Thursday, March 10, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Thursday 3-10-05

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Erich's Update for Thursday, 3-10-05
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Hot off the commodity presses to you! Well, at least after the close if you're a test driver. To get it when the members do, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html
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REPORT DAY THURSDAY!
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The WASDE report is due out tomorrow. This is a biggie folks. Caution should be excerised in all positions. Many markets are giving us good looking trades for tomorrow, but remember that the pending report will increase the risk level of ALL the suggested trades, especially in the grains.

Remember, there is never a rush to get into a trade. Let your risk tolerance and account be your guide.
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=5 HI=6 1/2 LO=3 1/4 CL=6 1/4

Corn called my bluff and headed higher today. Big report out in the morning which could send prices into a nose dive, but I'll stick with the trend right now and hope for the best. ;-)

*BUY May Corn at 217 3/4
*Stop 215 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $100 per contract
*Profit Target: 233 1/4 (followed by 239 3/4)
*Approximate Profit Potential: $775 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=67 HI=40 LO=25 CL=00

Ouch! Cotton fooled me today into thinking it was heading higher. Prices rallied hard from the open but fell flat after hitting the high. Given how fast prices were trading you may not have had a chance to even buy into this market at a reasonable level so maybe you faired a little better than I did. Still expecting cotton to rally a bit...but I'm sitting this one out tomorrow.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=45 HI=86 LO=40 CL=64

Caught a break in bean oil as prices rallied a bit today. Overall it was a flat day, but that's not a surprise given that the WASDE report is out tomorrow. If you can afford the risk I would suggest leaving stops for one more day. If that's more than you can bear, bring them just below 2350 for tomorrow. First profit target is resistance at 2460.
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O=95 HI=25 LO=52 CL=45

Only in cattle, eh? After this morning's opening gap I thought this trade was done, but after opening range expired prices regained their composure and headed higher. What a nice session it was too as cattle easily found our first profit target at 9132 earning us a tidy $640 per contract.

If you still have long positions, bring exit stops below 9120, an intraday support level, and see if we can't trade this market higher still.
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=70 HI=76 LO=29 CL=38

Cocoa behaved perfectly today, falling off from the open to nearby support at 1730. Guess I should have thought about selling after all...nice to see my hindsight is still 20/20. ;-)

I might look at selling cocoa below the 1730 area tomorrow. Bear in mind that this is a COUNTERTREND TRADE and therefore is VERY RISKY. I'm going to push the market to the 50% and "ignore" the support at 1675, but don't be too surprised if we see a reaction there.

*SELL May Cocoa at 1724
*Stop 1746
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 1646
*Approximate Profit Potential: $780 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=37 HI=42 LO=36 CL=40 3/4

A smallish day for wheat today, but no surprise given the WASDE report due tomorrow. We're currently long this market and can move stops up a bit if you choose to take some risk out of the trade. Either use the low of the day or the 339 area to limit your exposure. First profit target is resistance at 365 1/4.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=70 HI=43 LO=58 CL=19

The CD continues to rub salt in yesterday's wound by giving us yet another strong session. We've got resistance at 8250-ish, so I would like to see a reaction here tomorrow to send rates lower. Then we'll be on the lookout for the next buying signal.
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=4 HI=8 LO=6 CL=4

Silver pushed higher as we thought it might, but look at that range! That's the reason we couldn't look at buying here today, the market is just moving way too much right now. Standing aside for tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O=.92 HI=.95 LO=.92 CL=.925

A reversal of fortune in the ED today as rates closed rather low after a weak rally. Looks like a sell might be in order below today's low and cover the trade above the high.

*SELL December Eurodollar at 95.91
*Stop 95.96
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.75
*Approximate Profit Potential: $400 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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RECOMMENDED BROKER
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If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, 3-10-05
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=1-09 HI=1-22 LO=0-26 CL=0-27

The curse of trading only the RTH session. I sold 111-15. The double bottom at 111-10 wasn't enough to allow me to roll the stop to 111-11 but I could clearly see the B/E coming. I jumped out at 111-13 for a plus 2 ticks. We bumped up to -22 and failed rather convincingly. I sold 111-15 a second time. From there it made a nice little run down thru 111-00 pulling back at 111-27. I wanted no part of a move back above 111-00 so I moved my stop to 111-01. We went to -27 again ... and failed again ... writing on the wall ... I bailed at 110 -29 for 18 ticks. This gave me 20 total for the day and I got to sleep in to 5:15:) That's $625, thank you.

The close at 110-27 leaves us eyeing 111-00 and 110-16 for tomorrow's plays. We'll go with buys or sells at either level. I fully expect to see a snap back of some proportion. We went much lower in the night but have started climbing back to near Wednesday's close.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.540 HI=.550 LO=.535 CL=.545

As you'd expect, the June chart is not quite as flat lined as March has been. Pretty much the same idea, though at lower levels. 96.535 is the obvious level to take a short trade as it breaks below that level. It doesn't quite have the strength I'd like to see so we'll watch another day as it pumps iron.
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3: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDH5 O=71 HI=48 LO=70 CL=47

Another break away gap up as the U.S Dollar is just getting hammered anew. Nothing yet ... except to explore with Erich if he can pay me my share in Canadian. LOL. We'll continue to watch.
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4: MARCH MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTH5 O=7.90 HI=9.50 LO=0.60 CL=0.80

As the trading window opened for us we were moving back to 637 territory, our trigger from 2/27 TT. We failed at 637.10 tried to get higher and couldn't so I took a poke at 'em. We sold 636.80 with a stop at 638.10 for risk of $130. We made a nice long run down to 631.20 ... spittin' distance of our target from 2/27 and a quick check of the periodic RRR told me it was dumb to stay around. I jumped out at 631.50 picking up $530.

I really thought this was an excellent place to buy, but hadn't laid out the trade so I filed that info away for later use ...see below. I watched as we climbed back to 636.50 and judged that not quite close enough to our 637.90 trigger. Eventually we did make a push on 637.30 ... THAT was close enough. I sold 637.00. Took a while, but we finally made a good break and pushed back down to 632.60. I rolled my stop to 633.10 beginning the Squeeze. I was stopped out at 633.60 for another $340. By the end of the RTH session we'd seen a press very close to 630.00 but I never got numbers for a 3rd sell.

I made reference above to a buy I thought was solid. What became clear to me today is I need to go deeper and braoden my array of planned trades. I'm so used to playing narrower ranges in the other markets that I haven't reached out far enough to encompass the daily volatility possibilities in the Russell. We'll cure that right now.

For tomorrow ...

Sell a retest of 637 area that fails. Buy a break above 631.70. Sell a break below 627.20 or buy a failed retest there. Buy a break above 638.20. Use the non reached numbers as target s for entered trades. By example ... if you get a sell in at a retested and failed 637 something use 631.70 and or 627.20 as a target; you buy the break above 631.70, use 637.90 as the target. Let periodic RRR rule your management once in any trade. Take care of it and it'll take care of you.
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5: MARCH $5 DOW
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EYMH5 O=916 HI=946 LO=794 CL=802

I'm an observer again ... sure wish I'd of been a seller at 10950 though. Tomorrow lets buy a break back above 10800. Let's also be ready to sell a retest of 10800 should that rascal fail. Stop on the sell need not be higher than 10811, on the buy not lower than about 10791. Just as with the Russell ... and EVERY other trade as well ... periodic risk reward use is thee key.
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6: APRIL GOLD
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GCJ5 O=0.90 HI=3.50 LO=9.90 CL=2.90

I bought 441.60. When we made the double 5 minute candle top and the failure hit I rolled my stop to 442.90 and was stopped at .70 ... $110 and dang proud of it :)

440-450 $10 channel for tomorrow.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.67 HI=.40 LO=.25 CL=.00

I watched again today. For tomorrow, if we see it, lets sell afailed retest of 52.00 or buy a break above that level. Stop on the buy is 5187 and get it to B/E by 52.11. On the sell lets stop it at 52.11 and make it B/E as 5190 breaks.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=70 HI=76 LO=29 CL=38

A nice orderly break south off the open. Too bad it wasn't a number of ours. We'll still focus on 1720 tomorrow.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.15 HI=2.16 1/2 LO=2.13 1/4 CL=2.16 1/4

Stopped out at 2.14 1/4 for 1 3/4 cents, $87. I was too busy elsewhere ... take a guess? I probably should have bought again near the 2.13 1/2 but didn't. If you did, you did right. Combine Monday's comments with those from weekend TT and you got the plan for manana.
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10: MARCH WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.37 HI=3.42 LO=3.36 CL=3.40 3/4

Sold 3.37 3/4 and got stopped out at 3.38 1/2 for a $37 loss. I then bought 1 at 3.38 1/2. I bailed at 3.41 1/4. We were getting close to EOD and I had no intention of carrying this home with the array of reports tomorrow. TT numbers for tomorrow ... again.

Traders Helping Traders Daily update for Wednesday Mar. 9, 2005

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Erich's Update for Wednesday, March 9, 2005
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The Members got this on Tuesday evening, but the Test Drive edition is sent after the fact. To get yours on time and in full, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2 1/2 HI=5 1/4 LO=1 3/4 CL=4 1/4

Corn showed us some support today in the 211 area. Prices reacted to support a bit early as they only made it to 211 3/4. No matter. A higher session tomorrow will get me looking long again.

If you wanted to be aggressive on the trade you could buy in above today's high; however we've got a big report out later this week so we could see prices flounder a bit.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=80 HI=70 LO=55 CL=52

Bit of a surprise today in the cotton market as support held and prices rallied higher. I'm still on the look out for a retracement of sorts; however I'll also look at buying on a break of the resistance on today's high.

If you decide to try either of these trades, remember this is cotton, a market that can be very wild at times.

*BUY May Cotton at 5181
*Stop 5143
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $190 per contract
*Profit Target: 5487
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1530 per contract
*RRR: 8:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL May Cotton at 5029
*Stop 5066
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $185 per contract
*Profit Target: 4806
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1115 per contract
*RRR: 6:1 *Degree of Risk: HIGH
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=82 HI=73 LO=65 CL=43

If you left your buy order in until today's close you would have been filled long during the last hour of trading. Not my favourite way to get into a market as closing range can be almost as unpredictably as opening range.

Leave exit stops where they are and keep your fingers crossed for tomorrow. We definitely need a bit of luck to stay in this trade without getting our stops hit.
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O=10 HI=40 LO=90 CL=25

Do you see what I see? I'm talking about that tiny little pennant that has formed in cattle over the last couple of days. It's pretty obvious the market isn't sure what's going to happen next with both bulls and bears sitting on the fence.

We can sit on the fence too and be ready for them once they make their move. I would look at placing two orders for tomorrow, one to buy and another to sell; although I would much prefer to sell this market rather than buy it, but we'll see what we get.

*BUY April Live Cattle at 89.72
*Stop 89.37
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $140 per contract
*Profit Target: 91.32
*Approximate Profit Potential: $640 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL April Live Cattle at 88.67
*Stop 89.07
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $160 per contract
*Profit Target: 85.42
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 8:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=90 HI=99 LO=67 CL=69

Boink! 1800...what did I tell you? Okay, now the big question is whether it will hold or not. I'm hoping so, but it might be a little premature to sell below today's low. I'm hoping for another lower session tomorrow so that we can sell below that.

Please cocoa, don't run away on us again! Pretty please!
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=31 HI=41 LO=30 1/2 CL=37 1/4

Wheat played out much like the Bean Oil trade today where prices rallied from the open but didn't find our buy until closing range. If you did get filled you'll have to leave exit stops alone for tomorrow and cross your fingers and toes that we don't get our stops hit.

First profit target 365 1/4.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=71 HI=48 LO=70 CL=47

Nuts. Few things are as disappointing in trading as lining up a market only to have it gap your entry and void your trade. That's what the CD did to us today as rates posted a tremendous rally. We've got resistance at 8265 - 8270 nearby. Maybe we'll get another chance at this market before the weekend.
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8: MARCH SILVER
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SIH5 HI=1 LO=9.5 C=3.8

Today's silver spike looks much more impressive on the daily chart than it really is. While we were flat this trade today, if you had tried to buy it with yesterday's parameters you would have been gapped this morning as the regular session began at 749 and quickly shot to 753 and the high of the day shortly after that. All in all it would have been a VERY difficult move to catch.

No doubt silver's looking strong again, but in all honesty I can't put together a trade that I'm really comfortable with. Hopefully we'll see prices settle down a bit and give us another chance in a day or two.
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O=.965 HI=.975 LO=.93 CL=.97

What is it with all the opening gaps today? The ED gapped our entry as well which put the trade on hold for opening range. After the first 30 minutes the market was still trading below our entry so I pulled the trade.

It really was a judgement call as we only missed by a couple of ticks. If you took the trade anyway then you're currently short. If you can afford the trade, leave stops where they are, otherwise bring them above today's high by a couple of points.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815. You can also reach him via email at [email protected] www.OptimusFutures.com
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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, March 8, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=2-30 HI=2-31 LO=2-08 CL=2-14

A sizable gap down open took us below 113-00. We sold 112-29 and were stopped out at 112-20 on a -19 stop for 9 ticks, $287. We then sold 112-15. This one was stopped out at 112-11 adding 4 ticks $125. I sold again at 112-14 and was stopped out at B/E. we ended our attempts for the day.

The close at 112-14 has us in proximity to 112-16; that becomes the focus for tomorrow. Don't trade right off the -14 if we open there. Make it go back up a bit and come back thru it before jumping anything.
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2: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH5 O=.005 HI=.005 LO=.000 CL=.002

I'm out at 97.000 ... B/E. We only have about a week to go before Last Trading Day. Tomorrow I will begin folowing the June contract and will have an analysi for you tomorrow. Notice, I said analysis, not a trade. We'll see.
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3: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDH5 O=71 HI=48 LO=70 CL=47

A power move that never gave us a shot. It's back to the drawing board. There isn't any structure up here I'd be comfortable trading, so we watch a bit.
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4: MARCH MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTH5 O=4.30 HI=5.50 LO=7.20 CL=7.80

We sold 644.20 after the initial opening climb failed rather dramatically. We were stopped out at 638.90 collecting $530. I couldn't get back on a number after that although I watched pretty intently for the balance of the day.

It is becoming increasingly clear that I am daytrading here. The volatility is such that it is demanded. I don't know that I like the feel of this despite the fact we've thus far done passably with our trades. I am listening every minute for the other shoe to drop. I've also been somewhat dismayed by the market demanding bigger stops and less agressive rolls than I'm comfortable with. We'll continue our little experiment but the jury is still out.

We are back to the same level from our initial TT writeup ... 640.00 and more specifically the 637.90 level we'd ID'd as the sell trigger. Go back to the 2/27 edition and reacquaint yourself with the numbers there for that is the active plan for tomorrow.
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5: MARCH $5 DOW
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EYMH5 O=925 HI=956 LO=900 CL=917

Nothing here today. I'm an observer again.
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6: APRIL GOLD
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GCJ5 O=6.90 HI=1.30 LO=6.70 CL=1.10

Nothing today, focus for tomorrow shifts to the 440-450 channel. $10 Channel tomorrow. Be sure of the confirm and let it get out of the decision making zone before going after anything.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.80 HI=.70 LO=.55 CL=.52

Nothing here today. I spectating tomorrow.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=90 HI=99 LO=67 CL=69

We started the day staedily climbing only to give it all up right at the end of the session. We'll still focus on 1720 tomorrow.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.12 1/2 HI=2.15 1/4 LO=2.11 3/4 CL=2.14 1/4

We did get the better of the 2 alternative orders ... out at 2.12 1/4 in the night picking up 4 1/2 cents, $225. I bought 2.12 1/2 this morning shortly after the open. Other than one quick foray up to 2.13 3/4 we spent much of the day wallowing around at 2.12 1/2 to 2.13 1/4. In the final hour we moved up to 2.15 1/4. I'm doing much the same as yesterday, only in reverse. I have the stop now at 2.14 1/4 and a limit order to take profit at 2.16 1/4. Pretty much a carbon copy of the thought processes from yesterday.

If I get taken out overnight, I'll be back on 2.17 tomorrow ... buying a break above 2.18 and selling a failed retest of 2.17
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10: MARCH WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.31 HI=3.41 LO=3.30 1/2 CL=3.37 1/4

We bought 3.31 1/2. With the exception of a couple of small pullbacks we climber higher most all day accelerating in the last hour. I was pretty committed to keeping this trade open overnight. I was keeping a hard eye on the big resistance overhead at 3.38 though. When we hit 3.41 I moved my stop to 3.39 3/4. I did not want this thing backing up on me and I SURE didn't want to be hanging around very long if we broke back below 3.40. They threw me out at 3.39 1/2. As it turned out I was pretty happy about that as we plunged to 3.36 in the final 5 minutes before settling at 3.37 1/4.

Tomorrow we'll play off 3.38 just exactly as we described in TT from the weekend. Buy the break above; sell the failed retest as it drives lower.
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