Erich's Trades for Thursday, January 27th 2005
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Erich's Update for Thursday, January 27, 2005
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The Subscribers got these last night for today's market action...Test Drivers get theirs after the close.
Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com
"Perseverance is the hard work you do after you get tired of doing the hard work you already did." - Newt Gingrich
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1: MARCH CORN
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CH5 O-9 1/2 HI-0 3/4 LO-8 1/2 CL-8 3/4
Got a bit of a reaction to the 201 resistance today but not enough to get me short tomorrow. If you wanted to be more aggressive on this trade you could certainly sell below today's low; however I'm going to hold off for a confirmation tomorrow.
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2: MARCH COTTON
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CTH5 O-82 HI-35 LO-60 CL-78
Just another whacky day in the Cotton market as prices made a run at our entry, but came up short. Good thing too as prices made a pretty low close which would have whipsawed the trade.
RSI is falling off a bit as well which makes me think we'll see lower prices tomorrow, but I'll stick with the long side for one more day. If prices do fall off we can look at selling support.
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3: MARCH BEAN OIL
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BOH5 O-69 HI-74 LO-50 CL-52
Here we go again. Bean Oil gave us a reaction to the resistance today as well as a hook in the RSI indicator. We're VERY close to the support on the contract lows at 1941, and this could turn the market back tomorrow, so consider selling below here if you want to take some of the risk out of the trade.
Otherwise I'll sell below today's low and look to cover the trade above the high. Watching the opening price - we don't want the market gapping us!
*SELL March Bean Oil at 1946 *Stop 1976 *Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract *Profit Target: 1852 *Approximate Profit Potential: $564 per contract *RRR: 3:1 *Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O-65 HI-97 LO-17 CL-32
A higher day for Cattle today, but bearish overall as prices closed fairly low. Still looking for a reaction to resistance before selling this market again.
Nothing here tomorrow.
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5: MARCH COCOA
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CCH5 O-22 HI-83 LO-20 CL-75
Cocoa took off like a rocket today. I'm not sure what's behind the rally, but I'll be sure to look into it later. Prices blew right through the 1550 resistance and now we're on the sidelines waiting for our next entry signal but I won't be doing anything tomorrow.
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6: MARCH WHEAT
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WH5 O-8 HI-9 3/4 LO-5 CL-5 1/4
More resistance at 295 and 299 today. I'm really tempted to sell wheat tomorrow below 295, especially since we're very near to a bounce off the RSI trendline; however I'll resist and look to sell below the contract low as per the weekend plan.
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7: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDH5 O-77 HI-45 LO-77 CL-03
The CD held up on the 8145 resistance again today as prices consolidated a bit after yesterday's big decline. We've got the market cornered now (well, almost) and I'll run with the short trade again tomorrow. If we see a bullish break then we'll revert back to the weekend buy.
*SELL March Canadian Dollar at 8053 *Stop 8086 *Approximate Risk Exposure: $330 per contract *Profit Target: 7925 (first target) *Approximate Profit Potential: $1280 per contract *RRR: 3 1/2:1 *Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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8: MARCH SILVER
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SIH5 Og0 HIh5 LOf9.5 CLh0.5
Silver bounced off the RSI trendline today as support seemed to hold - at least for the time being. I'll run with the short trade again tomorrow, but won't be too surprised if we see a bit of a rally, but I'm still not that comfortable buying the market - yet.
*SELL March Silver at 667 *Stop 673.5 *Approximate Risk Exposure: $325 per contract *Profit Target: 641.5 *Approximate Profit Potential: $1275 per contract *RRR: 3 1/2:1 *Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O–.325 HI–.350 LO–.295 CL–.30
Same problem in the ED today as yesterday, namely that there isn't enough profit potential either long or short before encountering significant resistance to make a trade worthwhile.
Too bad too since RSI is at a test point and an ideal time to buy/sell. Think I'll just watch for now.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market tomorrow.
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