Thursday, January 27, 2005

Erich's Trades for Thursday, January 27th 2005

==================================================
Erich's Update for Thursday, January 27, 2005
==================================================

The Subscribers got these last night for today's market action...Test Drivers get theirs after the close.

Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com

"Perseverance is the hard work you do after you get tired of doing the hard work you already did." - Newt Gingrich

==================================================
1: MARCH CORN
==================================================

CH5 O-9 1/2 HI-0 3/4 LO-8 1/2 CL-8 3/4

Got a bit of a reaction to the 201 resistance today but not enough to get me short tomorrow. If you wanted to be more aggressive on this trade you could certainly sell below today's low; however I'm going to hold off for a confirmation tomorrow.

==================================================
2: MARCH COTTON
==================================================

CTH5 O-82 HI-35 LO-60 CL-78

Just another whacky day in the Cotton market as prices made a run at our entry, but came up short. Good thing too as prices made a pretty low close which would have whipsawed the trade.

RSI is falling off a bit as well which makes me think we'll see lower prices tomorrow, but I'll stick with the long side for one more day. If prices do fall off we can look at selling support.

==================================================
3: MARCH BEAN OIL
==================================================

BOH5 O-69 HI-74 LO-50 CL-52

Here we go again. Bean Oil gave us a reaction to the resistance today as well as a hook in the RSI indicator. We're VERY close to the support on the contract lows at 1941, and this could turn the market back tomorrow, so consider selling below here if you want to take some of the risk out of the trade.

Otherwise I'll sell below today's low and look to cover the trade above the high. Watching the opening price - we don't want the market gapping us!

*SELL March Bean Oil at 1946 *Stop 1976 *Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract *Profit Target: 1852 *Approximate Profit Potential: $564 per contract *RRR: 3:1 *Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

==================================================
4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
==================================================

LCJ5 O-65 HI-97 LO-17 CL-32

A higher day for Cattle today, but bearish overall as prices closed fairly low. Still looking for a reaction to resistance before selling this market again.

Nothing here tomorrow.

==================================================
5: MARCH COCOA
==================================================

CCH5 O-22 HI-83 LO-20 CL-75

Cocoa took off like a rocket today. I'm not sure what's behind the rally, but I'll be sure to look into it later. Prices blew right through the 1550 resistance and now we're on the sidelines waiting for our next entry signal but I won't be doing anything tomorrow.

==================================================
6: MARCH WHEAT
==================================================

WH5 O-8 HI-9 3/4 LO-5 CL-5 1/4

More resistance at 295 and 299 today. I'm really tempted to sell wheat tomorrow below 295, especially since we're very near to a bounce off the RSI trendline; however I'll resist and look to sell below the contract low as per the weekend plan.

==================================================
7: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
==================================================

CDH5 O-77 HI-45 LO-77 CL-03

The CD held up on the 8145 resistance again today as prices consolidated a bit after yesterday's big decline. We've got the market cornered now (well, almost) and I'll run with the short trade again tomorrow. If we see a bullish break then we'll revert back to the weekend buy.

*SELL March Canadian Dollar at 8053 *Stop 8086 *Approximate Risk Exposure: $330 per contract *Profit Target: 7925 (first target) *Approximate Profit Potential: $1280 per contract *RRR: 3 1/2:1 *Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

==================================================
8: MARCH SILVER
==================================================

SIH5 Og0 HIh5 LOf9.5 CLh0.5

Silver bounced off the RSI trendline today as support seemed to hold - at least for the time being. I'll run with the short trade again tomorrow, but won't be too surprised if we see a bit of a rally, but I'm still not that comfortable buying the market - yet.

*SELL March Silver at 667 *Stop 673.5 *Approximate Risk Exposure: $325 per contract *Profit Target: 641.5 *Approximate Profit Potential: $1275 per contract *RRR: 3 1/2:1 *Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

==================================================
9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
==================================================

EDZ5 O–.325 HI–.350 LO–.295 CL–.30

Same problem in the ED today as yesterday, namely that there isn't enough profit potential either long or short before encountering significant resistance to make a trade worthwhile.

Too bad too since RSI is at a test point and an ideal time to buy/sell. Think I'll just watch for now.

==================================================
10: WILD CARD
==================================================

No wild card market tomorrow.

.

Tom's Trades for Thursday, January 27th 2005

=========================================
"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, January 27, 2005
=========================================
=========================================
1: MARCH 30 YEAR T BOND
=========================================
USDH5 O 3-28 HI 4-07 LO 3-26 CL 3-30

No trades today on a modest range. For the second consecutive day we closed at 113-30. We'll then look at sells at the same level ... 114-00 and 113-16

=========================================
2: MARCH EURODOLLAR
=========================================
EDH5 O—.030 HI—.035 LO—.025 CL—.030

We continue short from 97.040. The trade can still be entered on a retest and susequent failure at .040. We inched a teeny bit lower today. The longer we go without some resolution does not work in our best interests. I will probably dump this trade rather than hold it over the weekend. There is just too much uncertainty in the financials to run the risk of weekend holds at the moment.

=========================================
3: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
=========================================
CDH5 O-77 HI-45 LO-77 CL-03

I bought 1 at 8105. The failure up above 8125 was pretty dramatic ... I bailed. Out at 8121 for $160.

I'll play the TT numbers and those from yesterday for tomorrow. Be careful tomorrow. We ended the day at 8103. Get a good look before you leap.

=========================================
4: FEBRUARY GOLD
=========================================
GCG5 O-3.60 HI-7.80 LO-3.50 CL-6.90

I bought 424.20. I didn't like the look of the failure at 426.80 so I elected to bail with the the proverbial bird in the hand ... well not 1 bird but 230 of 'em. Out at 426.50

Same numbers tomorrow ... 424 and $10 channel.

=========================================
5: MARCH COTTON
=========================================
CTH5 O-.40 HI-.80 LO-.75 CL-.78

Nasty little move got me. I sold 46.75 on what looked like a picture perfect set up. I was stopped out at 46.90 on a 46.87 stop. We dropped $75. You have to love that ... a $75 loss on a trade where I was completely wrong.

I'll use the TT numbers again tomorrow. I will, again, also sell a retest in the 46.80-47.00 area that fails.

=========================================
6: MARCH COCOA
=========================================
COH5 O-20 HI-36 LO-18 CL-27

I bought 1 at 1523 with a stop at 1513 ... just below the former double top. If it broke 15 after yesterday's action and this morning's open I wanted to be gone, gone, gone. Although I had a target of 1580-1600 from TT it was pretty apparent we needed to start protecting this trade from 1555 on up. When we failed at 1574 I brought the stop to 1567 and was stopped out at 65. We picked up $420

We ended the day at 1575. I will buy either a break above 1580 or a retest of 1560 that fails and starts back higher. 1553 is the stop on the retest and 1573 on the break above 1580. I don't think we can do better than 1650 right now. I'll get real tight as we approach that level.

=========================================
7: MARCH CORN
=========================================
CH5 O=1.97 1/4 HI=1.99 3/4 LO=1.97 CL=1.99

We started the day long from 1.98 1/2. I rolled the stop to 1.99 3/4 when we broke above 2.00 and got stopped there for $62.

Tomorrow I'll buy a retest of 1.97 that fails and heads higher or I will buy a break above 2.02 1/2.

Remember, we're scalping here. If you think you are going to buy a bottom here and catch the beginning of a big move north more than likely you will get whipsawed for 10-20 cents or more long before the great break out occurs. Play it tight, take small profits and you'll pick up 10-20 cents instead of dumping that amount.

=========================================
8: MARCH WHEAT
=========================================
WH5 O=2.98 HI=2.99 3/4 LO=2.95 CL=2.95 1/4

It leapfrogged us ... nothing done. Big failure a little later.

I will buy anything under 2.96 tomorrow with a tight 2.94 3/4 stop. Same dynamic as Corn is at work here. Be a scalper or risk the consequences.

=========================================
=========================================
Market Alert is a publication of Traders Helping Traders.net
http://www.tradershelpingtraders.net
[email protected]

Copyright (c) 2005 Traders Helping Traders.net.
=========================================