Thursday, April 14, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Thursday, 4-14-05

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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, April 14, 2005
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Subscribers got these on yesterday evening - Test Drivers are getting theirs this morning. If you'd like to get yours up front and on time, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Erich won't be back home til April 15th, and won't be doing any Daily Updates or Big Weekend Edition until then.
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=2-24 HI=3-04 LO=2-10 CL=2-19

We got off a couple of trades today. We first sold 112-28 after the opening flurry. We rode it to -19 and got stopped at -22 for 6. After the market climbed back to 112-31, we sold again at 112-28. We were stopped out at 112-18 for 10 ... total of 16 ticks on the day. I said 15 in the webinar tonight when we talked Bonds. I had the entry and exit right, I just can't add and subtract. Sorry Steve, we tied ... lol.

The close at 112-19 sets up 113-00 and 112-16 again tomorrow.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.520 HI=.540 LO=.520 CL=.535

There was the bounce, boys and girls. I remain short from 96.540. Did you join me? A nice failure right on the line. Same plays tomorrow if you aren't already with us.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=89 HI=12 LO=78 CL=84

Goose eggs again in the CD today. The good news is ... or could be ... we dropped down into an area containing a good amount of structure to read. I'll sell a break of 8080 tomorrow with a very tight stop at 8083. I don't want it coming backabove 80 whilst I'm still short. The roll to B/E comes at 8071 and the target is 8040. We'll start squeezing the trade below 50.

I will aslo buy a move above 8080 IF we FIRST move lower, fail and then go higher. The max fill I'll settle for is 8085. The B/E hits at 8089 and the target is 8180. There is a good amount of intervening resistance between this entry and the target so me must protect with tight rolls at 8100, 8120, 40 and 60.

I'll also buy a test and failure to punch lower at 8040 with a stop at 8037 and a B/E roll at 47. Th etarget is still 8180. Use the numbers above plus 8060 for roll targets.

When we are faced with markets like this ... bunches of support and resistance and uniform levels ... here they are about every 20 points ... the risk of getting whipsawed is very great. To combat this we want to do 2 things. First limit our trading to ONLY the strongest of the S&R lines or ranges and second, use tighter even than normal stops and roll agressively.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=4.50 HI=4.80 LO=2.20 CL=3.50

I watched a bit after the window opened and then sold 613.10. I was stopped out at 612.40 fot $70. I then sold 612.90. This trade was stopped out at 611.60 for $130. Next in line was a sell at 612.70. I managed to ride this one down to 609.10 for $360. That ended the day for us. The nice moves that followed escaped us.

For tomorrow, we'll play all the same numbers plus we'll add a buy on a break above 604 or subsequent retests accompanied by failures to push lower.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5

The Dow is being retired as of yesterday. I will no longer follow this market.
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6: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=9.80 HI=1.50 LO=8.80 CL=1.00

We just needed a bit lower on that post open run south and I would have bought it off the 428 support. Wasn't to be. We finally got a confirmation of the 430/440 channel but it was too late in the day to be traded. Patience.

$10 channel and 428 for tomorrow.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.00 HI=.85 LO=.90 CL=.22

One more day of May trading. I will move to July on Friday for absolute sure.

Nothing today as we slipped south pretty dramatically.

Kinda' marginal, but I will sell a failed retest of 51.50 tomorrow. The stop is at 51.69 with a roll to B/E at 51.41. The target is 49.00. Protect the trade profits every 25 points on the move lower. Do not let the proposition risk more than 30 points of accumulated profits ever and never more than 15 at each of the 25 point roll triggers.

I will buy a break above 51.50 with a stop at 51.43 at most. The buy requires us to play only the top 25% of structure on the chart. Extra careful and tight on the buy. I'll still keep my eye on the taller numbers cited Monday for Tuesday's trade.
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8: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=80 HI=89 LO=73 CL=81

NOW TRADING JULY CONTRACT

Nothing at our numbers today. Same deal for tomorrow.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.06 1/4 HI=2.06 1/4 LO=2.03 3/4 CL=2.05 3/4

I bought 2.04. This might have been pushing the envelope of the 2.03 support. It just felt right. I have the stop at 2.05 1/4 and am holding overnight.
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10: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.09 1/2 HI=3.13 1/2 LO=3.09 CL=3.10 1/4

We got two shots at 3.10 area trades. One too early, one too late. Play the same numbers from Monday again tomorrow.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday, 4-13-05

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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, April 13, 2005
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Erich won't be back home til April 15th, and won't be doing any Daily Updates or Big Weekend Edition until then.

Subscribers got these on Tuesday evening - Test Drivers get theirs somewhat after the fact. If you'd like to get yours up front and on time, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=1-28 HI=2-31 LO=1-19 CL=2-25

Wow ... a very strange day, indeed. EVERYBODY was on pins and needles awaiting the release of the FOMC minutes. I'm not sure I have ever seen a market so wrapped up in anticipation for a report release.

I sold one at -28 and was stopped out at 23 for 5 ticks, $156. Sold again at -28, stopped at -30 for a 2 tick loss. Which, by the way included a run down to 111-19. It was so fast I didn't have a chance to react and lock up some profits. I had the chance to buy 112-04 and passed. I was never comfortable with the Bonds all day. Soooo much talk about the FOMC minutes, volume was extremely light and we'd just moved into the final hour. If you took it you had a good shot at 20 points plus from the strategy. If not, we'll comiserate on leaving about $600 on the table. There WILL be another day, I promise:)

The close at 112-25 leaves setting up on 113-00 and 112-16 for tomorrow.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.505 HI=.520 LO=.490 CL=.510

It was NOT a down day so I left the stop "as is". The plan for tomorrow remains the same ... We remain short this market from 96.540 with our stop at 96.555. I will role it to 96.525 IF we get a down day tomorrow.

Those looking to initiate a trade in this market need to wait for another bounce to .540 or a break of .500.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=11 HI=15 LO=55 CL=92

Nothing for us today. Play the same numbers from yesterday's update and add a buy on a failed retest of 8040. The stop is 8037 with a break even roll 47. The target is up at 8160-8180.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=8.80 HI=5.70 LO=1.40 CL=4.20

I watched but all my numbers were avoided until pretty deep into the day. By then I tired of the watching the market play zoom, zoom and I just moved on to see what other trades might surface.

For tomorrow, we'll play all the same numbers.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5

The Dow is being retired as of yesterday. I will no longer follow this market.
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6: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=1.20 HI=2.40 LO=8.30 CL=9.30

I used the failure at 428 support to buy one at 428.60. and with no where to go as end of session approached I exited at 429.40 for $80.

$10 channel and 428 for tomorrow.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.90 HI=.30 LO=.75 CL=.00

It's still May for the moment but July is edging up there. Cotton missed all our numbers today. I'll play the same numbers tomorrow.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=45 HI=60 LO=30 CL=55
CON5 O=68 HI=84 LO=55 CL=81

They did cross today so we are done with May and will trade July tomorrow.

The drop, which I could get sold, and quick rebound put me off the sell immediately. I bought 42 and on the failure at 57 I bailed at 53 for $110.

For tomorrow in JULY COCOA I will sell a break below 1555 with a stop at 61. the target is 1500 so tight management again is called for. I need to see a break of 1600 to buy.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.06 1/2 HI=2.07 LO=2.05 CL=2.06 3/4

They did get us out in the overnight at 2.07 3/4 as it touched 2.08 for 4 1/4 cents, $212.

Tomorrow, we will buy a failed retest of 2.03 with a stop at 2.02 1/4. Protective rolls at 2.05, 2.07 and 2.09. I will NOT buy the very obvious break above 2.07. We are scalpers.
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10: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.14 HI=3.15 1/2 LO=3.09 1/2 CL=3.11

I sold 3.14 1/2 and I'm out at 3.10 1/4 for 4 1/4 cents, $212. All the same numbers for tomorrow that we discussed yesterday.

Traders Helping Traders Dily Update for Tuesday, 4-12-05

Subscribers got these on Monday evening - Test Drivers get theirs somewhat after the fact. If you'd like to get yours up front and on time, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, April 12, 2005
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Erich and I really enjoyed the live venue. What an extraordinary group of guys showed up. There was so much more we wanted to do. Despite the fact we covered a lot of ground, there was still a lot left undone. All the better for the groups that follow. Erich and I learned an awful lot as well and definitely have a list of things we could have done better. Please bear with me as I get back into the saddle. Trust me when I tell you we left nothing in the locker room this weekend ... it all made it on the field.

Erich won't be back home til April 15th, and won't be doing any Daily Updates or Big Weekend Edition until then.

I am now so pumped to do the next seminar. We'll get to work on the planning as soon as Erich returns from a little battery recharging. The only markets I traded today was the bonds and Corn. We'll review those two and get a plan going for the rest of our usual suspects for tomorrow.
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=1-15 HI=2-06 LO=1-13 CL=1-27

I bought 1 at 111-19. Brought it to B/E as we broke -23. As we touched -06, I rolled to -03 and was nailed right there. I'm out with 16 ticks, $500. By the time we got around to -28 we were showing lots of green and we were inside the final hour.

For tomorrow, the close at 111-27 has us fixed on either 112-00 or 111-16 as the playground. To sell off 112-00 we first must see an advance from -27 toward 112-00 and then a failure.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.510 HI=.515 LO=.505 CL=.510

We remain short this market from 96.540 with ur stop at 96.555. I will role it to 96.525 IF we get a down day tomorrow.

Those looking to iniiate a trade in this market need to wait for another bounce to .540 or a break of .500.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=46 HI=56 LO=92 CL=03

I'm struggling a bit with this chart in light of the 8103 close. At first look I thought, "oh cool" right at 8100. After spending a little more time tearing it apart I'm not sure 8100 is a cool number. Usually big fat round ones like 8100, 8200, 8000 have readily apparent power and some extra stuff just by virtue of their psychological clout. The last time we were in this neighborhood ... Feb and March ... the market didn't show this level much love in the context of respecting S&R. Why would it now? I noticed too that 8200 didn't fair too well in the treatment dept just before we left that are to head here. I'm not gonna' pound on squares when the holes be round. I will play the cautious route.

Here we go ... The most interesting trade is to sell a move back testing 8140 to 8160. Any failure that occurs above 55 can be sold with a stop just above 8160 ... say 8163. That puts risk at about $80. Any failure that occurs below 55 ... you must wait for it to break 40 before selling and the stop is at 47 max - I'll probably throw mine in at 43. At 47 the risk is $100 or a tad less; at 43 it hopefully will be $60 max. B/E roll on the 55 and over comes on a break of 50. Off the break of 40 the roll is 32/33. The target on both of these is 8040 for RRR in the range of 10 or 12 to 1. You gotta' do additional rolls at 8120, 8100 and 8080.

I'll buy a break above 8160 with a stop at 8153 for risk of $100 or less. Roll to B/E at 8168. Additional rolls come at 8180, 8200, 8210. The target is the S7R range at 8223/8211 ... grab it and run anywhere in there.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=0.80 HI=2.90 LO=6.90 CL=8.20

We built up an pretty decent array of numbers over the prior 2 weeks of trading. They remain the prefered plays from my perspective. All the numbers from last two week's retain their validity. Any time we see 640, 636, 630-629 range, 626, 622/620, 616, 613 or 607 we'll play them either way EXCEPT 607 ... this is a buy only. The numbers have enough space between them so that the next one below will be the target for any sell and next above the target for any sells.

You can set up to grab it with limit orders in front of the arrival there or you can manage to and thru them by rolling stops very tight on approach. I will probably opt to use limits in the majority of cases on the belief the market will "wrassle" around the number long enough to allow me to initiate longs or shorts at the appropriate level after exiting. If we start getting shut out of a bunch that continue in the original trade direction we'll adjust and rely more on tight rolls and abandon the limit exits. By a bunch I think I mean 3 or so.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5

The Dow is being retired as of today. I will no longer follow this market.
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6: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=1.20 HI=1.70 LO=9.80 CL=0.40

$10 channel and 428 ... that's my story and I'm stickin' to it.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.60 HI=.70 LO=.65 CL=.27

We're back looking to sell a failure at 54.00 or 54.50 and that's all. If the run comes and the failure happens at 54.35 or better you can sell with a stop at 54.53 ... or .57 if it happens closer to .50. Roll it to B/E as it breaks 30. If the failure occurs at less than 54.35 wait until the break of 54.00 to sell with a stop at 54.11 or .13. roll to B/E at 53.91. The target is 50.60/70. We'll roll at 53.00, 52.50, 52.00, 51.60, and 51.00. In between rolls keep the periodic RRR in close check.

I'm tempted to sell a retest and subsequent failure at 53.50 to 53.65 as well. It is marginal with only about 6 hits on it's resume. I'll watch and if I like what I see I'll go for it with a stop at 53.67 if the failure gives me a fill at 53.50 or higher. If the failure will only support a fill of 53.40 to 53.49 then I'll place my stop at 53.53 or .57. The B/E roll comes in at 53.40. Target and rolls are the same as above.

Sometime this week I will roll out to July contract. We still have just 2 weeks to FND but May OI and Volume is dropping and July is on the rise. I'll go on the cross.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=70 HI=72 LO=36 CL=40
O=92 HI=92 LO=58 CL=63

I'm going to trade May one more day and then roll out to July. The OI and Volume probably crossed over today and FND is on Monday, the 18th.

I will sell a break below 1540 with a 43 stop for hopefully no more than $50-60 at risk. Roll the B/E at 1532. The target is only 1500 so something less than $400 is available as potential profit. There is no alternative. If you take this you manage tight, tight, tight.

If we drop a bit and rebound I'll buy as we break above 1540 with a stop at 1537 and a roll to B/E at 1547. The target is 1640-60. Start squeezing at 35 and see what you can make of it. I will also play 1580 if we sail right on up there. I'll buy a break out above 1586 with a stop at 1581 or I'll sell a retest and failure as it breaks below 1575 with a stop at 1579. Same targets as the 1540 trades. Rolls on any sell are 1530, 1520 and 1510 add 1540 and 1560 on the 1580 sell.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.03 3/4 HI=2.06 LO=2.03 CL=2.05 3/4

I bought 2.03 1/2 with a stop at 2.02 1/4. I'd pretty much decided to hold it overnight when near end of day it popped almost 2 cents. The stop is at B/E and we are climbing in the night. Now the stop is 2.05 1/4. I also have a profit taker working at 2.08.

My thoery on this is if we get to 2.08 we'll have had to break 2 more significant resistance areas. I think that 'll be about as ggod as they can do right now. and I'll get back in while the market plays a while getting up the fuel to slay 2.09. If you didn't pick up 1 today on a carry over of Thursday's writing I would suggest you look to sell a faied test of 2.08 or wait until a break above 2.10 to buy one.
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10: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.12 HI=3.14 LO=3.08 3/4 CL=3.13 1/2

For tomorrow I have 3 alternative trades. I will buy a failed retest of 3.10 with a penny and a half back stop and a B/E roll at 3.11 1/4. The target is 3.17 1/2 but I will start a serious squeeze at 3.15.

I will sell a failed test of 3.15 with a stop back a penny and a half and B/E roll at 3.14. The target is 3.10. Not much here at only a nickel of profit target so you need to be on your toes with the management. The last trade is the buy the break above 3.17 1/2 or sell a failed retest there. Penny and a half stops both ways.