Tuesday, April 26, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday 4-22-05

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Erich's Update for Friday, April 22, 2005
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Hot off the commodity presses to you!
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=7 3/4 HI=0 LO=7 1/4 CL=9 1/2

Corn is still tangling with the 220 resistance area today as prices failed to head much higher. RSI is beginning to dip a bit which might signal some profit taking, and a pullback, to come. That would be welcome as it would give us another chance to buy into this market...but not tomorrow.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=80 HI=83 LO=55 CL=44

Here we go again...cotton traded within yesterday's range and continued to stalemate us. Now we're going into Friday and looking at holding a trade over the weekend - not good.

I'll run both trades again tomorrow, but as you know I'm not a fan of trading cotton on a Friday. I would hope the entries are far enough away that we don't get tagged by a wandering market. In fact, if your order isn't filled by noon (EDT) consider pulling the trade as the market will get very thin after lunch.

*BUY July Cotton at 5603
*Stop 5553
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 5769
*Approximate Profit Potential: $830 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*SELL July Cotton at 5274
*Stop 5316
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $210 per contract
*Profit Target: 5063
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1055 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=80 HI=23 LO=80 CL=18

Got a reprieve from the Bean Oil market today as prices held support and traded higher. I'm inclined to bring stops up a bit; however this will increase the likelihood of getting stopped out tomorrow...but that may not be a bad thing going into the weekend.

If you are going to move your stops bring them to breakeven, or just a tick or two below, as this level showed good intraday support. Otherwise leave the stops alone and see if the market doesn't continue higher tomorrow.
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=45 HI=00 LO=25 CL=45

Boink! Told you the 8600 level was going to be important didn't I? ;-)

Cattle made a bit of a bounce off the 8600 resistance today. Nothing too substantial, but a bounce all the same. We've got the Cattle on Feed report out tomorrow so this will no doubt influence short term market direction.

While I would prefer to sell the market short (yes, I know it's countertrend) I will bracket the ranges of the last couple of days and trade the breakout side.

A word of caution: report days can be very unpredictable. It would be adviseable to watch the opening price. Ideally we want the market to open at a "reasonable" level - not too high or too low.

*BUY June Live Cattle at 8617
*Stop 8567
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 8767
*Approximate Profit Potential: $600 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*SELL June Live Cattle at 8512
*Stop 8552
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $160 per contract
*Profit Target: 8375
*Approximate Profit Potential: $560 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=58 HI=58 LO=37 CL=38

Today's price bar masks the turmoil that was today's cocoa market. Prices were all over the place testing resistance on the high and support on the low. It looks like we might have a good sell below today's low, but I think I'm going to pass for tomorrow as I suspect prices will try to get a little closer to the RSI trendline.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=20 1/2 HI=22 1/2 LO=18 3/4 CL=0 3/4

Rather indecisive day for the wheat market as prices traded within yesterday's range. Notice how the market reinforced the support at 319 again? We could look at selling the market below here tomorrow, but it is Friday, so I think I'll pass. If prices do head lower we should get another kick at this cat around 310.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=55 HI=99 L=48 CL=80

Same song and dance as yesterday. The market continues in pullback mode even though we saw nearly the same range as yesterday. Nothing here until we see the reaction to resistance. I've still got my eye on 8150, but we'll see.
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=3.5 HI=4.5 LO=9 CL=1.7

Interesting that silver gave another hit on 719 support today. RSI is hooking lower and we will likely see prices fall off tomorrow. I'm looking for support at 707 from where we will consider taking a long position...at least that's the plan right now.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.995 HI=.01 LO=.90 CL=.915

The ED did as we hoped today and fell off a bit. Rates aren't quite to the 9585 support level yet, which is where we're going to get serious about buying again.

Nothing new for tomorrow.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, April 21, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=4-00 HI=4-04 LO=3-09 CL=3-14

Our first opportunity came on a sell of 113-28. After 4 attempts to take it lower and failing I chose to exit. Out at -22 for 6 ticks. I then bought 1 at 113-22. I exited this trade at 114-01. Once we broke above 114-03 I did not want to be long and see a break back below 114-00. Banked 11 ticks on this one. I missed the big move of the day. I tried but it just fell away too quickly. I bought 1 at 113-21 and got crushed. The stop was at 113-19 and I was stopped at 113-15 for a 6 tick loss. I sold -14 and stopped at -15 losing 1 more. Next up we sold 1 at -15 and this one eas stopped at -11 for a plus 4. I pulled the plug at that point. Never had a feel, never had a rhythm. Net on the day, 14 ticks, $437.

The close at 113-14 leaves right on the line. Before selling, we need to a higher trade, a failure and then we'll go for the sell at the numbers. Focus is 113-16, 113-00 and 114-00.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.605 HI=.610 LO=.575 CL=.585

I sold one at 96.600 today. The stop is at 96.615. .520 is the target but, I'd be happy with .540. If we break .580, I'll roll the stop to B/E.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=55 HI=99 LO=52 CL=80

I bought 8082 and got stopped at 8086. I'd rolled to 8091 as we touched 8097. Got a little sliparoo there.

All the numbers from Weekend TT again tomorrow.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=6.50 HI=1.30 LO=5.70 CL=0.80

We're getting there. 586.20 has become a suspect. Tomorrow I will buy a failed retest of 586.20 or I will sell a break below it. Stop is tight, 586.70 on the sell and 585.70 on the buy. Once it gets going in our direction I'll loosen up the management a bit allowing the stop to trail about $150 back. I will also buy a break above 601.40 or sell a break below 600.30. Stops are 600.70 on the sell and 600.70 on the buy.
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5: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=5.20 HI=6.80 LO=3.60 CL=4.40

Nothing for us again today. Same strategies and numbers from TT weekend again tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.80 HI=.83 LO=.55 CL=.44

Nothing for us. Same numbers from Tuesday's update.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=58 HI=58 LO=37 CL=38

Nothing done here. We spent most of the day wallowing around in the 1550/1540 trough.

Same numbers and reasoning as discussed in TT weekend.
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8: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.09 1/2 HI=2.11 1/2 LO=2.09 CL=2.11 1/4

None of our numbers showed up. We'll play it the same way tomorrow.

I need a break above 2.12 1/2 in order to buy. 2.11 1/4 is the stop. A break below 2.09 is a sell with a 2.10 1/4 stop.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.10 1/2 HI=3.12 1/2 LO=3.08 3/4 CL=3.11

Still hiding from us. We'll see it again, I betcha ... be patient. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.
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