Monday, March 28, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Updates for Thursday 3/24/05

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Erich's Update for Thursday, March 24, 2005
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FYI - Tomorrow (Thursday) is the last day of trading for this week as the markets will be closed Good Friday. Since this is a long weekend it is probably a good idea to be flat after tomorrow. -Erich
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=9 1/2 HI=1 3/4 LO=9 1/4 CL=0 3/4

Crazy opening gap in corn today...something we don't see very often in this market. Prices recovered slightly by the end of the session, but I don't see anything interesting for tomorrow.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=40 HI=97 LO=75 CL=58

I hate it when cotton gives us a setup at the end of the week! The market showed us resistance today by trading lower; however with Easter around the corner I don't think prices are going to run away on us tomorrow...I hope.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=23 HI=85 LO=20 CL=61

Got a gift from the Bean Oil market today as prices opened below our profit target, giving us a couple of extra ticks before the big reversal.

If you trailed stops above 2290 then you're still short but I wouldn't want to give the market an inch above here. It's probably a good idea to liquidate tomorrow before the close anyhow if you're not flat already.
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O=.25 HI=.05 LO=.025 CL=.40

Cattle's opening gap put my sell order on hold for opening range at which time I decided to "roll the dice". Too bad for me though as the market fell just low enough to fill the order before rallying and stopping me out for a loss.

Nothing new here tomorrow.
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=35 HI=96 LO=75 CL=88

Cocoa dashed my hopes of a bounce today as the market fell off really hard. Expect prices to find support tomorrow with the holiday around the corner. It might give us another chance next week, but we'll have to see.
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=40 HI=44 LO=35 CL=36 3/4

Wheat prices broke support filling our short order today. Prices moved low enough that you can bring exit stops to breakeven for tomorrow. Don't feel too bad if we get stopped out as it would be nice to be flat for the long weekend.

You might even consider taking premature profits if we see prices fall to 330-ish tomorrow. Wheat is normally a "tame" market, so it shouldn't be a big deal to hold over the weekend if that's your choice.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=42 HI=55 LO=20 CL=34

I have to say I'm most impressed with the 8356 resistance and the strength the market found here. Today's session was a bit of a surprise as I was expecting rates to rally, but no big deal since support and resistance kept us out of a potentially bad trade. Nothing here tomorrow either.
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=8.5 HI= LO=1 CL=8.5

Hmmm...silver's not doing much to get back in my good books as prices fell through support today. The market's officially in a bear trend again so look for prices to continue lower for the near term...except tomorrow where they should find support.
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O=.72 HI=.725 LO=.62 CL=.695

The ED found our first profit target today as rates bounced off the 95.66 line (big surprise, right?) From here the market may rebound a little higher, especially given the higher close, so I'm comfortable being flat for the weekend. If you're still short, place exit stops at least at breakeven of above today's high.
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10: WILD CARD - MAY BEAN MEAL
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SMK5 O=4 HI=.5 LO=2.5 CL=5.3

Bean meal headed a little lower today, so if you didn't take profits at our first target today bring your exit stops in above the high. It wouldn't be a bad thing to be flat this market either going into the holiday weekend.
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RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, March 24, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=0-23 HI=1-10 LO=9-19 CL=9-24

The verdict is in on my speculation yesterday. They took out more but then retraced the entire range later in the day. You'd think with 2 full points of trading range we'd be able to make some money today. No dice as they dealt out a very tough execution scenario to us.

I followed my own advice and was in no hurry to commit to anything. It happened so fast I couldn't manage an entry in any case so the initial dive escaped us entirely. I bought one at 109-20 and got stopped at 17 for a 3 tick loss. We then bought one at -19 and exited at -20 gaining back one of 'em. I then bought 1 at -20 and stopped out at -27 for net gain on the day of +5, $156. It's pretty hard to garner any sympathy when you say you had a really bad day and made 150 bucks. We had a bad day.

With the close at 109-30 we get set up to trade 110-00 or 109-16. It does not go unnoticed had we been trading -08 and -24, the quarter points we would have had a much different outcome ... perhaps. Hmmmmm ...
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.500 HI=.515 LO=.450 CL=.460

Big break, audaciously so for the ED and then a strong snap back. We were flat today so nothing ventured, nothing gained. We'll watch tomorrow with an eye on the TT numbers. I doubt seriously we'll see it get anywhere close. Let's give it a couple of days. For the ED that was a very strong bounce off the 96.400 support.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=42 HI=55 LO=20 CL=34

The gap down open took the market well below our lowest number, 8260. The CD was very choppy from the opening bell. I sold 8248 considering thespike to 55 as a retest of 8260. We made it to 8227 but no lower. I had made the roll to B/E and now brought it to 37. Stopped out at 39 for $90. We made it back to 55 and I tried but couldn't get a fill at any number that made sense. All done. We'll focus on the 8280/8260 TT numbers for tomorrow.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=8.60 HI=9.60 LO=2.80 CL=3.30

We fell outside the bounds of available structure today. We did nothing as a result. I'll play all the TT numbers ... IF we see 'em. We eithe rneed to retrace back up the 620 mark or let it build some lower level structure before I can do anything. Sidelined for the moment.

All the same TT numbers for tomorrow.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5 O=479 HI=519 LO=451 CL=470

Every time we got near our number it faile. So much so that when it finally made it I had no interest in pursuing it. I'll go with the plan from yesterday one more time.

Only trade I have interest in for tomorrow would be a buy as it breaks above 10510. The stop is 10492. The goal is 10640 and we'll start squeezing it above 10630. I'd reverse there if it shows failure. If I'm out on the squeeze, I'll be eyeing a re-entry on a move above 10660.
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6: APRIL GOLD
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GCJ5 O=5.00 HI=8.40 LO=4.50 CL=5.40

If there was any doubt why I don't choose to hold Gold positions overnight the reason should be self evident today. $600 gap down on the open. Yes, we certainly had evidence by looking in on the CBOT electronic that this was in the cards ... but still ...

... and there's our old friend from months ago 424 to put the brakes on. Gold set out north from there. It didn't quite get high enough at 428.40 to get me in a selling mode. So we wound up simply watching as it fell back to near the daily low closing at 425.40. $10 channel for tomorrow and I will buy a retest of 424.00 that fails to go any lower and heads back north.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.40 HI=.97 LO=.75 CL=.58

A gap down open put 50.50 right back in play. Bought 50.54 stopped at B/E. Bought it again at 50.55. I counseled to roll withing 15 points at 50.90, it went to .95 and I was stopped out at 50.80 for 30 points, $150. We drifted lower throughout the remainder of the session to close at 50.58. We'll go with the TT numbers yet again tomorrow.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=35 HI=41 LO=75 CL=88

Speaking of big opening gaps ... well, it wasn't quite $1000 but close enough. WOW! We did nothing here today ... obviously.

It's 1580 line in the sand tomorrow. I'll sell a break of it, I'll buy a failed retest as it heads higher. Small stops ... 1577 on the buy and and 1583 on the sell. The buy heads for 1720; the sell target is 1540. That's not much so we must play periodic RRR with a tight roll at 1560.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.09 1/2 HI=2.11 3/4 LO=2.09 1/4 CL=2.10 3/4

A real blow to the bulls today. A gap down busted thru big time support at 2.10. It quickly bounced back to the 2.20 area and drifted both sides of the rest of the day. We did nothing.

We watch tomorrow. The green candle and the bounce back are encouraging but not tradable ... for me anyway. This was a brutal move for small specs. A lot of accounts have been lost in the past 6 sessions. A shame.
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10: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.40 HI=3.44 LO=3.35 CL=3.36 3/4

I bought 3.40 1/2 and got out at 342 with a heart rate north of 200 beats and $75. I sold 3.39 1/2, survived the missile back to 3.41 and exited at our target from TT at 3.35, $225. Same numbers from yesterday.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday 3/23/05

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Erich's Update for Wednesday, March 23, 2005
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Subscribers got these on Tuesday evening, Test Drivers get theirs after the fact. To sign up and get yours fresh and delicious, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=4 HI=6 1/4 LO=3 3/4 CL=4

Corn prices reinforced support at the 213 area today and I'd like to short the market from here; however there isn't enough profit potential before the 205 line to make it worthwhile right now.

I'm hoping we'll see a bit of a pullback/bounce tomorrow which might get us in a better position to sell. Remember too that this is a short week, so unless traders have a good reason to buy/sell they might just stand aside. ==================================================
2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=25 HI=70 LO=25 CL=38

Cotton rallied today as we expected. Now that the market is trading a little higher it will make it easier to sell it from a better price. Keep an eye on your RSI indicator, once we get closer to a test point we'll jump all over selling the market.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=75 HI=76 Lo=53 CL=58

Very tiny range for bean oil today...which is a little unusual for a bean related market. If you wanted to adjust your trade a bit you could bring your exit stops above today's high to protect a little more profit, or leave them where they are for now.

Hoping to see prices continue lower tomorrow; however a bounce would not be out of the question and should be viewed as another selling opportunity in the making. First profit target remains support at 2227.
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O=.65 HI=.70 LO=.15 CL=.63

Cattle stalled today as prices didn't break yesterday's support. Support and resistance did as they were supposed to and kept us out of a potentially bad trade.

Still favouring the market to the downside for tomorrow so I'll run with the same trade as before. If we see a higher session we might have to re-evaluate, but RSI is at a testpoint so a bounce is likely.

*SELL April Live Cattle at 8707
*Stop 8750
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 8540
*Approximate Profit Potential: $660 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=23 HI=48 LO=23 CL=31

A little more reinforcement of the 1720 support line in cocoa today. I might be a little too demanding on this one but I'm going to look for prices to recover a bit of yesterday's move before looking to sell again.

I have to admit that if this wasn't a short week I'd be all over selling below the 1720 support tomorrow, but since it is a short week I'm not sure what is in store for this market tomorrow.
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=44 HI=48 LO=42 CL=44 1/2

Saw a slight hesitation in wheat today as prices "felt" support at 340-ish. Wheat is showing us the same opportunity as corn; however we have greater profit potential shorting this market from current levels.

*SELL May Wehat at 339 3/4
*Stop 345 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 312 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1350 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=10 HI=53 LO=75 CL=84

The CD rebounded higher today, as we thought it might, and continued to honour the resistance at 8356. This means that we can run with the weekend trade again tomorrow.

*BUY June Canadian Dollar at 8357
*Stop 8339
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 8444
*Approximate Potential Profit: $870 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=8.5 HI=0 LO=2 CL=7

I'm not on speaking terms with silver this week. I'm just a little annoyed by the delayed move...this is what we were looking for from the market last week!

We're starting to hit some congestion, so we could see a reaction and another chance at this market, but I doubt we'll get a trade before the Easter holiday.
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O=.845 HI=.915 LO=.695 CL=.735

Easily sold the ED today as prices broke support in a big way. Move exit stops to breakeven if you choose, or keep them a little shy of the 95.84 support. The initial trade had only $100 per contract at risk, so if you're comfortable with that, you could leave stops as is for one more session before tightening them up.
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10: WILD CARD - MAY BEAN MEAL
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SMK5 O=8 HI=0 LO=7 CL=7.2

Unusually small day for Bean Meal today as prices retested support at our first profit taking target. If you're still short this market you might want to bring stops in above the high as a bounce might be in the making for tomorrow. Nothing new at this time.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, March 23, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=0-23 HI=1-10 LO=9-19 CL=9-24

I tried a couple of trades before shutting down for the F ED announcement. Neither worked very well. I bought 1 at -03 and was stopped at B/E after rolling there when we touched -06. I then tried the other way selling one at -29 and getting stopped out at -31 losing 2 ticks. By then it was appearent we were all holding our breath in anticipation of the FED. I closed up shop.

I contemplated doing something in the aftermath ... until I read the FED comments. This was a major policy shift or, at least, the analysts think it was. We now believe the rate increases will come faster and perhaps greater than 25 basis points at a time. Thus we dumped 2 full points very fast.

If you want to know how I can just pass on a $2000 move and go ho hum, just take a look at a 1 minute chart at 13:21. Yikes! Our methods work best when the market is most normal. FED meeting days are any thing BUT. What happens, happens ... but happens without us. Print this paragraph out and put it up on the wall somewhere nearby.

Tomorrow we must be very cautious. The market may give up some more or it could bounce back retracing significant portions of the move down. Make sure the market has given us a clear green light before atempting anything either way. It will not be the end of the world if we do nothing tomorrow ... it could be the end of our account if we do something too early or in haste.

The close at 109-24 has us watching 109-16 or 110-00 for likley plays. Ease into it, gang.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.500 HI=.515 LO=.450 CL=.460

I took my exit at 96.450. Thank you. Out with $212. We'll look for a bounce back above .500 before doing anything further.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=10 HI=53 LO=75 CL=84

A nice gap up but our numbers right back in play. I sold one at 8342; I'm out at 8283 for $590. Tomorrow we'll look at the lower echelon of TT numbers.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=2.60 HI=0.20 LO=8.60 CL=8.90

I bought 622.40 with the first peak thru the trading window. I bailed at 628.80 for $640. I view that as a home run of sorts ... well, on a Williamsport diamond. For those of for whom that might be a reference a little too obscure ... Williamsport is the home of the Little League World Series ... they play with 200 foot fences. I checked out as the FED announce was within an hour. All the same TT numbers for tomorrow.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5 O=577 HI=634 LO=464 CL=488

Nothing for us today. We got down to the 10400-10500 level I casually referred to in TT.

Only trade I have interest in for tomorrow would be a buy as it breaks above 10510. The stop is 10492. The goal is 10640 and we'll start squeezing it above 10630. I'd reverse there if it shows failure. If I'm out on the squeeze, I'll be eyeing a re-entry on a move above 10660.

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6: APRIL GOLD
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GCJ5 O=1.00 HI=2.80 LO=0.80 CL=1.60

I bought 431.60 bailed at 432.60 ... pretty evident it wasn't going any where and the FED was up. Out with a yard. $10 channel for tomorrow.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.25 HI=.70 LO=.25 CL=.38

I missed the first opportunity to buy the 50.50 break ... no orange candle ... let's see how many of you get that one:) I bought the second break above 50.50 at .55. End of the long run, 51.50 tight roll sound familiar? Out at 51.50. I acually thought I was entitled to a little higher fill. Yeah right, Tom, that'll happen in Cotton. 95 points, $475.

51.50 was Ok for a roll point but lacks sufficient clout to be an entry. Much as I'd love to sell a retest of it, I won't. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=25 HI=48 LO=23 CL=31

I bought one at 1727 with a stop at 1717. I rolled to B/E at 1735 and was stopped out at 1742 for $150.

I'm still on 1720 for tomorrow where we will buy a retest there that fails to go lower or we'll sell a break below 1720. The stop for the buy is 1713 and we'll get to B/E at 1727. The target for the buy is 1770-75. Stop on the sell is 1723 with B/E coming at 1710 and the target is 1660.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.14 HI=2.16 1/4 LO=2.13 3/4 CL=2.14

A bit of a rebound and then more weakness. It held the .14 level throughout the day which was a good sign for the bulls.

2.13/.14 is huge support. I will sell a break below 2.13 and I will buy a break above 2.14 1/4. Very short stops ... penny and a half at most. We are still scalpers so don't be hesitant about taking small profits and waiting for additional opportunities
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10: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.44 HI=3.48 LO=3.42 CL=3.44 1/2

Pretty lackluster day ... nothing for us. Play the same numbers from yesterday's guidance.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Tuesday 3/22/05

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Erich's Update for Tuesday, March 22, 2005
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Hot off the commodity presses to you! (Well not exactly...if you're a test driver, you get these somewhat after the fact). Scroll down for Tom's Trades.

"The fool wonders, the wise man asks" - Benjamin Disraeli
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=7 1/2 HI=7 1/2 LO=3 CL=4 1/2

The bottom fell out of the corn market today as prices fell off right from the open. The market is officially in a bear trend again and I'm hoping for a reaction soon so we can plan another entry.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=25 HI=30 LO=10 CL=12

Cotton fudged our 4930 line a bit today...but I'm sure that was more momentum than anything. Notice the hight closing price? Expect the market to rally for at least one session before falling off again. Just as before I'm very reluctant to buy cotton at this time of the year when we usually see it decline.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=60 HI=68 LO=49 CL=55

Now that's a little more like it! Bean Oil prices fell off quite nicely today easily allowing us to sell this market. Just another example of why we're in the trading business rather than the "prediction" business. ;-)

Management is the key now. As always, let your account be your guide. We've got a little over $400 in accumulated profits as of the close. Bring exit stops at least to breakeven or the intraday resistance at 2290 to lock in the better part of the move.

There's only $200 left in the initial move, so if you wanted to maximize your profit potential, place stops above 2265 but realize you run the risk of getting stopped out tomorrow. First profit target remains support at 2227.
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O=.275 HI=.90 LO=.275 CL=.85

Cattle bounced a bit today and if you had exit stops brought up a bit, you would have been stopped out with profit today. If you had stops at breakeven then you're still short this trade, but if you did get stopped out you have another chance to sell this market tomorrow below recent support.

*SELL April Live Cattle at 8707
*Stop 8750
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 8540
*Approximate Profit Potential: $660 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=20 HI=30 LO=25 CL=33

The bottom fell out of cocoa today stopping us out of our long positions from last week. Fortunately the market didn't gap us, which could have been a real expensive start to the week. Support and resistance also kept us out of a potentially bad trade today as prices fell off hard from the open. Nothing here tomorrow.
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=54 HI=55 LO=40 1/4 CL=42 1/2

Wheat prices followed the other grains lower today. In hindsight we could have put together a sell trade below last week's support; however the bull trend appeared to have some legitimate strength to it. No matter. Looking for a reaction tomorrow which might give us another chance at this market before the holiday weekend.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=47 HI=75 LO=44 CL=72

Wow, what a crazy start to the week for the CD! The market is at an RSI testpoint, so I am expecting rates to recover tomorrow; however I think I'll let them confirm support before I get too anxious about buying.
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=0 HI=0.5 LO=6.5 CL=1.2

No one can accuse silver of being wishy-washy today! Too bad we didn't get this move last week when we were ready for the market to decline...who would have thought we'd see a drop like this on a Monday? Not me! Big range is scaring me off of trading this market tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O•.84 HI•.85 LO•.83 CL•.845

In spite of the large ranges in the currencies and other markets, the ED was relatively calm today...maybe it just didn't know what was going on in the other markets. ;-) Sticking with the weekend plan for tomorrow. Selling this market still seems to make the most sense.
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10: WILD CARD - MAY BEAN MEAL
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SMK5 O=0.5 HI=0.7 LO=5.1 CL=7.3

Bean Meal fell off nicely today to our first profit target before recovering slightly. If you took profit here then you banked $1100 per contract - congrats!

If you're still short this market you might want to bring in exit stops above the close as it looks as though we might see a bounce tomorrow and we wouldn't want all this nice profit to disappear!
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, March 22, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=0-21 HI=0-24 LO=0-15 CL=0-18

Today was pretty much a replay of Friday ... just a lower price level. Just like Friday and Thursday last week, we saw a number of nice legs up and down. The problem was they all fell short of our targets on the topside. Once we figured out the game it wasn't too hard ... nor very productive.

Started the day buying 1 at 110-19. As we touched -24 it was evident the tank was, if not dry, on reserve. I bailed at -22 for plus 3. I bought -19 again and bailed at -23 for 4 ticks.Bought -19 a third time and again bailed at -23 for another 4. I closed it down after this last one as it was not a very efficient use of time ... obviously. Total for the day 11 ticks, $343.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.500 HI=.505 LO=.490 CL=.495

It's always a good thing to see a red candle on the daily when you're short ... even if it takes a microscope to see it. Status quo.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O‚47 HI‚75 LO‚44 CL‚72

A big gap down on the open reflected the strength in the U.S Dollar that built up over night. I watched for a bit thinking 8270 was close enough to 80 but when I started playing with RRR with 60 so close I abandoned that idea real fast. Same numbers from TT for tomorrow. Although I wouldn't hold my breath in anticipation of a trade here anytime soon.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=2.50 HI=4.40 LO=8.30 CL=2.90

I had to let the first big leg go. I bought one at 620.20 and was stopped out at 620.10 for a $10 loss. I bought 620.20 again on the rebound and when we got to 622 it fizzled. I exited at 621.90 for $170. I bought 620.50 and exited at 623.30 for $280. All the same TT numbers for tomorrow.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5 O=635 HI=650 LO=557 CL=581

When our trading window opened paralleling the RTH session in the big Dow we were floating about 10635 to 45. On the second punch above 10645 I sold one with a stop at 10663. We went to 10560 and pulled up. I watched for a few minutes and became convinced it run the tank dry. I bailed at 10570 for $465. That was it for me. I set an alarm at 10520 and 10645 and went to play elsewhere ... I never heard a peep. Same numbers from TT for tomorrow.
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6: APRIL GOLD
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GCJ5 O=4.50 HI=4.60 LO=9.20 CL=1.40

A big gap down on the open but us on the trailer. It got low enough to buy but it was too late in the day for me even with a pretty nice confirmation. $10 channel for tomorrow.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.60 HI=.20 LO=.00 CL=.78

A fair gap down here derailed us as well. Awfully close but just a tad too short of 50.50 for me. It dropped smartly from there before rebounding above 50.00 again. We closed at 50.12. The shame of it is they took it almost down to our target pegging the low at 49.10. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=20 HI=30 LO=25 CL=33

Another gap down and another dose of "almost" frustration. The focus now turns to 1720 where we will buy a retest there that fails to go lower or we'll sell a break below 1720. Thestop for the buy is 1713 and we'll get to B/E at 1727. The target for the buy is 1770-75. Stop on the sell is 1723 with B/E coming at 1710 and the target is 1660.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.17 1/2 HI=2.17 1/2 LO=2.13 CL=2.14 1/2

I hate it when people do this, I particularly hate when trading advisors do this ... I just can't help myself ... I told you this wasn't the break out move. I told you to be scalpers, play it close to the vest. All those 2.17/2.18 longs are officially toast or close to it. All those 2.12 longs are now barely profitable after being up almost a grand. Not you guys though. You have periodic RRR working for you. Not you guys, you are traders not blindly reliant analysts. Not you guys, you'd rather miss a few cents than have trades back up on you. Good for our side.

I could not have designed by hand a better example to illustrate what we do and what we don't do anymore than this fiasco. If you do nothing in the next week to understand the concepts we are trying to shine a light on at least study the past 20 sessions in corn. It is an outstanding trading lesson.

During the 20 sessions examined we saw prices run from 2.10 to 2.25 back to 2.12 back again to 2.31 and back to 2.13 low today. If you hit every high and every low there was about $3500 of price flucuation in the market. We captured, during that time, $1323 of it. We risked very little, we had no drama of the kind that played out over the prior 3 or 4 sessions and what we did capture is in the bank ... not given back as so many "by the book" traders experienced in the past few sessions. This is huge; you guys ... soak it up.
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10: MARCH WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.54 HI=3.55 LO=3.40 1/4 CL=3.42 1/2

We didn't get the little bounce we needed to bring our big number into focus. The small gap down took it away from us. That's the bad news. The good news is we anticipated that and with the help of good ol' S&R we had him pegged.

I sold 3.53. When we hit 3.40 1/4, which turned out to be the low of the day and one of our roll points, I took the stop to 3.41 1/4 and got hit at 3.41 3/4. Out with 11 1/4 cents, $562.

We'll play off of 3.40 tomorrow either way ... buy or sell. Stops are no more than 3.41 1/4 on the sell ans 3.39 1/4 on the buy. Periodic RRR rules the trade use the numbers in reverse from TT to manage the buy. On the sell the target is 3.30 but respect 3.35 and 3.32