Friday, April 08, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday 4-8-05

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Erich's Update for Friday, April 8, 2005 ==================================================

Hi All, Tom here. I'm pinch-hitting for Erich whilst he makes his way south. I'm going to write this as I think Erich would ... not necessarily from my perspective. If you read us both, I might say some things here I would not say over on my side and vice versa. This is not an easy task filling in for smarter partner. As proof positive of that fact, I'm here writing while he enjoys a road trip, need I say more?
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=7 HI=7 1/4 LO=5 1/4 CL=5 1/2

We opened just above 207, but more importantly just below our entry target at 207 3/4. Technically, we shouldn't be in the short trade. If you thought the bounce to 207 1/4 was close enough and sold 207 that's fine. We settled at 205 1/2 so you have some small profit to manage. It does not bode well that the market replicated the low AND the close from Tuesday and I'd suggest a roll of the stop to atleast B/E to protect tomorrow. Actually, if you did sell it, I would have preferred you were out taking the scalp profit and be flat for tomorrow. If you didn't get in the trade ... no worries. I wouldn't do antything tomorrow until I have a clear sense the market has digested the report and the dust has settled.

Monday will be quiet behind the report,I think, so not the normal fear of a weekend hold if that's your thing.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=25 HI=00 LO=10 CL=22
Little gap opened was avoided by opening range technology. From there we climbed almost 100 points to top out at 5300 dashing any hope of a short trade. We'll wait for Erich's return for any new trades in Cotton.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=00 HI=15 LO=65 CL=68

Opening range considerations kept us away from the trade notwithstanding our target entry's availability. I'd be flat for tomorrow, again, until the report dust settles. Then I might go after this trade.

*BUY May Bean Oil at 2311
*Stop 2279
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $192 per contract
*Profit Target: 2438
*Approximate Profit Potential: $762 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=55 HI=05 LO=40 CL=42

More weakness today has our long scenario looking less likely. Let's take that one off the table and we'll await Erich's return for guidance.
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=48 HI=74 LO=30 CL=52

All shorts should have been stopped out today ... probably at 1574 for about a $200 loss. On the later in the day move lower we again got a shot at selling 1554. It looked very promising for awhile until it snapped back to settle at 1552. I'd be awaiting Erich's return before looking to initiate anything in Cocoa.
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=15 HI=16 1/2 LO=13 CL=14 1/4

A virtual replay of yesterday's range. Nothing near our price level of interest. We could certainly look at the same numbers from yesterday as a play for tomorrow. Again, ONLY AFTER the report has been absorbed and the dust has settled.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=13 HI=18 LO=76 CL=83

Still apropos ... I'm going to let Erich's comments from yesterday stand ...

[YAWN!] Time to poke some fun at the Canadian Dollar so this market smartens up and goes somewhere! Rates are still hovering around the 8200 line, but I'm not interested in shorting until we get a test of 8150. Likewise I'm holding out for a test of 8356 before we look at buying again. In the meantime expect more of this mindless chop.
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=4 HI=7.5 L=p6 CL=7.5

Wednesday's advance was almost completely retraced today. Interestingly, it did break the upper trend line before failing significantly. I don't see anything to do in here.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.775 HI=.805 LO=.73 CL=.74

We made an attempt to test higher resistance today. Didn't get to .840 however, so we are still flat and watching.
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10: WILD CARD - MAY BEAN MEAL
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SMK5 O=8.2 HI=8.7 LO=6.8 CL=8.3

We made our entry target at 187.90. We got to 187.0 but then bounced near day's end. It didn't get high enough to stop us out ... close though. We settled at 188.30. I'd have my stop working over night. I think I want to get flat before the report tomorrow. We'll see if the stop gets hit tonight.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, April 8, 2005
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Here we are on the eve of Erich's and my first live trading workshop. I'm really looking forward to this. We've really prepared what I hope will be a great weekend for all. Monday at the forum should be very interesting ... a little like getting the reviews of the play's opening. Somebody say "Break a leg"!

Most likely, I will not trade today due to the press of workshop tasks. Maybe a little bonds or Russell in the morning. Good luck to all of you, however.
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=1-27 HI=2-07 LO=1-04 CL=1-11

I'm going to consider today an omen as regards the Workshop. Nice day, if I do say so myself.

Actually, today was a total surprise to me. I expected I'd get no chance to trade. I knew the reports were going to be very bearish for the bonds and thought the reaction would be much swifter and more dramatic than turned out. It was actually quite smooth with a very measured pace to it.

The day started with a move lower but I couldn't get it bought down there. If I could have bought 111-21 or -22, I would have. An opportunity to buy the break above 112-00 materialized but it was so weak once we hit there I never got a shot at buying at my numbers. We sold 111-28 and then it really started gathering steam. We breezed right thru 111-16, touched -09, rolled the stop to -11 and we were out ... with 17 ticks, $531.

It was basically over for the day. It did give us a little peak at an opportunity to sell -14 but no shot at executing it. I was happy, happy regardless.

The close at 111-11 has us fixed on 111-16 or 111-00. I expect tomorrows jobs report to possibly contain some info that could drive Bonds further south. Nothing before tomorrow's report ... let the dust settle BEFORE doing anything.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.525 HI=.540 LO=.520 CL=.520

I sold 96.540. I have my stop at 96.555. If we can withstand tomorrow we might have a shot at something here.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=93 HI=18 LO=68 CL=93

A gap up on the open returned us to the 8223/8211 range ... thank you very much. I sold one at 8207. On the break of 8200 as suggested in TT , I rolled the stop to B/E. They came and got us. Out at B/E. I then sold 8209. This one was stopped at 8201 for $80. It never gave us an opportunity to re-enter before seeking out the lows of the day at 8176. Very frustrating.

The close at 8183 leaves us sitting right on our other preferred number, 8180. Same TT numbers and 8180 again tomorrow.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=8.70 HI=2.90 LO=4.40 CL=1.50

I started the day buying 616.40 and getting stopped out at B/E. I then sold 615.80 and was stopped again at B/E. I then bought 616.20 and caught a flyer. Out at 620.30 for $410. Next up I sold 621.90. and was stopped out at 620.20 for $170. I sold 619.90 for a B/E trade and then folded my tent and disappeared.

We'll play the full array of numbers tomorrow.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5 O=522 HI=578 LO=491 CL=574

Again, I had too much on my plate and opted to forego the Dow. Numbers were there to trade per TT. Looks like a sell of 105o5 break would have been a B/E or small profit depending on how you managed. Looks like a subsequent buy on the break above 10510 would have been a relatively easy exit right around the bottom edge of the target ... 10560 ... should have made 40-50 points, $200-$250. You then could have sold off the break below 60 and picked up a small winner ... 20-30 points. Then a buy on the break above 10540 for another 20-30. Wearin' me out.

All the same numbers from TT guidance for tomorrow if you're inclined.
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6: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=9.20 HI=0.50 LO=8.10 CL=8.40

I did 2 buys on retest of 428 and was B/E on both. Enough all ready. I buttoned it up early. We showed some weakness late in the day but 428 still held. Clue for tomorrow? We'll see.

$10 channel and 428 just as we outlined in TT is the play for Tuesday.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.25 HI=.00 LO=.10 CL=.22

Nothing at our numbers today. TT numbers rule tomorrow.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=48 HI=74 LO=30 CL=52

I sold 1557 and out at 1538. Not bad given what the day was like in other trading. We captured $190.

Same TT numbers for tomorrow. I will also buy a retest of 1520 should we go there. It needs to get within 25 and fail ... then go. Given the 1552 close we should have some action here at out numbers.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.07 HI=2.07 1/4 LO=2.05 1/4 CL=2.05 1/2

No reason to change what I wrote yestrday ... Nothing at either end of our numbers today. I'll play them again tomorrow. I'm still scalping.
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10: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.15 HI=3.16 1/2 LO=3.13 CL=3.14 1/4

Darn near a reply of the range from yesterday. Still nothing for us, however.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Updare for Thursday 4-7-05

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Erich's Update for Thursday, April 7, 2005
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Hi All, Tom here. I'm pinch-hitting for Erich whilst he makes his way south. I'm going to write this as I think Erich would ... not necessarily from my perspective. If you read us both, I might say some things here I would not say over on my side and vice versa. This is not an easy task filling in for the smarter partner. As proof positive of that fact, I'm here writing while he enjoys a road trip, need I say more?

Message from the "Big E" ...

"I'm making my way to Cal-i-for-ni-a tomorrow for our weekend seminar so Tom will be following up on my nightly updates for the remainder of this week. Remember there will be no scheduled updates from Erich for the week of April 11 - 15. I'll try to give you some updates during my travels, but finding an internet connection on the road can be a little sketchy so I'm not promising anything. Shaggy will extend your membership by a week to make up for the inconvenience. See you when I get back! -Erich."
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=6 1/2 HI=8 1/4 LO=6 CL=7 1/4

Opened with a gap back up. Wallowed around all day until the very end. We then went on a little ride up which caught our breakeven roll. Th eroll was the right move I think. If you didn't roll and are still in I'd recommend rolling tomorrow if we get ant apprciable movement to the south. If you got stopped out today at B/E I'd look for an opportunity to re-establish the short trade as detailed originally.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=60 HI=00 LO=25 CL=88

We got the test of 5170 Erich was seeking. Little more than a test as we broke it pretty good. It bounced back strongly near end of day. Let's examine action tomorrow before doing anything. The rebound from the day's low lessens the short desire a bit. We'll look at it tomorrow.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=90 HI=03 LO=85 CL=86

Another bang on 2300 and a failure. Are we building energy for the launch or is 2300 this market's Kryptonite? We'll stay with the same trade rec from yesterday.

*BUY May Bean Oil at 2311
*Stop 2279
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $192 per contract
*Profit Target: 2438
*Approximate Profit Potential: $762 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=20 HI=35 LO=50 CL=52

Tell the truth gang, I'm a little confused on this one. I think there might have been a typo. in any event, we were solidly down in today's trade. We'll go with the trade Erich had up yesterday and see what shakes out tomorrow.

*BUY June Live Cattle at 8482
*Stop 8437
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 8630
*Approximate Profit Potential: $590 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=25 HI=70 LO=10 CL=58

We gapped below Erich's entry point for the day. Those short from yesterday were looking very good until the last 10 minutes when we shot up to 1570. It threatened us but the stop should have held up keeping us short from Tuesday's entry. e are now right back at the number so take a look back at Tuesday's guidance and look for the opportunity to enter tomorrow. Those still short ... we'll see what is dealt to us tomorrow.
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=13 1/4 HI=16 3/4 LO=13 CL=14 1/4

Hopefully all stops were rolled to protect the profits accumulated. All stops up to 316 3/4 would resulted in an exit today with a nice per contract profit. We have a big report coming out Friday. I think I might bask in the glory of our winning trade and see what shakes out Friday. If I felt I had to do something tomorrow I might be interest in selling a break below 312 1/4 with a stop at 315 1/4 looking for 302 as a target.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=93 HI=18 LO=68 CL=93

I'm going to let Erich's comments from yesterday stand ...

[YAWN!] Time to poke some fun at the Canadian Dollar so this market smartens up and goes somewhere! Rates are still hovering around the 8200 line, but I'm not interested in shorting until we get a test of 8150. Likewise I'm holding out for a test of 8356 before we look at buying again. In the meantime expect more of this mindless chop.
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=5 HI=5.5 LO=3.5 CL=2

The trend line test did materialize as Erich speculated yesterday. Still not enough power to pop above though. We touched it and turned south. We'll watch again tomorrow as we just don't have enought evidence to discern the direction yet. The pennant is narrowing so it won't be long until we see a resolution.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.76 HI=.77 LO=.75 CL=.76

I think we continue on the watch for 95.84
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10: WILD CARD - MAY BEAN MEAL
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SMK5 O=4.8 HI=7.9 LO=4.3 CL=6.6

We popped up another 2 and a half bucks today clearly testing the 188/189 resistance. Another retest there tommorow might be a nice short. We need to see a move back above 188 and then sell has it comes back to break it. I would eye 189.30 as a fair stop. 182 is a likely target.

*SELL May Bean Meal at 187.90
*Stop 189.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $140 per contract
*Profit Target: 182
*Approximate Profit Potential: $600 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, April 7, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=1-20 HI=2-00 LO=1-20 CL=1-25

Little ranges are very frustrating. It gets difficult to resist the temptation to take chances and push things along a bit. Fight the temptation ... this too shall pass.

I bought 1 at 111-22. From there we made a pretty text book climb to 111-31. The next candle after we hit -31 clearly showed we were out of gas ... I jumped out at 111-29 for 7 ticks, $218. I thought we might replicate the previous 2 days and went right back in short at 111-28. Not to be. Even though it climbed up to 112-00 it kept doing it with red candles. I probably should have bailed on the trade at 111-30 or 31 but I stayed in using the red candles as my excuse. It finally did break and made it to 25. I rolled the stop to -27 and was stopped there for 1 tick. I sold -28 again only to be stopped at 27 again for 1 tick. I moved on.

The close at -25 has us looking for trades either way off 112-00 or 111-16.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.515 HI=.530 LO=.515 CL=.520

Yet another yawner ... We're getting a good level of S&R at .52/.53. If we test into that range tomorrow and fail , I'm going to sell one with a 96.535 stop.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=93 HI=18 LO=68 CL=93

Sold 1 at 8178 on the break of 8180. Stopped at B/E. I bought 1 at 8182. I was stopped out at 8195. Sort of the reverse of yesterday's theory. Once ABOVE 8200 I didn't like the prospect of it getting below it after the fact. Out with $130.

We went to 8218 and turned south. I could have sold one on the break of 8211 per TT and made a little. It was too close to end of day to be comfortable. I passed. The close at 8193 leaves us idle until 8180 or a return to the 8223/8211 range is revisited.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=7.00 HI=3.20 LO=6.60 CL=8.10

When the window opened we were cruisin along about 619 going nowhere. It broke sharply from there, getting down to 617.70/80. That unfortunately was not in the array of numbers. I bought 622.40 and was stopped out at 621.70 for a $70 loss. I then bought 622.20 and rolled to B/E when we touched 623 ... out at 622.20, B/E. Next up, I sold 619.90 and I got stopped out at 618.30 making $160. I then sold 619.60 and was stopped at 617.70 where I'd rolled my stop when we touched 617. It was getting late in the session and I didn't want to be around looking at 18 anything. Out with $190. Net we took 'em for $280.

We'll play the full array of numbers tomorrow.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5 O=486 HI=544 LO=486 CL=522

I was too busy with the Russell again and just let this slide. All the same numbers from TT guidance for tomorrow if you're inclined.
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6: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=6.70 HI=9.60 LO=6.30 CL=9.20

I bought 1 at 428.10 and exited at 429.20 for $110. $10 channel and 428 just as we outlined in TT is the play for Tuesday.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.60 HI=.00 LO=.25 CL=.88

I sold 51.55 on a nice fill scenario ...lot of good it did. Out at B/E. Sold again at 51.47 and got stopped out at 51.50 for a $25 loss. That ws it for me.
TT numbers rule tomorrow.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=70 HI=77 LO=53 CL=55

The gap down put us below all our numbers ... until late in the day. Too late for me. Same TT numbers for tomorrow. I will also buy a retest of 1520 shopuld we go there. It needs to get within 25 and fail ... then go.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.06 1/4 HI=2.08 1/4 LO=2.06 CL=2.07 1/4

Nothing at either end of our numbers today. I'll play them again tomorrow. I'm still scalping.
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10: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3 13 1/2 HI=3.16 3/4 LO=3.13 CL=3.14 1/4

Gap up never let us see 3.10. That's still my one and only number. Check that. I will buy a break above 3.17 1/2; I will sell a failed test of that price. Penny and half stops either side. 3.10 is the target on the sell; 3.30 on the buy.