Monday, June 20, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday June 16, 2005

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Erich's Update for Friday, June 17, 2005
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=7 1/2 HI=7 1/2 LO=3 CL=5 3/4

Corn's still fighting the 227 resistance line today as well as holding up the 223 support. If this weren't Friday I would look at buying above the resistance; however I think I'll hold off and see if we can't put together a position on Monday. ==================================================
2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=15 HI=85 LO=55 CL=64

Cotton acted like only cotton could today as prices rallied through resistance stopping us out for a loss before prices fell off through support again. We had the right idea about this market, unfortunately the range was too much for us.

Nothing new here tomorrow.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=45 HI=53 LO=96 CL=10

Bean Oil reacted off the 2450 resistance today and looks like it might want to trade lower tomorrow. RSI is hooking as well, which would suggest lower prices are in order.

I think I'll hold off until prices find support before looking to buy again. I'm thinking 2340 is a likely support area. Nothing tomorrow.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=20 HI=77 LO=40 CL=42

Well, once more cattle ran away from us a prices broke support today. Friday is the release of the cattle on feed report, so we're probably seeing a few traders trying to jockey for position early.

I'm standing aside until I see what the report does for the market.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=45 HI=49 LO=16 CL=41

Cocoa reacted early and traded lower today. Expect prices to continue lower tomorrow and look for support at 1480 and a test of the RSI trendline as a possible spot to buy the market again.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=24 HI=28 1/2 LO=22 CL=23 1/2

I can't say I'm too impressed with how wheat traded today. After a couple of reasonably strong sessions the market just when flat. Today's close isn't all that encouraging for tomorrow either.

I'm bringing exit stops to just below today's low to keep risk to an absolute minimum. First profit target is resistance at 339 3/4.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=06 H=16 LO=66 CL=04

Big range in the CD today, but rates didn't really go anywhere. The market closed slightly higher than yesterday but that's about it.

Nothing I can see to do here tomorrow.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=3 HI=4.5 LO=2 CL=7

Caught a break in silver today as support held and prices traded a little higher. If you haven't done so already you'll want to bring your exit stops in to breakeven (or pretty darn close).

First target is resistance at 759.5.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.96 HI=.995 LO=.925 CL=.985

The ED retested support and resistance today. Prices are still working on the 9593 support area without a significant breakthrough.

RSI is showing us a testpoint, so we could see a bounce tomorrow. At the very least I'd like to be able to bring stops to breakeven.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, June 17, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-07 HI=6-14 LO=5-26 CL=6-08

I was beginning to think I was going to get skunked today. Thought about buying just after the open ... didn't go low enough. Thought about selling didn't get high enough. Both by like 1 or 2 ticks shy. I bought 116-04 and stopped out at -19 for 15 ticks, $468. I pushed the 1 hour rule but bought 116-20 and bailed at -26 for 6 more, $187. $655 for the day.

The close at 116-26 puts the crosshairs on 116-16 and 117-00 for tomorrow. ========================================================
2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.195 HI=.205 LO=.180 CL=.200

I bought 1 at 96.195 today. My stop is at 96.185. The target is .320. I'll take it to B/E at .220. I am not overly enthused about this position so I will rule it with an iron hand.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=06 HI=16 LO=66 CL=04

I sold one at 8093 and was stopped at B/E. Sold again at 8096. 8070 was a good place to start squeezing 8060 so I brought my stop to 8071, we touched 8066 and jumped right to 8071 to stop me out. From there we moved all the way back to 8100+ by the end of day. WEe took $250 from 'em.

Guess what? We get to do it all over again at the same numbers for tomorrow. ========================================================
4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=9.20 HI=6.40 LO=8.20 CL=5.30

I opened the day with a sell at 639.70. We made it down to 638.20 and bounced right back. I bailed at 639.20 for $50. I bought 640.40 and escaped at 640.00 for a $40 loss. I then bought 640.40 a second time. I bailed at on this one at 643.40 for $300. It never gave me a shot at 640 the rest of the day.

641.50, 646 and 653/54 get added to the mix.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=4.10 HI=8.50 LO=3.70 CL=7.90

They gapped past us again. Very frustrating.

$10 channel again tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.15 HI=.85 LO=.55 CL=.64

I tried to buy it twice on breaks above 47.50 and to sell it once on a break south of 47.50. I couldn't get anything executed and walked away shaking my head. I'm on 47.50, 47.00 and 46.50 for tomorrow. Either way off all 3 of 'em. ========================================================
7: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=45 HI=49 LO=16 CL=41

I bought 1524 and bailed at 1540 for $260. 1520 or 1580 for tomorrow. PLay 'em either way.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.24 1/2 HI=2.26 3/4 LO=2.22 1/4 CL=2.24 1/4

I bought 2.25 1/2 and was stopped out at 2.24 1/4 for a $62 loss. We danced around both sides of 2.25 for the rest of the day. I'll make another attempt at 2.25 tomorrow.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.24 HI=3.28 1/2 LO=3.22 CL=3.23 1/2

I bought 3.23 and out at 3.27 for 4 cents. I thought we had something until that last collapse.

I'm back on 3.22 1/2 again tomorrow.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Thursday June 16, 2005

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Erich's Update for Thursday, June 16, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades!
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=4 1/2 HI=6 3/4 LO=2 1/4 CL=4 1/4

Big day for corn as prices opened with a huge gap, ran up to the 277 resistance and then backed off again by closing. The gap is encouraging for prices heading higher as it shows momentum; however the indecisive day is discouraging as the market might try and recover part of today's range.

Sitting this one out tomorrow.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=70 HI=75 LO=00 CL=07

What a wild day in the cotton market! Things don't look so crazy on the surface, but a peak at an intraday chart will show prices moving around like a rollercoaster.

Notice the low of the day? Yep, the 4700 support that we were toying with yesterday. We got filled closer to our 4719 target, but prices were moving pretty fast so you probably took some slippage.

As much as I would love to move the stops up a bit, I'm afraid that we'll make things a little too tight. We've got them above solid resistance now, and if cotton backs up on us, we'll know it's time to leave.

First target is support at 4551.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=50 HI=29 LO=48 CL=17

Too bad "close" didn't count in trading as well as horseshoes and hand gernades. We had this market pegged pretty well; however prices gapped our entry on the open and voided our trade. Would have been a nice move to catch, but now we've got to wait on the sidelines for the next opportunity.

Nothing tomorrow.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=10 HI=40 LO=92 CL=20

Small day for cattle but prices did manage to get a little lowe still and bury themselves well into the 8000 support area. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow, but I'd almost bet you dollars to donuts we'll see a higher session.

Remember the cattle on feed report is due this Friday and it's likely to spur the market further, one way or the other.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=44 HI=62 LO=26 CL=60

The cocoa rocket continued higher today, which is not quite what we wanted. The market had less momentum than yesterday, but given the proximity to the 1600 resistance all we can do is watch and wait for now.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=20 HI=24 3/4 LO=18 1/2 CL=23

Got filled in our wheat long today as the market caught some momentum from the other grain markets. Unfortunately there's not too much to do with the stops right now so I'm going to leave them below the 317 line for the moment.

If you're desperate to move your stops you could bring them under today's low, but I don't think I'd go much tighter than that. First profit target is resistance at 339 3/4.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=29 HI=10 LO=24 CL=01

Not fair! Not fair! We had this market pegged today but again the big opening gap voided our trade. Too bad too as the market found our profit target in a single session.

Sitting this one out tomorrow and waiting for the next signal to buy.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=8 HI=0 LO=7 CL=3

We got filled shortly after today's open in silver as prices spiked higher to the 740 area before retreating. We're currently long from 732.5 and I'd like to bring in the stops a bit.

Of course if you can afford the risk the best place is still the 727 line, otherwise bring them up, just under the 730 intraday support.

First target is resistance at 759.5.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=6.00 HI=.01 LO=.93 CL=.94

Got filled in our Eurodollar short today as rates dipped below the 95.95 support from this week. RSI is hooking however the hook is a bit premature which doesn't fill me with a lot of confidence for tomorrow, but we'll see.

Exit stops should stay where they are, or you can bring them just above the 9597 line if you wanted to tighten them a bit.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
========================================================
"TOMS TRADES" for Thursday, June 16, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-07 HI=6-14 LO=5-26 CL=6-08

I missed the first big run south and then did one B/E trade on a buy at 116-03. Not a very productive day. The close at 116-08 has us on the same numbers for tomorrow ... 116-00 and 116-16.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.205 HI=.215 LO=.170 CL=.185

The triple bottom structure alters my preferred play just slightly. We now have an S&R range to deal with bounded by 96.170 and 96.195. I will buy a break above 96.195 or sell a break below 96.170. Yopu can use the reciprocal as the stop if you choose to but I will place 1.5 points back of the fill.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=29 HI=10 LO=24 CL=01

Leap frogged over us with a gap up on the open. This is never fun being on the right numbers and winding up with nothing to show for it. It happens, especially in the currencies with the impact of the night trading. You either learn to live with it or you stay up all night trading. Not a very appealing scenario. We talked about this market in depth in the webinar tonight. We'll play either way off 8100 tomorrow.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=7.20 HI=0.00 LO=1.40 CL=9.40

It's almost embarassing when it works like this. We sold 639.70 to open our trading day after adding 640 as a player in last night's update. Take note of the high for the day. I closed it out at 631.70 for $800. I should've turned right around and bought one right there but didn't ... not quite close enough to 630 to be convincing. I couldv'e bought one on the 637 break and probably made another $200. It was late in the session and I was hurting so I packed it in.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=9.80 HI=1.80 LO=9.10 CL=0.90

Nothing for us today as the entire day was spent in indecision ... are we 420-430 or 430-440.

$10 channel again tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.70 HI=.75 LO=.00 CL=.07

I had 2 B/E sells at 47.45 and on the third one we got something to work with. I exited at 47.15 for 30 points, $150.

We'll play off 47.00 and 47.50 again tomorrow.
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7: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=44 HI=62 LO=26 CL=60

The gap up open took us beyond our planned entry at 1520. The later pullback to 1526 might have been a buy but I was looking at other stuff and it rose before I could get to it. You might have made a couple of hundred if you took it.

I'll buy a break above 1580- or sell a failed test there.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.24 1/2 HI=2.26 3/4 LO=2.22 1/4 CL=2.24 1/4

I took the profit at 2.25 for 7 1/2 cents, $375. For tomorrow I'll trade off 2.25 either buying a break above or selling on a failed retest
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.20 HI=3.24 3/4 LO=3.18 1/2 CL=3.23

I bought 3.19 1/2 after it gapped up at the open and temporarily left us in the dust. I exited at 3.24 1/4 for 4 3/4 cents, $275.

We'll play 3.22 1/2 tomorrow, buying a failed retest that turns back higher or selling a break below.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday June 15, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, June 15, 2005
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"If you're not prepared to lose a little in trading, then you'll probably never make a lot." - Erich Senft
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=4 HI=9 1/4 LO=3 1/4 CL=9

Corn traded higher today breaking the 217 resistance rather decisively. The market is now officially in an uptrend so we can look at buying again. I know I said I'd probably buy the market on Wednesday; however I'm just a little concerned about the 220 1/4 resistance above the market.

Think I'll hold off one more day. It's easier to enter off a pause or bounce anyway.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=50 HI=75 LO=25 CL=60

Did you notice cotton prices stall out today? The market retested support and resistance without going anywhere. RSI is at a testpoint and as such I'll look to sell tomorrow on a break of 4725.

If you wanted to be a little more cautious wait until the market breaks 4700 before selling, and then use the 4715-20 area to cover the trade.

*SELL July Cotton at 4719
*Stop 4766
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $235 per contract
*Profit Target: 4551
*Approximate Profit Potential: $840 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=97 HI=28 LO=95 CL=25

A small bullish day for bean oil saw the market continue to hold the 2300 support area. From here the market rallied to the 2330 line before calling it a day. I'll run the same trades for tomorrow again; however I don't expect the short side to fill.

*BUY July Bean Oil at 2343
*Stop 2309
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $204 per contract
*Profit Target: 2498
*Approximate Profit Potential: $930 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

OR

*SELL July Bean Oil at 2257
*Stop 2277
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $120 per contract
*Profit Target: 2163
*Approximate Profit Potential: $564 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=50 HI=15 LO=50 CL=67

No big surprise here today as the market held support after yesterday's big gap. No doubt there are more than a few trader's second guessing their positions, especially with a Cattle on Feed report due Friday.

I am still looking to sell, but I'm not certain that tomorrow will be the right time. In fact I'd love to see the market continue to battle it out over the next few days so we get a good understanding of exactly where support and resistance are.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=39 HI=05 LO=37 CL=02

Cocoa did trade higher today, which would have gotten us long tomorrow; however today's range was the largest this market has seen in several weeks (or months) and as such I'm not sure what to expect tomorrow.

I can tell you I would like to see a smaller day, from where I would buy the market the day after; however it is possible that prices will continue their strong rally ...but I hope not.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=11 1/2 HI=17 1/4 LO=10 1/2 CL=16

If you ever wondered why I watch the market open, today's wheat market will tell you why. The market opened abnormally low, voiding our sell order, before trading higher for the rest of the day. Fortunately we had no part of it as it would have resulted in a whipsaw.

It seems as though wheat is finding support and catching some of the momentum from the other grains. The market is still in a downtrend so I'll reserve my buy until we get above the 320 resistance. RSI is also making it's third bounce off the trendline, so we'll see how it holds.

*BUY July Wheat at 322 1/4
*Stop 316 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 339 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $875 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=75 HI=06 LO=60 CL=01

We're back in familiar territory with the CD today as rates traded back to the 8000 resistance area. Support was firm as the market rallied to test the RSI trendline.

We could look to buy the market long above the resistance on the high, but quite honestly I'm not sure which direction this market is taking for the near term...and we might still be in a transition.

*BUY September Canadian Dollar at 8012
*Stop 7989
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $230 per contract
*Profit Target: 8099 *Approximate Profit Potential: $870 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=7 HI=1.5 LO=4 CL=8

Isn't that just like silver to call my bluff and give us a small range today? Okay, we've got yet another hit on resistance and the market seems to be rejecting going lower, so we'll look at buying above the resistance area if we get a breakout.

*BUY July Silver at 732.5
*Stop 727.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 759.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1350 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH (hey, it's silver)
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.985 HI=.02 LO=.965 CL=.97

The Eurodollar pulled a little higher today and is looking a little more promising for a sell; however I would like to see one more higher day before rates begin to fall off again.

Regardless I'll place a sell order to short the market tomorrow and have adjusted the numbers to reflect the recent support.

*SELL March (06) Eurodollar at 95.94
*Stop 96.005
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $162 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.685
*Approximate Profit Potential: $637 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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"TOMS TRADES" for Wednesday, June 15, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-24 HI=7-03 LO=6-02 CL=6-04

Nice day. We sold 116-28, enjoyed a very comfortable ride down to -15 and out at -17 for 11 ticks,$343. Sold -14 and was stopped out at B/E. Sold -15 and out at -07 for another 8 ticks, $250. Sold at -07 and out at -03 for $125. That was good for the day ... and the soul. $718 on the day. Yee Haw!!

We closed the day at 116-04. I'll be watching 116-00 and 116-16 tomorrow. Buys on tests of 116-00 that fail are good to go as are breaks above 116-16. That does NOT mean it is OK to buy a break above 117-00. I counted at least 6 -8 buys that would have been troublesome at the least had we not had the "no Buy" zone in effect. Stow THAT away for future reference.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.205 HI=.230 LO=.190 CL=.195

Just look at that triple bottom. Check out my post at the forum titled "Contest Time". Once again our numbers kept us out of the trade. We now have very convincing structure to deal with. Stay on the TT numbers.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=75 HI=06 LO=60 CL=01

Judging it close enough, I bought 7963 and exited at 7999 for $360. It's been awile since we took decent money from these guys. I am cautiously celebratory.

Today's close at 8001 re-enforces the big, fat round nuber to a point I can't ignore it. I will trade it both either way tomorrow. I need to see lower, a failure, a turn and I'll go as it breaks above 8006 with a stop at 7997. We'll go right after selling a break lower with a stop at 8007.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=2.10 HI=7.50 LO=9.70 CL=7.30

When the trading window swung open we were in process of a significant fall. As I watched I thought, "what's most likely?" The answer was easy 630.00. Sure enough it got to 629.80, bounced, next candle opened at 630.30, fell to 629.70 and snapped back. I bought at 630.30. I exited at 633.60 for $330. We never got another shot as the market was strongly above any number we discussed.

The full array of September numbers for tomorrow PLUS 2 new members. 637 and 640 are now players a swell. Yes, You are correct, I pulled them from the weekly chart. The choice was don't trade or use 'em. The Stock Market requires different rules.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=9.20 HI=0.20 LO=8.40 CL=9.30

A little gap down ... hangover from the previous night session. Moved up in a nice confirmation set up and headed lower. I sold 428.60 and WHAM! Reversal time. I really messed up. I had several chances to get out under 429 and didn't take them despite all kinds of green warning signs. It traied to fail several times at 429. I should have bailed and waited for another run to sell 428.60-40 again. Of course it never did that so I wouldn't have gotten in any further trades but I would have been out with at worst a $60 loss ... maybe less. I chose instead to ignore the whispers in my ear from the market and stubbornly hung on expecting it the hold at 429 and head lower again. Of course it didn't, it broke higher in one big candle. I'm out at 429.50. Not a big deal, a loss of 90 bucks. What's upsetting is a very poor management job, in my opinion. Learn from my lesson. It might keep you safe from a much bigger loss. Words of wisdom ... the market knows more than you do or I do. Trust it when it takes the time and effort to whisper in your ear.

$10 channel again tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.50 HI=.75 LO=.25 CL=.60

I tried 3 times to get a trade off. 2 buys and a sell. I couldn't get any of them filled. I walked away in disgust. Same 47.00 and 47.50 triggers tomorrow. May the force be with us.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=39 HI=05 LO=37 CL=02

DANG!! An abject lesson in timing is everything. I pick the day to roll when the market launces from one of the most obvious numbers on the chart. Nice, Tom. Not only does it launch from the obvious but it goes right to the obvious target as well. Ok, enough whining. I will sell a break back below 1500 with a stop at 1507. I will not buy until a break above 1520.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.14 HI=2.19 1/2 LO=2.13 1/4 CL=2.19

I sold 2.16 3/4 and was stopped out at B/E ... TWICE! I bought at 2.17 1/2 and held it. The stop is now B/E working thru the night. My target is 2.25 but there is a whole lotta' resistance above ... 2.19, 2.20, 2.21, 2.22 1/2, 2.24 1/2 and then 2.25. I just looked at the night prices a bit ago. We are at 2.19 1/2 so I moved the stop to 2.18 3/4 to cinch things up a tad. We'll see what tomorrow brings. I also have a limit sell working at 2.24 3/4 just in case we get crazy.

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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.11 1/2 HI=3.17 1/4 LO=3.10 1/2 CL=3.16

Bought 3.13 1/4 and got stopped at 3.13 for a 1/4 loss. Bought 3.13 1/4. When we went to 3.17 I rolled my stop to 3.16 3/4 and got stopped out at 3.16 1/4 for 3 cents, $150.

Tomorrow it's 3.13 or I'll sell a retest of 3.19 that fails or buy a break above 3.19.