Monday, March 21, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Update for Thursday, March 17, 2005

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Erich's Update for Thursday, March 17, 2005
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=7 1/4 HI=9 3/4 LO=5 1/4 CL=5 1/2

Got our hesitation in corn today as the market traded a little lower. I'd like to see at least one more lower session tomorrow before we look at buying the market again. I know it might be asking a lot, but we'll see what the market gives us.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=60 HI=20 LO=00 CL=78

Cotton traded higher again today. This market is determined to make a liar out of me, but this is the exact same scenario I encountered all those years ago when I bought cotton April 1 only to see it fall off.

Watching and waiting for a reaction at 5500.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=23 HI=52 LO=97 CL=15

Bean Oil continued to tease us today as prices tested support but failed to head any lower. This market is due for a pullback of sorts and I think we might see it tomorrow.

As you know I'm not a fan of selling into an uptrend however if we see another break of the 2400 support I think we can see a 38% retracement coming.

*SELL May Bean Oil at 2389
*Stop 2416
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $162 per contract
*Profit Target: 2302
*Approximate Profit Potential: $522 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O=.825 HI=.95 LO=.60 CL=.675

Cattle didn't find our entry order today, but it did fall off to test support before rallying again. Things continue to look good for the bulls, but I'll throw a sell order into the mix too in case we see a break below support.

*BUY April Live Cattle at 9012
*Stop 8967
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 9150
*Approximate Profit Potential: $550 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL April Live Cattle at 8847
*Stop 8892
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 8670
*Approximate Profit Potential: $710 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=85 HI=35 LO=73 CL=29

Nice rally off support today as cocoa had no trouble finding our entry order. Prices rallied high enough that we can bring our exit stops to break even for tomorrow and give us a little breathing room.

It's the early part of these trades that are the most risky. Keep your fingers crossed that we don't see too much of a move to the downside.
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=65 HI=68 1/2 LO=60 1/2 CL=61

Got the reversal we were looking for as wheat bounced off the 369 resistance. I'm going to be picky and look for a little profit taking action to drive the market lower for at least one more session, then we'll get more serious about buying again.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=18 HI=40 LO=03 CL=14

The CD continues to play with the 8340 resistance line. I might look at buying the market long tomorrow if we see a break above the 8356 high from the other day. If you wanted to be more aggressive on this trade buy a break of the 8345 area.

*BUY June Canadian Dollar at 8357
*Stop 8339
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 8444
*Approximate Profit Potential: $870 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=0 HI=8.5 LO=9 CL=5.2

Silver's RSI is showing us a bit of a bounce off the trendline and 50% level today, which makes me think we could see the market rally tomorrow. Picking an entry was tough, but I stuck with the resistance at 753 as an entry line, covering the trade on today's high. First profit target is resistance at 786.

*BUY May Silver at 754.5
*Stop 748.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 785.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1550 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O=.835 HI=.90 LO=.825 CL=.84

A triple tap on support today gives us a very solid line from which to sell this market further. The low closing price would suggest that the ED favours heading lower to going higher. Next profit target is 100% retracement at 9566, but don't expect it to stop there.

*SELL December Eurodollar at 95.81
*Stop 95.8525
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $106 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.66
*Approximate Profit Potential: $375 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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10: WILD CARD - MAY BEAN MEAL
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SMK5 O=1.5 HI=5 LO=7.5 CL=7.9

The whole grain complex is overbought, but none more so that soybeans. You could do this same trade with the parent soybean contact; however the numbers are a little more precise with Bean Meal which is why I chose it.

This is a countertrend trade and therefore is much more risky than waiting for support before rebuying; however prices seem ripe for a retracement.

*SELL May Bean Meal at 196.9
*Stop 199.6
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $270 per contract
*Profit Target: 185.6
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1130 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, March 16, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=0-23 HI=1-14 LO=0-11 CL=0-17

WE began the day with a bit of a gap up, then an swift retrace that failed. Yumm me. I bought 110-20 and was stopped at B/E. Bought 1 at -21 and we were off to the races. We were stopped out at 111-03 for 13 ticks, $406. We then bought again at 111-03. This trade was stopped out at 111-11 for another 8 ticks, $250. Just a couple of ticks higher and I would have reversed and we REALLY would have had something. It didn't, we didn't. All I could do was sit and watch that next leg down unfold without me. DRAT! Then again, $656 is not a bad day's wage.

The close at 110-25 sets us up to trade 111-00 or 110-16 tomorrow. I'm looking forward to it.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.485 HI=.520 LO=.485 CL=.495

There was that little bounce I have been anticipating. It failed as I also suspected would be the case. They must have misread the Daily Update yesterday:)

Hopefully, you jumped in their today above 96.510 as we closed again below 96.50. Get used to the sounds and thrills of paint drying ... we might be in this one for a while.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=18 HI=40 LO=03 CL=14

Not quite as eventful and fun as was yesterday, but still, I'll be happy to take it. We sold 1 at 8336 and bailed at 8304 for $320 and simultaneously reversed. Heck, why not they did it 3 times yesterday, right. We bought 1 at 8305. I bailed on this one at 8328 but wasn't quick enough to get it sold again. I sold 8329, it moved down just as before but not low enough as it pulled up at 8310. I had the stop rolled to 21 and they zapped it back up in 1 lousy tick to 8320 and stopped us out at 8322. We made $70 more. End of day was approaching so we checked out ... $390 snug in our pocket.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=9.10 HI=1.90 LO=2.70 CL=5.80

The trading window opened with the market right on our 629 guidance. I sold 629.10 and exited at 627.20 for $190. We then sold 628.80 and out at 625.70 picking up $310. That was it for the day a tidy $500.

For tomorrow it's all the same numbers from yesterday PLUS we'll sell a break below 626 or buy a failed test there. We still have to be on our toes managing by periodic RRR. We now have a decent array of identified levels we can begin to use those levels above and below as targets and roll points as appropriate.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5 O=775 HI=677 LO=660 CL=675

When our trading window opened we were in the midst of a very significant failure that began about an hour earlier. I just hopped on best I could selling one at 10766. It tried real hard for about a half an hour to take out 10700 and couldn't. All I needed to see. I bailed at 10717 picking up 49 ticks, $245. There was a LOT left in the move as we saw later. I just ran out of numbers to focus on. We're still learning things about this market and how to capitalize on our methods as they specifically relate to the dynamics of this market. Today I learned a bunch.

For tomorrow we keep our TT numbers anf those from yesterday in play. We'll also add to the mix by selling a break below 10650 or buying a retest there that fails to go lower. Also add a sell of a retest of 10700 that fails to go higher or buy a break above it. Same deal as with the Russell ... start using the wider array of numbers we enjoy now to set targets and perform rolls at the appropriate higher and lower levels.
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6: APRIL GOLD
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GCJ5 O=2.80 HI=4.70 LO=2.20 CL=4.20

Nothing here today. $10 channel for tomorrow.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.60 HI=.20 LO=.00 CL=.78

It was, of course, the break of the double top. What can ya' do:) Tomorrow I'll sell a break back below 53.60 with the same 53.67 stop from yesterday.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=85 HI=35 LO=73 CL=29

Not even close ... more power is what we got. I'm back on the sidelines here.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.27 1/4 HI=2.29 3/4 LO=2.25 1/4 CL=2.25 1/2

I bought 1 at 2.26 1/4. We made it up to the high of the day at 2.29 3/4 and failed. I'm out at 2.28 3/4 as I was protecting 2.29 with a 2.28 3/4 stop. Out with 2 1/2 cents $125. It was a pretty spectacular failure too ...we settled at 2.25 1/2. Tomorrow's plays are the TT numbers again ... 2.25/.26.
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10: MARCH WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.65 HI=3.68 1/2 LO=3.60 1/2 CL=3.61

My hands are tied at the moment ... got no structure to deal with.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday, March 16, 2005

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Erich's Update for Wednesday, March 16, 2005
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"It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer." - Albert Einstein ==================================================
1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=5 HI=31 LO=3 1/4 C=8 1/2

Corn took off like a shot today. I wasn't expecting prices to recover as quickly as they did. On the lookout for the next hesitation so we can try to buy in again.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=40 HI=70 LO=50 CL=63

Cotton did continue to trade higher today, but just barely. I'm very tempted to buy this market higher especially based on the strong trend; however we're contending with some substantial resistance at 5380 followed closely by resistance at 5500.

Combine this with the seasonal weakness we normally see at this time of the year and I'm stuck sitting on my hands.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=10 HI=75 LO=93 CL=23

Bean Oil chopped around a bit today in spite of the parent bean contract rallying substantially higher. In spite of the new highs, this market is a little too top heavy for my liking. We need to see some profit taking and/or a pullback before we can comfortably re-enter.
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O=25 HI=95 LO=25 CL=75

I can't believe that cattle rallied again today. Boy this market sure is strong. I would have thought that with all the factors influencing this market right now the bulls would have packed up and gone home...but that's obviously not the case.

While we're trading high enough to get a nose bleed, I might buy this market if it continues higher tomorrow. It's not that we've got such a great entry, but we've got pretty decent support to base our exit on. Either way it could be a little on the risky side.

*BUY April Live Cattle at 9012
*Stop 8967
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 9150
*Approximate Profit Potential: $550 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=92 HI=95 LO=73 CL=85

Cocoa stubbled a bit today as prices were unable to exceed yesterday's highs, or lows for that matter. The market certainly is indecisive and it's at an RSI test point as well. We should see something happen here tomorrow so we'll continue to cover both sides of the trade.

*BUY May Cocoa at 1806
*Stop 1789
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $170 per contract
*Profit Target: 1864
*Approximate Profit Potential: $580 per contract
*RRR: 3:1 *Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

-OR-

*SELL May Cocoa at 1763
*Stop 1777
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $140 per contract
*Profit Target: 1706
*Approximate Profit Potential: $570 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=60 HI=69 LO=59 CL=68

Wheat rallied in symapthy for soybeans today and broke through our first profit target at 365 1/4. Like the other grain markets, we're getting to some pretty serious resistance and as such I'd like to see a bit of a reversal before trying to buy in again.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=17 HI=56 LO=80 CL=98

A near identical day to yesterday, but with a slightly larger range. This morning's opening gap put my trade on hold for opening range, after which the market was already trading above my entry so I pulled the trade. Doesn't look like the CD knew what it wanted to do so it's just as well we didn't get in.

Standing aside for tomorrow as well.
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=1 HI=3 LO=0 C=0.7

Horrible looking range in silver today, the only good news is our order was far enough away that we didn't get filled. The indecisive closing price means the market doesn't know what it wants to do, and in absence of that, we'll stick to the trend.

*BUY May Silver at 757.5
*Stop 753.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 770
*Approximate Profit Potential: $625 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O=.865 HI=.875 LO=.825 CL=.83

The ED rallied just high enough to tag our exit stops today taking us out of the trade with $240 profit per contract. Still looking for the market to head lower in the future, but we'll stand aside for a bit as I think an adjustment might be pending.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, March 16, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=1-03 HI=1-11 LO=0-11 CL=0-17

We bought 111-03 and were stopped at at B/E. We bought 111-02; stopped out at -07 for +5. Nother -03 buy and a B/E stop. Sold 110-29 and exited at -17 for +12. I stopped trading at that point as we were withing the final hour. Gone to the barn with 17, $531.

The close at 110-17 sets up a break of 110-16 sell or a break above buy. We will also account for the possibilty of an open above -17 that sets us on 111-00.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.510 HI=.515 LO=.485 CL=.49

We rolled the stop to B/E today. Had the high been less than .515 I would have brought it there. If you're not short with us you might consider looking at sellingone on a pullback above 96.510 and a stop at .535 matching our B/E stop.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=17 HI=56 LO=80 CL=98

I sold 8338 with an 8343 stop. I rolled to B/E as 30 broke. I bailed at 8309 for $290. Sold 8323 bailed ay 8307 for $160. Sold 8325 bailed at 8294 for $310. Total take a nice $760. I think we got about as much from that garbage as anyone could have hoped for. I quit right there. Armed as we were with all the numbers they wanted to bang on this was like hitting lobs to Agassi's forehand ... truly fun.

All the same TT numbers plus 8300 even for tomorrow. You can almost bet money they won't let us do that again.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=3.20 HI=7.70 LO=7.60 CL=9.10

The labeling was incorrect yesterday. It said March but the numbers were all June as they were intended. I apologize for any confusion this might have caused. Would have been nice to have had 637 in our mix ... we didn't. I sold one at 630 on the button. Out at 629 for $100. Sold 629.90. Took 627.90 on this one for $200.

Tomorrow we retain the 640 trades from TT and yesterday's update. We also will sell a break below 629. We'll buy any failed retest below 630. We will also buy a break above 637.80 and sell any failed retest of 636.00. The array expands as more structure exposes itself. Stops off any of these trades should be less than $100 and closer to $65-70. Free it up a little bit as you begin the accumulate any profit. You MUST use periodic RRR if you hope to make this work. You might benefit from a reread of this past weekend's Ed Page.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5 O=843 HI=870 LO=772 CL=779

When our trading window opened we were well above 10800 ... 10850's to be semi-precise. I sold 10796 and was stopped out at 10818 for a loss of $110. I then sold 10798 and was stopped out at 10781 getting back $85 of the $110 we lost. Done for the day.

For tomorrow we'll again play the TT numbers. We also expand our horizons here a tad also. A retest and failure at 10775 is a buy as it comes back above 10777. Sell a break of 10772
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6: APRIL GOLD
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GCJ5 O=3.60 HI=4.90 LO=0.30 CL=1.40

I bought 441.60 and was stopped out at break even ... TWICE ... karumba. $10 channel for tomorrow.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.15 HI=.20 LO=.80 CL=.11

If it drops lower and comes back to retest 53.60-65 and then fails, I'll sell it with a stop at 53.67. I will not buy the break above the double top. You must see the drop and a retest before doing this one.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=92 HI=95 LO=73 CL=85

I sold 1790, stopped at 1785 on an 81 stop. $50, big whoop. What I wrote yesterday in the update? Do that again.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.25 HI=2.31 LO=2.23 1/4 CL=2.28

I bought 2.26 1/4 today. I am out at 2.29 1/2 for 3 1/4 cents, $162. Tomorrow's plays are the TT numbers again ... 2.25/.26.
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10: MARCH WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.60 HI=3.69 LO=3.59 CL=3.68

My hands are tied at the moment ... got no structure to deal with.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Tuesday March 15, 2005

I hope that you are enjoying our profitable trading picks, as we invest enormous amount of hours in market research and analysis.

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Here's your chance to participate in a new trading program that I announced a week ago - (http://www.supportandresistance.com/VIPsubscribe.html).

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It would be up to you to decide if you wanted to participate in the recommended trade, or to pass and wait for the next opportunity. If you decided to take the trade however, I would look after everything for you, from entry, through managing stops to final exit of the trade. All communications and confirmations of trades will be done with you directly.

Nothing for you to worry about! It would be like trading on autopilot. I am sure that you are intelligent enough to realize that this is not a promise to make you profits, rather I will make my best effort to try and figure market direction based on my charting and trading experience. Only risk capital should be invested.

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I look forward to having you on my VIP team.

Sincerely yours,

Erich
[email protected] ==================================================
Erich's Update for Tuesday, March 15, 2005
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=3 H=3 1/2 LO=0 1/4 CL=1

Got a bounce off the 225 resistance this morning, but that wasn't a real surprise. Walked with about $250 per contract when we got stopped out after the open. Looking for another chance to buy in...probably see support at 216 1/2 - 217 before the next reversal.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=15 HI=20 LO=80 CL=11

Nutty day in cotton today as prices tried to fall off but rallied hard again by the close. Probably see a higher session tomorrow, but I'm a little hesitant about buying in right now. Think it will be safer to stand aside and wait for a better setup.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=85 HI=22 LO=63 CL=68

Bean Oil followed the other grains lower today stopping us out of our long position right after the open. Did manage to pick up about $150 per contract, but it wasn't much to show for all our effort. Expect bean oil to "normalize" a bit over the next few days before we get another chance to buy.
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O=50 HI=65 LO=75 CL=10

The 8885 support line in cattle held today and managed to stall last week's quick decline. I'm still expecting prices to fall off a bit and try to fill the gap from February 3/05. Then I'll be getting real serious about selling this market...but not just yet.
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=94 HI=00 LO=65 CL=72

Cocoa was very respectful of our support and resistance numbers today, just take a look at today's high and low, right on the money.

I think we've got this market pretty much cornered right now. I'll look at a buy or a sell tomorrow; however given the current trend I have to say I'd be a little more comfortable with the buy side of the equation, but I'll let the market decide.

*BUY May Cocoa at 1806
*Stop 1789
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $170 per contract
*Profit Target: 1864
*Approximate Profit Potential: $580 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

-OR-

*SELL May Cocoa at 1759
*Stop 1776
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $170 per contract
*Profit Target: 1706
*Approximate Profit Potential: $530 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=56 HI=57 1/2 LO=52 CL=54

Wheat gave us a reaction to nearby resistance this morning as well. Fortunately the market opened reasonably well so we were able to pick up about $850 per contract when we got stopped out.

Expect wheat prices to fall off a bit for the early part of the week before we look at buying again.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=87 HI=12 LO=75 CL=00

Smallish day in the CD today probably due to some market specific reports due out tomorrow. Notice how traders hesitation has caused the market to form a small pennant formation. Technically you could trade the breakout to either side; however I'll confine myself to buying the market at this time.

Note, this is a more aggressive version of the weekend trade.

*BUY June Canadian Dollar 8331
*Stop 8309
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 8418
*Approximate Profit Potential: $870 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=5.5 HI=6.5 LO=7.5 CL=1

Silver fell off to test support on the price and RSI trendlines today. This means the market is at a testpoint and needs to break or bounce tomorrow. Given the strength of the current trend I'll look to buy rather than sell, but if we see another lower session tomorrow I'll be getting a little more bearish.

*BUY May Silver at 757.5
*Stop 753.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 770
*Approximate Profit Potential: $625 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O=.95 HI=.86 LO=.825 CL=.845

Doesn't the ED remind you of the little engine that could? Today the market headed lower yet again, getting a little closer to our first profit target at 9578. You might want to bring exit stops a little lower to protect more profit, placing them slightly above today's high (maybe 9587.5).
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
========================================================