Tuesday, June 07, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition - Part One

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Traders Helping Traders Daily Trade Updates for Tuesday 6-7-05

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Erich's Update for Tuesday, June 7, 2005
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Nothing from Tom today due to a family emergency!

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"To think too long about doing a thing often becomes its undoing." - Eva Young
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=5 HI=5 1/2 LO=0 1/2 CL=0 3/4

A very strange day in corn today as the market made another hard bounce off the 225 1/2 resistance line. If we see a break through here tomorrow then it will confirm the uptrend, but to tell the truth I think I'll stand aside as today's session was very bearish.

[PS. No, we didn't get filled today because of the huge opening gap.]
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=49 HI=65 LO=15 CL=37

A little surprised that we got filled in cotton today as I was expecting a little more of a pullback, but it seems prices thought otherwise and continued lower anyway.

Filled our sell order easily enough and gave us enough room to get stops to breakeven for tomorrow, although a more flexible plan is to leave them where they are assuming you can afford the loss if things go badly.

First target is support at 4566.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=48 HI=60 LO=12 CL=16

Bean oil mimiced the strange day that we saw in corn as prices opened with a big gap (voiding our trade) and faded against us for the remainder of the session (which is why we avoid the big opening gaps).

I expect lower prices tomorrow based on today's activity but I think I'll sit out and wait for the confirmation.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=25 HI=00 LO=20 CL=57.5

Cattle prices rallied somewhat today, but didn't get anywhere near the resistance we are watching at 8450. RSI is looking a little weak, but I do think that we will see cattle continue higher before it comes back down.

Standing aside for the moment.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=25 HI=32 LO=08 CL=21

Hmmm, cocoa gave us the bounce off resistance we were looking for today, but to tell the truth I think the downside is limited because of the support at 1390 - 1400.

I have a good feeling that cocoa will go lower tomorrow based on the RSI hook; however how low it will go is really anyone's guess.

It is a doable trade, but I think I'll pass right now.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=27 HI=29 LO=22 CL=22 1/2

Whew! That was close! Almost got whipsawed in wheat today, but the resistance did what it was supposed to and kept us out of a potentially bad trade.

After today's session things are definitely looking more bearish than before the weekend; however I'll run both trades again and let the market tell us where it wants to go.

*SELL July Wheat at 320 3/4
*Stop 326 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 302 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

OR

*BUY July Wheat at 329 1/4
*Stop 325 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 348 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $975 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=47 HI=60 LO=40 CL=50

Nice even numbers on the CD session today. The market finished where it began after wandering slightly, but this is definitely a sign of indecision.

Expect rates to drop off and test support, probably around the 7980 area, from where we might look at another buy.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=0 HI=2 LO=6.5 CL=4

A near identical session to last Friday as silver prices continue to hold their own. I would still like to see a pullback move to clear the tables a bit, but if the market continues to stall tomorrow I'll look at placing another buy order above the resistance.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.13 HI=.14 LO=.095 CL=.115

Small day in the ED as rates tested the relatively strong support at 9610. I would still like to take this market short; however the 9610 and 9604 support areas have to be cleared before I start selling.

Standing aside for tomorrow.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
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RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]

Traders Helping Traders Daily Trade Update for Friday 6-3-05

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Market Update for Friday, June 3, 2005
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"The will to win, the desire to succeed, the urge to reach your full potential...these are the keys that will unlock the door to personal excellence." -Eddie Robinson
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2 HI=2 LO=6 CL=7

Well we didn't get our buy order in corn today, but we did one better, we finally got our testing of the 217 support. Momentum actually fudged the support a bit, but it's close enough for me. If we get a confirmation of support tomorrow then I'll look at buying the market again on Monday.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 OH=70 HI=21 LO=15 CL=76

Cotton traded a little higher today confirming yesterday's support level. I still expect the market to recover a little in the days to come and will look at selling again next week. Keep an eye on your RSI to help you with the timing.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=30 HI=30 LO=62 CL=93

Huge move to the downside in bean oil today as prices shattered teh 2300 support area. Prices actually got a good deal lower than I expected and finally found support near the 2260 area before bouncing back. The market is still in an uptrend, but just barely. A confirmation of support tomorrow will get me looking to buy again next week.
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=75 HI=75 LO=05 CL=45

A lackluster fill in our cattle short today. No doubt the market found some support from the plummetting grain prices. We got tagged for a fill and are short this market, but the close is awfully close to our exits. No matter though. If prices reverse through the 8460 area I'd rather take my lumps early. Hopefully we'll get a break tomorrow and see prices continue lower.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=08 HI=23 LO=03 CL=20

A bit of a bounce in cocoa prices today. Not what I was expecting of course, but the market hasn't found our stop order just yet, although things aren't looking too promising for tomorrow.

RSI is at a testpoint so with a bit of luck we'll see a bounce and lower prices, otherwise we'll be flat going into the weekend which is fine too.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=27 HI=27 LO=22 CL=23 1/2

Big move down in wheat today as the market came up just short of our 321 line...but 322 is close enough. Looking for a reaction here tomorrow to confirm the support otherwise we will be in a bear trend for a little longer.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=16 HI=27 LO=04 CL=21

The CD didn't do a whole lot today as the market held resistance from yesterday and traded lower. The 8000 support area is still holding, but just, and we could see a break through here tomorrow. Not enough room to get the stops to breakeven just yet but you'll want them tucked just under 8000 if that should give way.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=0 HI=3 LO=7 CL=4.5

Got another run at the 760 line today and I took my profits. As it was the market still came up just a 1/2 point short of our 763.5 target. You need to keep that in mind for a market like silver as it has a tendency to react early to resistance and you shouldn't wait for the last tick to get out.

Nothing new here tomorrow, although I suspect we'll see a reaction to the recent rally.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.165 HI=.19 LO=.155 CL=.18

If you didn't take profit on target yesterday then you would have been stopped out today for a small profit as prices briefly broke the 9617 support line.

Probably see rates bounce around a bit as they find their footing, but we'll continue to look to buy at the next opportunity.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, June 3, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=8-17 HI=8-27 LO=8-13 CL=8-25

Nothing but strength today. Nothing for us.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.300 HI=.320 LO=.295 CL=.315

I sold at 96.315. The stop is at 96.325 risking $50.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=16 HI=27 LO=04 CL=21

What an ugly day. Ticks swinging 8 to 12 points ... not for me. I passed on the day. I'll look at 8040 and 8020 tomorrow but will be in no hurry to do anything. I'm about to relegate this market to watch staus only. It's been too wild and wooley.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=3.90 HI=6.70 LO=1.60 CL=5.30

Started the day by buying at 621.90 ... little slow on the draw. I exited at 623.70 for $180. Next up we bought 623.30 and jumped out at 625.70 for $240. Bought 623.30 and exited at 625 even for $170. Total of $590 on the day.

All the same numbers from TT are in play.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=9.00 HI=5.80 LO=8.80 CL=4.80

We moved back up a notch to the 420-430 channel. We got no confirmation so, no trade. $10 channel again tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.40 HI=.21 LO=.15 CL=.76

I bought 48.55 and was stopped out at 48.90 for $175. Bought 48.60 as we retreated to 48.50 a second time. This one I bailed on at 49.10 after we hit what turned out to be the high of the day. We picked up $250 on this one. I'll play the same numbers tomorrow as well as the numbers from the weekend TT.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=08 HI=23 LO=03 CL=20

Just watching ... if we see 1430 we'll put the weekend TT numbers in play.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.22 HI=2.22 LO=2.16 CL=2.17

I sold 2.18 1/2 and was stopped out at 2.17 1/4 for $62. Look for the possibility of the gap closing tomorrow. I'll be willing to buy a retest of 2.14 that fails to punch lower. I'll also sell a break below 2.14.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.27 HI=3.27 LO=3.22 CL=3.23 1/2

Gaped away from us at the open. Nothing done. I will buy a break above 3.25 1/2 tomorrow. I will also sell a failed retest there. I will also sell a break below 3.22 1/2. Penny and a quarter stops and B/E rolls.