Post Easter and Passover Trading – the data hits the fan Monday Morning

Big Weekend Edition

easter-eggBig Weekend Edition for April 20th, 2014

Happy Easter and Passover everyone! I trust everyone had a nice holiday? Mine was very enjoyable. Thanks for asking. Quiet actually. Our daughter and grandson had other commitments so we “laid low” and enjoyed the solitude.

A little trivia for you about the Easter/Passover week, a lot of people don’t realize that it is the same Holiday (sort of). In fact, English is one of the few languages where the word “Easter” is not some version of the word “Passover”.

This week also marks the end of the first week of the 2014 Profit Run and I’m pleased to say we posted a pretty good number for the week. Omar Eltouky is doing a Forex Profit Run and I’m doing the Futures markets. You can follow along on the Futures and Forex Profit Run at the Indicator Warehouse blog.

With the three day Holiday weekend we need to be careful coming back to the markets on Monday. There will be a lot of orders and information hitting the trading floor first thing Monday morning, so my advice would be to not be in too much of a hurry to start new positions this week until the dust settles.

Enjoy this week’s issue,

Erich

erich@supportandresistance.com

Papertrades

Currencies Market Overview

British Pound

I was going to give the Pound a little extra time before I placed a trade; however the market finished the week nearly Perfect when it signaled resistance back at the contract highs. This Flinch by the market shows us active SELLing and price sensitivity to this price region. What does that mean? It means that a move above the resistance will likely force SELLers to exit their positions. And when SELLers exit they have to BUY to do so.

If the June British Pound opens at or below 16830
BUY 2 June British Pound at 16840 (stop)(day)
If filled: Exit Stop: 16690 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $937 per contract
Profit Target: 17000 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $1000 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate

BritishPoundChart-315

Energies Market Overview

Mini – Natural Gas

Bought Natural Gas off Thursday inventory rally. We bought the market near the high, after it broke resistance, but the good news is the market finished strong and is likely to continue higher this week as well. Let’s hope the Bulls follow through better than the Bears.

CONTINUATION of Long 2 May Natural Gas at 4720 (April 17)
Exit Stop: 4430 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $2900 per contract
Profit Target: 5000 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $2800 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate

Natural Gas Chart

Financials/Indices Market Overview

NASDAQ

Watch List – the NQ (YM and ES) is slowing it’s recent rally which makes me think it’s due for another push lower very soon, probably this week.

Grains Market Overview

Corn

Watch List – July Corn is beginning to look a little more Bullish again. Confirmed support might turn me into a BUYer this week.

Soybeans

Beans made a substantial Profit Taking reversal last Thursday, but that was to be expected given the Holiday weekend. I’m hoping to see the Bulls step up early this week to kick start the market; otherwise we’ll likely see a run to support. The May contract is due to expire this week, so I’m going to Pinch the market on Monday and trail our stops just below Thursday’s low.

CONTINUATION of Long 2 May Soybeans at 1485 (April 15)
Exit Stop: 1500 (stop)(GTC)
Approximate Risk: $0 per contract
Profit Target: 1550 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $3250 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate

Soybeans Chart

Wheat

Watch List – Wheat prices are at a tipping point. If they rally this week, they should continue higher; however if they fall off, then the Bears are likely to drive the market much lower. Right now I’m thinking UP, but we’ll see how the week starts.

Meats Market Overview FLAT

Metals Market Overview

Gold

Is it too early to set up a Gold SELL? I don’t want to SELL until we get below the previous support however. This is going to leave a little bit of money on the table risk-wise; however I think it’s the better course of action for this market. Remember there is a mini-Gold market available if you want to risk less.

If June Gold opens at or above 1276.0
SELL 2 June Gold at 1275.0 (stop)(day)
If filled: Exit Stop: $2700 per contract
Profit Target: 1250.0 (limit)(GTC)
Approximate Profit: $2500 per contract
Degree of Risk: Moderate

GoldChart-315

Softs Market Overview

Sugar

Ouch! Sugar backed up in a big way before the weekend hitting our trailing stops. Nothing new here for Monday.

COMPLETION of Short July Sugar from 1660 (April 15)
Exit Stop: 1750 (April 17)
Approximate Loss: $1008 per contract

The $10,000 Experiment

Right now it looks as though it was a good idea to bring in our profit and trailing stop before the weekend. We caught a break as the market rallied through the overnight, hitting our Good-Till-Cancelled Profit Target before the morning’s reversal. This allowed us to pick up an extra $100, which was a very nice way to start the weekend.

Nothing new for Monday.

COMPLETION of Long 1 mini May Soybeans at 1485 (April 16)
Profit Target: 1525 (April 17)
Trade Profit: $500