL=31

Cocoa is building a bit of resistance in the 1555 area as prices declined a bit today. That's okay though, and I would welcome prices falling off a bit more so that we might buy it at a better price. I'll run the weekend trade tomorrow, but I wouldn't expect a fill.

*BUY September Cocoa at 1566
*Stop 1543
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $230 per contract
*Profit Target: 1648
*Approximate Profit Potential: $820 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=35 HI=39 1/2 LO=22 1/2 CL=39

Big day for wheat as prices came up just a tick short of our first profit target! We're up against significant resistance, and while I don't think it will hold the market back for the long term, a short term pause/bounce is a definite possibility.

If you want to take profits here, use a limit order on today's high, otherwise consider placing a trailing stop below the low. Next stop - 349.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=39 HI=45 LO=17 CL=19

A slight pause in the CD and a hook in RSI makes me think we'll see lower rates follow tomorrow. I'd love to see a test of the 8060 support line, as I would get very aggressive about buying from here. Nothing tomorrow however.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=3 HI=8 LO=6.5 CL=0.2

I'm really beginning to dislike trading silver. Notice today's range - yuck! If you were long the market from last week you would have been stopped out at/near breakeven as prices made a quickie decline.

If you took today's short you could have been filled around the 726.5 low as prices bounced a bit higher.

The only good thing is that the market continues to look bearish. Can't move the stops just yet, I'm afraid, but maybe tomorrow's session will give us a little more elbow room.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.98 HI=.98 LO=.935 CL=.96

Same old song and dance from the ED today as prices continued to range between support and resistance. If you took the trade from last week then you're still short this market; otherwise run the weekend trade again tomorrow.

*SELL March Eurodollar at 95.915
*Stop 95.965
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.685
*Approximate Profit Potential: $575 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, June 21, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-27 HI=6-28 LO=5-30 CL=6-16

Nice way to start out the week. That was by a far the weekest open I have seen in Bonds in months. I sold 116-27. We would find out later we were 1 tick off the high of the day. I closed the trade at 116-07 for 20 ticks, $625. We then bought 116-03 and exited at 116-14 for another 11 ticks, $343. We followed this up with a sell at -13 stopped at B/E. We were then done for the day with $968.

The close at 116-16 puts us right on the line. We'll need to see movement. Either lower, a failure and then we'll buy as it heads north above -19 or higher, a failure and we'll sell as it then heads south below -16. If we break higher in the morning we'll be watching 117-00. I'll buy or sell off of that level. We have a lot of resistance at 116-26. I t might be a nice move to sell a break off -24 off a failure at -26.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.200 HI=.200 LO=.185 CL=.190

I'm out at 96.185 for a loss of $25. I'm back ready for the buy at 96.195 or the sell at 96.170.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=39 HI=45 LO=17 CL=19

The gap lower jumped over us. It did soon return to 8145 and failed twice. I thought that was a good enough whisper to pay attention to. I sold 8142. Lot of good it did. I got caught on the roll at 8120. Stopped pout at 8129 for $130.

I'll play it off 8100 tomorrow either way.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=5.00 HI=6.70 LO=2.00 CL=3.80

We were sitting on 643 when the window opened to us. I began the day with a sell at 645.70 and was booted at 643.80 for $190. I sold 645.70 twice and lost a total of $40. I tried it one more time selling 646.00. I exited this one at 643.80 by choice as it was late in the daywith $220. That gives us $370 on the day, net.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=4.10 HI=8.50 LO=3.70 CL=7.90

It sure looked good for a while:) I sold 440.00 and was stopped at 440.10 for a $10 loss. I tried it again selling one at 439.80 and getting stopped at 440.00 for a loss of $20.

$10 channel again tomorrow and 442 with a twist. I will sell on the failure at 442 without waiting for 440 to break. Had I done that today, I would have conceivacly made a couple hundred.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.80 HI=.55 LO=.50 CL=.16

I bought 47.60; stopped at 47.80. I bought 47.60 again. This one was stopped out at 48.35 for a total of 95 points, $475. I'll play 48.50 either way tomorrow. Keep a comfortable RRR going at all times.
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7: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=50 HI=55 LO=30 CL=31

I missed the first relatively close retest of 1560 but got the second one. I sold 1552 and bailed at 34 for $180. I'll play 1560 again as well as 1520 for tomorrow.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.33 3/4 HI=2.36 1/4 LO=2.31 3/4 CL=2.35 1/2

Big gap up at the open as we suspected might be the case. A failure at or near 2.35 gets sold tomorrow. Nothing else I can do.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.35 HI=3.39 1/2 LO=3.32 1/2 CL=3.39

Big opening gap fueled by fund short covering left us with nothing to do. Tomorrow, look for more strength as the funds will be hardpressed not to continue covering shorts. If we see a failure at 3.35 I'll sell it but don't hold your breath.