Monday, June 13, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday June 10, 2005

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Erich's Update for Friday June 10, 2005
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Hot off the commodity presses to you! Well, if you're a Subscriber, anyway. The Test Drive version is sent after the fact.
To get yours hot off the presses go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=3 1/2 HI=6 3/4 LO=3 CL=5 1/2

Got a bit of a bounce in corn today, just above the WASDE report due out tomorrow. No real surprise here as the market was likely to adjust a bit as traders jockey for an early position in the market.

Report days are tricky and you certainly don't need to take a position tomorrow; however if you were inclined you could bracket support and resistance and let the breakout tell you which side to trade.

*BUY July Corn at 218 1/4
*Stop 215 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 232 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $725 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

OR

*SELL July Corn at 212 3/4
*Stop 215 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 205 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $375 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=35 HI=65 LO=10 CL=29

Cotton stopped us out on the open as the market briefly broke yesterday's high before falling off again. We walked with a little over $300 profit per contract which is nothing to get too excited about, but still beats a kick in the head with a frozen boot.

Cotton does look like it wants to continue lower tomorrow but I think I'll pass on this Friday trade and try to pick it up next week.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=68 HI=25 LO=62 CL=13

Bean Oil found support in a hurry today as the market opened with a big gap to the downside and faded the rest of the day. I'll look to run the weekend trade tomorrow, but the parameters are a little tight, so I'll adjust them to meet the 2040 resistance.

I'm going to concentrate on the buy tomorrow and will leave the sell side of the trade if prices reverse tomorrow.

*BUY July Bean Oil at 2343
*Stop 2309
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $198 per contract
*Profit Target: 2498
*Approximate Profit Potential: $930 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=15 HI=40 LO=02 CL=12

Cattle wasted no time getting to the 8200 support line today as prices plummeted lower. In hindsight it could have been a nice little trade; however the problem was finding a suitable exit stop to make things worthwhile.

Hoping for a bounce/stall at 8200 which will let us get short this market next week.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=21 HI=48 LO=10 CL=21

Cocoa made another unsuccessful stab at the 1450 resistance today. Prices didn't do too much on the whole as the market closed where it began. RSI is suggesting that we could see lower prices and another testing of the 1400 support line. Standing aside for tomorrow.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=13 3/4 HI=17 LO=12 1/2 CL=14 1/4

Wheat came just a couple of ticks shy of our revised 311 target and hit our exit stop today, taking us out of the trade with a little over $200 profit per contract.

We're trading off strong support and resistance right now and will bracket them both to trade the breakout from tomorrow's WASDE report, but I'm favouring the long side.

*BUY July Wheat at 320 1/4
*Stop 316 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 335 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $775 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

OR

*SELL July Wheat at 310 3/4
*Stop 314 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 295 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $775 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=91 HI=03 LO=66 CL=71

A bit of a surprise in the CD today as the market broke support at 7990 - 8000. I thought for sure we would see a bounce there, but it didn't happen that way. Think I'll stand aside for tomorrow.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=6 HI=6 LO=1 CL=7

Holey Moley, talk about a move from right out of left field! Silver prices tanked today which is not what we were expecting. I thought we would see the market show us some support which would give us a chance to buy, but now that plan goes right out the window!

Nothing happening here tomorrow for me.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.045 HI=.06 LO=.99 CL=.045

The ED had a very unpredictable session today, falling right through the 9604 support we had been eyeing. The market might find some support off the 9600 area, but I'm going to wait for confirmation before getting into anything.
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10: WILD CARD - SOYBEAN MEAL
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SMN5 O=9.3 HI=3.5 LO=9.1 CL=2.9

Bean Meal made a nice recovery off the 210 support today which is also the 38% retracement of the last uptrend. You'll also notice a considerable amount of congestion at the 213 resistance area which we can use for a buy entry tomorrow.

*BUY July Soybean Meal at 214.3
*Stop 211.8
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 222
*Approximate Profit Potential: $770 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, June 10, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=8-05 HI=8-15 LO=7-24 CL=8-08

Gap down open took us well past 118-16. I sold 1 at 117-29 and was stopped at -30 for loss of 1 tick. I then sold 118-13 and closed it out at 118-05 for 8 ticks, $250. That was it for the day.

The close at 118-08 was interesting. I'll let this level slide and wait for 118-00 or 118-16 to play. No buy policy still prevails.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.265 HI=.270 LO=.210 CL=.260

Big pop lower but it snapped right back. Still a watcher ... woooooooo.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 Oy74 HIy86 LOy50 CLy55

Same deal tomorrow ... Could it be any more obvious? We'll play either side of 8000. We'll sell a rise back above 8010 and/or sell a retest of 8000 that fails. Stops are 7997 on the buy and 8003 on the sell. Get it to B/E at 8015 or 7991.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=0.20 HI=7.20 LO=6.60 CL=6.50

Today was roll day. I traded June thru the day, today, but will roll to September for tomorrow as September becomes the front month in all the Indecies. That means we must develope a new slate of numbers to trade ... you'll find them below.

I bought 616.90 after the failure at 616.60 and boom ... what was THAT? We shot up to 620 like a rocket ... and promptly failed. I bailed at 619.30 for $270. We returned to 617.10. If it had dropped to 616 anything, I'd have bought it again. Sorry I didn't! I finally got back on the bus, buying 621.30. I thought it was an omen that having added 626 yesterday we went right to it ... and failed ... I jumped out at 625.40 for $410 selling 2 so that I was now short 1 from 625.40. I bailed out of this one at 624 even for another $140. I bought 626.40 and promptly got my posterior handed to me. Out at 625.50 for a $90 loss. Done for the day.

Ok, here's the dope on September. September has been operating in territory about 150-200 points higher than June. That isn't a lot and I suspect that most of the numbers we have been using for June trades will eventually reestablish themselves as the power points for September over time.

September is not nearly as rich in structure as was June so we want to take a step back, dial out a little of our aggressiveness until we richen up a bit. You following me?

Having said that, here are the actual numbers in descending order which I will trade either way upon the market's arrival or use as management "what's most likely"s: 628, 626/625 as a range, 621/620 as a range, 616.50, 614, 610, 607.50, 599.50/.00 as a range, 596 and 577. Keep the June numbers handy and don't hesitate to fold them in as warranted.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=5.60 HI=7.10 LO=3.00 CL=6.10

Nothing for us in Gold today. Frustrating, to say the least. Almost got down there low enough to allow a buy. Not quite good enough though.

$10 channel again tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.35 HI=.65 LO=.10 CL=.29

A gap up open sped us right by the 47.08 planned buy. I bought 47.10 on the pullback and was stopped at B/E. I then sold 46.95. Once we got down near yesterday's low at 46.20, I thought that was a pretty good place to watch for management help. Sure enough, it got to 46.21 and flipped around on us. I was stopped out at 46.50 on a 46.25 stop. We picked up 45 points, $225.

I'll replay the 47.00 trade tomorrow.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=21 HI=48 LO=10 CL=21

I sold 1438 and was stopped at 1445 losing $70. I resold at 1434 with a 39 stop. I thought the turn around at 1410 was pretty telling and managed to bail at 1418 for $160.

I'll go with 1440 again tomorrow.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.13 1/2 HI=2.16 3/4 LO=2.13 CL=2.15 1/2

I exited at 2.13 3/4 for an even 5 cents, $250. The support at 2.14/2.13 was formidable, I thought. Once we got hung up there it was pretty obvious we weren't going any lower ... a pretty good whisper from the market.

I'm on the sidelines tomorrow with the report due and the weekend in front of us.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.13 3/4 HI=3.17 LO=3.12 1/2 CL=3.14 1/4

I missed the first bounce higher and then bought 3.13 later in the session. I jumped out at 3.16 as the late session volatility kicked in and I wanted no part of it.

I'm an observer tomorrow due to the report and the weekend. Have a beauty y'all.
.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Thursday, June 9th 2005

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Market Update for Thursday, June 9, 2005
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Scroll down about midway in this post for TOM'S TRADES
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=7 3/4 HI=9 LO=4 3/4 CL=6

Corn continued lower today and broke the 217 support area briefly before bouncing back a bit. I know I said I would short corn if/when it got to 217, but with the 211 - 212 support so close I can't put together a good trade right now, so I might wait another day.

Big WASDE report due this Friday, so we'll be ready for the market then.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=80 HI=15 LO=20 CL=89

Another good session for cotton as prices continued lower but came up short of our first profit target. Today's bounce (ie. higher close) makes it look as though prices could have found support and will likely rally a bit in the days to come.

I'm bringing the exit stop in above today's high and will be out if prices break the 4720 area, otherwise the first target remains support at 4566.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=00 HI=20 LO=92 CL=98

Leave it up to bean oil to call my bluff as prices found support at 2292 today - right at the support area we were watching. I'm not going to get suckered into an early trade however as the WASDE report could turn things around in a hurry.

With a little luck we'll see prices continue to hover around the 2300 support for tomorrow allowing us to put together a good trade for Friday.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=32 HI=35 LO=80 CL=22

Got the confirmation of resistance today as prices fell off a bit; however the high closing price also suggests that the market isn't keen about going lower either.

We've got the same problem as yesterday however with all the support at 8200 possibly cutting the move to the downside short. I'll probably just watch this market tomorrow again.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=35 HI=51 LO=29 CL=31

If you had any doubts about which numbers were significant in the Cocoa market, today's range should have clarified things for you considerably. See how the market bounced between the 1430 and 1450 lines we were watching?

We could see cocoa continue lower again tomorrow, but I'll run the same long trade and see what happens.

*BUY July Cocoa at 1453
*Stop 1429
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 1549
*Approximate Profit Potential: $960 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=17 HI=19 LO=13 CL=13 1/4

Pretty easy day in wheat regardless of where you placed your exit stops as the market never really challenged them (at least not seriously). We're trading near some significant support right now at 311, so if you wanted you could use that as your profit target instead of the 303 line from the weekend.

The WASDE report due out Friday is likely to make for an indecisive session tomorrow.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=47 HI=63 LO=93 CL=11

Hello! The CD fell off today (as we partly expected) and is testing the support in the 7990 - 8000 area we have been watching. RSI is also at a testpoint and a higher session tomorrow will get me into buy mode.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=5.5 HI=3 LO=1 CL=7.5

Silver got close to testing the 740 support area, coming just one tick short. RSI is at a testpoint and I would expect higher prices tomorrow; however this is silver so I might wait it out one more day.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.13 HI=.135 LO=.08 CL=.09

The ED is acting a little better today as we're at least testing the 9610 support again. I'd still like to see a dip to 9604 - 05 before recovering, so I might give it another day to shape up.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
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RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, June 9, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=8-28 HI=8-29 LO=8-15 CL=8-16

Not much weakness to fuel our short biased stance. We did a little "pocket picking" though. I sold 118-27 and was stopped out at -23 for 4 ticks. I then sold 118-28 and exited purposely at -18 for 10 ticks.

The close at 118-16 has us focused right there or on selling 119-00. We looked very weak near end of day closing just a tick off the low of the day. It is conceivable we'll not get a chance to sell until 118-00 so be prepared for any of the 3 numbers to pop up in the crosshairs.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.305 HI=.305 LO=.280 CL=.290

I'm gonna watch a while
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=32 HI=45 LO=77 CL=95

Close but no hand grenade ... or something like that. A nice $500 move we had to sit and watch ... Grrrrr. For tomorrow? Could it be any more obvious? We'll play either side of 8000. We'll sell a rise back above 8010 and/or sell a retest of 8000 that fails. Stops are 7997 on the buy and 8003 on the sell. Get it to B/E at 8015 or 7991.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=4.00 HI=4.40 LO=9.20 CL=0.00

I bought 624.00 and out at 625.80 for $180. I then sold 622.70 and exited at 620.20 for $250. We were out of time by then. All the numbers in play tomorrow plus we add 626 to the party.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=7.40 HI=8.70 LO=6.40 CL=6.60

I sold 428.30 and out at 426.70 for $160. $10 channel again tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.80 HI=.15 LO=.20 CL=.89

Nothing for us today but we pulled right back up on our number near end of day. Let's keep the same numbers in play for tomorrow, shall we.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=35 HI=51 LO=29 CL=31

We just watched ... with interest. I'll roll with 1440 tomorrow either way. Stop at 1433 on the buy and 1443 on the sell.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.17 3/4 HI=2.19 LO=2.14 3/4 CL=2.16

A good sized gap down keeps traders working the worry beads intently. Not us scalpers, though. I sold 2.18 3/4. Had we made it to 2.14 I think I would have undoubtedly taken the profit and moved on. Of course they'd never make it that easy on us ... a lesson in and of itself ... pulling up at 2.14 3/4. Now, I had to make the really hard decision, hold or no. I am short overnight with a stop at 2.15 1/4 and headed for the open tomorrow.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.17 HI=3.19 LO=3.13 CL=3.13 1/4

Likewise a bit of a gap down on the open. I sold 3.18 1/4 towards the end of day setting up another really hard decision. Wheat is Wheat and Corn is Corn. I held the Corn, bought back the Wheat ...out at 3.13 3/4 for 4 1/2 cents, $225.

My decision was made infinitely easier as we closed at 3.13 1/4. That's just a hair above a beauty of a line at 3.13. We'll play that tomorrow. Buy a retest that fails to punch lower and sell an outright break of the number.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday June 8, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, June 8, 2005
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SUBSCRIBERS GOT THESE ON TUESDAY EVENING! The Test Drive version, however, is sent after the fact. To get yours hot of the presses before the markets open, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Scroll down midway in this post for Tom's Trades!
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=3 1/2 HI=3 1/2 LO=9 CL=0 1/4

Corn prices tanked today - no real surprise there. The market's still above the 20 day average so I'm not looking to sell just yet, but will get more serious as we get closer to the 217 support.

There's a WASDE report out this Friday so expect the market to get a little soft in the next couple of sessions.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=55 HI=65 LO=85 CL=94

Cotton continued lower today, although the market wasn't nearly as aggressive as yesterday. RSI shows the market extremely oversold, so we might expect prices to find support very soon.

As such you could bring your stops in tight to protect the $450 in profits we have right now. If you want to give the trade a little elbow room then you should move them at least to breakeven or above 4750.

First target is support at 4566.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=26 HI=50 LO=02 CL=06

Bean oil is flirting with the 2300 support line today but I'm not quite ready to sell just yet. We do have additional support at 2290 which is also a problem spot, so I want the market to get a little closer before we commit.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=60 HI=77 LO=17 CL=42

Cattle prices backed off a bit today and never challenged the 8450 resistance area we were watching. I'm tempted to sell this market tomorrow on a break of the 8317 support; however I think I'll wait for a confirmation of resistance before taking the plunge.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=27 HI=38 LO=17 CL=35

Well cocoa didn't head lower today, in fact the market rallied a bit, holding the old support at 1410-ish. Today's rally confirms the short term support and gives us a chance to buy the market long tomorrow above the 1445 - 1450 resistance.

*BUY July Cocoa at 1453
*Stop 1429
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 1549
*Approximate Profit Potential: $960 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=22 1/2 HI=23 1/4 LO=18 1/2 CL=19 1/4

Gto filled in the wheat short today as the market made a pretty good move to the downside. There is support just below the market at 317 - 318 which could prove to be a trouble spot, so tighten stops to above the 321 1/2 - 322 area if you want to take as much risk out of the trade as possible.

If you can afford the loss, then leave the stops where they are for one more day.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=57 HI=64 LO=10 CL=49

Big house cleaning day in the CD today as the market made a huge range without going anywhere. Today's session looks very bullish on the surface, but I'm not convinced that it's time to buy just yet. Watching and waiting tomorrow.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=4 HI=6.5 LO=2 CL=4.5

Silver fell off quite a bit today as the market broke recent support. I don't think the downside has a lot of potential and would look for prices to recover rather quickly.

I initially thought we'd see support at 731, but now I'm not sure we'll see much after 740. Doesn't matter though as we remain on the alert for a buy signal.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.165 HI=.165 LO=.115 CL=.145

Not quite what I was expecting from the ED today as the market gave us a little bounce. I was hoping to see support at 9604-ish before getting a recovery but now it looks as though rates might have recovered early.

We've still got the 9627 line in the way on the upside so I'll continue to stand aside for tomorrow.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, June 8, 2005
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Hi Everyone,

Thank you all for your patience as I took care of some family issues requiring my attention and travel. My apologies for the void which I will atempt to make up for with some whiz bang looks at our markets. I didn't trade Monday or today. There is not much sense in looking backward at this point so I'm just going to point you at the markets and price levels I think deserve our attention for tomorrow. I'm going to hit our core markets hard and skip lightly over those charts without very obvious plays. This'll give my eye some time to adjust to the layoff and for me to get back in the trading rhythm. Again, my thanks for understanding. Love you all as I do, family comes first.
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=8-20 HI=9-02 LO=8-12 CL=8-28

After Friday's volatility and weak showing from a disappointing jobs report we put in 2 days of strong up tick. We settled at 118-28 just 4 ticks off the day's high. I will refrain from buying up here and look only at short trades. Today's price flow was comprised of 3 good runs up and 2 down. Both of the down legs were easily playable as they each began right on the 119-00. They look to me as though they should have made easily $350-450 on run #1 and about $250 on the second. Pretty much fish in the barrel syndrome.

Let's see if we can do as well tomorrow. The settle price at 118-28 has us fixed on 119-00 or 118-16 If we get a clear path to a trade at 118-24 I'll look haerd at taking it as well. Remember ... only short trades, no buy zone. A buy doesn't show its face until 117-16 at the very earliest and even then it would have to be a very strong setup to get me buying. More than likely I won't make a buy until 116-16.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.325 HI=.325 LO=.305 CL=.315

We were stopped out of our short ttrade from last Thursday during the Friday session at 96.325 for a $50 loss. I'm going to give this market a day or two of observation ... unless ...

Should we see another pop up to 96.380 I will immediately sell one with a $50 stop.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=57 HI=64 LO=10 CL=49

We had a nice little run lower off the open this morning. Had you been following our numbers from last week you might very well have played off of 8060 this morning and done them some damage.

This market has been exceedingly tough to figure out and execute anything worthwhile of late. I will only consider 3 trades at the moment. I will sell a retest of 8080 that fails with a stop at 8083. The target is anything inside of 8010. I will also sell a retest and failure at 8060 and try to have my stop placeable at 8063 but certainly it is tied to the fill ... no risk over $100 which effectively gives me 10 points with which to play. The third trade is at 8010. I will sell a break below 8000; I will buy a retest and failure inside or close proximity to 8010. The stops respectively are 8003 and 8007 on the buy.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=3.20 HI=2.00 LO=2.80 CL=4.30

All the stock indecies have been on a 2 session uptick run. However, the strong early run to 632 today was met by a failure of even more significant proportion as we returned to prices lower than the session open. Interesting to note that failure occurred just below our 633 number. I'm going to pick right back up playing all the previous TT numbers. Big show of respect at anything near 633/632 tomorrow.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=8.50 HI=8.50 LO=6.20 CL=6.70

We moved back up a notch to the 420-430 channel on Thursday and it has held the higher reaches of that channel the past couple of sessions. We broke a couple of hundred bucks off there today to settle at 426 and change. $10 channel again tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.55 HI=.65 LO=.85 CL=.94

If you carried over the 48.50 number line in the sand from the end of last week you should have done pretty well yesterday. The last 3 sessions have been solidly down, dumping about 200 points. I'm a little perplexed about what to do at this current level. I will play, however. I will buy a break back above 4708 with a stop at 46.97 stop. I will also sell a retest of 47.00 that fails to press higher with a stop at 47.11. Target on the buy is 48.50 and 45.50 on the sell. It's real important that we observe good RRR discipline on either of these trades. We've got to keep a trailing stop working about 30-35 points back and even tighter, 15-20, at any identifiable "what's most likely" S&R levels.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=27 HI=38 LO=17 CL=35

last 2 sessions have been a bit choppy and devoid of any clear direction. The 1430 line has not exercised the control over the price flow that I expected. I think the line now is pretty clearly 1440. I'm going to be an observer tomorrow with an eye on 1440 but no trade. We'll review that decision tomorrow night.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.23 1/2 HI=2.23 1/2 LO=2.19 CL=2.20 1/4

A wicked gap up at the open yesterday ... relative calm today with less than a 4 cent range with most of the day within a 2 cent range. Tomorrow I will be focused on the 2.19 line. I'll be looking to sell a break below there or buy a retest there that fails to push lower. Stops and rolls are at a penny and a quarter. Target on the sell is 2.12 but don't dis' 2.16 and 2.14 on the way down, nor 2.21, 2.22 or 2.24 on the way up where the target is 2.25. Yes, we are still scalpers.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.22 1/2 HI=3.23 1/4 LO=3.18 1/2 CL=3.19 1/4

Just as 2.19 is our line in Corn, here in Wheat it is 3.19. I will sell a break below, buy a failed retest there. Stops and rolls at a penny and a quarter. Targets are 3.12 on the sell and 3.30 on the buy. There are ample S&R lines intervening in both directions. Be a scalper, show them all due respect.
.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Trade Update for Tuesday June 7th 2005

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Erich's Update for Tuesday, June 7, 2005
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"To think too long about doing a thing often becomes its undoing." - Eva Young
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=5 HI=5 1/2 LO=0 1/2 CL=0 3/4

A very strange day in corn today as the market made another hard bounce off the 225 1/2 resistance line. If we see a break through here tomorrow then it will confirm the uptrend, but to tell the truth I think I'll stand aside as today's session was very bearish.

[PS. No, we didn't get filled today because of the huge opening gap.]
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=49 HI=65 LO=15 CL=37

A little surprised that we got filled in cotton today as I was expecting a little more of a pullback, but it seems prices thought otherwise and continued lower anyway.

Filled our sell order easily enough and gave us enough room to get stops to breakeven for tomorrow, although a more flexible plan is to leave them where they are assuming you can afford the loss if things go badly.

First target is support at 4566.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=48 HI=60 LO=12 CL=16

Bean oil mimiced the strange day that we saw in corn as prices opened with a big gap (voiding our trade) and faded against us for the remainder of the session (which is why we avoid the big opening gaps). I expect lower prices tomorrow based on today's activity but I think I'll sit out and wait for the confirmation.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=25 HI=00 LO=20 CL=57.5

Cattle prices rallied somewhat today, but didn't get anywhere near the resistance we are watching at 8450. RSI is looking a little weak, but I do think that we will see cattle continue higher before it comes back down. Standing aside for the moment.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=25 HI=32 LO=08 CL=21

Hmmm, cocoa gave us the bounce off resistance we were looking for today, but to tell the truth I think the downside is limited because of the support at 1390 - 1400.

I have a good feeling that cocoa will go lower tomorrow based on the RSI hook; however how low it will go is really anyone's guess. It is a doable trade, but I think I'll pass right now.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=27 HI=29 LO=22 CL=22 1/2

Whew! That was close! Almost got whipsawed in wheat today, but the resistance did what it was supposed to and kept us out of a potentially bad trade.

After today's session things are definitely looking more bearish than before the weekend; however I'll run both trades again and let the market tell us where it wants to go.

*SELL July Wheat at 320 3/4
*Stop 326 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 302 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

OR

*BUY July Wheat at 329 1/4
*Stop 325 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 348 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $975 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=47 HI=60 LO=40 CL=50

Nice even numbers on the CD session today. The market finished where it began after wandering slightly, but this is definitely a sign of indecision.

Expect rates to drop off and test support, probably around the 7980 area, from where we might look at another buy.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=0 HI=2 LO=6.5 CL=4

A near identical session to last Friday as silver prices continue to hold their own. I would still like to see a pullback move to clear the tables a bit, but if the market continues to stall tomorrow I'll look at placing another buy order above the resistance.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.13 HI=.14 LO=.095 CL=.115

Small day in the ED as rates tested the relatively strong support at 9610. I would still like to take this market short; however the 9610 and 9604 support areas have to be cleared before I start selling.

Standing aside for tomorrow.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
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