Monday, March 07, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition for Marsh 6th, 2005

Trader Betts Hit List for this week! Go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/TraderBetts/HitList_030605.html

In this week's Big Weekend Edition Erich mentions a rather nifty idea! Go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/testdrive.html to check it out.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday March 4th, 2005

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Erich's Update for Friday, March 4, 2005
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Subscribers got these on Thurday evening, Test Drivers get 'em after the fact. To get yours fresh from the source, go to
http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=7 1/4 HI=8 1/4 LO=6 CL=8

So did you try it? Did you try to pick off corn from the low today? If you did it worked out pretty well as prices closed reasonably high, which looks good for tomorrow.

Yes, I know it's a Friday and I know I don't normally like initiating a trade on a Friday; however everything is looking as though prices should rally from here. NOTE: you do not have to take this trade tomorrow. If prices rally there will be another chance to enter long on Monday. Entering next week is much safer than entering tomorrow.

*BUY May Corn at 219 1/4
*Stop 215 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 239 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1025 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=00 HI=60 LO=35 CL=52

Great. Here we've got another market setting up for a Friday trade...and it's cotton no less. What can we do though? All the factors are in order, well almost all. Prices took a good bounce off support today, but it would have been nicer to see RSI closer to the 50% level. That would have made this a slam-dunk trade for tomorrow. But alas, you can't have everything (where would you put it?)

Keep in mind that cotton can be VERY unpredictable on a Friday. Like the corn buy, there is nothing saying you HAVE to trade this market tomorrow. If prices head higher as we suspect, there will be another buy opportunity on Monday. Got it?

*BUY May Cotton at 5076
*Stop 5028
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 5229
*Approximate Profit Potential: $765 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=95 HI=06 LO=62 CL=97

Bean Oil prices showed us a bit of support today at the 38% retracement level (of the big downtrend) with the higher closing price. I'm torn as to whether I should look to buy the market above the high tomorrow or if I should be a little more demanding and wait for a breakout above this week's high. Think I'll stick with Plan "B" for now, but if you wanted to be more aggressive a break above 2306 (say 2311) might be a good time to get in long.

*BUY May Bean Oil at 2357
*Stop 2329
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $168 per contract
*Profit Target: 2459
*Approximate Profit Potential: $612 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O=80 HI=77 LO=60 CL=70

Here we go again. Ever hear "buy the rumor, sell the fact"? Well that's exactly what we've got happening in Cattle right now as US ranchers are attempting to block Canadian cattle from being imported this Monday, when the ban was supposed to be lifted. Just a little too wacky right now to consider trading here. Best to sit and watch in my opinion.
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=35 HI=42 LO=05 CL=29

Another market that's giving us a good buying opportunity tomorrow as prices rallied once more after touching the 1705 support line. Dare we try and buy cocoa on a Friday? I don't think it's for me, but the option is certainly there. I'm going to hold out for a 1670 support test, but whether we get it or not will be another story.
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=37 HI=39 LO=34 1/2 CL=38

As you probably guessed by now, wheat followed the other grain markets today, giving us a fairly small but bullish range. The market seems to have taken a bit of a bounce off the 335 support line and managed to close fairly high for the session. Just like the other markets there is NO URGENCY to buy this market tomorrow. Chances are it will be a moderate session so there should be another chance to buy on Monday.

*BUY May Wheat at 340 1/4
*Stop 334 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 365 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1250 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=52 HI=56 LO=13 CL=54

Today's range didn't do much to improve the outlook of the Canadian Dollar. The market is still a mess. Rates broke the 8040 support but snapped back after encountering the 8012 resistance. Don't see anything I want to risk money on tomorrow.
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8: MARCH SILVER
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SIH5 O=2.5 HI=3 LO=1 CL=2.9

What a day. Silver tried to trade a little higher but never managed to put together a serious effort. Resistance kept us out of a potentially bad trade...thank goodness. As tempting as it is to run today's trade tomorrow, I think I'll pass. Few things scare me as much as the thought of holding an open silver contract over the weekend. No thanks.
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O=.005 HI=.35 LO=.98 CL=.99

You call that a pullback? I sure hope that's not the end of it 'cus selling from here is not going to do much to improve our profit potential. While the ED is normally a tame market, I'll wait for confirmation of resistance before selling. Maybe we'll see the market rally a little higher first.
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10: WILD CARD - APRIL LEAN HOGS
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LHJ5 O=65 HI=60 LO=55 CL=10

Hog prices should have continued lower today; however it looks as though some of cattle's strength spilled over into the hog pits. Doesn't matter really, as our sell order was never in danger. Sitting this one out tomorrow.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, March 4, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=2-02 HI=2-08 LO=1-28 CL=1-31

The first buy at 112-03 ended in a B/E. Second buy with 2 ticks in the black ... we bought at -03 and were stopped at -05 when -07 failed. I gave up on that play. The narrow range kept us sidelined from there. The close at 111-31 sets up 112-00 as the initial focus for tomorrow. Depending on opening gaps and direction of travel, the next play comes either at 112-16 or 111-16.
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2: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH5 O=.990 HI=.997 LO=.99 CL=.992

Another day of abject boredom ... lol.
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3: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDH5 O=43 HI=48 LO=02 CL=46

It took about all the will power I had but I passed ont he buy after the failure at 8002. Tell you the truth had I been able to get a fill at 5 or under, I would have taken it. The only shot I had was a bid at 8010 and I judged that to far gone for me. That would have meant about a $130 risk. I was unwilling. Turns out we coulda' made a couple of hundred. Oh well. I'll happily give up the 2 yards in exchange for the integrity of following my methods. What with the bonds being so quiet and the Euro being the Euro, I was itchin' for a go, too. Tomorrow we'll look again at all the TT numbers as well as 8000.
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4: MARCH MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTH5 O=7.30 HI=8.50 LO=6.50 CL=7.90

We sold 637.70 abiout 10:30 CST. As suggested in TT, we rolled to 634.70 on the break of 634.30. They, almost immediately, came and got us ... out at 634.70 for $300. That was it for the day. It turned again and screamed right back to the resistance just above 640. Again tempting to buy 635. We wouldn't have made the profits all the way back to 640 from there so I don't feel too bad in not jumping it. Looks like we'd have been stopped out with maybe a hundred or so on the pullback from 637 about 12:20 or so. Same numbers for tomorrow from TT.
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5: MARCH $5 DOW
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EYMH5 O=809 HI=823 LO=804 CL=818

again we started the RTH window just shyy of the 10840 line and acelerated hard all the way to 10872 falling just short of yesterday's high. I sold 10842 in a fluke fill and were stopped out at 10845 for a $15 loss. We then sold 10836. We eventually made it down to 10767. I rolled the stop to 10773 and was stopped out at 10778 for $290. We turned on a dime right there and, same as th eRussell, zoomed back to the big resistance at 10840/50.

I'm back on the same TT numbers once again for tomorrow.
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6: APRIL GOLD
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GCJ5 O=4.20 HI=4.30 LO=0.10 CL=0.80

I did 2 buys which both ended in B/E fashion. By then we were approaching the final hour. I buttoned it up for the day. $10 Channel tomorrow. Be sure of the confirm and let it get out of the decision making zone before going after anything.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.00 HI=.60 LO=.35 CL=.52

Be careful tomorrow ... I'm a watcher tomorrow. Too whippy for me to get comfortable with RRR on anything.

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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=35 HI=42 LO=05 CL=29

We just need to build a little more structurebefore doing anything up here.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.17 1/4 HI=2.18 1/4 LO=2.16 CL=2.18

Yeah, Tom, great set up ... it just forgot to go anywhere. I sold .16 3/4 stopped out at 18 1/4 ...lost a penny and a half, $75. Same exact deal tomorrow.
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10: MARCH WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.44 HI=3.46 1/2 LO=3.38 3/4 CL=3.40 1/2

Both Corn and Wheat made me think of Randy newman today ... remember his "Small People". I could just hear him singing about little bitty ranges :) Nothing even close today. I'll see how I feel at the open tomorrow. I may look at the same number discussed yesterday, I may watch, I may take a whack at a failed retest of 3.38. It's ugly right now.
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