Monday, February 21, 2005

Daily Update for Friday, February 18, 2005

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ERICH'S TRADES: Daily Update for Friday, February 18, 2005
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Link du jour:
Free Central: freebies for Traders
http://www.free-central.net

"I finally know what distinguishes man from the other beasts - financial worries." - Jules Renard
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1: MARCH CORN
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CH5 O-8 HI-0 LO-8 CL-9 1/4

And there's the bounce! Now that we have confirmed support it seems much more likely that corn has indeed changed from a bear trend to a more bullish one. I'd like to buy this market, but tomorrow's Friday, so I think I'll hold off one more day and try to enter next week.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O-80 HI-97 LO-41 CL-66

Another so-so day in cotton. Obviously the market is debating its current direction and trying to decide whether market conditions justify the current price.

I still think we're due for a pullback, but since the market is now in an uptrend I'll refrain from trying to countertrend trade it, especially on a Friday.
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3: MARCH BEAN OIL
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BOH5 O-80 HI-10 LO-63 CL-82

Well, we did get a rally in beans today as well. The indecisive close doesn't make me want to rush out and buy bean oil tomorrow however. Like corn, I think we may have seen the market adopt a new direction and we'll look seriously at buying this market early next week - unless something drastic happens tomorrow of course.
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O-70 HI-05 LO-17 CL-30

I really really considered selling cattle tomorrow on a break of the very strong support at 8715. RSI is also hooking, and right at the 50% level, so I'm pretty confident about the market direction. The only problem is initiating a trade in this market on a Friday and holding it over the weekend. It might be fine, but I think I'll pass and pick it up on Monday if we see a break tomorrow. Hope I don't regret it.
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5: MARCH COCOA
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CCH5 O-60 HI-98 LO-60 CL-96

Obviously we didn't get the move we were looking for in cocoa today as the trendline held and prices rallied higher. Seems that 1560 was stronger than I thought but I'm not totally convinced.

I'd love to see a reaction off of 1600 tomorrow, this would continue to keep me bearish next week.
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6: MARCH WHEAT
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WH5 O-3 1/2 HI-7 LO-3 CL-5 1/2

Wheat seems to be following the other grain markets higher today, although the market wasn't as aggressive as corn and bean oil. Still, if prices continue higher tomorrow this would confirm a higher support level and get us thinking about buying this market.
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7: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDH5 O-97 HI-55 LO-89 CL-34

So what did I tell you about 8160? See how it held the market down today? I still think the market's heading higher, but the problem is structuring a trade for a Friday, where we can get in and pick up a few bucks without having to hold for the weekend.

A better plan for daytraders than us position traders. The area to keep your eye on? Yep, you guessed it, 8160. If you see a bounce here tomorrow [which I think you might] sell, but only for the short term.
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8: MARCH SILVER
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SIH5 O-7 HI-3 LO-7.5 CL-7

Why do we have to get these setups on a Friday for cryin' out loud?!?! We've got a nice test of the resistance on the high today and a chance that the market will continue higher tomorrow; however it is a Friday and this is silver. Feel like getting whipped? I sure don't.
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O–.15 HI–.20 LO–.13 CL–.19

If you were short the ED this week you likely got stopped out for a small profit as the market hiccupped today. Might see a little more of that tomorrow as rates are likely to test the 9622 area. Nothing new to do until next week.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card trade - yet.