Thursday, February 17, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Updates

==================================================
PART ONE: Erich's Trades for Thursday, February 17, 2005
==================================================
Check out the latest four live class webinar movies!
http://www.supportandresistance.com/supportandresistance.html

==================================================
1: MARCH CORN
==================================================
Corn fell off today, as we thought it might. Notice where the low of the day was? Yep, right at the 196 1/2 support line. RSI is also at a testpoint, so we could see a bounce from here, but I would prefer a break of the trendline and a test of the contract lows.

==================================================
2: MAY COTTON
==================================================
It never fails...everytime I break my own rules the marke turns around and bites me in the ass. This is exactly what happened in cotton today as we got whipped out of our countertrend trade.

Nothing for me here for Thursday.

==================================================
3: MARCH BEAN OIL
==================================================
BOH5 O-60 HI-60 LO-43 CL-56

Interesting day in Bean Oil today. The market is at a serious crossroads as we've got a testing of the RSI trendline as well as the bullish price trendline. It looks as though prices showed us some support today at the familiar 1940 region; however we won't know until tomorrow's session whether the bulls or bears will take control.

My hunch is that prices will rally...but that's just a coin toss.

==================================================
4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
==================================================
LCJ5 O-20 HI-75 LO-15 CL-67

Cattle rallied today, so the market never found our sell order. With the opening gap we would have had a hard time getting the long side of the trade too...but that's just sour grapes.

Nothing here tomorrow.

==================================================
5: MARCH COCOA
==================================================
CCH5 O-62 HI-88 LO-56 CL-65

Today saw a little indecision in the cocoa market. I sure hope that we see a moderately bearish day tomorrow without prices running away on us 'cus then I'll sell the beans out of the market on Friday...yes, even on a Friday, providing the set up is right.

==================================================
6: MARCH WHEAT
==================================================
WH5 O-7 1/2 HI-8 1/2 LO-2 CL-2 1/2

Wheat did some serious backing up today as prices broke the 297 support right from the open. RSI has also broken the trendline and I'm interested in selling but we've got the darn contract lows to deal with.

Trying really hard to be patient and not trade here tomorrow.

==================================================
7: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
==================================================
CDH5 O-14 HI-25 LO-29 C-88

While rates did fall off a bit today, they did a substantial recovery off the 8020 support area, getting only as low as 8029 before flinching.

I'd like to buy this market; however the resistance at 8160 is putting me on hold for tomorrow.

==================================================
8: MARCH SILVER
==================================================
SIH5 O-3.5 HI-6 LO-1.5 CL-5.5

Got a lower session today as I hoped; however the high closing price doesn't bode well for selling tomorrow. Besides, I've had my fill of countertrend trades this week. Think I'll just hang back and look for the next good buy. But I do think we will see at least a bit of a pullback.

==================================================
9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
==================================================
EDZ5 O–.215 HI–.270 LO–.140 CL–.155

Big drop in the ED today as prices broke support in a big way. If you left stops where they were then you are currently short this market; otherwise today's range might have stopped you out. Bring stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow or use the intraday resistance at 9619 to place stops above.

First profit target is 96.025.

==================================================
10: WILD CARD - ARPIL LEAN HOGS
==================================================
LHJ5 O-40 HI-55 LO-40 CL-90

Hogs rallied sharply today as prices rallied right from the open. Got a bit of a reaction to the 7450 resistance today. A break above here will change my posture from selling to buying. I'd like to see a little more reinforcement before I commit however.

==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-870-3327. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]

================================================
PART TWO: "Tom's Trades" for Thursday, February 17, 2005
================================================
================================================
1: MARCH 30 YEAR T BOND
================================================
USDH5 O-5-25 HI-5-27 LO-4-28 CL-5-08

Th eopen wasn't quite tall enough to let us sell near the open. I waited for the break of 16 and got one sold at 115-15. We took it down to 114-28 and I bailed at 115-02 for 13 ticks. Bought 1 at 115-03 and was stopped out at at B/E. Did it again at -03 and out at -05 givin me a total of 15 ticks $468.

For tomorrow we are focused on 2 numbers ... 115-16 or 115-00. We'll buy or sell at either level.

===============================================
2: MARCH EURODOLLAR
===============================================
EDH5 O—.020 HI—.022 LO—.005 CL—.005

TT numbers for the 6,744th straight day ... lol.

===============================================
3: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR ===============================================
CDH5 O-14 HI-25 LO-29 CL-88

We sold on the break of 8100 at 8095. When we got down in the area of 8050-40 the first priority became profit preservation. I rolled the stop to 8051 and was stopped out at 55 for $400. I should have bought 8060 but it was getting close to EOD and I was a little distracted.

Tomorrow we are back on the TT numbers.

===============================================
4: APRIL GOLD
===============================================
GCJ5 O-6.00 HI-7.10 LO-3.40 CL-6.90

I opened the day buying 1 at 424.30. As we passed thru 426 I brought my stop to 425.70 and was stopped out there as we pulled back from 426.30 picking up $140. I bought again at 424.20. We made it back to 426.00 and time was getting short in the RTH so I exited at 426.20 adding $200 to the day's take. All done with $340.

$10 channel of 430/420 for tomorrow, gang ... along with the 424.00 S&R line as well.

===============================================
5: MARCH COTTON
===============================================
CTH5 O-.90 HI-.95 LO-.25 CL-.20

The big break at the open took me by surprise. I just left it alone for the day.

We ended the day at 46.20 nwhich is a strong area of S&R. I'll buy a break above 46.29 or sell a break below 46.18 tomorrow. The stops are the reciprocal number from the unfilled side. Keep RRR under control at all times. I'll also look to sell a failed retest of near 47.00. Yes, that is a double top. Very short stop from there.

===============================================
6: MAY COCOA
===============================================
COK5 O-85 HI-99 LO-76 CL-85

We have moved to MAY COCOA. I actually should have alerted you to this over the weekend. I was asleep at the switch as Monday was last trading day. I'm lucky I didn't get delivered on yesterday but then I wasn't in long enough for anyone to notice I was there.

Tomorrow I'm looking for a failed test at 1600 as the trigger for a sell and the break above it as a buy. Stops are 1603 on the sell and 1597 on the buy. get the trade to B/E at 1611 on the buy and 1591 on the sell. Remember the long run rule. 1540 will be a difficult number for us to break on the sell and 1670 on the buy. Roll stops very tight in proximity to either number.

===============================================
7: MARCH CORN
===============================================
CH5 O=1.98 HI=1.98 1/4 LO=1.96 3/4 CL=1.97

The gap down put me on the sidelines and then they never gave us a shot at anything.

1.97 area is very strong support. I'll buy 1 as we break above 1.97 1/2 tomorrow. That doesn't leave us much room to 2.00 so be a scalper. I think I'd prefer to wait for 1.95 to show itself before buying. Use your own judgement. I'd characterize the 1.97 1/2 trade as high risk. Cobduct yourselves accordingly.

===============================================
8: MARCH WHEAT
===============================================
WH5 O=2.97 1/2 HI=2.98 1/2 LO=2.92 CL=2.92 1/2

I tried to get 1 sold but it moved away too quickly. I sold 2.94 3/4 later in the day. I was stopped out at 2.93 1/4 for a penny and a half of fun.

Back to the TT numbers for now. ===============================================
==================================================
PART ONE: Erich's Trades for Wednesday, February 16, 2005
==================================================
Hot off the commodity presses to you!
Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com

"I finally know what distinguishes man from the other beasts - financial worries." - Jules Renard

==================================================
FYI
==================================================
Sorry for the delay in tonight's update. I'm out of town until tomorrow when things will get back to normal. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Erich

==================================================
1: MARCH CORN
==================================================
CH5 O-9 1/2 HI-0 1/4 LO-8 3/4 CL 0

A more subdued day for corn today as prices failed to trade beyond yesterday's high. Double hit on 198 3/4 support might be broken tomorrow, but I can't see enough profit potential before running into the 196 1/2 support to make it worthwhile.

Standing aside for now, but it could be a good little day trade if that's your thing.

==================================================
2: MAY COTTON
==================================================
CTK5 O-80 HI-60 LO-60 CL-91

I have to admit that cotton has rallied higher than I thought it could. Today's range did look a little more bearish as we've got a pretty low close. Volume is also drying up, so it doesn't look like the bulls have too much steam left right now.

I wouldn't normally suggest this, since it is a counter trend trade and they have a tendency not to work out very well, but cotton can be a big mover and I think it's overdue for a correction; therefore I might look at selling cotton on a break of today's low and see how far I can trade it down.

Watch out around 4540, it could get a little bumpy.

*SELL May Cotton at 4657
*Stop 4696
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $195 per contract
*Profit Target: 4501
*Approximate Profit Potential: $780 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

==================================================
3: MARCH BEAN OIL
==================================================
BOH5 O-85 HI-89 LO-55 CL-62

The market confirmed our resistance today and interestingly enough, RSI is at a test point as well. I think we'll see prices head lower tomorrow, although it would not be uncommon to expect another bounce. I want to sell this market however we've got a bundle of support just below us that is giving me pause. The only "safe" place to sell from is the contract lows.

==================================================
4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
==================================================
LCJ5 O-95 HI-15 LO-70 CL-02

Cattle prices stalled out today as prices battled with the 8720 resistance. Might look at selling tomorrow if we break the 8750 - 8755 support. I'll keep the trade pretty tight though, just in case things turn sour.

*SELL April Live Cattle at 86.475 *Stop 86.825 *Approximate Risk Exposure: $140 per contract *Profit Target: 85.225 *Approximate Profit Potential: $500 per contract *RRR: 3 1/2:1 *Degree of Risk: Moderate

==================================================
5: MARCH COCOA
==================================================
CCH5 O-42 HI-80 LO-42 CL-70

Our cocoa trade stopped us out today as the market rallied right from the open. Too bad because I think we were on the right side of this trade, but might have gotten in a touch early.

Think I'll sit this one out tomorrow.

==================================================
6: MARCH WHEAT
==================================================
WH5 O-1 1/4 HI-1 1/4 LO-8 CL-9 1/4

If you brought stops to breakeven you would have been stopped out today as wheat lost some of it's earlier momentum. If you used the 297 support or left stops where they were, then you're still long this market.

RSI is at a testpoint, so we could see a bounce, and higher prices tomorrow. I've still got my stops under 297, but let your account be your guide when it comes to managing this trade.

==================================================
7: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
==================================================
CDH5 O10 HI40 LO€87 CL21

We're getting closer to the 8150 line in the sand, where we shift our attention from bearish to bullish. RSI is at a test point however, so I'm thinking we could see a resumption of the downtrend from here. A confirmation of today's resistance at 8140 will get me short on Thursday.

==================================================
8: MARCH SILVER
==================================================
SIH5 O-4 HI-0.5 LO-1 CL-6

Silver remains unreasonably strong. I'm not sure what's driving this market now, but volume is drying up a bit so I think we could see a reversal very soon.

I haven't decided if I'm going to try to get on board, but we could see a substantial pullback...maybe as far as 682. If we get a good setup tomorrow I might consider a countertrend trade for Thursday. Maybe.

==================================================
9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
==================================================
EDZ5 O–.235 HI–.255 LO–.215 CL–.22

Near identical day to yesterday's range. We've got a clear support area to sell below if you're not already short. For those of us already short this market, bring stops in above today's high (or leave them where they are) if you wanted to take a little risk out of the trade.

==================================================
10: WILD CARD - ARPIL LEAN HOGS
==================================================
LHJ5 O-45 HI-07 L-85 CL-00

This one is a borderline trade - this morning the market opened with a slight gap, just marginally enough to make you pause. If you did pause you likely missed your fill as the market fell like a rock out of the gate, and after opening range prices were still below our entry so you likely scrubbed the trade.

Things didn't fair so well if you did take the trade right away however as the market backed up after finding support on the low. Don't beat yourself up over this one however - prices *should* have continued lower.

Based on the strong close I think we might see a higher session tomorrow, but I'm not ready to buy just yet.

================================================
PART TWO: "Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, February 16, 2005
================================================
================================================
1: MARCH 30 YEAR T BOND
================================================
USDH5 O-6-04 HI-6-04 LO-5-21 CL-5-27

I passed on the first break of 116-00. I did sell the second one at 115-29 and got stopped out at 25 for plus 4. We went no where for th ebalance of the day.

The close at 115-27 sets up 2 areas of interest. First would be aretest of 116-00 followed by a failure for a sell. I will also buy a break above 116-00. The second area would be a move to 115-16 from here. We'll sell the break below, we'll buy the retst and failure as it heads higher.

===============================================
2: MARCH EURODOLLAR
===============================================
EDH5 O—.015 HI—.017 LO—.015 CL—.017

TT numbers for the 6,743rd straight day ... lol.

===============================================
3: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
===============================================
CDH5 O-10 HI-40 LO-87 CL-21

I watched the opening hour and chose t stand aside for the day. The swings were just uncomfortable for me.

All the same numbers from TT again tomorrow.

===============================================
4: APRIL GOLD
===============================================
GCJ5 O-4.20 HI-7.70 LO-4.00 CL-7.30

I sold 428.20 and just huing out for the better part of the first half of the session. We finally got a little something goingonly to lock up again. We traded 40 cents for a long time. It became clear we weren't going to test 424 so I cashed it in ... out at 425.60 picking uo $260.

$10 channel of 430/420 for tomorrow, gang ... along with the 424.00 S&R line as well.

===============================================
5: MARCH COTTON
===============================================
CTH5 O-.95 HI-.90 LO-.85 CL-.28

I bought 46.00. When we broke .40 I rolled the stop to .23 and was stopped at .20 for a yard. I then bought 46.05 and grabbed it 46.45 for another $200. I bought a third time at 46.00 and was spooked out at 46.30 for an additional $150. Cotton was all over the map today. I did Ok all things consiered but it was not much fun. I took a lot of risk, for me, with all the choppiness today. I was definitely more lucky than good today.

I'll play the numbers from the update yesterday for tomorrow. I will be a whole lot more conservative tomorrow as well.

===============================================
6: MARCH COCOA
===============================================
COH5 O-42 HI-80 LO-42 CL-70

I bought 1 at 1564 and was stopped out at 63 losing $10. Pitiful.

The numbers from TT again tomorrow.

===============================================
7: MARCH CORN
===============================================
CH5 O=1.99 1/2 HI=2.00 1/4 LO=1.98 3/4 CL=2.00

Sold 1.99 1/2 and was stopped out at 2.00 1/4 for 3/4 cent loss, $37.

All the same numbers fromm yesterday's update.

===============================================
8: MARCH WHEAT
===============================================
WH5 O=3.01 1/4 HI=3.01 1/4 LO=2.98 CL=2.99 1/4

Sold 2.99 1/2, stopped out at B/E. Ugly day.

TT numbers and numbers from yesterday's update prevail tomorrow.

===============================================
==================================================
PART ONE: Erich's Trades Tuesday, February 15, 2005
==================================================
Hot off the commodity presses to you!
Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com

==================================================
FYI
==================================================

Happy Valentines Day! Sorry for the delay in the update. I'm out of town Monday and Tuesday and a computer connection can be a little hard to come by. Things will be back to normal by Wednesday.

Sorry for the inconvenience.

Erich

==================================================
1: MARCH CORN
==================================================
CH5 O 1 1/2 HI 7 3/4 LO-8 1/2 CL 0 1/2

Huge opening gap in corn today, but the market managed to remain relatively bullish after testing last week's resistance - now support. Looks as though corn might continue higher tomorrow, but honestly I don't see a good level to buy from just yet.

==================================================
2: MAY COTTON
==================================================
CTK5 O-50 HI-75 LO-05 CL-47

Another bullish day in cotton, but the opening gap, small range, and indecisive close are making me a little reluctant to get on board at this time. The weekend plan is still the best, in which we hope to see resistance now that RSI is testing the trendline.

If we see prices fall off a bit, it will give us another chance to buy from a better price level. Nothing here tomorrow.

==================================================
3: MARCH BEAN OIL
==================================================
BOH5 O-38 HI-40 LO-77 CL-97

Got a bounce off the 2040 resistance today. Hope to see a testing of support in the next few days. Bean Oil is a real mess right now. I think we are seeing the making of a bottom formation, so keep your eye on a reaction to support - it will be our next buy signal.

==================================================
4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
==================================================
LCJ5 O-95 HI-20 LO-55 CL-95

Ouch! That didn't work out as well as I hoped! Cattle dipped just low enough to find our entry order before reversing off support and heading higher. I thought I gave the trade enough room to the downside, but it appears to have been a little on the tight side.

Sitting this one out tomorrow - but I still think we're on the right side of this trade. Might try again Wednesday.

==================================================
5: MARCH COCOA
==================================================
CCH5 O-58 HI-69 LO-32 CL-43

Sold cocoa today as prices broke the 1550 support. We're currently stuck on the 1530 support line and don't have enough room to move our stops yet. If you didn't take today's trade, tomorrow offers a better, more predictable trade, by entering short of the 1530 support.

For those of us short cocoa, keep your fingers crossed that 1530 doesn't bounce prices.

==================================================
6: MARCH WHEAT
==================================================
WH5 O-7 HI-2 1/4 LO-4 1/2 CL-1 3/4

Good day in wheat as prices easily filled our long position. A "perfect" example of how support and resistance kept us out of the trade until prices did what we wanted them to do - a very important lesson to learn!

You could move your stops to breakeven for tomorrow or to the 297 support line. Of course, if you can afford the risk, and have the nerve, you could leave them where they are for one more session...kinda like trading's version of Russian Roulette.

==================================================
7: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
==================================================
CDH5 O-24 HI-28 LO-72 CL-00

Another big opening market. Rates rallied higher but not before falling off a bit from the open. RSI is getting close to a test point and I think we will see lower rates tomorrow. I'll wait for the confirmation before selling and hope the market doesn't run away on me.

==================================================
8: MARCH SILVER
==================================================
SIH5 O-0 HI-5 LO-8.5 CL-4

Yet another bullish day for silver today. This is turning into the "little market that could". We've completed a 50% retracement today so it remains to be seen if we'll get a bounce off this level tomorrow (likely spurred on by profit taking).

Still standing aside as prices are a little too wild for me right now.

==================================================
9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
==================================================
EDZ5 O–.25 HI–.25 LO–.215 CL–.225

The Eurodollar fell off enough to find our short order today; however rates didn't get low enough to allow us much room to move our stops. You could leave them be ($106 risk) or bring them above today's high.

First profit target is 9602, but remember the support at 9617.

==================================================
10: WILD CARD - ARPIL LEAN HOGS
==================================================

LHJ5 Or60 HIs15 LOr45 CLr57

A slightly higher session for hogs today, but notice where the market made its low? Yep, right at the 7240 support line - and this one's a monster. As such I might take a short trade below here tomorrow, or if you prefer, stick with the weekend plan.

*SELL April Lean Hogs at 72.325
*Stop 72.775
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 69.45
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

================================================
PART TWO: "Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, February 15, 2005
================================================
A few hours belated ... but ... to all, a happy St. Valentines Day!!

================================================
1: MARCH 30 YEAR T BOND
================================================
USDH5 O-5-25 HI-6-12 LO-5-24 CL-6-07

I bought 1 at 116-02. We had such a difficult time with 116-12/11 I thought there was a message for me there and rolled the stop to -09 from -07. I was stopped out at -08 for plus 6, $187. From there it never gave us a number to attempt another trade.

We settled at 116-07, so tomorrow we'll be looking for one of 3 things as triggers to our trades. First, a move up to test 116-16 and a failure to kick off a sell off 116-16. Second, a move down to test 116-00 and a failure to press lower allowing us a buy and thirdly, a break of 116-00 which we'll sell.

Be suspect if the first thing we do is break 116-00. If that is indeed what the market does, hold off trading for the first break of 116-00. You can buy the test and failure but do not sell the break initially.

===============================================
2: MARCH EURODOLLAR
===============================================
EDH5 O—.022 HI—.022 LO—.015 CL—.017

Testing the recent lows again. Do we go lower or do we bounce? Very dicey to play in here. Another chart from which a look at the weekly and particularly the monthly provides needed perspective. Were we to see a bounce back into the 97.040 area, I'd be a seller again. Patience is required here.

===============================================
3: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
===============================================
CDH5 O-24 HI-28 LO-72 CL-00

That's a pretty stout gap up on the open ... 43 points or so. I sold 8098 with a stop at 8107 risking $90. At 8072 I squeezed it to 77 and was stopped out at 82. No breaks from those guys at all. Picked up $160. I really wanted to buy the break above 8080. I had a very strong feeling we were irrevocably headed back to 8100. If they given me any green up to 82/84 I think I would have ... sure enough, it jumped but it was too far gone. I might've gotten filled at 88 or, more probably, 90. That just didn't leave enough given we'd MOST LIKELY be done at 8100. We did get to 8108 ... where'd we settle? Why, 8100 on the button of course.

All the same numbers from TT again tomorrow.

===============================================
4: APRIL GOLD
===============================================
GCJ5 O-4.20 HI-7.70 LO-4.00 CL-7.30

Gap up right to 424.00. I bought one at 424.40. I kinda' pushed the limits on EOD. I exited at 427.10 with about 15 minutes to go. I was determined not to let it drop below 427.00 with me still long. Out with $270.

$10 channel of 430/420 for tomorrow, gang ... along with the 424.00 S&R line as well.

===============================================
5: MARCH COTTON
===============================================
CTH5 O-.50 HI-.00 LO-.10 CL-.56

The gap up put us on the sidelines at the start. I set an alarm at 45.10 and went it went off I came back as quick as I could but it had already bounced back to about 45.20. I watched for a bit. Had Cotton retested 45.10 I would have gone with it ... it didn't. Nothing done here.

I'll buy a retest of 45.00 tomorrow ... don't think we'll see it but I'll be ready. I'll also buy a break above 45.90 with a stop very close ... call it 45.73. That should keep risk at about $100 max.

===============================================
6: MARCH COCOA
===============================================
COH5 O-58 HI-69 LO-32 CL-43

I tried to buy the break above 1560 shortly after the open. Best number I got was 1566, so I backed off. I then sold the break back below at 1558 with a stop at 1563 ... just a bit too choppy to put my neck out there too far. We went a whole 3 points and jammed on the brakes. I got real nervous and rolled the stop to B/E. They filled me at 1565 for a loss of $70. I bought one at 1562 and was stopped at 1560 on my B/E stop roll losing another $20. Too choppy for me ... I threw in the towel just in time to see it dump 30 points.

On the TT numbers again tomorrow.

===============================================
7: MARCH CORN
===============================================
CH5 O=2.01 1/2 HI=2.01 3/4 LO=1.98 1/2 CL=2.00 1/2

I sold one at 1.99 3/4. We seriously ran out of gas at 1.98 1/2. Didn't take a genious to figure out we were not going any lower. I bailed at 1.98 3/4 for a penny.

Tomorrow it's the TT numbers as well as selling a failed test of 2.00 or buying the break above 2.00 with a very short stop both ways ... 2.00 3/4 on the sell and 1.98 3/4 on the buy. We are scalping here, remember. Do Not give them an inch

===============================================
8: MARCH WHEAT
===============================================
WH5 O=2.89 1/2 HI=2.97 LO=2.89 CL=2.96 1/4

We bought 1 at 2.96 with a stop at 2.94 3/4. I bailed at 3.00 1/2 picking up 4 1/2 cents, $225. I toyed with the idea of taking this one home tonight. 2 reasons I deceided not to do that. First, this was a relatively long run and the chances of a strong retracement were on my mind. The final nail in the decision coffin was the 3 head thumps on 3.01 followed by a red candle ... see ya'!

We'll look for the break back below 3.00 or a little pullback and then a charge thru 3.00 to buy tomorrow. Other than that it's back to TT numbers.

===============================================