Tuesday, May 17, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday 5-13-05

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Market Update for Friday, May 13, 2005
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FRIDAY THE THIRTEENTH! Nervous? Trading today? Why you superstitious little puppy, you!
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=5 HI=5 1/2 LO=3 CL=4 1/4

Got filled in our corn short today as prices made a pretty good break of the old support at 205. The only problem is that prices closed back above the resistance so technically it's still intact.

I'm not too worried yet and you could either leave exit stops as they are or bring them in just above the 205 1/2 resistance for tomorrow.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=70 HI=15 LO=80 CL=08

Figures that cotton should give us a good trade setup for a Friday...I hate trading cotton on a Friday!

Okay, here we go, if prices break the support on today's low at 5480 I'll look to sell the market short and try to trade it down to support at 5260-70. This is a very HIGH risk trade however, so judge for yourself whether or not you can afford the risk.

*SELL July Cotton at 5477
*Stop 5531
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $270 per contract
*Profit Target: 5273
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1020 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=04 HI=13 LO=75 CL=77

Bean Oil prices broke support today and filled our short order. While the market made a good move to the downside we're still a little tight for bringing in our exit stops so if you can stand it you might want to leave them where they are...but if you can't bring them in as tight as you dare.
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=72.5 HI=05 LO=45 CL=80

Cattle prices began flinching today as prices encountered the 8700 area. Given the indecisive close I might expect a bit of a bounce off here tomorrow, but nothing I want to put money on.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=84 HI=89 LO=66 CL=72

Well whaddaya know...cocoa finally gave us a good fill! While the market gapped on the open prices were behaving after opening range so we placed our sell order. Shortly afterwards prices made a solid move to the downside.

In fact today's range gives us enough room to safely bring exit stops to break even...I love it when that happens! First profit target is support at 1421.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=12 1/2 HI=13 1/2 LO=7 CL=8 3/4

Did you notice wheat's high today? Yep, right on the 313 resistance! Wheat prices found our short order quite easily today but we're not really clear to move stops just yet. With a little luck we'll see another lower session tomorrow which would allow us to bring in stops to breakeven.

Of course if you're not comfortable leaving the stops where they are bring them up as much as is good for you. Only you know what's best for your account.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=11 HI=15 LO=88 CL=99

The CD stalled today as we hoped, but given that tomorrow is Friday I think I'm going to pass on selling this market. Rather I would be on the lookout for a possible testing of support at 7960 which is a fairly strong support level and might allow us to plan a good trade for Monday.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=8.5 HI=9 LO=3 CL=6.5

See, what did I tell you? We hit the silver market a day too early yesterday as prices fell through the floor today. #%[email protected] silver! I'm really starting to get ticked off!

We've got confirmation of resistance and prices are likely to head lower tomorrow, but with support nearby at 687 - 690 I think I'll wait until Monday.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O•.89 HI•.955 LO•.845 CL•.945

"Nuts-o" is the word that comes to mind when I look at the Eurodollar chart. Rates are bouncing around like an eight year old on Starbucks coffee. The only good thing is that we're getting close to another RSI testpoint, the third one at that, so a bounce is looking likely.

Even so I think I'll wait it out until next week.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, May 13, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=4-26 HI=5-08 LO=4-14 CL=5-05

I bought at 114-21 and was stopped at B/E. I bought at 114-22 and exited at -29 for 7 ticks. I bought a second time at 114-22 and took the profits at 114-30 for 8 more. Did the the ol' flip flop and sold one at 114-28 and was stopped at -21 adding 7 to the take. I tried to sell -15/-14 but it snapped back so fast it didn't let me in ... thank you bid/asked. I then bought 114-20 ... a bit earlier than normal on the trigger, motivated in part by what I percieved to be a big failure at -14. This turned out to be the run of the day. We ran up to 115-05/-06 coinciding with moving into the fianl hour. I just grabbed and ran at 115-04 banking 16 ticks. Total for the day ... a whopping 38 ticks, $1187. Not too bad for Simple Simon stuff.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.560 HI=.570 LO=.555 CL=.565

We made it thru another day. A bit stronger appearing than yesterday but not sufficiently so to provoke any dancing in the street. We'll see what tomorrow brings without changing a thing.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=11 HI=15 LO=88 CL=99

We got the gap. It was down. We watched. CD made its way back to 8016 but I couldn't sell it by the plan. 8000 is a marginal S&R level for me. I won't trade it, I'll wait for 8016/23 to come back into play.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=5.90 HI=8.70 LO=5.30 CL=6.00

As our trading window opened the Russell was right on 597. I bought 597.10. We tried a whole bunch of times to get above 598. We'd go the 30, fail, to 40 fail, to 20, fail. I bailed out at 597.90 covering the cost of the trade and not much else. At 596.60 I sold one. We made it down to 594 and bounced pretty hard ... I exited at 594.90 for $170. It was flying when we came back to 597 and I couldn't get anything done at an acceptable number but I was sure watchin' to se what would happen at 598. Sure enough it came right back to it and showed evidence again of being out of gas. I sold 596.60 again, it turned on a dime and scooted back up. I got out at 597.60 for $100 loss. It continued up to 598 and failed yet again. I jumped on it early selling 597.40 sure that we'd break 597 again. It did. We got down to 593 this time before bouncing back. I bailed at 594.50 pocketing $290. This swing we made it back only to 596.40, pounded on it twice and headed south again. I sold it at 596 considering the prior action as a "synthetic" retest of 597. This one extended the lows of the RTH session to 591.80 ... close to our 591 number. Things were getting hot in the bonds and I needed time so I bailed at 592.30 for $410. I came back just in time to see it breaking 591. I sold 590.50. Considering the numbers I was watching, where do you think it went? Yup, right on down to 586. I jumped out at 587.50 for another $300. I left it alone, I was worn out, the adrenaline was really pumping and, truthfully, I couldn't sustain the concentration necessary so I closed down and went back to oversee the Bonds.

All the same numbers from TT over the weekeend plus 597. We were right around 586 when I shut down. It just floated around at that level. Sop we'll be eying 586 in the morning as first focus.
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5: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=6.20 HI=6.40 LO=0.90 CL=2.20

Today's action broke a very stout 426 support line. We haven't been below 426 with any resolve since mid February. That's a long time back, people. I should have had it on my radar but didn't ... bad cop, no donut. It made it down to test 420 and threaten to break out the bottom of the 420/430 channel. As expected it did hold. It was too late int he session to play it despite the fact we got a really nice confirmation. We'll look for the play off the bottom of the channel tomorrow or the break below into the 410/420 channel.

$10 channel for tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.70 HI=.15 LO=.80 CL=.08

You knew we were flirting with the break. No way was CT gonna' set new highs ... well, I didn't think so, anyway. We gapped out well below our lowest entry target at 56.60. I didn't .15 was close enough to .50 to scoop it up. Wished I would have though:)

If we break 55.00 and they give us a shot at a fill near by, I'll sell it.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=84 HI=89 LO=66 CL=72

That was ugly weakness today. I will buy a break back above 1478 tomorrow with a stop at 1472. Roll to B/E at 1484 and use 1520 as an initial target. I'm really thinkin' 1560. Protect yourself with tight rolls at 1500 and if we get above 1520 make another one as we pass thru 1540.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.05 HI=2.05 1/2 LO=2.03 CL=2.04 1/4

Weak, weak, weak. Anybody hearing anything from those brokers who called you last month insisting you buy Corn, the big move is underway? Didn't think so. Who loves ya', Baby. What will we do tomorrow? Right on, buy a break above 2.05 ... period.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.15 HI=3.23 LO=3.15 CL=3.21 1/2

... and if you liked Corn, you'll love this one. My plan prohibited me from selling the break below 3.13. We'll buy the break back above it.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Thursday 5-12-05

All the same numbers from weekend TT tomorrow PLUS I will add 597 to the mix. This level has definitely been a factor and deserves recognition.
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5: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=8.70 HI=9.30 LO=6.00 CL=7.90

I sold 428.40 again today and did a little better than yesterday. When we got down to 426.50 I rolled my stop to 427.10 and was botted at 427.00 picking up $140. I sold 428.50 later in the day and ran out of time. I closed out at 427.60 collecting another $90. Felt pretty good to take some gold gains home.

$10 channel for manana~.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.80 HI=.90 LO=.35 CL=.80

Nothing but more power to the upside as we head for recent contract highs. For tomorrow I will look for a couple of trades. First a retest and failure at 57.00 is worth a sell. The stop is 57.11 and we'll roll to B/E at 56.83. The risk is about $60. The target is 51.50 for a ridiculous RRR. In between ther eis a ton and a half of support ... 56.50, 56.00, 55.75, 55.50, 55.00, 54.75, 54.50, 54.30, 54.00, 53.75, 53.50, 53.20, 53.00, 52.75, 52.50, 52.00 and 51.80 ... whew. Protect 'em all with rolls ... tight at the stronger levels and maybe a little wider at the not so strong ones. To put a number on it, I'd say stops with 15-17 points at the monsters and about 25-30 at the junior ones.

The second number is 56.50 ... we'll sell a break of that level with a stop at 56.61/63 and a roll to B/E at 56.40. Use the applicable numbers above for management.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=95 HI=09 LO=90 CL=91

It got there today but wasn't showing any thing even remotely convincing in the strength department. I watched but it never gave us a thing to go after. I'll stay on the same numbers for tomorrow.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.07 HI=2.07 1/4 LO=2.05 3/4 CL=2.06 1/2

We fell back almost to the support at 2.05 but not quite. Patience all.

I'll go right back after the same numbers tomorrow ... 2.10 and 2.05.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.15 HI=3.23 LO=3.15 CL=3.21 1/2

I sold 3.19 1/2 and headed for the side exit at 3.15. They stopped me out at 3.15 1/4. We ended the day at 3.13 3/4. Let's get ready to rum-bull at the open and 3.13 for tomorrow. Probably won't happen as the night session is rockin' pretty good to the upside.

Same 3.13 and 3.20 plays for tomorrow.