Wednesday, March 23, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition

The Test Drive Version of the Big Weekend Edition is posted at

The Subscribers got these on Sunday...Test Drivers get 'em somewhat after the fact!

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Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday March 18, 2005

ERICH's Update for Friday, March 18, 2005
Hot off the commodity presses to you. Scroll down for


"It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay
with problems longer." - Albert Einstein
Happy St. Patty's Day everyone!

-Erich, Tom and Shaggy
CK5 O=223 1/4 HI=224 1/2 LO=221 1/2 CL=223 1/2

Corn continued lower as we hoped today. The market is
trading below the 225 resistance, which would be a good
entry line for tomorrow, but I'd really like to see
prices find support at 218-ish before recovering.
CTK5 O=5280 HI=5325 LO=5085 CL=5133

A definite "why-didn't-I-short-cotton-like-I-wanted-to"
day. Prices fell hard through support today and we're
now very close to officially being a bear trend. Cotton
can be a tricky market and it's not unusual to see two
big days in a row, either up or down. However tomorrow
is Friday so I think I'll just sit on my hands and hope
for a bounce.
BOK5 O=2417 HI=2437 LO=2332 CL=2434

@#%! Bean Oil! Stupid market gave us a nice breakout
today before backing up and whipsawing us out of the
trade. I think the part that really bothers me is that
I "never" take a countertrend trade...yet that's exactly
what I tried to do and ended up paying the consequences.

Licking my wounds for tomorrow.
LCJ5 O=89.80 HI=89.80 LO=88.05 CL=88.475

I entertained suggesting trying to sell cattle from
the high; however it is always a riskier trade than
waiting for the market to take out substantial resistance
which is what this market did today anyway.

Caught a bit of the luck-o-the-Irish as prices made a
run at our stops after finding the order, but didn't
rally high enough to find them.

Can't really move the stops just yet. Keep your fingers
and toes crossed that prices continue lower tomorrow
without ranging too high.
CCK5 O=1840 HI=1850 LO=1815 CL=1830

Cocoa didn't look particularly strong today as prices
got near the weekly 50%. Prices flinched a bit at the
1850 area so we might expect a lower session tomorrow.

For those of you with nerves of steel, bring exit stops
to breakeven, otherwise bring them a below today's close
to try and lock in at least a bit of profit.
WK5 O=360 HI=368 LO=355 1/2 CL=366 1/2

I hate it when the market sets up like this for a Friday.
Wheat rallied hard off support today and if you look at
an intraday chart the rally came in the dying minutes of
trading, so it is likely to continue tomorrow as well.

I don't like initiating a position on Friday's as it adds
to the overall risk of the trade. Besides prices are right
up against the weekly 62% retracement line. All in all I
don't think I like the odds and I'll stand aside and hope
the wheat traders are too hung over from St. Patrick's Day
to do too much.
CDM5 O=8301 HI=8356 LO=8274 CL=8321

The 8356 resistance line held beautifully today keeping
us out of a potentially bad trade. As with other Friday
trades I'm not crazy about getting into a CD trade this
close to the weekend; however if rates continue higher I
want to be there to take advantage of it.

*BUY June Canadian Dollar at 8357
*Stop 8339
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 8444
*Approximate Profit Potential: $870 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
SIK5 O=745.2 HI=749.5 LO=734 CL=740.7

Resistance on silver's high held the market down today
as prices traded within the previous day's ranges. I'll
continue to look to buy this market on a breakout above
resistance tomorrow, but I'll also look to sell it if
prices break support.

*BUY May Silver at 754.5
*Stop 748.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 785.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1550 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH


*SELL May Silver at 729.5
*Stop 735
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 711.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
EDZ5 O=95.885 HI=95.92 LO=95.86 CL=95.87

The ED backed away from support today as rates managed
a bit of a rally. You could sell below today's low;
however I'll stick with the original plan for tomorrow.

Ideally we will see the market continue higher to the
95.96 resistance from where I'd be much more comfortable
selling the market short.

*SELL December Eurodollar at 95.81
*Stop 95.8525
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $106 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.66
*Approximate Profit Potential: $375 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
SMK5 O=198.8 HI=199 LO=192 CL=196.8

Sold Bean Meal today as prices made a nice break through
support, unfortunately the market backed up on us before
closing and is sitting right near our entry.

You could leave stops where they are for tomorrow, which
is a clear indication we were wrong about the market, or
you could bring them just above the 198 price to keep
your risk to an absolute minimum.