Wednesday, April 06, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Tuesday 3-5-05

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Market Update for Tuesday, April 5, 2005
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Subscribers got these on Monday night, Test Drivers get theirs after the fact. To get yours fresh and algae free, please go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html.

Erich will be on the road to California from tomorrow onwards for THT's first ever live seminar, so our Tom will be doing all the Daily Updates for the duration. Enjoy!

"To win you have to risk loss." - Jean-Claude Killy
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=0 HI=1 3/4 LO=9 1/2 CL=9 3/4

The 209 line continued to give corn trouble today. The market failed to head lower price-wise but RSI did hook and dip a little lower. Running with the weekend plan for tomorrow. I want to make doubly sure the market is heading lower before selling.

*SELL May Corn at 207 3/4
*Stop 210 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 199 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $425 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=80 HI=20 LO=30 CL=60

A "nowhere" day for cotton today as prices didn't test resistance or support. I'm a cautious bear in this market and would hope to see prices fall off tomorrow before selling. I'd like to see a test of 5170 which would give us a good level to sell from. Otherwise a rally to the resistance at 5460 could get me thinking long...but not because I want to.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=53 HI=05 LO=48 CL=80

Not the most encouraging session today in bean oil as prices confirmed resistance and support. Still hoping to see prices fall off and test the 2220 support line, but we'll have to see what the market gives us.
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O=92.5 HI=20 LO=55 CL=77.5

Not the way I wanted to start the week as cattle prices traded barely high enough to find our order before packing it in and heading lower. Things continue to look bearish for tomorrow, but I normally don't trade a market after a losing day, so I think I'll sit this one out. You might want to look at the June contract, it's trading from a slightly stronger support level.
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=60 HI=95 LO=60 CL=88

Cocoa traded marginally higher today as prices reacted a bit to the 1560 support line as well as the big decline from the week before. Look for prices to trade a little higher tomorrow before we get another selling opportunity.

I'll be running the weekend trade - just in case.

*SELL May Cocoa at 1554
*Stop 1576
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 1487
*Approximate Profit Potential: $670 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=20 HI=23 LO=15 CL=16 1/2

Good day for those of you who took the wheat trade from last week as prices easily found our first profit target, banking us about $525 per contract. From here prices continued lower still, which was a bit of a surprise given the strength of the 319 line.

If you're still short this market bring exit stops just above the 319 line. I'm not too anxious to open another position just yet. I still feel like an adjustment is due.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=19 HI=20 LO=87 CL=95

The CD traded a little lower today, but notice how rates flirted with the 8200 line? We could look at shorting from here, but I'm going to continue to be picky and wait for a test of 8150 before I get into this market again.
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=2 HI=3 LO=2 CL=2.4

Stupid silver market! Just like cattle, silver prices ranged barely far enough to find our order before reversing on us. The only good news is that support and resistance helped to keep the loss to a managable level. I have a feeling other traders today weren't so fortunate. Still think we've got the right idea, but nothing new here tomorrow.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.685 HI=.72 LO=.685 CL=.70

Smallish day for the ED as rates recovered a bit from last week's rally. Probably see them fall off a bit tomorrow, but I'd really like to see a channel build up so that we had strong support level to sell from.
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10: WILD CARD - MAY BEAN MEAL
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SMK5 O=2.3 HI=4.5 LO=2 CL=3.2

Bean Meal traded low enough today that you could bring your exit stops in above the high, near breakeven. If you can afford the risk, leaving them at their original placement does give you a little more flexibility heading into tomorrow.

For those not already short bean meal I'm running the weekend trade again tomorrow:

*SELL May Bean Meal at 181.4
*Stop 184.2
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $280 per contract
*Profit Target: 170.9
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1050 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, April 4, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=1-25 HI=2-07 LO=1-21 CL=1-25

The early move to -28 wasn't quite high enough to jump on. I sat tight. Likewise the move to 21. I sold one at -29 just before 10 am Chicago time. Stopped out at 111-31 losing 2 ticks, $62. I then bought one at -02. It bounced up to 112-07 and just flat died. I made it out at -03 picking up 1 tick. I then sold -30 and was stopped out at B/E. Tough day. They were very tight with the range today, couldn't get anything going. We tried everything today but 112-00 just kept sucking it right back. The break at the end of the day was about the most power we showed all day.

With the late sell off closing at 111-25 we'll be watching 112-00 and 111-16 for guidance tomorrow. I knew when I got the paper cut between my pinkie and ring finger it wasn't going to be a good day:)
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.515 HI=.520 LO=.510 CL=.515

One of those null, dull days. I'm going to play the TT numbers again tomorrow.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=19 HI=20 LO=87 CL=95

I sold 8210. As suggested I brought the stop to B/E at 8200. They almost went back and got us, but not quite. I managed to bail at 8195 for $150. I will stay with the TT numbers gain tomorrow. Unless we bounce back up there I'll have a new set of numbers for focus on Wednesday.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=3.90 HI=7.10 LO=7.30 CL=6.20

We sold one at 612.80. We reversed at 607.90 for $490 on the short trade. This left us long one fron 607.90. We clawed our way back to 610.90 and failed big time. I dumped it at 609.90 for $200. Next up we bought 608.10. It was pushing end of day so I was really looking for a "what's most likely" out. I found it at 612.80 and banked it ... $470. We bought 613.40 and exited this one at 616.30 picking up another $290.

I inadvertantantly left 616 out of the TT array of numbers over the weekend. We'd added it on Wednesday. We'll play the full array of numbers tomorrow.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5 O=421 HI=460 LO=370 CL=440

I bought 10422. Needless to say this didn't work out so good for us. I was stopped out at 10414 for a loss of $40. I then bought 10422 again just in time to catch the failure. I got stopped out at 10395 on my 10397 stop. A loss of $125 this time. I bought 10422 once again and finally made a little. I was stopped out at 10437 for a 15 point gain, $75. Net on the day we lost $90. All the same numbers from TT guidance for tomorrow.
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6: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=8.00 HI=8.10 LO=4.70 CL=6.00

I sold 428.00. When we broke 425 I rolled to 425.10 and was immediately stopped out at 425.20 picking up $280. They didn't give us a look at anything further. $10 channel and 428 just as we outlined in TT is the play for Tuesday.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.80 HI=.20 LO=.30 CL=.60

Nothing in the Cotton cards for us today. I'll stick with the same numbers from TT for tomorrow.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=60 HI=95 LO=60 CL=88

We bought 1 at 1563. Boy oh boy, did I ever struggle with holding this one overnight. The downside breaks here recently have been monstruous. No Thanks. I took us out at 1577 for $140 and will hope they let us peak at 1580 or even maybe 1560 again tomorrow.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.10 HI=2.11 3/4 LO=2.09 1/2 CL=2.09 3/4

Nothing done here. Very narrow range today. I'll play the same numbers from TT again tomorrow.
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10: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.20 HI=3.23 LO=3.15 CL=3.16 1/3

Sold 3.19 1/2 and was stopped out at B/E. Sold the same number a second time and was stopped out at 3.17 1/2 for 2 cents, $100. Not worth hanging on to over night ... RRR showed us that. TT numbers are up again tomorrow.