Friday, April 29, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday 4-29-05

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Erich's Update for Friday, April 29, 2005
==================================================
Hot off the commodity presses to you! Well, not exactly...the Subscribers got this Thursday evening, Test Drivers get it after the fact. To get yours ON TIME...go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Scroll down for Tom's Trades.

"It's not who you are that holds you back, it's who you think you are not." - Anonymous
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=7 1/2 HI=7 1/2 LO=2 1/2 CL=3

Holey Moley, look at corn go! It's been a while since we've seen this market move like this! Honestly, I'm surprised at corn's downward momentum. I would have thought we would see a little more reluctance on the way down, but I guess not. Any guesses what the market's going to do tomorrow now that we're getting close to solid support? Stall? Yep, I'd say so.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=70 HI=45 LO=50 CL=02

Big range in cotton today, and while the market definitely looks bullish, I'm not in a buying mood just yet. Tomorrow's Friday and anything can happen in this market. I would think after this week's big ranges a smaller day might be in order.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=70 HI=72 LO=31 CL=35

Same high as yesterday as Bean Oil prices made a good move to the downside. Notice where support came? Yep, right at (near) the 2240 line we were watching.

I dunno what I want to do here. If it wasn't Friday tomorrow I'd short in a heartbeat; however the market's trading off some pretty strong support. I'd hate to get caught by a meandering market and have to hold a position over the weekend.

Think I'll just watch. A stall at support will mean an easy sell next week.
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=60 HI=83 LO=45 CL=60

Ooops! Cattle stalled rather abruptly today at 8545 support. It's not all that unusual after a big down day though. Looks as though cattle might be heading lower, but I'd love to see it hold here for Friday.

Call me crazy, but there's not enough Malox in the house to help me cope with an open cattle contract over the weekend (at least at this time).
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=00 HI=05 LO=84 CL=88

Too bad cocoa stalled out today and hit our exit stops. I still think we had the right idea with this market however we got into it a little too early. Not comfortable holding this market over the weekend either so I'll have to pass tomorrow.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=29 1/2 HI=31 LO=24 3/4 C=27 1/4

Wheat's still holding support, but just barely. It's as though the market is fighting the obvious bearishness in the other grains, although it really doesn't want to go! A higher session tomorrow will confirm our suspicions and keep us looking long, otherwise we'll have to reassess our position and consider selling next week.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=91 HI=10 LO=80 CL=90

If you're still short the CD trade then you'll want to consider bringing in those exit stops a bit as rates came just 3 ticks short of our first profit target today. Other than that I don't see anything new for tomorrow.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=9 HI=9.5 LO=1 CL=4.8

Silver tanked hard today. It was actually a very nice session, one without too much chop and would have been nice to take part of; however we didn't have enough structure to base a position trade on. Nothing new here for tomorrow.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.975 HI=.035 LO=.95 CL=.015

Well we definitely had the right idea about this market too bad we missed the entry by a couple of ticks. Not too worry though, we'll get another chance at this market soon enough.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Friday, April 29, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=4-17 HI=5-04 LO=4-11 CL=5-01

The GDP affected the market this morning. We now have a weaker than expected economy with core inflation idicators showing signs of rising. Is it in balance enough enough to allow the FED to continue with the rate increases as planned or will they have to back off to accomodate this softness? After some volatility we came down on the side of believing they'll be forced to at least slow the pace of increases if not delay them indefinitely.

I bought one at 114-21 and was stopped out at -23 at about quarter till 8 CDT. Plus 2. I bought -21 again about 11:25. We finally began to move but we were really pushing the final hour. I put in an order to sell at 114-31 and was taken out there for 10 tick, $312.

The close at 115-01 makes for a tough stop to tomorrow's session. I will buy the break of 115-00 but we may not get a shot to sell until 114-24 or 114-16 depending on how you're playing. We may see some small spec, late as usual, buying early in the session tomorrow as the "indicator crowd" scramble to react to their chart work from tonight. Look for them to get slammed as the market breaks to the downside. Without some additional reasons tomorrow I don't think 115-00 can be sustained. There are some important reports coming tomorrow ... personal income and outlays, a FED favorite and U of Mich Consumer Sentiment ... in the morning. Let's say NO TRADING for the first half an hour. No buying, PERIOD, tomorrow above 114-16.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.590 HI=.610 LO=.585 CL=.595

The GDP induced bounce got us today. We were stopped out at 96.605 for a $12 loss. We'll just watch tomorrow.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=91 HI=10 LO=80 CL=90

Sometimes all you need do is let them know what you'd like to see ... lol. I bought one at 7985. At 92 I brought the trade stop to B/E. At 8000 I rolled it to 7997. When we touched 8010 I moved the stop to 8007 and was stopped at 8005 for $200. Same exact numbers from yesterday for tomorrow.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=8.00 HI=8.40 LO=2.80 CL=4.30

I succeeded in getting one sold at 585.50 and dumping it at 582.50 for $300. I tried to do it again but was too slow on the draw as it fell off sharply after the retest of 585.50. There was a potential for a $1000 in there today. I never got a shot at any more of it. All the same numbers again tomorrow, plus I'll buy a break above 580.
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5: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=4.10 HI=5.30 LO=2.20 CL=2.40

$10 Channel for tomorrow ... patience.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.70 HI=.45 LO=.50 CL=.02

It did get up there, but too late in the day for me to do anything about it. Drat! Same numbers from yesterday for tomorrow
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=00 HI=05 LO=84 CL=88

I bought 1487. At 1500 I rolled my stop to 1497 and I got stopped out at 1495 for $80. That was it for the day as they hid my numbers from me until it was too late to do anything.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.17 1/2 HI=2.17 1/2 LO=2.12 1/2 CL=2.13

I sold 2.16 1/2 shortly after the open. We just ground lower all day long. 2.13 was so, so obvious ... I bailed right there. Out with $175. Tomorrow we'll trade 2.13 either way with penny and a QUARTER stops. I 'd love to see an opening press on 2.12 in the morning and then a failure ... juicy buy. I'll also buy a break above 2.13. We are still what? Yup, scalpers. is right.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.29 1/2 HI=3.31 LO=3.24 3/4 CL=3.27 1/4

I sold 3.25 3/4 and was stopped at B/E. I turned right around and bought 3.26 1/2 and rolled my stop to B/E as it climbed above 3.27. When we went above 3.28 I brought it to 3.27 1/4. I thought seriously about holding overnight but reminded myself that I'm a scalper right now and dumped it at 3.28 for a penny and a half, $75.

Same numbers for tomorrow plus I will either buy a break above 3.30 or sell a retest of anything above 3.29 that fails and heads south. Penny and a half stops.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Thursday 4-28-05

Erich's Update for Thursday, April 28, 2005
==================================================
Hot off the commodity presses to you! Well, not exactly...the Subscribers got this Wednesday evening, Test Drivers get it after the fact. To get yours ON TIME...go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Scroll down for Tom's Trades.

"It's not who you are that holds you back, it's who you think you are not." - Anonymous
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2 1/4 HI=2 1/4 LO=6 1/4 CL=7

Yikes! What a day in corn. Got the 217 test today, but as bearish as corn was today I don't think I'm into buying just at the moment. RSI has given us a good break of the trendline which should see prices continue lower; however today's big range has me on hold. Sorry.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=50 HI=59 LO=26 CL=41

No real surprise here today as cotton prices fell off a bit. Look for another chance to buy as prices find support, likely tomorrow...but that could leave us with the dreaded "do we trade cotton on a Friday" scenario.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=70 HI=72 LO=52 CL=67

Yuck! That's all I can say about bean oil right now. The market's still stuck between the aforementioned support and resistance numbers and there's not a whole lot to do until they get closer. Expecting a bounce off support tomorrow, but we'll see what gives.
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=30 HI=35 LO=35 CL=62

What gives with these markets today? Nothing for a whole week, then wham-o! Away she goes. Today's big range is making me a little shy about entering tomorrow as traders are likely to second guess themselves a bit. Standing aside for now.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=86 HI=11 LO=85 CL=11

Got filled on a good rally in cocoa today as prices rallied higher. Remember that this is a short term countertrend trade so keep those profit taking orders nearby. Not much room to move stops yet. Have to leave them where they are for tomorrow.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=35 HI=35 1/2 LO=26 1/2 CL=29 1/4

Ta-da! 326, on the button, well, almost. Wheat tested the 326 support today, and now it remains to be seen if prices can hold this level. I'm half tempted to buy the market at the 326 support tomorrow, but that would require nerves of steel. The opportunity is there if you think you can handle it, otherwise wait for the reaction, which is what I'm doing.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=26 HI=55 LO=96 CL=09

The market opened with a big gap down, as we hoped, but if you brought stops to breakeven today I'm afraid you would have been tagged as rates just barely rallied high enough.

If you still happen to be short this market bring stops in to protect some profits. At least to breakeven, or just above the good ole resistance at 8013.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=0.5 HI=1 LO=2.5 CL=8.1

Silver decided to go the other way today, which is fine. I don't expect prices to go too much lower however and would look for them to recover around the 709 - 710 area. Nothing new here tomorrow.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.88 HI=.98 LO=.875 CL=.94

"Missed it by that much" [insert Maxwell Smart impersonation here] The ED rallied today withoutever getting low enough to find our buy order. Had the right idea, just expected the market to test the 9585 a little more before bouncing. Hopefully we'll see a smallish range tomorrow.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, April 27, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=3-26 HI=4-22 LO=3-26 CL=4-11

Following the open bonds sorta' just scooted right past the 114-03 mark. We picked it at -08 buying one. Pretty easy and orderly advance to 114-16 area. A grind up to -22 and a failure that stopped us out at 114-17 for 9 ticks. Later in the day I sold one at 114-14 and got stopped at 10 for another 4 making a total of 13, $406 on the day.

Today's 114-11 close puts us on 114-16, 114-08 or 114-00 for tomorrow.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.575 HI=.590 LO=.570 CL=.580

A bit of green showed up today. We are still short from 96.600 with the stop at 96.605.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=26 HI=55 LO=96 CL=09

We were really close to the number at the open. I would have taken anything 8025 or lower ... not to be. From there it made a nice climb to 55 and I tried to sell one there and was rejected also. We broke 8000 before the day was done.

Tomorrow I'd love to see a failure that tests 7980/70 and then a turn around to buy as it bounces back above 7980. The stop is 7971. Get the trade to B/E before 8000. I'll also buy a break above 8023 with a 8013 stop. 8030 is the B/E trigger. I'll also sell a failure on a retest of 8060 or 8080. I'll buy a break above 8080. 8180 would be my target with rolls at 8040, 8060, 8080, 8120, 8140 and I'll start the squeeze above 8160.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=8.10 HI=1.90 LO=0.30 CL=8.00

I sold 585.90 just after the RTH window opened and exited at 584.70 for $120. I sold 585.90 again and ran with it down to 581.60 for $430. Bought 586.40 and stopped out at 584.40 for $200. We were done by then. All the same numbers for tomorrow clear back to 2 weeks ago TT.
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5: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=6.50 HI=8.20 LO=3.20 CL=4.10

438.20 was not quite high enough for a good confirm to materialize. We might have picked up 2-300 if it had just gone a tad higher before failing. $10 Gold Channel for tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.50 HI=.59 LO=.26 CL=.41

Nothing for us today. Same numbers for tomorrow plus I will I will sell a retest above 57.30 that fails with a stop at 57.59. If no fill is available above 30 I will wait and sell a break of 57.00. 54.00 is the target on these. I'll also sell a break below 54.00 or 53.50. The target is 52.50
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=86 HI=11 LO=85 CL=00

The gap up open was just a bit too high for me to get comfortable with a buy. For tomorrow I'll buy a retest below 1485 that fails and heads back north. I'll also buy a break above 1520 or sell afailure there. The stop on the 1485 is 1473. On the 1520 buy it's 1509 and 1523 on the sell. Use the numbers from yesterday for rolls.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.22 1/4 HI=2.22 1/4 LO=2.16 1/4 CL=2.17 3/4

I sold 2.21 1/4. 2.17 was such a strong"what's most likely" number I didn't even hesitate. I just grabbed it. Out at 2.17 even for 4 1/4 cents, $212.

I like buying a break back above 2.17 with a penny and a quarter stop. I'd also like to sell a break below 2.17. It's up some overnight. We'll see where we are in the morning.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.35 HI=3.35 1/2 LO=3.26 1/2 CL=3.29 1/4

Same numbers for tomorrow. They look a whole lot more likely now.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday, 4-27-05

==================================================
Erich's Update for Wednesday, April 27, 2005
==================================================
Hot off the commodity presses to you! Well, not exactly...the Subscribers got this Tuesday evening, Test Drivers get it after the fact. To get yours ON TIME...go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Scroll down for Tom's Trades.

"It's not who you are that holds you back, it's who you think you are not." - Anonymous
==================================================
1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2 1/4 HI=2 1/2 LO=0 1/4 CL=1 3/4

Corn stalled slightly today, but didn't give anything back as support held firm. I'm still looking to buy this market but need to be able to get in at a good price. I'd dearly love to see the market fall off, even a little, tomorrow.

If we get a test of the 218 support then I'll be all over buying this market on Thursday. I'll press my luck and give it one more day to shake itself out.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=50 HI=50 LO=00 CL=47

Another higher day for cotton today, but don't look for this market to continue higher tomorrow. Cotton's moved a long way and is due to "normalize" a bit, which I think we'll see happen beginning tomorrow.

Don't worry. We'll have another chance at this market in a day or two.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=95 HI=95 LO=67 CL=79

Bean Oil has me a bit puzzled. The market is trading just for the sake of trading, but really isn't going anywhere.

We've got prices trapped between 2240 and 2340. I'm not certain I want to do anything with this market tomorrow however.
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=05 HI=30 LO=67.5 CL=12.5

Boy, it's been a long time between cattle trades for us. Usually this market gives us some decent setups, but nothing lately. All I know is that it looks as though prices are coming down tomorrow, but I don't see anything tradable.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=90 HI=95 LO=74 CL=76

Got the test of 1475 today on a pretty bearish day overall. Cocoa's still quite oversold, and while this does not mean that prices have to trade higher, it does make me a little more comfortable looking at a countertrend trade for tomorrow.

This isn't an idea situation mind you; however we might be able to pick up a couple of bucks on a bounce. No doubt we're not the only traders out there who recognize a good deal when we see one, so let's look at buying cocoa tomorrow above resistance.

*BUY July Cocoa at 1503
*Stop 1487
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $170 per contract
*Profit Target: 1554
*Approximate Profit Potential: $510 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=29 1/2 HI=35 1/2 LO=29 C=33 1/2

Wheat managed to hold it's own today as prices traded within yesterday's range. Look for wheat prices to fall off a bit and test support tomorrow, maybe getting back to the 326 area before recovering.

I'm watching RSI at the moment. If it dips a little lower then we'll get all over buying this market again.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=60 HI=64 LO=10 CL=40

Notice where the CD made it's low today? Yep, right at 8010...anyone still wonder if support and resistance works?

I knew the 8010 support could be trouble for our trade which it obvious was today. But no matter, the market left us enough room that we can get stops to breakeven for tomorrow. If we're really lucky we'll see it open gap down and not look back!

We can always hope.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=0.5 HI=6.5 LO=6 CL=0.2

It's been a long time since I've seen silver so paralyzed that the market doesn't make any ranges. The ranges of the last two days are nearly identical and could be bracketed like a channel; however I'm going to look at the buy scenario only.

*BUY July Silver at 741
*Stop 736
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 764.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1175 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.935 HI=.94 LO=.865 CL=.895

The ED inched closer to our entry today but came up a little short. I'll run with the same trade again tomorrow but realize that the entry might be out of reach.

*BUY March Eurodollar at 95.8475
*Stop 95.7975
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 96.11
*Approximate Profit Potential: $650 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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10: WILD CARD
==================================================
No wild card market for tomorrow.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected] ========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, April 27, 2005
========================================================
Jacki's Dad has been in the hospital for 2 weeks. He was released this afternoon and we've spent most of the night getting him settled in, so this update is even later than normal. I'm hopeful a change will soon occur in my schedule ... I'm working on it ... hard. This change will put me home at a more normal 5 or 6 instead of 10 pm or later as it is now. Let's all keep our fingers crossed, shall we?

Jacki's at his apartment for the night so I'm left to my own devices, listening to John Lee Hooker, Merle Haggard, Waylon Jennings and Joe Cocker ... how's that for some eclectic mix ... and typing as fast as my fat little fingers can go ...
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=4-13 HI=4-18 LO=3-22 CL=4-02

Despite a tumble in consumer confidence levels, the strong, strong resale new home sales numbers were all it took to convince the rate sensitive issues to head lower in the belief this sector strength will hasten rate increases from the FOMC ... yadda, yadda, yadda.

The open at 114-13, a little climb to -18 was a nice setup to the drop that followed. We sold one at -14 that was stopped out at B/E. I resold at -08 on a nice but lucky fill, consistent with the experiment in process. I tried to get one resold at -14 but couldn't. We broke -28 and I rolled to -31. We then broke to -23 and I rolled to -25 and was stopped at -25 for 15 ticks, $468. I bought -25 and rolled to -28 as we tapped 114-00. They came and got us. Out at 113-28 for another 3 ticks, $93.

The settlement at 114-02 has me working 114-00, 114-08 and 114-16 for tomorrow's open. You'll be on 114-00 and 114-16 unless we gap lower opening under 114-00. Then the focus will be 114-00 and 113-16 for you all. 114-00 and 113-24 for me.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.590 HI=.595 LO=.565 CL=.575

I'll just parrot yesterday's comments ... we retain our short position from Thursday. Stop is now 96.605 ... just shy of B/E. I hate those round, round numbers. This pegs the risk at $12.50. We press on into tomorrow.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=60 HI=64 LO=10 CL=40

8060 was sure the number to start this day. Only problem was I didn't see as strong enough to warrant an entry. I should have, 'cause it is. Not a very good read, Tom. That would have been a pretty easy $500. Oh well. I bought one at 8025 and got stopped at B/E.

Tomorrow I'll go again at 8016/23 buying as it breaks back above 23 or tests it and fails. I actually expect it to test 8010 or vicinity again tomorrow. I will sell a retest of 8060 that fails and also a retest of 8080 that fails. I'll also buy a break above 8080 ... but don't count on that happening.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=7.00 HI=0.00 LO=7.50 CL=8.40

I thought 600.00 was close enough to be considered a test of 600.30. I sold 599.80 and out at 596.60 for for $320. Never gave me numbers after that. Late, late in the day it got down close to 586, hitting 587.50. Not close enough but very watchful.

It's down there right now so be prepared on the opening of the RTH trading window. Lookin' real juicy. We'll see.
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5: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=8.70 HI=9.10 LO=7.00 CL=9.00

I didn't think the early first move on 439.00 had a confirm attached to it. I sat tight. At 439.10 I thought we had one and sold 438.50. Stopped at 437.80 on a .70 stop for $70.

$10 channel for tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.50 HI=.50 LO=.00 CL=.47

Nothing for us today. Same numbers for tomorrow.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=90 HI=95 LO=74 CL=76

I really want to buy 1475. We settled right there at 1476. I need to see a press lower and a clear failure ... then I'll go. Buy 1475 or as close as possible. The stop is 1471. Get it to B/E at 83. I like 1580 as a destination. You gotta' roll at 1500, 1520, 1540 and start squeezing in ernest at 1560 and above.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.22 1/4 HI=2.22 1/2 LO=2.20 1/4 CL=2.21 3/4

Opening volatility put me on the sidelines for a bit. The balance of the day was spent in a tight half cent sideways channel. I sold 1 at 2.21 3/4. I watched it try to break below 2.21 about a hundred times. No thanks. I bailed at B/E. I'll try it again tomorrow with the same numbers. Please remember the first buying op comes on the break above 2.24. I do not think it wise to buy below there.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.29 1/2 HI=3.35 1/2 LO=3.29 CL=3.33 1/2

Only one play for right now. I will sell a break below 3.26 with a cent and a half stop or I will buy a retest of 3.26 that fails with the same penny and a half at risk.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Tuesday 4-26-05

==================================================
Erich's Update for Tuesday, April 26, 2005
==================================================
Hot off the commodity presses to you! Well, not exactly...the Subscribers got this Monday evening, Test Drivers get it after the fact. To get yours good and clean and fresh, tra la la...go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Scroll down for Tom's Trades.
"It's not who you are that holds you back, it's who you think you are not." - Anonymous
==================================================
1: JULY CORN
==================================================
CN5 O=1 HI=3 3/4 LO=0 1/4 CL=2 1/4

I guess the 217 support was too much for corn today as prices took off in a big way. It's easy to see that the grain markets are especially weather sensitive right now.

We're trading at the 50% retracement level so I think I'll give the market the day off tomorrow. Today's lower close doesn't fill me with a lot of confidence for buying tomorrow.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=25 HI=12 LO=25 CL=01

Nuts. Today's huge range in cotton had me kicking myself for not running the buy trade as well as the sell. As you remember we had the market pegged in a pennant; however since we were closer to the bottom end I only ran the sell order. Today's range makes it very difficult to know what to expect tomorrow. Think it's best to stand aside.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=30 HI=39 LO=90 CL=95

What's up with the Bean complex? Corn and grain took off today like wildfire and beans 'n cousins just fell flat. Running the same order for tomorrow, but if we see a break of support we'll look at selling Wednesday.
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=40 HI=25 LO=27.5 CL=12.5

Cattle rallied higher on a big opening gap today. This is usually indicative of prices have some upward momentum. We've got the contract highs nearby which should see prices give us some sort of reaction, so it's best to stand aside for tomorrow.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=95 HI=95 LO=83 CL=86

Cocoa inched closer to the 1475 support line today. This market is setting up nicely for a possible countertrend trade similar to one we did a few weeks ago. If we see a test of 1475 tomorrow with a favourable close near the high then we might just try that for Wednesday.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=24 HI=40 LO=23 1/2 CL=30 1/2

Yikes! What a wild day in the wheat market! Yeah, I know we were looking to sell wheat today, but remember I mentioned this market could be in transition...which is pretty obvious after today.

The good news is that we didn't get caught on the wrong side of the market and given the opening gap we would have had a hard time catching this trade (does this sound like sour grapes?) ;-)

Big day means tomorrow could be unpredictable, especially so close to a 50% retracement. I would think a lot of traders would be reassessing their positions, so a stall/pause could be in order.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=68 HI=93 LO=59 CL=81

Looks like the CD is going to call my bluff after giving us an early reaction to the 8150 resistance line. RSI has hooked as well, but it is a bit premature, which makes me a little nervous (not a lot, just a little).

Looking to sell tomorrow on a break of support. The US Dollar looks to be poised for a short term rally, so this should help put downward pressure on the Canadian currency.

*SELL June Canadian Dollar at 8054
*Stop 8071
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $170 per contract
*Profit Target: 7977
*Approximate Profit Potential: $770 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=1 HI=5 LO=5 CL=0.6

Bleech! What a horrible day in silver. I know something big is coming...but I just can't put my fingers on the right numbers. Right now I'm looking at 721 and 725 for support and of course 740 for resistance, but the market isn't giving me a clear entry signal so I still have to wait.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.935 HI=.94 LO=.88 CL=.91

The ED dipped a little lower today...not quite as low as we were looking, but it is getting closer. You can probably go ahead and put on the suggested trade for tomorrow. Remember it is a higher risk trade as rates may not find support; however we're working off a couple of good levels and the risk is reasonably small.

*BUY March Eurodollar at 95.8475
*Stop 95.7975
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 96.11
*Approximate Profit Potential: $650 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, April 21, 2005
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Hi Gang ... thank you for your indulging me the day off. Jill and Brian's wedding was truly one of the most elegant weddings I've seen in a very long time. It was actually just an excuse to go north and see my 2 youngest granddaughters, Sydney and Courtney. Jacki and I had not seen them for about 8 months and at 2 and 4 years old they need visits much more frequently than that. We'd planned to head home about 10 am Sunday but thanks to a faulty fuel pump in the old Benz we didn't get away until about 6 which got us home about 11pm ... bushed beyond my limits. Somehow road trips are a bit less enjoyable than they were just a few scant years ago.

I traded today and will cover those as well as laying out what I see for tomorrow and deeper into the week. Here we go, then.
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=4-08 HI=4-10 LO=3-31 CL=4-06

Some time back I wrote we'd see 114-00 but I doubted the markets ability to push much higher unless there was some news that either added to the thought that inflation was heating up or that it was very much under control. So far neither scenario has surfaced thus we find ourselves mired in a 1 point range. Last Monday we pegged the thermometer at 114-19 as the talking heads all were in agreement that inflation was so sedate that the Fed would not be tinkering with rates until probably the September or August meeting at the earliest. We ca expect more of the kinds os action which has prevailed the past 2 weeks. That would be narrow, relatively speaking, ranges and choppy within the -16/-00 triggers. This narrower range price flow is reminisient of the way Bonds were most days several years ago.

I'm going to launch an experiment the balance of this week. I'll be trading -08 and -24 as well as -00 and -16. My recommendation is that you let me be the guinea pig and you watch. If we have some success you may elect to join in. Let's get some data at my expense first. Continue with -00 and -16 and we'll see where the test goes.

Trdaing today was limited at best. I sold 1 at 114-07 and exited at 114-02 for 5 ticks. I bought 1 at 114-03 and waited out about an hour of uninspired sideways junk before we finally made some measureable advance. When we broke above -08 I rolled the stop to -07 and was immediately stopped out. That was essentially the plan. Having given myself permission to do the -08/-24 thing I didn't want it coming back much below -08 without answering the call to action. Out with 4 ticks. I bought -08 once more and was stopped out at -07 for a 1 tick loss. Net on the day 8 ticks, $250.

With the close at 114-06 I'll be focused on 114-08 and 114-00. You all will be looking at 114-00 and 114-16. With the increased array of entries for me comes a necessity for tighter management which will result in more B/E trades and more within 1-2 point rolls when profits are at stake.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.595 HI=.595 LO=.575 CL=.585

We retain our short position from Thursday. Stop is now 96.605 ... just shy of B/E. I hate those round, round numbers. This pegs the risk at $12.50. We press on into tomorrow. If I'm stopped out I'll resell 96.600 on the break.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=68 HI=93 LO=59 CL=81

I didn't like it right from the opening bell. I watched as we approached 8080 but it leaped over it too far for me to get comfortable with the buy. I just let it go its merry way today.

8080 is still the preferred level to my eye. I will take another stab at that level tomorrow. I will take it either way. You can go back to last weekend's TT for the stops and management numbers.

I will also look to buy a retest of the 8016/23 range. I will only buy here as it breaks back above 8023 or tests it with a poke below 8027. Should we slip above 8080 without an entry opportunity, I'll trade 8100 either way as well. Stops at 8093 on the buy and 8107 on the sell. Get this trade to break even on a move above 8111 on the buy and below 8091 on the sell.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=1.70 HI=7.80 LO=1.30 CL=7.00

Didn't give us any of the last set of numbers we pegged on Thursday. I'll trade any of the numbers from last week's TT plus what we added on Thursday last week. Thursday's comments are repeated below and are still valid.
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5: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=4.60 HI=6.30 LO=4.10 CL=5.80

Nothing for us again today. The only play is the 420/430 $10 channel.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.25 HI=.12 LO=.25 CL=.01

The short squeeze on the expiring month took everyone by surprise today. Today was FND on the May Contract with a lot of delivery notices. Some heavt buying of the physical was noted. Cotton is plentiful and there is no fundamental reason for a move of this magnitude. We might see some more delivery notices surface tomorrow which could bolster trade for another day or so. I look to see a pullback of sizable proportions as early as tomorrow.

I'm watching tomorrow except for one play ... I will sell a break below 55.50 with a tight stop ... 55.63.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=95 HI=95 LO=83 CL=86

We had a big gap down day on Friday in Cocoa. Funds AND small specs were bent on selling from Friday thru today. Volume lightened appreciatively today however and we saw a good bit of buying by the trade at 1492 down to the lows at 1483. Weather is good and the peace process in the Ivory Coast, the world's largest growing region.

If the peace process stays on track we'll probably see lower prices still. Some Cocoa watchers are saying 1200 is a real possibility. I did nothing today nor Friday, obviously. 1520 was blown away so easily on Friday. The chart shows us good reason for the volume to wane and prices pull up in the 1485 area.

I'll watch tomorrow looking for more structure to emerge at the current level before jumping on anything.
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8: JULY/MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.13 HI=2.15 LO=2.11 3/4 CL=2.13 1/4
CN5 O=2.21 HI=2.23 3/4 LO=2.20 1/4 CL=2.22 1/4

Friday is FND for May Corn. OI and volume have dropped off significantly. We'll begin trading JULY CORN tomorrow. Godd movement to the upside today as thoughts are circulating that despite a robust 30% planted number from USDA delays from the weather will show up in the next report.

I did nothing in May today. The gap open took us right into the teeth of the major resistance at 2.13. We made a move on 2.15 and then pulled back into the support, formerly resistance, at 2.13/2.13 1/2. On to JULY.

2.22 is roughly equivalent to 2.13 in the May. I will sell a break below 2.22 tomorrow with a very short stop ... 2.23 1/4. I will also sell a retest of 2.24 that fails with a stop at 2.25 1/4. I'll also buy a break above 2.24. I'm going to hang on to my scalper mentality a bit longer.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.13 1/2 HI=3.30 1/2 LO=3.13 CL=3.20 3/4
WN5 O=3.24 HI=3.40 LO=3.23 1/2 CL=3.30 1/2

Same story here as May Wheat marks FND on Friday. We'll likewise move to July in this market. A big move here as well today for mostly the same thinking. 2005 Crpo is 40% planted according to USDA but delays are expected to show up in the next report.

A 9 cent pullback near end of day in Wheat. I did nothing today and don;t anticipate I will tomorrow. I prefer to watch tomorrow. We'll have something on tap for Wednesday, I think.