Thursday, June 02, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Trade Update for Thursday June 2, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Thursday, June 2, 2005
==================================================
"The will to win, the desire to succeed, the urge to reach your full potential...these are the keys that will unlock the door to personal excellence." -Eddie Robinson
==================================================
1: JULY CORN
==================================================
CN5 O=2 HI=5 1/2 LO=1 1/4 CL=4 1/2

Corn's still testing the upper and lower boundaries of support and resistance. I don't think we're going to see a rally tomorrow (in fact I'd still like to see it test support) but just in case we see a breakout I'll place a buy above the higher resistance and use the 225 level to cover the trade.

*BUY July Corn at 228 1/4
*Protective Stop: 224 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 244 3/4
*Potential Profit: $825 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
==================================================
2: JULY COTTON
==================================================
CTN5 O=45 HI=70 LO=65 CL=59

Cotton really smudged the 4840 support this morning as prices fell to 4765 - 4770 before bouncing back. Look for higher prices tomorrow as the market is likely to rally for a bit. Don't worry, we'll have another chance at this market in the next week or two.
==================================================
3: JULY BEAN OIL
==================================================
BON5 O=07 HI=53 LO=02 CL=50

Who was that smart fella who said we'd see a reaction at the 2300 support? ;-)

That's exactly what we got today too and a nice reaction at that. I am VERY tempted to buy the market long tomorrow if it weren't for the resistance at 2380-ish. I think we'll eventually trade through this but I might wait and see how the market handles this area before recommitting.
==================================================
4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
==================================================
LCM5 O=15 HI=15 LO=25 CL=45

Got the green light to sell cattle today as the market gave us a strong bounce off the 8560 resistance, just as we hoped. Prices fell hard to the 8435 support which was our intended entry from the weekend trade.

Think I'll adjust the trade slightly to allow for today's range.

*SELL June Live Cattle at 8415
*Protective Stop: 8467
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $210 per contract
*Profit Target: 8232
*Potential Profit: $730 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
5: JULY COCOA
==================================================
CCN5 O=12 HI=16 LO=92 CL=94

Got our fill in cocoa today as the market finally broke support. You can bring your exit stops in a bit and place them above today's high if you like but it might be a little early to get them to breakeven.

Let your account be your guide however. First profit target is 1319.
==================================================
6: JULY WHEAT
==================================================
WN5 O=31 1/2 HI=35 LO=29 CL=31 1/2

A very indecisive day in the wheat market today as prices bounced off the 329 support again. I'm expecting the market to rally tomorrow (maybe) but will wait for the confirmation of support before buying in.

I'd still like to see a dip to the 321 area before buying again, but all this channelling is making me impatient!
==================================================
7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
==================================================
CDM5 O=71 HI=36 LO=68 CL=21

Well the Canadian Dollar was anything but wishy-washy today! The market rallied right from the open and easily found our buy order. Rates skyrocketed to the 8036 high before backing off a bit.

Move exit stops to either break even or just below the 8000 support for tomorrow. I'd like to give the market a little more room, but I just don't trust the currencies.
==================================================
8: JULY SILVER
==================================================
SIN5 O=2.5 HI=1 LO=9 CL=2

Silver rallied nicely today, but came up just a couple of ticks shy of our profit target! After that the market fell off to the 750 line where it closed the session.

If you were able to watch the progression through the day you might have been able to capture much of that profit otherwise you'll have to move stops to under the 746 support.

If we see 761 again tomorrow...I'll take it. In fact, I'll probably take 759.5.
==================================================
9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
==================================================
EDH6 O=.09 HI=.27 LO=.08 CL=.195

Well that worked out pretty well, don't you think? ;-)

The ED easily found our entry and profit orders today, so if you exited on target you would have picked up $400 per contract. If you're still long this market bring in stops just under the 96.17 resistance.
==================================================
10: WILD CARD
==================================================
No wild card market for tomorrow.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
==================================================
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, June 2, 2005
========================================================
========================================================
1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDU5 O=7-26 HI=8-22 LO=7-22 CL=8-13

More strength from a perception the fed is done with rate hikes for a while. The Dallas Fed President said, in remarks today, that the policy of rate increases was in the "8th inning" ... pretty powerful comment. Obviously, given my comments from yesterday, I am only looking at selling opportunities at this level. We are at prices higher than any time since March of 2003 ... when rates were falling dramatically. Wonderful for the housing industry ... you can shelve the bubble theory for a another year atleast.

I sold 118-14 and exited at -07 for 7, $218. Followed that up with a sell at -13 which I exited at -10 for a small add of 3 ticks, $93. That was it for the day. I was very happy to pocket what I did in the midst of all that power. The close at 118-13 sets us up for 118-16 or 118-00 for tomorrow. I think we might see a big day tomorrow. Be on your toes.
========================================================
2: JUNE/SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDM5 O=.582 HI=.605 LO=.582 CL=.582
EDU5 O=.280 HI=.385 LO=.275 CL=.320

I exited our June position at 96.600 picking up 5 points, $125 for the weeklong effort. Today was the perfect day to make the roll. We made a big push higher and failed big time at the most obvious number on the chart. With the expansion of time out to September we will likely see more volatility than recent times in the JUNE so be ready for that. It's important we don't let the JUNE experience lull us to sleep.

Obviously, should we get a retest of 96.380 tomorrow we'll want to sell that ... I'd say a 50 lot should do it ... just kidding. We closed at .320 which ios also an important number to my eye. It would have been nice to get the close a little lower, retest it, fail and then the door would be open to sell. If we get a chance to get one sold near .320 but under it, I will. The obvious target is 96.180. Short stops and lock in accumulated profits in $125 increments with rolls of your stop.
========================================================
3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDM5 O=41 HI=98 LO=27 CL=76

Our patience and perseverance with our selected n=umber paid a little dividend today. We bought 7984 and we were off to the races. I was stopped at 8025 for $410. Nothing after that made any sense.

For tomorrow we'll first look at 8040. We'll buy a break above or we'll sell a break below 8020. Pretty simple.
========================================================
4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTM5 O=6.30 HI=5.90 LO=5.90 CL=4.30

Right on 616 as we opened our trading window. We bought one immediately at 616.40. We just kept climbing and rolling our stops. We bailed on this one at 624.20 for $800. I bought 623.50 and out at 624.90 for $140. Bought 623.50 again and exited at 624.80 adding another $130 to the take. The next trade was too juicy to pass up even though it wasn't on my hit list ... I sold 624.80 as 625 was attempted and rejected too many times to let it go. I exited at 619.90 for $490. I was done for the day with a total of $1560.

I probably could have picked up another $200 or so as a buy on the break above 621 made it's way to 624. All the same numbers from TT are in play.
========================================================
5: AUGUST GOLD
========================================================
GCQ5 O=8.50 HI=9.50 LO=6.70 CL=7.70

I sold 418.40, rolled to B/E at 418, rolled to 417.10 as we broke 17 and was stopped out right there for $130. I followed that by selling 418.60 and getting stopped at .70 loosing $10. Ended the day. $10 channel again tomorrow.
========================================================
6: JULY COTTON
========================================================
CTN5 O=.45 HI=.70 LO=.65 CL=.59

It gapped a little below our target entry. I had to let it go. We climbed back to and thru .50 but it was going to hard to get a buy done ... good thing as it turned out. I sold one at 48.45 and was stopped out at 48.15 for 30 points, $150.

Same deal for tomorrow ... 48.50 was just a perfect "what's most likely" target as well ... closed that old February gap and everything. There's enough there to justify a whack at 'em. I will sell a break below 48.50 with a 48.63 stop and a roll to B/E at 48.40. The target is 46.00. I'll also buy a failed retest at 48.50 with a stop at 48.37 and a B/E roll at 48.60. The traget here is 50.00. There are some likely S&R levels between each entry and the corresponding target. Roll tight. All other prices keep a stop trailing no more than 30-35 points back.
========================================================
7: JULY COCOA
========================================================
CON5 O=12 HI=16 LO=92 CL=94

Nope, just more weakness. Off the radar for the moment.
========================================================
8: JULY CORN
========================================================
CN5 O=2.22 HI=2.25 1/2 LO=2.211/4 CL=2.24 1/2

I sold at 2.24 1/2 and was stopped at B/E. Same numbers for tomorrow from TT.
========================================================
9: MAY WHEAT
========================================================
WN5 O=3.31 1/2 HI=3.35 LO=3.29 CL=3.31 1/2

Look at the low of the day ... pretty amazing stuff, this Support and Resistance is. I bought 3.29 1/2. Although 3.40 was clearly the target 3.35 had lots to recommend it as a "what's most likely" number. It was there in 20 minutes and failed ... I'm out at 3.34 1/2 for 5 cents, $250.

Same TT numbers for tomorrow together with 3.29 again.