Thursday, February 10, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday, February 9, 2005

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Daily Update for Wednesday, February 9, 2005
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Hot off the commodity presses to you!
Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com

"When prosperity comes, do not use all of it." - Confucius

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1: MARCH CORN
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CH5 O-6 1/2 HI-6 3/4 LO-4 1/2 CL-4 3/4

Corn continued to range today, but that's no surprise given that tomorrow is report day. As before I've got a hard time getting serious about buying this market at the moment, so I'll continue to sell based on the weekend plan.

*SELL March Corn at 193 3/4 *Stop 196 1/4 *Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract *Profit Target: 184 3/4 *Approximate Profit Potential: $450 per contract *RRR: 3 1/2:1 *Degree of Risk: Low

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2: MARCH COTTON
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CTH5 O-05 HI-06 LO-65 CL-70

Big day in cotton, at least for the bears. While prices came down somewhat, today's range is what was most impressive. Still looking to sell, but I'm a little timid around the 4200 support line, which is the line I was referring to from the weekend ezine. RSI is also getting close to being oversold, so I think I'll hold off just a little bit longer.

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3: MARCH BEAN OIL
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BOH5 O-13 HI-22 LO-03 CL-17

Bean Oil held its ground a little better than some of the other markets; however prices were reluctant to wander too far today given that tomorrow is report day. As with the other markets I'm more of a seller than a buyer right now. RSI is at a test point so we could run with the weekend plan, or if you wanted to be more aggressive consider selling below 1900.

*SELL March Bean Oil at 1897 *Stop 1926 *Approximate Risk Exposure: $174 per contract *Profit Target: 1761 *Approximate Profit Potential: $816 per contract *RRR: 4 1/2:1 *Degree of Risk: Moderate

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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O-82 HI-62 LO-57 CL-80

I can't believe the cattle market. Today prices made a run higher; however the low closing price (which is still below the weekly resistance) would suggest that prices didn't care to go much higher.

I'd like to get into this market again, but I'm just not comfortable at these price levels. Sitting this one out tomorrow.

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5: MARCH COCOA
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CCH5 O-08 HI-09 LO-78 CL-94

Cocoa stalled today, as we hoped; however the price range neither confirmed resistance, or support, so we're still stumped. The only thing today's range did was reinforce the 1600 - 1610 resistance, as that's where prices hovered for much of the session.

RSI is at a test point, and while I would normally look at selling from here, I'm going to wait for a confirmation tomorrow.

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6: MARCH WHEAT
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WH5 O-4 1/2 HI-5 LO-9 1/2 CL-1 3/4

I wanted to get more aggressive selling wheat tomorrow however there's too much support below the market to figure out a good entry level. Wheat is also expecting a report out tomorrow which will undoubtably effect prices, but I think I'm going to stick with the same numbers from the weekend.

If you wanted to be more aggressive on the trade consider selling below today's support, probably around 288 3/4.

*SELL March Wheat at 295 3/4 *Stop 289 3/4 *Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract *Profit Target: 266 3/4 *Approximate Profit Potential: $950 per contract *RRR: 4 1/2:1 *Degree of Risk: Moderate

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7: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDH5 O-67 HI-32 LO-56 CL-13

Got stopped out shortly after the open this morning as the CD tried to take back yesterday's profits. Walked with about $400 profit per contract and I'm glad I took it as breakeven would have been a little disappointing today.

Nothing here tomorrow, but I suspect we will see the CD try to find resistance before reversing again.

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8: MARCH SILVER
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SIH5 O-6 H-f0 L-d9 CL-5.7

Caught a break in silver today as prices didn't whipsaw us out of the trade. Too bad that the market came up 7 cents short of our profit target - it would have been a nice scalp. If you haven't done so already bring exit stops to breakeven for tomorrow. The high closing price makes me a little hesitant about tomorrow's action.

Remember to have your stops working overnight as well.

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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O–.25 HI–.26 LO–.225 CL–.255

Less than impressive range in the ED today as we sold the market only to have it back up on us before closing. Not an ideal situation for tomorrow; however we've got the stops pretty tight so any reversal shouldn't be too painful.

First profit target 9617.

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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market tomorrow.

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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, February 8, 2005
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1: MARCH 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDH5 O-6-13 HI-7-06 LO-6-12 CL-6-24

We got the test of 117-00 complete with a little gap at the end and then a good failure. I sold 116-30. We pretty much went right to 116-14. I covered the trade at 116-17 picking up 16 ticks, $500. I had a very tough time not just reversing there and buying at -19 to -21 ... the turn was so smooth and deliberate you just had to believe we were going back to 117-00. It didn't get there and I didn't buy it.

The big question now becomes what to do tomorrow. The only answer for me is to mug another retest of 117-00 that fails.

I'm sure you took notice yesterday and today how well the -00 and -16 worked on the chart even though we didn't play. Just about perfect which makes me fidget and fume to see potential profits being generated by the method while I must sit on my hands. It felt really good to pick their pockets for the $500 today. It would be easy to get caught up in the adrenaline and just go for it, ignoring the absence of structure. See, it's running around in my brain, too. Don't you dare.

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2: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH5 O—.020 HI—.025 LO—.020 CL—.025

I wonder how many days in a row I can't repeat the same play ... :)

More of the same ... nothing. My numbers are still the numbers. I guess you have to assume there is no interest in selling here ... ya' think that might be a chart that has run out of downside go juice? My lord, that is ugly.

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3: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDH5 O-67 HI-32 LO-56 CL-13

I bought 1 at 8010. I rolled to B/E at 8015 and was stopped out at 8008 for -2. I Bought a second time at 8010 and exited at 8025 for $150.

All the same TT numbers for tomorrow.

I was pretty upset with myself on the second trade. I did it more for revenge than as a good solid trade I'd written about in TT. They ticked me off over a 2 tick loss. The psychology of this game is really wicked. They have so many ways of getting inside your noodle and the resultant thoughts are sometimes very hard to keep control of. I share this with you, so you'll know your not the only one. Play this game within yourself. Just like Tom Brady did Sunday. He did not have a particularly great game. What he did do that was so impressive to me was keep under control, play well withing his limits and make sure he didn't allow himself to get caught up in trying to make something happen that contained risk beyond the rewards. I did NOT do as well today as he did Sunday. I tried to make something happen to pay them back for clipping me for 2 ticks. Bad cop, no donut.

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4: APRIL GOLD
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GCJ5 O-3.80 HI-5.80 LO-2.00 CL-4.30

Dang! They did the same thing to us on the bottom end today. Ting, Ting on 412.00 and took off up. I came close to jumping it stuck to the rules. No trade.

$10 channel for tomorrow, gang.

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5: MARCH COTTON
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CTH5 O-.05 HI-.15 LO-.65 CL-.70

I bought 1 at 43.10. I had a stop working at 42.93 but when the big failure went south from 43.05 I cancel replaced my stop to market and was filled at 43.95 for a 15 tick, $75 loser.

Same TT numbers for tomorrow.

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6: MARCH COCOA
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COH5 O-08 HI-09 LO-78 CL-94

I sold 1 at 1597 and was stopped out at 1600 for a loss of $30. I sold again at 1596 and was stopped out at 1604 for an $80 loss. Sold 96 again and bailed at 1580 picking up $160.

All the same TT numbers plus the 1560 trade from yesterday's update.

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7: MARCH CORN
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CH5 O=1.96 1/2 HI=1.96 3/4 LO=1.94 1/2 CL=1.94 3/4

We entered the day, having survived the night "action", long from 1.95 1/2. We were stopped out at B/E about an hour before the close.

I'll do the 1.95 1/2 buy again tomorrow.

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8: MARCH WHEAT
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WH5 O=2.94 1/2 HI=2.95 LO=2.89 1/2 CL=2.91 3/4

We opened and went right to 2.95. I closed out our long from yesterday at 2.94 3/4 for 5 3/4 cents, $287. I then sold one at 2.94 1/4 and was stopped out at 2.90 1/4 for another 4 cents, $200. A very nice day for scalping, I'd say!

Tomorrow I will trade the TT numbers and also buy a break above 2.95.

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RISK DISCLOSURE!

Trading commodity Futures and options on futures involves significant risk. You must consult licensed professionals or your own advisors before trading to determine if it is suitable for you.

Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. You must consult your broker or advisor before making any trade to insure current prices, margin requirements and other factors determinant to suitability. By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers. You agree before doing any trade contained herein to consult your charts and advisors to verify all information and make your own decision.

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading.

For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
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